Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate (Reuters)

Moderators: DrVolin, 82_28, Elvis, Jeff

Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate (Reuters)

Postby Rigorous Intuition » Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:24 pm

<!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--><br><br> LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - OPEC producer Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officially stated, according to internal Kuwaiti records seen by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW).<br><br>"PIW learns from sources that Kuwait's actual oil reserves, which are officially stated at around 99 billion barrels, or close to 10 percent of the global total, are a good deal lower, according to internal Kuwaiti records," the weekly PIW reported on Friday.<br><br>It said that according to data circulated in Kuwait Oil Co<br><br>(KOC), the upstream arm of state Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Kuwait's remaining proven and non-proven oil reserves are about 48 billion barrels.<br><br>Officials from KOC were not immediately available for comment to Reuters.<br><br>PIW said the official public Kuwaiti figures do not distinguish between proven, probable and possible reserves.<br><br>But it said the data it had seen show that of the current remaining 48 billion barrels of proven and non-proven reserves, only about 24 billion barrels are so far fully proven -- 15 billion in its biggest oilfield Burgan.<br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL20548125&imageid=&cap=">Reuters</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--> <p></p><i></i>
Rigorous Intuition
 
Posts: 1744
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:36 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate (Reuters

Postby yablonsky » Thu Jan 26, 2006 9:34 pm

January 27, 2006<br><br>Great Expectations<br>by Puru Saxena<br>        <br><br>REALITY - The human race is expanding at an alarming rate, which is starting to assert immense pressure on our planet. Global warming, extreme weather patterns, rising geo-political tensions and unrest - these are all symptoms of economic and social stress. Take a look at Figure 1, which shows the explosion in world population and gives us an idea of what lies in our future. At present, world population stands at 6.5 billion and roughly 50% of humans reside in Asia. In 1950, our planet was home to (only) 2.5 billion people, which means that world population exploded by 2.6 times over the past five decades! According to the conservative estimates by the US Census Bureau, our planet will add another billion people in a decade and world population will grow to 9.1 billion by 2050.<br><br>Figure 1: The ongoing human boom!<br><br>Source: US Census Bureau<br><br>As far as demographics are concerned, Europe and Japan have a major problem on their hands. Their population is ageing rapidly, birth rates are extremely low and things are not getting any better. Similarly, the US also faces a major problem as its "Baby Boomers" approach retirement. How will these countries support their retired people? Obviously, their social security and medicare systems will be put to the ultimate test. Perhaps, the new Fed chief - Mr. Helicopter Bernanke will really fly around dropping dollar bills over every household!<br><br>In spite of the above sobering facts, most analysts and "experts" continue to present a rosy economic outlook. The consensus view is that the global economy will do "just fine", oil will drop back to $30, inflation will remain tame and interest-rates will fall. Amidst this widespread optimism, I ask myself "Is the majority expecting too much or am I missing the point in all of this?"<br><br>My own research has convinced me that that in order to get on with the business of living, the rapidly expanding population will need more things over the coming years. Hence, the ongoing bull-market in natural resources, commonly known as commodities. In the future, most of the population growth will come from China and India, where per-capita consumption levels of commodities are extremely depressed and amongst the lowest in the world. As their population and consumption levels continue to increase, you can imagine what is going to happen to the price of commodities!<br><br>LIQUID GOLD - Last month, I stated that the oil correction was coming to an end and recommended taking positions in the energy complex. My timing was based on technical factors but above all, my bullish bias is due to the fundamental factors of supply and demand. Crude oil is in a generational long-term bull-market, which is only going to intensify in the future.<br><br>The good news for energy investors is that human beings can do without most things in life but everybody needs oil to survive. The gooey liquid is used in pretty much everything we consume. Transportation, agriculture (pesticides), power, and plastic - they are all dependent on oil. Put simply, the demand (need) for oil is largely inelastic and doesn't fluctuate a lot due to changes in price. For example - in the 1970's, crude went from $1.5 per barrel to $40 per barrel - an astonishing 2,600% climb; yet (surprisingly) demand for oil increased by roughly 40% over the same period!<br><br>The oil-shocks in the 1970's were politically motivated, hence the shortfall in supply was artificial in nature. On 6 October 1973, the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, Egyptian forces attacked Israel from across the Suez Canal, while at the same time Syrian troops launched a surprise offensive. Israel , with help from the U.S., succeeded in reversing the Arab gains and a cease-fire was concluded in November. But OPEC struck back against the West by imposing an oil embargo on the U.S., while increasing prices by 70% to America's Western European allies. This oil-embargo acted as a catalyst in igniting the oil boom, which lasted throughout the decade and only ended after the Iranian revolution. Thereafter, supplies got restored to normal levels and the oil price fell back.<br><br>There is one important distinction, which every energy investor must consider. In the late 1970's, whereas Saudi Arabia had the capability to ramp up its production in order to meet the growing demand, it may not be able to deliver in the future. During the 1970's oil crisis, Saudi Arabia utilised all of its excess capacity and output peaked at roughly 10 million barrels a day. Today, Saudi Arabia (pumping close to capacity) only manages to produce roughly the same amount of oil as it did in crisis mode in the late 1970's! So, despite what Saudi officials claim in terms of its huge oil reserves, their country (over the past 25 years) has failed to increase its production in any meaningful way. If Matthew Simmons (leading energy adviser) is correct, today, Saudi Arabia does not have the capability to increase production to meet future increases in demand. In fact, according to several geologists, the world's oil-peak is upon us and global oil production will gradually decline each year.<br><br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.safehaven.com/article-4504.htm">www.safehaven.com/article-4504.htm</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--> <p></p><i></i>
yablonsky
 

