COVID-19 Data & Docs

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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:12 pm

Another long and well-researched piece, packed full of links and data, from Simon Elmer (Architects for Social Housing) on 'Collateral Damage in the War on COVID-19'.

https://architectsforsocialhousing.co.u ... -covid-19/

A shame that the folks that probably should read it won't, while those that do read it likely don't need to.

Also includes reference to the (new to me) 'Our World In Data - COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index' (interactive) chart:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... PN~SWE~TWN


Another good (longform) piece from J. B. Handley on 'LOCKDOWN LUNACY: the thinking person's guide':

https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/lockdownlunacy


One small detail I had wrong regarding the publication of the SAGE minutes - rather than being the result of a FOI request, it appears that the release was the result of the ongoing legal challenge mounted by Simon Dolan (mentioned upthread): https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/lockd ... challenge/
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:56 pm



Didn't want you to think I missed/ignored this... I can't/won't access FB and I've not looked in-depth at the CDC data lately (mainly because I've found 'CDC WONDER' a bit flaky and a PITA to use - maybe I should give it another go). As a rule now I tend to go to 'Ethical Skeptic' for his take on it, as he's been pretty spot on so far.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic - https://theethicalskeptic.com/

On the NYC MTA, I found an article in the Guardian from 20th April that states:

The New York City area has seen the majority of American transit worker deaths, with 68 fatalities among employees of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority as of Friday afternoon. Nearly 2,500 MTA transit employees had tested positive, and more than 4,000 were in quarantine, a spokesman said.

- but it doesn't indicate how many MTA workers there are in total.

It later refers to 'Three unions that represent more than 275,000 American transit workers' in reference to the 94 (nationally) reported deaths (at that time), so even assuming all workers are members of those three unions, that's a crude fatality rate of around 0.03% - broadly inline with the national total.

But yes, NYC appears to have bourne the brunt of it (again), and I've still not really seen anything convincing regarding the reasons for this. Hopefully time (and more accurate data) will tell, albeit sadly too late for too many.
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:43 pm

Another UK Doctor (purportedly) writes:
I am a doctor, and I work primarily in a hospital setting. Initially, way back in March, I was ambivalent towards the lockdown – I was concerned regarding the precedent it set – and felt very uncomfortable with such a stringent curtailment of rights. However, a lot of my colleagues were sharing pictures etc from Italy, and COVID at that point was an unknown risk – to me at least. Amongst young, fit doctors like me there was a genuine worry that we might become seriously unwell. I was asked to update my next of kin by the trust I worked at, some of my colleagues made wills. There was much anxiety in the medical profession. So I bought into it. I naively believed the lockdown would be a stop gap measure, lasting only a few weeks, as reasonably no country could keep everyone in their house for such a long time period – and no electorate would allow such a thing, right?

As the first three weeks passed, I saw first hand quite how quiet the hospitals were, and how few non-COVID patients we were seeing. Whole wards were empty. On some days, I saw more suicide attempts than COVID. Combined with this was the growing body of information regarding the lethality of this coronavirus – the likely IFR, the propensity for mortality in high risk groups, but not in the young, and the clear evidence of the profound and deleterious effects of lockdown on the population. My mindset shifted, and I no longer saw lockdown as a necessary evil, and coronavirus was no longer an existential threat. I naively assumed that society was having the same realisation. This was not the case.

Over the last few weeks I have become increasingly frustrated and horrified by what has occurred. I cannot understand how we can continue such a wholesale curtailment of freedom, without any real backlash. I am livid at the lack of treatment for cancer patients, and quite how little society seems to care about anything other than COVID. I believe that the effects of lockdown will be far, far more significant than COVID. I am also angry about the fetishisation of the NHS, clap for carers, the TikTok videos and all of the nonsense that has taken place around this. I am involved in none of it, and resent my colleagues that are, because they should know how underserved that praise is, and how much they are letting down patients.

