It started right after the Anthrax scare. The odds of this being a pure coincidence are infinitesmal.

Of course,the NYT has never acknowledged ANY conspiracy:

August 11, 2002 (E): The New York Times has an article on the mysterious deaths of numerous microbiologists, and strongly argues the entire thing is a coincidence. Says a professor of statistics, ''We can never say for a fact that something isn't a conspiracy. We can just point out the odds that it isn't.''

What else would you expect from the NYT?

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/deadbiologists.html

1.November 12, 2001: The beginning of numerous mysterious deaths of renowned microbiologists. A good place to start learning about this is a Globe and Mail article, which calls these deaths a "tale only the best conspiracy theorist could dream up" yet hard to explain (The Memphis Flyer also provides a good overview, but is much more speculative: ). The first dead microbiologist is Dr. Benito Que, 52, was "an expert in infectious diseases and cellular biology at the Miami Medical School. Police originally suspected that he had been beaten on November 12 in a carjacking in the medical school's parking lot. Strangely enough, though, his body showed no signs of a beating. Doctors then began to suspect a stroke."

2.November 16, 2001: Dead microbiologist: Dr. Don Wiley, 57, disappears during a business trip to Memphis, Tennessee. He had just bought tickets to take his son to Graceland the following day. Police found his rental car on a bridge outside Memphis. His body was later found in the Mississippi River. Forensic experts said he may have had a dizzy spell and fallen off the bridge. Police will only say, "We began this investigation as a missing person investigation. From there it went to a more criminal bent." "Wiley is seen as one of the world's leading researchers of deadly viruses, including HIV and the Ebola virus." Wiley worked at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute at Harvard University, and was an expert on the immune system's response to viral attacks. He was widely regarded as the nation's foremost expert in using special X-ray cameras and mathematical formulas to make high-resolution images of viruses. The FBI is monitoring the I

3.November 21, 2001 (B): Dead microbiologist: World-class microbiologist and high-profile Russian defector Dr. Vladimir Pasechnik, 64, dies of a stroke. Pasechnik, who defected to Britain in 1989, had played a huge role in the development of Russian biowarfare, heading a lab of 400 "with an unlimited budget" and "the best staff available." He says he succeeded in producing an aerosolized plague microbe that could survive outside the laboratory. He was connected to Britain's spy agency and recently had started his own company. "In the last few weeks of his life he had put his research on anthrax at the disposal of the Government, in the light of the threat from bioterrorism."

4,5,6.November 24, 2001: Three more dead microbiologists: A Swissair flight from Berlin to Zurich crashes during its landing approach; 22 are killed and nine survive. Among those killed are Dr. Yaakov Matzner, 54, dean of the Hebrew University school of medicine; Amiramp Eldor, 59, head of the haematology department at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv and a world-recognized expert in blood clotting; and Avishai Berkman, 50, director of the Tel Aviv public health department and businessman.

7.December 10, 2001: Dead microbiologist: "Dr. Robert Schwartz, 57, was stabbed and slashed with what police believe was a sword in his farmhouse in Leesberg, Va. His daughter, who identifies herself as a pagan high priestess, and three of her fellow pagans have been charged." All were part of what they called a coven, and interested in magic, fantasy and self-mutilation. The police have no motive as to why they would have wanted to kill Schwartz, who was a single parent and said to be very close to his children. Schwartz worked at Virginia's Center for Innovative Technology on DNA sequencing and pathogenic microorganisms. He was "a brilliant scientist who had a gift for explaining complex scientific subjects in simple language."

8.December 14, 2001: Dead microbiologist: Nguyen Van Set, 44, dies in an airlock filled with nitrogen in his lab in Geelong, Australia. The lab had just been written up in the journal Nature for its work in genetic manipulation and DNA sequencing. Scientists there had created a virulent form of mousepox. "They realized that if similar genetic manipulation was carried out on smallpox, an unstoppable killer could be unleashed," according to Nature.

9,10.January 2002: Two dead microbiologists: Ivan Glebov and Alexi Brushlinski. Pravda reports that Glebov died as the result of a bandit attack and reports without explanation that Brushlinski was killed in Moscow. Both were "well known around the world" and members of the Russian Academy of Science.

11.February 9, 2002 (B): Dead microbiologist: Victor Korshunov, 56, is bashed over the head and killed at the entrance of his home in Moscow, Russia. He was the head of the microbiology sub-faculty at the Russian State Medical University and an expert in intestinal bacteria.

12.February 11, 2002: Dead microbiologist: Dr. Ian Langford, 40, is found dead, partially naked and wedged under a chair in his home in Norwich, England. When found, his house was described as "blood-spattered and apparently ransacked." He was an expert in environmental risks and disease and a senior Fellow at the University of East Anglia's Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment. One of his colleagues states: "Ian was without doubt one of Europe's leading experts on environmental risk, specializing in links between human health and environmental risk... He was one of the most brilliant colleagues I have ever had."