Re: Kuwait oil reserves only half official estimate (Reuters

Postby dragon » Thu Jan 26, 2006 11:47 pm

<br>One of those estimates is wrong. If the first estimate was wrong, then they either lied or they were not competent enough to know the real situation. So why should we have faith in this pronouncement, given their track record?<br><br><br>Could be that both statements are not accurate. Could be that they were motivated to get production started and lied about the amount of reserves in the first estimate. My gut feeling is that the present statement is farther from the truth, whatever the truth is, than the previous one. This one is made to support the myth of an oil shortage. You know, the "peak oil" scare story that is being passed off as fact now.<br><br><br>The FACT is that this is either number three or number four "oil shortage" scare. The first one was in the early part of the last century, before my time. The last three are within my lifetime. There was an "oil shortage" scare right after WWII, I seem to recall. The one in the 70's was obviously phoney, but the ones who had the power to do something about it were the ones who perpetrated the hoax.<br><br><br>Truth is, the world is floating on a sea of oil, and oil is a renewable resource. It is generated inside the earth, but don't ask me how! :-) I'm not sure how a brown cow turns green grass into white milk, either, but it does. <br><br><br>Oil shortage? Peak oil? They haven't even begun to use the oil they stole from Mogadishu. Remember that war? Or the Falklands oil that they stole from Argentina. Remember that fight? And now I'm hearing noises about the oil bearing sand of [I think it was] Alberta. Enough there to dwarf the Saudi fields, so they say. <br><br><br>They have been beating the drums about this being a non-renewable resource since as far back as I can remember. I'm from Texas, and I remember that the oilmen got congress to give them a 'depletion allowance' based on the 'fact' that oil was non-renewable. Of course, back then, we were being told that it came from compressed dinosaurs. That one made it into the school textbooks. <br><br><br>Not told, or not told in a way that the public can connect the dots, is the story of the intense development of energy resources in good ol' Dick Cheney's stomping ground, Wyoming. The oil bearing sands in Canada is something I've only seen one reference to. The induced drought in central and east Texas was to drive the landowners off so that the oil companies could exploit the energy resources there. That too, was a one-time reference. I think they were after natural gas in that area. Fortunately, the rains came and stopped their HAARP project and that plan fell through. And yes, we at Z-Force Group did have something to do with that, but that's another story. <br><br><br>Does anyone here remember that movie from back in the 70s with George C.Scott as the lead character in the movie version of Steven Segal's book, THE FORMULA? Do you remember how it opened? It was Berlin, near the end of the war, and the two well-groomed uniformed officers were discussion postwar plans. I forget the exact dialogue, but one of them told the other that from now on, there would not be enemies and allies, only customers. Or words to that effect. <br><br><br>And when George C. Scott finally corners an oil company executive in his office, in the course of the interview with him George comes to an important realization, and he says to the oil man after he realizes that they are holding back oil: <br><br><br>"You're not in the oil business. You're in the oil shortage business." <br><br><br>Hey! Guess what? The still are.<br><br><br>Dragon<br><br>Z-Force Group. Arizona's Global Tyranny First Response Team.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br> <p></p><i></i>
dragon
 

