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Re: Chevron Finds Big Oil Field

PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 12:38 am
by yablonsky
<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>the knee-jerk reaction on Wall Street to a formal Peak Oil announcement would instigate the begining of the next Great Depression.<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>that's the ruppert, kunstler, saviner, etc. line. and there is a logic to it. imo formalized housing bubble and associated mortgage backed securties funny business is ahead in line for logic money. who's to say. knee jerk reactions from wallstreet and fear provocation apparently with a spot light on rational worrywarts everywhere!. <br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href=""></a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href=""></a><!--EZCODE LINK END--> <p></p><i></i>

Peak oil theories wrong, says ExxonMobil boss

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:44 am
by JD
Well look at this; "ExxonMobil boss" doesn't believe in peak oil. This is the <!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>establishment</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--> view in the energy industry. DE are you looking for a job at XMC?<br><br><!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong><!--EZCODE UNDERLINE START--><span style="text-decoration:underline">Peak oil theories wrong, says ExxonMobil boss</span><!--EZCODE UNDERLINE END--></strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--><br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href=",23599,20390685-1702,00.html" target="top">,23599,20390685-1702,00.html</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>By Tim Dornin<br><br>September 11, 2006 01:39pm<br><br><br>THE world has an abundant supply of oil, and high petrol prices are just the reality of a globally traded commodity, ExxonMobil Australia chairman Mark Nolan said today.<br><br>Mr Nolan used his speech to the Asia Pacific oil and gas conference in Adelaide today to debunk the theory of peak oil, which suggests oil supplies have peaked and will dwindle over the next 20 years.<br><br>Such predictions, he said, had been around since the 1920s, particularly at times of high oil prices.<br><br>“The fact is that the world has an abundance of oil and there is little question, scientifically, that abundant energy resources exist,” Mr Nolan said.<br><br>“According to the US Geological Survey, the earth currently has more than three trillion barrels of conventional, recoverable oil resources.<br><br>“So far we have produced one trillion.”<br><br>Mr Nolan said the oil industry had always underestimated the extent of global resources and the ability of technology to both extend the life of existing oil and gas fields and find new ones.<br><br>“We should not forget that we can recover almost twice as much oil today as when we first discovered it over 100 years ago,” he said.<br><br>“And when you consider that a further 10 per cent increase in recoverability will deliver 800 billion barrels of oil to our recoverable total, we have every reason to be sure that the end of oil is nowhere in sight.”<br><br>Mr Nolan said that by 2030, conventional fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would still account for 80 per cent of the world's energy requirements.<br><br>But Mr Nolan said it was very difficult to predict what would happen in the future with both crude oil and petrol prices.<br><br>“They are both regionally traded commodities, they are priced by the market, priced by the region,” he said.<br><br>“The fuel price is ultimately driven by the source of the product, which is the crude price, and of course that is traded regionally and internationally.”<br><br>Mr Nolan's comments were endorsed by the president of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Eve Sprunt, who said the proponents of peak oil theory often confused oil reserves with available resources.<br><br>“When you are talking about reserves, you are only talking about a very small fraction of the total resource base,” she said.<br><br>“The reserves are the portion for which the infrastructure is largely in place, the technology is in place and that can be produced at the current oil price.<br><br>“But if you are planning for the long-term energy future of your country you need to understand the resource base.”<br><br>“The whole name of the game is moving resources into the reserves category.”<br><br>Ms Sprunt said high oil prices also presented opportunities such as the viable development of other fuels.<br><br>“It's a time when new alternatives emerge,” she said.<br> <p></p><i></i>

Re: Peak oil theories wrong, says ExxonMobil boss

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:54 am
by Dreams End
Nah...I wouldn't want to have to compete with your job at <!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="">Chevron's Peak OIl PR campaign.</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Nice try. <p></p><i></i>

Yeah, nice try.....

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:07 am
by JD
Oh yeah; Chevron is a big peak oil advocate. Nice try indeed. At least you have a sense of humour!<br><br>I got to this from the link provided - hardly sounds like a "peak oil campaign" to my eyes! <br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em><!--EZCODE BOLD START--><strong>Oil and Gas</strong><!--EZCODE BOLD END--></em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>Oil and gas currently provide more than half of the world's energy supply, and according to the International Energy Agency, they—along with coal—will continue to be the major sources of energy well into the 21st century.6 OPEC provides about 40% of the world's oil, although its share is slated to grow. While output of conventional oil and gas from areas like Russia and the Caspian region could rise, North America and the North Sea are expected to decline gradually.7</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>Over the longer term, where oil and gas are found and in what form will undergo a transformation. Where costs were once prohibitive, energy companies are using new technologies to extract oil and gas from existing reservoirs.8 And offshore technologies are allowing companies to find and extract oil and gas in deep ocean water—a location that was considered inaccessible just a few years ago.9 Fossil fuels also exist in unconventional forms—hydrocarbons contained in oil-sands, and even shale are believed to have more energy content than all the oil in Saudi Arabia.10 The catch is that it may currently take more energy and may cost more to extract and produce oil from some of these unconventional forms than would be gained.</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>Then there's natural gas. Getting natural gas to market takes time and investment. But gas is a cleaner source of energy than oil or coal, and emits fewer greenhouse gases.11 And natural gas will only increase in significance. Demand for gas is projected to grow 2.8 % annually through 2025,12 somewhat faster than demand for oil.</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="" target="top"></a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br>Seriously, take it from someone in the industry, Peak Oil is still an idea outside the mainstream oil and gas industry.<br><br>PS - the Chevron statement of challenges in their website is actually pretty well stated and something I agree with. I differ in my thinking in that the situation is worse than Chevron is portraying, and conservation is much, MUCH more important - note Chevron doesn't even bring it up! Can't advocate demand reduction now can we........<br> <p></p><i></i>

Re: Yeah, nice try.....