I am angry at the complete lack of empathy shown by huge sections of society. People bleat for more lockdown and the “new normal” to defend themselves against a mild virus. In the meantime, they ignore domestic violence victims locked in houses, children needing education, patients needing treatment that has been withheld, the mental health of millions. It’s so cruel and ruthless. I know fear corrodes empathy, but I am genuinely surprised about how callous people can seem to be.

I am thinking of the new laws regarding sex being illegal between people from different households – surely this is plainly absurd, and a level of intrusion into private lives never seen before. How have people accepted this? I also think about the 2m distancing requirements everywhere – even though this will destroy large sections of the economy. How has there not been a national outcry? What is wrong with people? The rules themselves are horrifying, but more terrifying to me is the complete acceptance of said rules.

I have discussed this with several medical colleagues and they seem to fall into several categories: those that believe the rules should continue and see no issue with them (startling and worrying, considering these are supposed to be rational, empathetic people); those who believe in lockdown, but then are happy to break it, and to suggest that I break it (these are hypocrites); and finally those who also agree that this is mad, but somehow don’t find it all as deeply distressing and as enraging as I do.

Some of my friends (who hold the same views as me) have told me the “new normal” will never be tolerated. That people will revert back to normal, and that society will see how ludicrous this all is. But I no longer trust that to be the case. If in January you had told me that I would be shut in my house for weeks, unable to see anyone aside from at work, I would’ve said that was madness. But we have accepted such a thing wholesale. I no longer trust in the rationality of society to get us out of this, and that scares me.

I have attempted to speak to some people in the media, despite this being forbidden by the trust I work for, but I have had no replies – no one seems interested in my story as it doesn’t fit the narrative.

The final straw was when I myself contracted COVID. I had minimal symptoms aside from a slight cold and a slight a loss of taste and smell. Normally I would not even pay attention to such symptoms. Many of my friends refused to believe it was COVID, as they said I would be sicker. I got a swab anyway and was positive. I was told by pro-lockdown friends that I was very lucky to have it so mildly – I replied saying no, I was the norm. People did not listen. People do not listen to anything that contradicts their view. They are brainwashed.

I have never been more disappointed. I was always maybe a touch idealistic, and went into medicine to help people. I genuinely believed society wouldn’t let people fall between the gaps, and would ultimately be caring and rational. I was a warm fuzzy liberal. I am so upset and angry with what has been permitted. I expected better. I have never been more disappointed to be a doctor, or to be a British citizen.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/06/01 ... ment-19654

Sentiments I've heard echoed elsewhere.
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:10 pm

Cor, look at that... 'Covid', 'Data' and 'Docs':

Under pressure, UK government releases NHS COVID data deals with big tech

Hours before openDemocracy was due to sue, government releases massive data-sharing contracts with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Faculty and Palantir.

Mary Fitzgerald & Cori Crider - 5 June 2020

Hours before facing court proceedings from openDemocracy over its massive NHS COVID-19 data deal with private tech firms, the UK government has caved to pressure and released all the contracts governing its deals with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and controversial AI firms Faculty and Palantir.

The contracts, released to openDemocracy and tech justice firm Foxglove today, reveal details of what has been described as an ‘unprecedented’ transfer of personal health information of millions of NHS users to these private tech firms.

Significantly, the contracts reveal that the Dominic Cummings-linked firm Faculty is being paid more than £1m to provide AI services for the NHS. The documents also show that terms of that deal were changed after initial demands for transparency were made by Foxglove under the Freedom of Information Act.

The contracts show that companies involved in the NHS datastore project, including Faculty and Palantir, were originally granted intellectual property rights (including the creation of databases), and were allowed to train their models and profit off their unprecedented access to NHS data.

Government lawyers have now claimed that a subsequent (undisclosed) amendment to the contract with Faculty has cured this problem, however they have not released the further contract. openDemocracy and Foxglove are demanding its immediate release. It is not clear if other contracts were altered as well.