Remember the BP saking 18 months

Postby Trifecta » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:56 am

Big stink with the shity of London, bean counter over estimates BP's reserves, stock price falls, everyone points fingers at the nasty bean counter, he later gets an excellent job with other chums, stock price rises again, no more said.<br><br>The oil shortage business is booming, much like the diamond scam, the coal blitz and on and on and on. <p></p><i></i>
User avatar
Trifecta
 
Posts: 1013
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2005 4:20 am
Location: mu, the place in between dualism
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Remember the BP saking 18 months

Postby dragon » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:29 pm

The "peak oil" drama is a mis-direct. Focuses everyone's attention on a non-problem; 'declining oil reserves'. What is really declining is the availability of clean water. So while we are all supposed to be sweating bullets, worrying about $100 oil as it goes past its peak of availability, British Petroleum, sometimes known as "Beyond Petroleum" is moving to privatize [read:control] fresh water sources. Even the Moonies are getting in on the game. Someone else may have the details on that one. My memory of what he bought and where in South America is not clear. <br><br><br>Point is, water is the resource we need to be concerned about. And aware of where TPTB [sometimes known as The Parasites That Be] are taking us. <br><br><br>And I'm sure that solutions for that problem exist in pretty much the same abundance that they do for alternative sources of energy. <br><br><br>And that reminds me of another hidden fact. I heard a story on the news a few months ago from one of the NPR correspondents who had just returned from Singapore. He told about riding on the high speed grav-lev train there. <br><br><br>They have them in Singapore, they have them in the tunnels that connect the underground bases. We don't have them here. Hmmm.........<br><br><br>Dragon<br><br>Z-Force Group. Arizona's Global Tyranny First Response Team.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br> <p></p><i></i>
dragon
 

..

Postby wintler » Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:20 am

<br>Kuwait officially of course quickly rained on the PIW report:<br><br>Kuwait: Oil reserves 'report is not accurate' - Gulf Daily News<br>KUWAIT CITY: A senior Kuwaiti oil official has cast doubt on the accuracy of a report by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) that the Opec producer's oil reserves are only half those officially stated. 'I have no idea where they got this figure from ... I don't think it's accurate,' Farouk Al Zanki, the chairman of state-run Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) said in Kuwait City. ...<br>PIW said the official public Kuwaiti figures do not distinguish between proven, probable and possible reserves. (22 January 2006)<br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=133228&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=28308">www.gulf-daily-news.com/S...ueID=28308</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><br>Anyone who think Kuwait has really been discovering exactly as much oil as its been extracting for thirty years (as official figures pretend) is determined to be deceived. Their need for investment collaboration (reqd to replace depleting wells and sweet light oil refineries) is forcing OPEC and other oil exporters to open up their books, so expect more disappointments. <br><br>See spanish oil co Repsol lost a quarter of its reserves<br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://news.ft.com/cms/s/9e7e60be-8e4f-11da-ae63-0000779e2340.html">news.ft.com/cms/s/9e7e60b...e2340.html</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br>though half that coincidentally hurts Bolivia's nationalisation notions. I'll bet my chickens there will be more write downs this year, as our little finite planet problem comes knocking. Even more than last year:<br>The 4 biggest oil fields in the world are in decline <!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/1/26/9229/79300">www.dailykos.com/storyonl...9229/79300</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><br>If the rest of the OPEC nations that had those miraculous and unproven discoveries in the 80's in fact produce around the Hubbert linearisation, as the stellar <!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/">www.theoildrum.com/</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--> has been testing, then we're looking at production declines of >10% per year shortly after the 'peak'. <br><br> <p></p><i></i>
wintler
 
Posts: 258
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:28 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

..

