by Dreams End » Sat Oct 14, 2006 11:18 pm
I just had this forwarded from the local peace group. A repub pundit. Personally, this all seems to scripted to me, but for those of you who see the Dems as a real alternative, this may bring some hope.<br><br>In any event...they do their jobs well...whether it was all planned from the beginning or whether the Bushies went to far off the reservation, the timing of the leaks was impeccable. The negative assessments of generals re: Iraq - ditto.<br><br>So the only question now is, with this sort of thing coming out...if the Dems DON'T take back many seats, what's next?<br><br>Oh..."soft coup" is my made up term for change of power that looks to be fully democratic...but isn't. Think Australia, 1975...which is what I think we are seeing here. The alternative...well, you know what that is.<br><br>Maybe I'm just too cynical.<br><br><!--EZCODE QUOTE START--><blockquote><strong><em>Quote:</em></strong><hr><br>Charlie Cook's National Overview<br><br>Charlie Cook's National Overview<br>October 13, 2006<br><br>Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP<br><br>Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.<br><br>That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.<br><br>Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.<br><br>On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.<br><br>For Republicans, it is a time to defend every seat, no matter how secure those seats appear. If things don't change, GOP incumbents, who never even contemplated having a difficult race, may well lose this year. And if I were a Republican, I'd start praying that something happens to take the spotlight away from Iraq and scandals, because this current issue mix is lethal.<br><br>In the Senate, there were already seven GOP seats that were virtually tied, and in three or four of those cases, politically dead. Thus, we have not seen as much movement as we've seen in the House. Readers should remember the Cook Political Report's long respected policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in a worse category than Toss Up. For more on the state of play in the Senate races, see Editor Jennifer Duffy's Senate Overview in today's update.<br><br>Can things change? Sure. The North Korean nuclear (or non-nuclear, as the case may be) tests should serve as a reminder that this election, like any other, can turn on a dime. But for Republicans, it must turn if they have any hope of salvaging this election.<br><br>Charlie Cook's National Overview<!--EZCODE LINK START--><a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/overview/default.php">Cook Report</a><!--EZCODE LINK END--><hr></blockquote><!--EZCODE QUOTE END--> <p></p><i></i>