by proldic » Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:17 pm
Milton: "Why is the greatest of free communities reduced to Hobson's choice?" <br><br>"[Vannevar Bush] never flatly refused to satisfy a politician's curiosity, but rather dared him to comprehend the technical and military issues. Most politicos wisely kept their mouths shut." (From a review of "Endless Frontier" by G. Pascal Zachary, Wall Street Journal, 10/21/97) <br><br>Brian Salter:<br><br>“Predictions are currently running rampant in the media and the internet that we are in for an imminent repeat of the 1973 "oil shock". What few mention, however, is that there is convincing evidence the 1973 oil shock was an entirely manufactured affair, planned by the transatlantic finanical elite and the "Seven Sisters" oil cartel (with Henry Kissinger as facilitator) to force up prices, which would then subsequently be blamed on OPEC, an oil "shortage", or both. In light of this, the similarities between the situation today and three decades ago take on a different meaning...”<br><br>“ After August 1971, dominant US policy under White House National Security Adviser Henry A. Kissinger was to control, not to develop, economies throughout the world. US policy officials probably began calling themselves "neo-Malthusians." Population reduction in developing nations, rather than technology transfer and industrial growth strategies, became the dominating priority during the 1970s, yet another throwback to nineteenth-century British colonial thinking…”<br><br>“ In 1973, the powerful men grouped around Bilderberg decided to launch a colossal assault against industrial growth in the world…In order to do this, they determined to use their most prized weapon -- control of the world's oil flows…”<br><br>“ The social impact of the oil embargo on the United States in late 1973 could be described as panic. Throughout 1972 and early 1973, the large multinational oil companies, led by Exxon, pursued a curious policy of creating short domestic supply of crude oil. They were allowed to do so under a series of decisions made by President Nixon on advice of his aides. When the embargo hit in November 1973, therefore, the impact could not have been more dramatic. By October 1973, domestic US stocks of crude oil were already at alarmingly low levels. The OPEC embargo triggered the public into panic purchases of gasoline, calls for rationing, endless gas lines, and a sharp economic recession. The most severe impact of the oil crisis hit the United States' largest city, New York. Germany's government imposed an emergency ban on Sunday driving in a desperate effort to save imported oil costs. By June 1974, the effects of the oil crisis contributed to [banking collapse] and a crisis in the D-mark as a result. Germany's imported oil costs increased by staggering 17 billion D-marks in 1974, with a half-million people reckoned to be unemployed because of the oil shock…Inflation levels reached an alarming 8%…The shock effects of a sudden 400% increase in the price of Germany's basic energy feedstock were devastating to industry, transport, and agriculture. Keystone industries such as steel, shipbuilding, and chemicals all went into a deep crisis at this time as a result of the oil shock..” <br>“ But the economic impact on the developing economies of the world -- the impact of an overnight price increase of 400% in their primary energy source was staggering. The vast majority of the world's less-developed economies, without significant domestic oil resources, were suddenly confronted with an unexpected and unpayable 400% increase in costs of energy imports, to say nothing of costs of chemicals and fertilizers for agriculture derived from petroleum. During this time, commentators began speaking of "triage," the wartime idea of survival of the fittest, and introduced the vocabulary of "Third World" and "Fourth World" (the non-OPEC countries)…” <br><br>“ In 1973, India had a positive balance of trade, a healthy situation for a developing economy.By 1974, India had total foreign exchange reserves of $629 millions with which to pay -- in dollars -- an annual oil import bill of almost double that or $1,241 million. In 1974, Sudan, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Africa and Latin America country after country was faced with gaping deficits in its balance of payments. As a whole, over 1974 developing countries incurred a total trade deficit of $35 billion according to the IMF, a colossal sum in that day, and, not surprisingly, a deficit precisely 4 times as large as in 1973, or just in proportion to the oil price increase…” <br><br>“ Following the several years of strong industrial and trade growth of the early 1970s, the severe drop in industrial activity throughout the world economy in 1974-75 was greater than any such decline since the war. But, while Kissinger's 1973-74 oil shock had a devastating impact on world industrial growth, it