Postby wintler » Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:50 am

The real news in energy this week is of course the many european nations currently suffering varying degrees of natural gas shortages, in the middle of a freezing winter.<br><br>blogged<br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/26/224055/299">www.theoildrum.com/story/...224055/299</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/25/01816/3853">www.theoildrum.com/story/...01816/3853</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><br>or<br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2006/01/27/003.html">www.themoscowtimes.com/st...7/003.html</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4638566.stm">news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4638566.stm</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2006-01-24-gas-usat_x.htm">www.usatoday.com/money/in...usat_x.htm</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><br>As usual, the still-comfortable-and-warm are relieved from any responsibility to have new thoughts about other peoples problems.<br><br><br> <p></p><i></i>
wintler
 
Posts: 258
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:28 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

..and rubber too

Postby Iroquois » Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:05 am

Dragon, I'm not sure if Peak Oil is merely a mis-direct, but you are right to bring up the issue of the control of the fresh water supply. These crises together fit the same grand pattern of rapid consolidation of everything from news and entertainment media to natural resources and increasing levels of dependence on industrialization to provide the necessities of life.<br><br>Added to the looming water and oil crises, the rubber plantations of SE Asia that provide nearly all of the world's natural rubber were afflicted with a sudden outbreak of the South American leaf blight several years ago. The blight could be held at bay with heavy use of fungicides, which the smaller farms apparently could not afford.<br><br>From The Rubber Industry's Biological Nightmare: <!--EZCODE AUTOLINK START--><a href="http://www.chicomendes.com/rubberjungle/webcast.txt/rj.articles/rubbernightmare.html">www.chicomendes.com/rubbe...tmare.html</a><!--EZCODE AUTOLINK END--><br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>The South American leaf blight, a fungal pestilence so virulent as to have thwarted all efforts to cultivate rubber in its native Amazonian homeland, has reached the shores of Asia.<br><br>In the ensuing weeks, growers try frantically to isolate and contain the outbreak. On the large estates, massive applications of fungicides provide some relief, but on the scattered family farms, source of 80% of the production, the disease proves impossible to control.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>Though, I don't know enough about this industry to know how much of that smaller plantation acreage fell under the control of major corporations and/or other agencies of the wealth-powerful and how much just went fallow.<br><br>From the same article:<br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>Kevin Jones, secretary of the International Rubber Research and Development Board outside London, calls the leaf blight the "AIDS of the rubber industry."<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>Indeed. Maybe a more appropriate title for the article would have been "The Rubber Industry's Biological Warfare".<br> <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=iroquois@rigorousintuition>Iroquois</A> at: 1/28/06 12:06 am<br></i>
Iroquois
 
Posts: 660
Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:47 pm
Location: Michigan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: ..and rubber too

Postby chiggerbit » Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:45 am

If Kuwait had had the oil reserves they claimed, then there would have been no need to slant-drill into Iraqi fields back just before the first Gulf war. <p></p><i></i>
chiggerbit
 
Posts: 8594
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 12:23 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: ..and rubber too

Postby StarmanSkye » Sat Jan 28, 2006 5:30 pm

Chiggerbit said:<br>"If Kuwait had had the oil reserves they claimed, then there would have been no need to slant-drill into Iraqi fields back just before the first Gulf war."<br><br>-- An excellant point. Apparently, Kuwait was encouraged to slant-drill by the US State Dept., who also provided access to the technology.<br><br>"Using equipment bought from National Security Council chief Brent Scowcroft's old company, Kuwait was pumping out some $14-billion worth of oil from underneath Iraqi territory. Even the territory they were drilling from had originally been Iraq's. Slant-drilling is enough to get you shot in Texas, and it's certainly enough to start a war in the Mideast." -- From The CIA's Greatest Hits, Mark Zeperuaer<br><br>Saddam's inability to get any satisfaction from the UN or World Court re: this dispute led to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait --which the US c/o Ambassador Glaspie basically greenlighted.<br><br>And on a related note: Among the International Mercenary community, it's widely known that US Special Forces, and not Saddam's National Guard, sabotaged Kuwait's oil wells, causing the world's biggest environmental disaster oil spill -- further demonizing Saddam and helping to support artifically high prices by keeping millions of barrels of Kuwaiti oil off the world market for several years. And in an ironic twist -- as part of the UN post Gulf War 'settlement', Kuwait was given a large portion of those very Rumallah oil fields.<br><br>Starman<br> <br> <p></p><i></i>
StarmanSkye
 
Posts: 2670
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 11:32 pm
Location: State of Jefferson
Blog: View Blog (0)


Return to Energy Issues

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest