11/01/2012 The Trend is solidly in Obama’s favor

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11/01/2012 The Trend is solidly in Obama’s favor

Postby Richard Charnin » Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:39 pm

11/01/2012 The Trend is solidly in Obama’s favor.


As of Nov.1:

Obama has 315 expected electoral votes; 98% win probability (490 of 500 trials).
He leads the state poll weighted average by 48.5-45.4%.
He leads in 15 of 18 Battleground states by 50.4-47.2% with 175 of 205 EV.

Obama caught Romney in the RCP National average: 47.4-47.3%.
Rasmussen and Gallup are Likely Voter (LV) polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Romney leads by 49-47%.
Gallup: Romney leads by 51-46%.

LV polls are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. The LV subset always understates the Democratic vote. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model are newly registered Democrats.

Obama leads in the scientific Rand poll 50.4-44.9% (52.9% of the two-party vote). The Rand poll does not eliminate any participating respondents, but rather weights their voter preference and intention to vote on a scale of 1-10.

The True Vote Model indicates that Obama would have 54.2% of the two-party vote with 348 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?
Richard Charnin
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