was an enormous benefit for certain established interests -- the major New York and London banks, and the Seven Sister oil multinationals in the US and Britain. Exxon replaced General Motors as the largest American corporation in gross revenues by 1974. Her sisters were not far behind, including Mobil, Texaco, Chevron and Gulf…” <br><br>“ Is it likely, however, that a bunch of Texas wildcatters could be driving US policy to hoard Middle East oil? Certainly not -- these matters are decided by much more important criteria. In addition to the critical support of Wall Street and London's speculative financial empires offered by control of the oil market…resource monopolies & forced shortages are also ultimately about geopolitical world control, and in the context of current events, this means in particular control of the Eurasian landmass, and that in turn means keeping a lid on the economic growth of geopolitical competitors…who threaten…globalists with their ultimate nightmare: a ‘multipolar’ world …preventing this outcome is the obsession of the new Great Game strategists like Brzezinski (who, I would note, has participated in recent years in the neo-Malthusian ‘State of the World’ conferences organized by Mikhail Gorbachev)…”<br>It is undeniable that the PO movement shares a common message. It is: <br> <br>1.) Oil is a 'fossil fuel' - a finite, non-renewable resource created at a specific time in the earth's history <br>2.) It has reached it's "peak" as defined by the Hubbert Curve, and it's all downhill from here <br>3.) Two things drive this: <br>a. Our western "lifestyle" <br>b. Overpopulation (of the developing world - remember: who's giving birth? Whose birth rates are declining?)<br> 4.) This means the end of society "as we know it" <br> 5.) No combination of alternatives, conservation, or political reform will save us <br> 6.) We should welcome "downsizing" by localizing, building "lifeboats" and "arks", and abandoning hope for national governance <br> 7 ) If we are going to have any chance of surviving as a species, we must embrace a radical program of deindustrialization and population control now. <br> <br>If you read the PO literature, you would not be able to deny this. <br><br>The effect of the "Peak Oil" meme, which hit really hard post-9/11, is de-politicizing. It's<br>created a "head for the hills" mentality, which is exactly what the system wants. Furthermore, it creates a "blame each other" attitude. "We" Americans, or "the American lifestyle" is to blame for the world's problems, instead of the transnational fascists!<br><br>"Peak Oil" is no outsider “meme”. As someone here noted, just look at headlines in mainstream publications- like National Geographic and Newsweek, and at<br>articles in the L.A. Times, etc. Recently I saw a "Cliff Bar" quiz that asked "How many years do scientists estimate there are before demand for<br>oil bypasses supply? Answer: 5" It's everywhere! The people seriously challenging "Peak Oil" are absolutely outsiders. <br><br>To understand the truth of PO, we must really grasp the deeper political truth behind the oil “shortages” of the past. The big picture: how a continuing conspiracy involving the energy cartels in the service of the capitalist NWO, purposefully manipulates the primary fuel for the engine of development in the world - for super-profits, for fear-control, for “forced underdevelopment”, to create the “third world”, to suppress “enemy” governments, and - at its core – to murder millions of democracy-demanding poor people. <br><br>Domestically, the anti-PO stance is a (not so) small part of a bigger picture – an argument about how the modern North American left has been effectively purged of any real class-based consciousness, largely co-opted by elite foundations, and continuously misled into counter-intuitive distractions/red herrings. Now the left is being deliberately led again – from within – into specific beliefs, decisions, and actions.<br><br>Many upper-middle class Americans welcome “downsizing”. And why not think its good? After all, the Peak Oil movement is encouraging them to accept a future in which working people cannot afford to own their own homes, and as part of the upper-class they will have no responsibility to do anything about it <br><br>In fact the Peak Oil crowd want working folks in North America to think they’ve been foolish these last fifty years to think we've deserved that. (The End of Suburbia makes a point of mentioning that Post-WWII America represented a "blip on the economic radar" as a time in which "plumbers and dry-wallwers could afford their own homes".) After all, it was just these greedy, ignorant Americans with their gas-guzzlers and fancy vacations - and medical care - that got us into to this mess. <br><br>Think about the economic situation we're in: people are getting nervous, and the system needs something for them to blame when the crash comes - which it will. When they can't afford to heat their houses, or have medical insurance, or send their kids to college. Think about the fact that a perceived need for oil supports the military ambitions of the current administration. Moreover, an "economy imperiled by the rising prices, along with the obvious rising dependency" is the perfect cover for an economy that has been intentionally ruined, not just by corporate greed per se, but through an organized effort to break the revolutionary spirit of the working class in the U.S. through poverty and fear. <br><br>Salter:<br>“A more perceptive analysis would note that Americans have been systematically duped into energy-wasting habits by years of low oil prices and cheap credit, and that the currently rising energy prices create a de facto taxation or wealth transfer, which is perfectly in accord with the long-term policies of de-industrialization and looting of the middle class that are typified by policies like the phony ‘oil shock’ of the ‘70’s...”<br><br>Believing that widespread use of oil is not environmentally-sustainable does not mean that the truth about contrived shortages, suppressed production, and the existence of abiotic oil is irrelevant to the debate. After all, a petroleum industry orthodoxy has dominated the academia (oil geologists specifically) for decades. The PO movement is clearly part of that. And now they go out of their way to portray themselves as outsiders. <br><br>Salter: <br>“With promotion from someone like Bush energy advisor Matthew Simmons, and with coverage exploding in the mainstream media, the idea of imminent ‘peak oil’ does not exactly qualify as a ‘renegade’ point of view. In light of this, caution and skepticism are due…” <br><br>One person who wrote an important early article revealing the forces behind PO propaganda was the late Walt Sheasby, a Green Party member from California. In the article, The Coming Panic Over the End of Oil: Coming to a Ballot Box Near You , Sheasby wrote: <br>“…This much is known…the loudest warnings about the predicted peak of world oil production came from Petroconsultants…ASPO has Associate members like Halliburton and financial sponsors like Schlumberger…There is no reason for ecologists to join debates over the…decline of world oil production, which should be bracketed as irrelevant to the socio-political imperative of democratizing the economy and creating a new energy infrastructure that is based on post-capitalist norms…We must find ways of making the urgency of that transformation a motivation in people's lives…The dangers posed by global capitalism to human life and nature itself are all too real. We need to reject the posing of imminent danger as panic, as Chicken Little's alarm over the Falling Sky…”<br><br> Dave McGowan challenges the fundamental lack of reasoning underpinning the PO “meme”:<br> “…unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena. So which theory have we in the West, in our infinite wisdom, chosen to embrace? Why, the fundamentally absurd 'Fossil Fuel' theory, of course -- the same theory that the 'Peak Oil' doomsday warnings are based on...”<br><br>The entire argument is enhanced by common-sense, such as when McGowan writes: <br>“…although underground coal fires are a common phenomenon, most people are completely unaware that they occur…At any given time, thousands of coal veins are ablaze around the world. In China's northwestern province of Xinjiang alone, there are currently about 2,000 underground coal fires burning. Indonesia currently hosts as many as 1,000. Some of these fires have been burning for thousands of years; Burning Mountain Nature Reserve, for example, in New South Wales, Australia, has been aflame for an estimated 5,500 years…many of the fires burning today are due to entirely natural causes. New Scientist noted, in February 2003, that "coal seam fires have occurred spontaneously far back into geological history." ("Wild Coal Fires are a 'Global Catastrophe'," New Scientist, February 14, 2003) Radio Nederland added that "Geological evidence from China suggests that underground coal fires have been occurring naturally for at least one million years." (Anne Blair Gould "Underground Fires Stoke Global Warming," Radio Nederland, March 10, 2003)…”<br>“And how much coal, you may be wondering, do these fires consume annually? No one can say with any certainty, but it is estimated that in China alone, some 200 million tons of coal go up in smoke every year. That's a hell of a lot of coal. More coal than China exports, in fact. In other words, the world's leading coal exporter loses more coal to underground fires than it produces for export….”<br><br>" ‘Very interesting’ you say, ‘but what does any of this have to do with Peak Oil?’ Glad you asked. Coal is, you see, a member of the same hydrocarbon family as oil and natural gas, and it is, like gas and oil, claimed to be a 'fossil fuel' created in finite, non-renewable quantities at a specific time in the earth's history …And yet this allegedly precious and limited resource has been burning off at the rate of millions of tons per year, year in and year out, for at least a million years, and probably much longer…”<br><br>“ This raises, in my mind at least, one very obvious question: how is it possible that nature has been taking an extremely heavy toll on the globe's 'fossil fuels' for hundreds of thousands of years (at the very least), without depleting the reserves that were supposedly created long, long ago; and yet man, who has been extracting and burning 'fossil fuels' for the mere blink of an eye, geologically speaking, has managed to nearly strip the planet clean?..”<br><br>“ Is it not perfectly clear that that is a proposition that is absurd on its face -- so much so that it is remarkable that the 'fossil fuel' myth has passed muster for as long as it has? Nevertheless, that entirely illogical myth is the cornerstone on which an even bigger lie - the myth of 'Peak Oil' - is built. Go figure….”<br><br>“…Taken together, what [proponents of the theory of peak oil are saying], essentially, is: ‘Well, okay, we quite likely have been lied to for decades about oil being a non-renewable resource. And, sure, we have been deliberately misled about who is really promoting this whole notion of Peak Oil. And, yes, the story did largely originate with the same folks who told some real whoppers about 9-11, and Iraq, and lots of other things. And no, us peasants don't really have any way of independently verifying any of the oil industry's figures, so we really have no idea how much oil is out there. And, okay, I guess the notion of 'Peak Oil' could be seen as playing into the Bush administration's hands. But even so, shouldn't we assume that 'Peak Oil' is real? And even if it isn't real, isn't it possible that the oil industry has hypnotized itself into thinking that it is real, so shouldn't we therefore act as though it is real, even if it isn't?’’,,,”<br><br>“ I guess I just view the world a little differently, because the first question that comes to my mind is: why in the world would anyone conclude that we are not being lied to? Clearly there is a reason for the deception. Why have we long been taught that oil is a 'fossil fuel' if it is not? That is not some random lie… The deception surrounding the origins of oil is not random; rather, it serves a very specific purpose -- creating the impression that oil is a non-renewable, and therefore inherently scarce, resource. So if we are to acknowledge that we have been misled about oil being a non-renewable resource, why would we automatically assume that it is nevertheless still scarce?..” <br><br>“Many have suggested that to prove 'Peak Oil' isn't real, it must be proven that replenishment rates exceed consumption rates. But how could this possibly be proven? How is it possible to ascertain the rate at which oil is generated and replenished when the only hard data comes from an industry that doesn't acknowledge that oil is generated at all?..”<br><br>“All of the figures thrown around in the debate over 'Peak Oil' come from the petroleum industry. And all of those figures are based on the notion of oil as a static resource…How do those figures have any credibility? How, for that matter, does the oil industry itself have any credibility?..” <br><br>“ Aren't these the same folks, after all, who have worked hand-in-hand with the CIA for decades to destabilize foreign governments, commit egregious human rights violations, and brutally rape the environment? Or is that a different oil industry? The one I am thinking of was created by a guy by the name of Rockefeller…He basically created the petroleum industry, and he held monopoly control of it for a pretty fair amount of time...” <br><br>“ I mention that because it occurs to me that if you were to compose a list of people who might be powerful enough to create an entire global industry based on a fiction, the name Rockefeller would probably be very near the top of that list. The petroleum industry is now, as it has always been, essentially an enormous, global criminal enterprise. [Supporters of the theory of Peak Oil] acknowledged that that industry of ‘evil murderous cartel bastards’ has ‘lied about shortages in the past to create crises.’ And yet now, when the stakes are considerably higher, [they] seem to suggest that we should accept the industry's pronouncements as the truth. I find such a stance difficult to understand...” <br><br>Campbell’s Cheerleaders<br><br>---Matt Simmons---<br>Cheney adviser Mathew Simmons is an “oilianaire” handling an investment portfolio of approximately $56 billion. He sits on the board of Kerr-McGee, a major uranium, oil, and gas producer (and the murderers of anti-nuke activist Karen Silkwood). He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Simmons insists that the US government is very worried about oil depletion. However, Cheney’s secretive National Energy Policy Development Group refused to make its records of closed-door meetings with industry executives public…Simmons apparently wants to make the public's fear of Peak Oil the drum beat, although a more enlightened energy policy, he worries, "is going to take a while." Simmons believes that the reason oil reserves have fallen so far behind oil and gas consumption is: "We drill far less wells. We also stopped doing most genuine exploration." In fact, Simmons believes higher oil prices are essential, since: <br>"The higher the cost, the more you can extend, recovering more and more of the harder and harder to get resources."