13,14.February 28, 2002 (B): Two dead microbiologists in San Francisco: While taking delivery of a pizza, Tanya Holzmayer, 46, is shot and killed by a colleague, Guyang Huang, 38, who then apparently shot himself. Holzmayer moved to the US from Russia in 1989. Her research focused on the part of the human molecular structure that could be affected best by medicine. Holzmayer was focusing on helping create new drugs that interfere with replication of the virus that causes AIDS. One year earlier, Holzmayer obeyed senior management orders to fire Huang.

15.March 24, 2002 (C): Dead microbiologist: David Wynn-Williams, 55, is hit by a car while jogging near his home in Cambridge, England. He was an astrobiologist with the Antarctic Astrobiology Project and the NASA Ames Research Center. He was studying the capability of microbes to adapt to environmental extremes, including the bombardment of ultraviolet rays and global warming.

16.March 25, 2002: Dead microbiologist: Steven Mostow, 63, dies when the airplane he was piloting crashes near Denver, Colorado. He worked at the Colorado Health Sciences Centre and was known as "Dr. Flu" for his expertise in treating influenza, and expertise on bioterrorism. Mostow was "one of the country's leading infectious disease experts" and was associate dean at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center. Three others died in the crash. Mostow's death bring the total number of leading microbiologists killed in a six-month period to at least 15.

This analysis uses the same mathematics we used to compute the probability of 15 or more JFK witnesses turning up dead within a one year period. It's the SAME problem, but in this case the time interval is even shorter - 4 months, making it even more improbable.

We seek to calculate the probability of at least 15 microbiologists dying UNNATURAL deaths within a 4 month period. The deaths were a combination of homicides, suicides, accidents and undetermined origin.

The key VARIABLE is: How many world-class microbiologists are there? Not knowing this number, I have calculated the probabilities using three cases: 1000, 2000, 5000 biologists.

For a 4 month period the probability is 1/3 the full one year probabilty, which is what I initially used for the computations since one year mortality data is available.

To obtain the odds of unnatural death, I used 1999 mortality data:

http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm

HERE IS THE RESULT, ASSUMING 5000 WORLD-CLASS BIOLOGISTS:

FOR 16 STRANGE DEATHS TO OCCUR FROM A UNIVERSE OF 5,000 IN A 4 MONTH PERIOD, THE ODDS ARE ABOUT 1 IN 100 MILLION.

FOR 15 DEATHS, the probability is approximately 1 in 15 million.

Assuming there are 5000 world-class microbiologists in the world, the probability is 1/3 * 1/5,239,858 or 1 in 16 million.

FOR 16 DEATHS. the odds are 1 in 100 million .

Assuming there are only 1000 world-class microbiologists, the probability that at least 15 would die UNNATURAL deaths in a FULL calendar year is:

1 out of 21,230,606,601,227,800

For 15 deaths to occur in a 4 MONTH period, the odds are 1/3 of the above

or 1 in 63,690 trillion....

Mortality rates:

........................1 year...Lifetime

Probability of:

suicide.................0.000107 0.008197

homicide................0.000062 0.004739

accidental death........0.000359 0.027778

undetermined death......0.000014 0.001101

Total............................ 0.000542 0.041815

The probability of an unnatural death in a GIVEN YEAR is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories = 0.000542 (approximately 1 in 2000).

The probability of an unnatural death in a LIFETIME is the sum of the probabilities of the four categories (1 in 25).

The Poisson Distribution

Although the Normal (Gaussian) probability distribution is by far the most important, there is another which has proven to be particularly useful - the Poisson Distribution, which is derived from, and is a special case of the Normal Distribution.

The Poisson Distribution applies when the probability "P" for success in any one trial is very small, but the number of trials N is so large that the expected number of successes, pN, is a moderate sized quantity. The formula is: P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m!

In words, the Probability of EXACTLY m successes = a to the m'th power times the exponential function of (-a), all divided by m factorial.

If m= 15, m factorial = m! = 15*14*13*12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1

Now lets use Poisson to determine the probability of a given number of individuals from ANY predefined group meeting unnatural deaths within a one-year period.

The only assumption we are making here is the number of biologists.

Assume for the sake of argument, there are N= 1000

Let p= Probability of any individual dying from UNNATURAL causes within a given year = 0.000542

Let a= Expected Number of deaths = pN= 0.542

Let m= Actual Number of UNNATURAL deaths = 15

The probability of exactly m=15 UNNATURAL deaths within a given year out of a predefined group of N = 1000 is:

P(m) =a**m*exp(-a)/m! or p(15)= 0.542**15*exp(-.542)/15!

Here are the probabilities for m=1 through m=15 deaths occurring within ONE year:

Prob(X=m) = probability of EXACTLY m DEATHS

Prob(X>=m) = probability of at AT LEAST m DEATHS (the one we want)