The disclosures come after openDemocracy and Foxglove sent legal letters demanding transparency over the COVID datastore deal, and just hours before openDemocracy was due to issue proceedings in court.

Over the past few weeks, MPs have asked questions in parliament about the controversial deals and over 13,000 people joined a call for transparency.

Today, openDemocracy is publishing the contracts in full, in order to facilitate expert analysis and support public debate.

[...]

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/under- ... -big-tech/

Docs at link. ^^^
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:14 pm

:ohno:

This file contains information on the deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and have tested positive for Covid-19. All deaths were reported during the period specified below.

All data up to 5pm 2 June 2020

[...]

[without] Pre existing condition

0 - 19 yrs : 3
20 - 39 : 32
40 - 59 : 255
60 - 79 : 551
80+ : 477

Total : 1,318



https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... ly-deaths/ > 'weekly tables'

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/w ... ables.xlsx

That total of 1,318 (to date) is less than the average daily all-cause deaths in England.

(I'm just about done with this).
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby JackRiddler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:51 pm

Did you see WHO's astonishing discovery that asymptomatic people almost certainly are not spreading the virus to others?
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby alloneword » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:12 pm

Yes, but I can't say I found it 'astonishing'. Not even 'surprising', TBH.

(WHO press conference here, ICAI).
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby JackRiddler » Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:22 pm

we've got irony on this side of the pond too mate. astonishing, amazing, gobsmacking, stupendous, etc.

(Much like the equally shocking, earth-shaking, world-upending revision to the idea that maybe inert surfaces are not such great and long-lasting spreaders after all.)
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby Grizzly » Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:40 am

More on selling/giving away our health records to tech firms and mega corps...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23457095

there's another post about this, by alloneword, but I can't find it. Otherwise this would be a supplement to his post.
“The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it.”

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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby JackRiddler » Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:39 pm

The shock-shocking continues:

Daily coronavirus briefing: WHO backtracks on asymptomatic cases claim
By Staff, AccuWeather

June 9, 11:43 a.m.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-w ... rld/734987

The World Health Organization has cautioned that much is still unknown about COVID-19 and its asymptomatic spread. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, has said that it is "a really complex question and much is still unknown." Van Kerkhove also said that WHO officials don't have an answer to how easily it can spread asymptomatically yet and that current estimates are anywhere between 6% and 41% of the population may be infected but show zero symptoms, according to CNBC.

The remarks were a clarification on what she said Monday during a press conference. “From the data we have, it seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Van Kerkhove told reporters. On Tuesday, she said during a live social media broadcast that her comments on Monday had been in response to a question and she wasn't stating a specific WHO policy. “And in that [press conference], I used the phrase ‘very rare,’ and I think that that’s misunderstanding to state that asymptomatic transmission globally is very rare. I was referring to a small subset of studies,” she said, according to CNBC. “Some estimates of around 40% of transmission may be due to asymptomatic, but those are from models, so I didn’t include that in my answer yesterday, but wanted to make sure that I covered that here,” she said.


Is this a retraction under pressure? Of a sort, I expect. They are many, they think within a range, it's all high-pressure and contested space even among them, it's all high-stakes with the perception that millions of lives turn on whatever they say and they are thus liable. They are terrified of suggesting anything is a consensus or anything is known, even when it's pretty obvious. Poor lady's answer of yesterday attracted a lot of attention, so today she has to complicate it.

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How Insane Are 511 Epidemiologists?

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:22 am

A reality that some here have missed is that there's never been actual underlying consensus among the working scientists, even at the authoritative state and international institutions. For many reasons (actual differences in collection and assessment of the data, socialization, politics, fear of liability given the range of risks and the unknowns) they may only appear to have fronts when in fact they disagree or don't really know what to say about lethality, contagiousness, modes of spreading, mutations and strains, advisability and effectiveness of response, whether and what lockdown measures make sense and overall risk/benefit assessment thereof, etc. There never could have been such a consensus until now, after empirical study over months. There still isn't.