<br><br>---Michael Klare---<br>In Blood and Oil, he says that the cost of conversion to a post-petroleum economy in the US will run into the hundreds of billions of dollars, and this money should come from a gas tax, particularly aimed at cars and light trucks. This is a right-wing, regressive tax, the burden of which falls on the working class and small businesses - Klare cites farmers and truckers. He calls for “restraint” and “self-discipline”, saying: <br>“Every year, the citizens of this country consume more oil than the year before, and their appetite shows no signs of abating. Convincing people to consume less, and to begin preparing for the day of petroleum scarcity will no doubt be a formidable task.” <br><br>Like the other PO’ers, he lays the blame on the “citizen” - on suburbia and the wasteful American “lifestyle”. He never mentions how industry - particularly the military-industrial complex - is by far the biggest user/waster of oil. He never mentions how they benefit from stacked public utility control boards, regressive tax structures, and waste-encouraging wholesale power rates. In fact, he writes off any chance of forcing a reduction from industrial users in western countries (p. 193). <br><br>Interested in how the political views of PO’ers like Klare relate to their interpretation of the science? As revealed in Blood and Oil and Resource Wars, Klare’s geopolitical analysis is seriously flawed. His view of history seems to be colored more by Spencer Abraham, Brzezinski, Haig, et al, than with any leftist movement. His treatment of Russia and the former Soviet Union in particular is typical of the neutered, value-free historical revisionism of most US academia. He writes: “The Soviets once wielded considerable influence (in Iraq)...Soviet officials were frequent visitors to Saddam Hussein’s Bagdhad, and the USSR provided Iraq with the lion’s share of it’s military equipment…although (Russian relations with Iraq) are not as cordial as they were with the Baathist regime in Bagdhad .” <br><br>He’s basically saying that Russia was the Iraqi Baath Party’s biggest supporter. This is a total lie. The fact is that it was the CIA that was the primary benefactor supporter of the Baath party, going so far as to give Hussein lists of communists and political opponents to assassinate. They directly supported him in his successful coup against a liberal-nationalist government in ‘59. The CIA propped him up the whole way – not the Soviets. Plus they provided a huge amount of material for biochem weaponry through dual-use agricultural loans right up to the eve of the first gulf war. <br><br>In three sentences Klare essentially marginalizes wind and solar, the most realistic sources of mass-energy: “…wind, solar…all have their advantages and disadvantages. Wind power is commercially viable in areas where the winds are steady and giant windmills do not interfere with other activities or land uses; but the most eligible locations lie in the extreme north, far from population and industrial centers. Solar energy is plentiful, and the technology to capture it well-developed – but the price is high.”<br><br>People with any understanding of history would instantly recognize these arguments as repetitions of old industry-inspired arguments regarding wind and solar. Contrary to his implication, the areas where wind is steady enough to generate significant power are not few and far between. In fact, large areas of the midwest, the southwest, New England, and the west coast are all perfectly suited for mass wind power. His picture of “giant windmills” interfering with our lives would be laughable if it wasn’t so often repeated. The nuclear and oil polluters have been crying for years about ugly solar farms, and big, bad windmills - suddenly becoming environmentalists when they talk about the poor birds who would be chopped up by windmills and the beautiful country land that would have to be developed. Klare implies that wind farms in the north couldn’t transmit power to population centers. What about the fact that much of our electrical power is coming from massive hydroelectric projects in northern Canada right now? He never mentions why the price of solar/photovoltaic technology is so high. <br><br>If he was a really credible academic or a genuine “leftist” (he’s