Analysis of Effect of Kerry's Bad Joke

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Analysis of Effect of Kerry's Bad Joke

Postby isachar » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:51 pm

From an email newsletter which I receive:<br>---------------------------------------------------------<br>Friends,<br><br>Just when we thought we had a handle on this election…on Halloween, John Kerry reappears – like a Democratic boogeyman – and potentially scares swing and GOP non-voters into showing up at the polls next Tuesday. This event is nothing compared to the mega issues of Iraq and Bush’s perceived performance but it may be enough to drive up the Republican vote in some districts by a point or so. In an election where literally two dozen races are too close to call (the polling is within the margin of error)…this could be pivotal. <br><br>Let’s be clear: we do not believe the Kerry remarks are going to change the minds of Democrats or even most Independents who oppose the President and the war. But this story does have some legs and definitely has the potential to boost GOP turnout. More importantly, it takes the Democrats off-message in a big way. This is exactly NOT what the Democrats wanted to happen a week prior to the election.<br><br>Here is a snapshot look at the current environment:<br><br>Even before the Kerry flap, we saw Republicans hold their own in the last week, perhaps carrying the week’s news cycle or at least playing the Democrats to a draw. It was the first time in more than a month that the GOP message was starting to break through the clutter. The national debate and dialogue moved off of Foley for the first time in a month and moved to some areas that have the potential to help Republicans, including immigration reform, same-sex marriage bans and stem cell research. <br>Having said that, the previous five weeks of intensely negative news on Iraq and Foley solidified Democratic gains. The fact is that the Democrats “won” October. An analysis by the Center for Media and Public Affairs of midterm election stories aired from mid-September to October 22nd on the big three evening network newscasts showed that evaluations of the election favored Democrats by a significant margin. The media focus was on process stories on Foley and Bush and how they negatively impacted GOP chances. The result: Democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot by approximately 10-15 points and are seen as “better” than Republicans on nearly every issue that matters to voters (and many by a significant margin). <br>Foley was important for two reasons: it blocked the GOP message of national security and it crystallized the corruption issue for voters. Republicans were now seen as “bad”. This supplemented some pre-existing notions voters had but could not articulate. <br>Having said the above…Iraq is really the only issue in this election. It has truly served to nationalize this election. October was the worst PR month in the entire history of the war. It probably served as the tipping point for many swing voters. That is why Democratic strategists have to be bonkers over Kerry’s remarks. The comments by Kerry may potentially disrupt the “nationalizing effect” of the Iraq war. If Kerry had made a joke about almost anything else in the world it would not have mattered. This might matter. <br>President Bush remains a massive liability to Republicans in this election. We have said for more than a year that the President’s approval rating needed to recover to the mid to high 40’s for him to become a “neutral factor” in the mid-terms. It has not. Our own regression model analysis of all publicly available polling data shows that the President’s approval rating will likely be between 39-40%. The President’s net approval rating (percent approve minus the percent disapprove) is -17. This represents a 2-3% drag on all Republican candidates for office in next week’s election. <br> <br>Hard hitting negative/comparative ads being rolled out by Republicans are working. There is evidence that some endangered GOP candidates are recovering and stabilizing because of these ads. They started airing 2-3 weeks out and the polling suggests that they are doing what they always do…dragging down the favorable ratings of the candidates they attack. <br><br>While the above points offer a mixed bag of good and bad for each party…the environment is decidedly negative for Republicans. In fact, in many parts of the country – the Northeast and the Midwest in particular – the situation is toxic. We are in a period of severe voter discontent. Two thirds of the American public believes the country is headed in the wrong direction. Even favorable stock market and gas price news have had little impact. An array of polls shows that both middle class and Roman Catholic voters are turning away from Republicans in droves. Does this mean a Democratic wave? We don’t think so. Here is why:<br><br>The Democrats have still not offered a competing ideological frame. Voters on election day will be voting against Bush and Republicans and not for Democrats. There is no evidence that voters even understand what the Democrats will do if they gain power. In 1994 voters had some notion of the agenda that Republicans would put forth if elected. Advantage GOP. <br>Gerrymandering has given incumbents the edge and this time that will help Republicans. Simply put, it continues to be very difficult for a challenger to win in some of these districts. Give the GOP the “structural” advantage. <br>The GOP voter turnout machine is better. We think that Democrats have closed the “microtargeting” gap…but not enough. Advantage GOP. <br>Constitutional amendments banning same sex marriage will help Republicans in several states, especially Tennessee. Advantage GOP. <br> <br>At this point in time Democrats are still likely to take the House. We project a 15-22 seat gain for Democrats. This may change in the coming days but we definitely do not see a 30 seat gain for Democrats. The Republicans will hold the Senate. TN is now tracking toward Corker. In the closest Senate race in the country, Talent will win in Missouri but we may not know this for several days. We think things are trending badly for Allen in Virginia and Kean in New Jersey. <br><br>We will have a final snapshot and projections on Monday November 1st. <br><br>Steve Lombardo<br>President & CEO<br>Lombardo Consulting Group, LLC<br><br>--------------------------------------------------<br><br>What was Kerry' trying to say in his botched joke? Can't find the link now, but read an interview with Kerry's speechwriter/aide who said the script for the joke's punchline was "You get us stuck in Iraq", with the important word 'us' left out. With that word it was meant to be a back-handed reference to Bush's lack of education leading to his getting 'us' stuck in Iraq. Kerry is so not funny, he shouldn't try to tell a knock-knock joke.<br><br>--------------------------------------------------------<br><br>Was Kerry's botched joke his latest attempt to take a fall for his Skull and Bones bosom-buddy, the Preznint? Kinda like him saying in August 2002, in an unprompted interview at the Grand Canyon, that he'd have made the same decision to go to war against Iraq as Bush did?<br><br> <p></p><i>Edited by: <A HREF=http://p216.ezboard.com/brigorousintuition.showUserPublicProfile?gid=isachar>isachar</A> at: 11/1/06 5:58 pm<br></i>
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Re: Analysis of Effect of Kerry's Bad Joke

Postby Infernal Optimist » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:37 pm

Well, on the upside the Democrats will be able to talk about the war to their hearts' content. Let's see what they do with it.<br><br>I don't know if Kerry was just following orders or not. But I'm glad he's not the president (although I'd prefer almost anyone to the current resident). Imagine someone who's too dumb to call Bush dumb! He'd probably try to change channels on his cable box and launch the nukes. <p></p><i></i>
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Re: Analysis of Effect of Kerry's Bad Joke

Postby OnoI812 » Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:26 pm

"We can't talk about that, because It's a secret...he he he"<br>John (Skull&Bones) Kerry <p></p><i></i>
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