This survey, though, makes me wonder how many of them are just nuts.

When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again
By Margot Sanger-Katz, Claire Cain Miller and Quoctrung Bui
June 8, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... virus.html


Apparently right now 35% of a sample of 511 are still afraid to bring in the mail without precautions, and 3% think this will never be possible again. (Guess I'm doomed and going to kill grandma, because I never took that shit seriously.) Only a third would attend a small dinner party this summer. The majority are ready to finish off all remaining hope for restaurants, sports, concerts, theater and airlines.

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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby JackRiddler » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:22 pm

If you didn't hear this was so high before now, why not?

43% of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes

By The New York Times
June 27, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

43%
OF ALL U.S. DEATHS
54,000+

11%
OF ALL U.S. CASES
282,000+

At least 54,000 residents and workers have died from the coronavirus at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for older adults in the United States, according to a New York Times database. As of June 26, the virus has infected more than 282,000 people at some 12,000 facilities.

Nursing home populations are at a high risk of being infected by — and dying from — the coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, is known to be particularly lethal to adults in their 60s and older who have underlying health conditions. And it can spread more easily through congregate facilities, where many people live in a confined environment and workers move from room to room.

While 11 percent of the country’s cases have occurred in long-term care facilities, deaths related to Covid-19 in these facilities account for more than 43 percent of the country’s pandemic fatalities.

In at least 24 states, a majority of deaths are linked to nursing homes.

[...map & more...]

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The shocks just keep coming...

Postby JackRiddler » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:42 pm

I mean, in the Casablanca sense of shocked, shocked.

I'm copy pasting but you have to go to see graphics.

The Results of Europe’s Lockdown Experiment Are In
By Elaine He
May 20, 2020
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020 ... recession/

With governments across Europe reopening their economies for business, it’s a good moment to look back on the different paths taken to control Covid-19 outbreaks to try to see how effective they were.

The chart below shows the relative severity of Europe’s restrictions based on work done by the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, which tracks a range of measures and scores how stringent they’ve been each step of the way.

Reaction Time
For many European countries, stringency levels increased substantially after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic, even when their case loads were low

[graphic]

While not a gauge of whether the decisions taken were the right ones, nor of how strictly they were followed, the analysis gives a clear sense of each government’s strategy for containing the virus. Some — above all Italy and Spain — enforced prolonged and strict lockdowns after infections took off. Others — especially Sweden — preferred a much more relaxed approach. Portugal and Greece chose to close down while cases were relatively low. France and the U.K. took longer before deciding to impose the most restrictive measures.

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends.

Deadly Outcomes
Deaths above normal ranges shows the European countries that struggled to contain their Covid-19 outbreaks

[graphic]

In Europe, roughly three groups of countries emerge in terms of fatalities. One group, including the U.K., the Netherlands and Spain, experienced extremely high excess mortality. Another, encompassing Sweden and Switzerland, suffered many more deaths than usual, but significantly less than the first group. Finally, there were countries where deaths remained within a normal range such as Greece and Germany.

Yet the data show that the relative strictness of a country’s containment measures had little bearing on its membership in any of the three groups above. While Germany had milder restrictions than Italy, it has been much more successful in containing the virus.

The overall impression is that while restrictions on movement were seen as a necessary tool to halt the spread of the virus, when and how they were wielded was more important than their severity. Early preparation, and plentiful health-care resources, were enough for several countries to avoid draconian lockdowns. Germany, with better testing and contact tracing and more intensive care units than its neighbors, could afford to keep the economy a bit more open. Greece, by acting quickly and surely, appears to have avoided the worst, so far.

As one would expect, the countries with the most intense lockdowns look likely to suffer the most economically. What’s not clear yet is how much economic benefit countries with relatively lax curbs really stand to gain, given the integrated and trade-driven nature of the European economy. The export-led Swedish economy is set to shrink 7% this year, its government said on Tuesday. Germany, whose economy was shrinking before the pandemic, is already in recession. These countries may bounce back earlier than others next year, but this is a painful moment for all.