the Director of the College Peace Studies Program) he would be writing about the conspiracy to suppress solar/photovoltaic technology by the energy cartels. Read Who Owns the Sun by Berman and O’Connor, of which Publisher’s Weekly said: <br>“Politicians, utility companies and even many mainstream environmental groups come under attack for either their lack of leadership on this issue or for their downright hostility to solar possibilities. The authors argue convincingly that the impediment to widespread adoption…is no longer technological but rather the fear that private utility companies' profit margins will suffer. Numerous examples of the ways in which renewable energy advances have been sabotaged by politicians and utilities are presented, as are a wide array of solutions.”<br><br>Klare: “Wind, solar - all have their advantages and disadvantages. Wind power<br>is commercially viable in areas where the winds are steady and giant<br>windmills do not interfere with other activities or land uses; but the<br>most eligible locations lie in the extreme north, far from population<br>and industrial centers. Solar energy is plentiful, and the technology<br>to capture it well-developed - but the price is high..”<br>“…tell me, how are you going to run 18-wheelers on solar power?” <br> <br>He chooses not to talk about the fact that this country once had a massive rail infrastructure for transportation of goods and mass-transit that was dismantled by the oil and auto industries. Nor does he mention the conspiracy by General Motors and big oil to buy up all the train tracks, downsize the rail infrastructure, and replace it with the buses and trucks they manufactured.<br> <br>Rail transport is cheaper and much more efficient then trucks. He doesn’t talk about how electric light rail meets the transportation and mass-transit needs of many countries now. You can fit the contents of three 18-wheelers into one freight car. That's how you "run 18-wheelers on solar power".<br> <br>And let's just remind ourselves – I’m saying we're not really running out of oil. It's the environmental and dependency problems associated with oil and gas that should be leading us to a gradual transition to a socialist "post-petroleum" economy. In a post-capitalist economy we will still need to transport vegetables from California to New York, and there will still be truck transport for many years as well.<br><br>Summing up Klare:<br> <br>1.) Klare is writing about energy politics and the transition to a post-petroleum economy, and he offers suggestions as to how our society ought to proceed on that path<br> 2.) His geopolitical view posits the US system as a relatively benign counter-balance to Soviet (Russian) influence<br> 3.) He lies directly to his readers about who supported Hussein.<br> 4.) He repeats obvious industry canards about alternative energy<br> 5.) His major call for change is a gas tax on cars and light trucks - which is a regressive tax<br>6.) He writes off any chance of forcing concessions from industrial users of power in the US - not even mentioning the MIC<br> <br>---Richard Heinberg---<br>Author of PO books such as “The Party’s Over”, and “Power Down”, Heinberg admits that of all the alternatives, the case for wind is "probably the most compelling", and says "theoretically" a great deal of energy can be derived from wind, then he proceeds to makes the claim "Wind can deliver net energy; the challenge for industrial societies is to scale up production quickly (he says 5x) to avert...economic and social calamity...Meanwhile, most of the energy needs for that undertaking would have to come from dwindling fossil fuels." <br> <br>If we can't see the essentially ridiculous nature of this negative, fear-mongering argument against wind power, we are lost. With all the trillions this society spends on subsidizing oil and nukes, with all the billions in externalities - the so-called resource wars, the pollution and health costs, the billions for pro-industry scientific and academic research (have you ever seen where all the research $ comes from?) - and you tell me we can't afford a 5x increase in the production of turbines???<br> <br> Again, this is a lie. Klare and Heinberg both admit that solar is the most efficient ("it's the cost" says Klare). Yet they refuse to discuss - on purpose- the political implications behind a citizen's movement to force solar and wind development. Even a mainstream source such as Publisher's Weekly - no bastion of radical populism - reveals the obvious truth that people like Heinberg and Klare don't want you to know about. That spoils their doomsday scenario.<br><br>So PO’ers end up sold out to a very big lie: that solar photovoltaic and wind technology, combined with conservation (up to 70% savings just by retro fitting housing stock - Hunter/Lovins) - will never be able to meet the energy demands of our future society. <br><br>cont...<br><br><br><br><br> <p></p><i></i>