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:19 am
by Dreams End
<!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr>"One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over."<hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>I'll figure this peak oil thing out one of these days. Thought that's what it meant. <p></p><i></i>

Re: Peak oil theories wrong, says ExxonMobil boss

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:33 am
by wintler
<br>The discovery (first drilled in 2004) MIGHT be 3-15 bil barrels, or a lot less (see Shell's triple restatement to see how big oils books make Enron look good). Estimating recoverable oil from two test wells is purely for the headlines and insider trading.<br><br>They MIGHT be able to extract the oil, whch has never been done before in such a setting. Offshore oil is usually pumped ashore as tankers are expensive and accident prone, but Jack 2 is a long way from existing pipes and associated infrastructure, so there are real questions about whether it will ever be viable to build the capital reqd. They also don't yet know how they'd anchor a rig in such deep water. Which in the increasingly hurricane prone Gulf of Mexico, is a challenge of no little significance.<br><br>With US oil production continuing to fall, by the time the Jack field is tapped (assuming it is tapped, and hurricanes don't scramble the works, it wont be before 2009, 2012+ some say) its production is likely to little more than slow the fall.<br><br>Oh, and only another 5 oil fields of similar size (last one found ten years ago) have to be found this year to get back on track with the USGS 2000 forecast that salesmen (Exxon/MSNBC/WhiteHouse/share traders) swear is 'fact' (eg. see the ExxonMobil exec in article above).<br> <br><br>DE: why are you so sure it is impossible for Hubbert to be right re oil production peak AND Palast be right that Cheney & co are manipulating supplies to rise prices? How are they mutually exclusive?<br><br>And how can you cite Chevrons Willyoujoinus campaign as evidence its all a conspiracy, but brush off Exxon (a much bigger company) anti peak oil campaign as evidence of nothing? Your confirmation bias is obvious. <p></p><i></i>

"Peak" and "Easy"

PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:51 am
by JD
Ahhh - does "easy" peak your fancy? he he<br><br>Nary a peak to be seen at the Come Join Chevron site.<br><br>You may figure it all out eventually.<br><br>Now to be fair to you I read up a bit on the Chevron Peak Oil policy. Best I could find is a statement by the CEO:<br><br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>And as we begin to contemplate the future decline of oil resources</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--><br><br>Chevron's CEO is only BEGINNING to contemplate the FUTURE decline of oil resources; clearly not a "the peak is here kill the weak" sort of thinking. <br><br>This was extracted from a statement by Chevron's CEO which is pretty sensible. So I guess you are right on one thing, that Chevron's CEO's thinking on the topic is congruent with my own (albeit I'm thinking it's coming faster than he does!):<br><br><!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="" target="top"></a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><br><br><!--EZCODE ITALIC START--><em>Three Predictions<br><br>Keynote address by David J. O'Reilly, Chairman and CEO, Chevron Corp. <br><br>All of these initiatives reflect the fact that energy is one of the most critical issues facing the global economy. And at an inflection point like the one we are witnessing now - when the demand curve has closed in on the supply curve - much attention has been focused on the issue of so-called peak oil.<br><br>Most of the debate about whether peak oil is imminent, however, misses the point. Oil will peak - that is a geologic fact. But the new energy equation is not static. It is dynamic and variable.<br><br>Current prices, for instance, are moderating demand growth and will bring about increased emphasis on conservation - whether it is through changing individual or collective behaviors. There is still enormous potential to further reduce energy use through conservation. In many ways, it is the lowest-cost new energy we have.<br><br>And as we begin to contemplate the future decline of oil resources, we are also beginning to contemplate where the next generation of energy will come from.<br><br>For the near future, extending oil production and expanding the global natural gas market will play primary roles. But we need to make sources such as coal and nuclear energy a larger part of the global supply mix for power generation.<br><br>And over the long term, the continuing revolution in technology and market forces will move emerging sources such as gas-to-liquids closer to the mainstream. They also will enable renewables such as wind and solar to become more competitive and economic.<br><br>All of which leads me to believe that peak oil, when it occurs, will actually resemble more of a long plateau - one in which transitions to new sources can be managed without major shocks or disruptions.</em><!--EZCODE ITALIC END--><br><br>Now natural gas supplies in North America; that's not going to be a gentle plateau; it's going to be much more of a dramatic drop. If you are building a house seriously consider going for very high end energy conserving features. I put in a 98% efficient furnace and heavily reinsulated my house. My colleague and his dad built a straw bail passive-solar house. Live close to your work and/or mass transit sources. And........ own energy company stocks for the long term because most people don't have the foresight to start conserving now.<br><br> <p></p><i></i>