The Economic Pain of Shutting Down
Early data show that countries with harsher responses to Covid-19 also suffered more economically

[more graphic - Irish & Greek production went up?! I guess anything's possible when you start small]

The economic data for the lockdown period are only just appearing, and they may be revised substantially in the future given the obvious difficulties of collecting data during a pandemic. Regardless, what the past few months suggest is that the economic cost is not the only downside to a draconian lockdown. The Covid-19 experience has taught us that it’s far better to respond quickly and smartly, with the right technology and mass testing and tracing, rather than only relying on the crudest of shutdowns. If there are second waves of the virus, we shouldn’t repeat the mistakes of the first.

Ferdinando Giugliano and Lionel Laurent contributed reporting.

Notes: Stringency is a composite measure of government containment policies, ranging from 0 to 100. Indicators include closing of schools, workplaces and public transport, cancellations of public events, restrictions on gathering size, internal movement and international travel, requirements on staying at home and public information campaigns. The index doesn't provide information on how well policies are enforced, nor does it capture demographic or cultural characteristics that may affect the spread of Covid-19. Excess mortality is measured in z-scores, which is the standard deviation from the mean. A score of 2 and below indicates that deaths are within normal patterns observed for that period; above 15 is considered extremely high excess mortality.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Elaine He at ehe36@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.net
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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby fruhmenschen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:31 pm

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Re: COVID-19 Data & Docs

Postby fruhmenschen » Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:35 am

ttps://anthraxvaccine.blogspot.com/2020 ... t-for.html


Wednesday, November 25, 2020
FDA Citizen's Petition and Request for Stay of Decision on Covid vaccines--until accurate tests are used to determine actual number of cases and non-cases in Pfizer vaccine clinical trial

Dr. Sin Hang Lee and the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), through attorneys Aaron Siri and Elizabeth Brehm, have requested that FDA require accurate counts of Covid cases in the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 mRNA vaccine trial and other Covid vaccine trials. 
Furthermore, until an accurate number of Covid-19 cases in the vaccinated and placebo groups has been determined, FDA is asked to withhold an Emergency Use Authorization for this and other vaccines.
The Pfizer Phase 2/3 clinical trial was designed for haste:  in other words, to accumulate as many "cases" as possible in the shortest time, in order to speed approval and use.
To do so, only one symptom was required for a "case," and almost any  nonspecific symptom, such as a sore throat, fever, a cough or an episode of vomiting or diarrhea would do.  Patients with a nonspecific symptom were then given a PCR test.  Most PCR tests used the Cepheid XpertXpress system, which is known to have a high false positive rate. Cycle thresholds of 35 and over were used, even though Anthony Fauci and the NY Times have both noted such high cycle  thresholds lead to false positives.
Thus, both required elements of the case definition (a nonspecific symptom and an inaccurate PCR test result) lacked precision, and allowed for the inclusion of false positives.
It would have been easy to establish that PCR positive subjects were truly positive by using the gold standard of Sanger sequencing. This verifies whether the PCR product really represents the SARS-Cov-2 virus. It is a standard procedure in many labs. Sequencing would probably have slowed the collection of Covid cases, thereby slowing FDA approval... and it was not performed.
FDA is being asked in the Petition to assure that PCR positive products are sequenced, so that accurate data on efficacy of the vaccine become available.  Because Pfizer asked FDA to issue an Emergency Use Authorization for the its vaccine, using much less safety and efficacy data than are required for a full license, imposing a requirement to assure accuracy of the data is a no-brainer. 
FDA is also being asked to withhold its decision on the EUA until such time as confirmed case numbers become available.
The Petition was filed on Nov 23, and the request for a Stay was filed on November 25.  The 2 documents are similar.


Posted by Meryl Nass, M.D. at 7:32 PM
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