"End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jun 30, 2011 8:38 pm

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This in one of the leading Greek papers.


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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4Dcgi/4dcgi ... 011_396388

The end of Europe as we know it


By Petros Papaconstantinou

“An epiphany is beguiling Europe,” wrote British historian Perry Anderson in 2007, adding, “Far from dwindling in historical significance, the Old World is about to assume an importance for humanity it has never, in all its days of dubious past glory, before possessed.”

The intellectual self-gratification of the elite is reflected in the relatively recent work of another British historian, Tony Judt, in “Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945,” in which he sings the praises of “Europe’s emergence in the dawn of the 21st century as a paragon of the international virtues.”

As George W. Bush’s America -- with the war in Iraq, financial scandals a la Enron and the bursting of the dot.com bubble -- was at the nadir of international credibility and the recently introduced euro was in its heyday, the temptation was great to believe, like the guru of New Labour, Mark Leonard, that the 21st century would be a European one.

In the same vein, German sociologist Ulrich Beck proclaimed, “Move over America, Europe is back.”

Even the publisher of the French theoretical review Le Debat, Marcel Gauchet, estimated that the political formula pioneered by the Europeans will ultimately become the model for all other nations.

It seems like centuries have passed since the Europeans saw themselves as the most beautiful thing in the world in the waters of a placid lake. Within four years, prompted by the global credit crisis, it all went pear-shaped, to the extent that Germany’s Der Spiegel published a photograph of the euro’s coffin draped in a Greek flag on its cover.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy felt compelled to warn that “without the euro there is no Europe, and without Europe there is no possible peace and stability.”

On an even more pessimistic note, Britain’s former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw wondered, “If this euro in its current form is going to collapse, is it not better that it happens quickly rather than a slow death?”

The truth is that the global financial crisis did not begin in the eurozone, but on Wall Street. However, international crises are much like earthquakes in that the greatest damage does not necessarily occur near the epicenter, but in areas with the most vulnerable structures. The eurozone proved to be the weak link as the common currency, instead of acting like a shock absorber, acted like an amplifier, magnifying to an extreme degree the imbalances between the German “core” and the Mediterranean “periphery.” Today, the shock waves of this relationship have intensified to the point of threatening a rift.

Demonizing the “wasteful” ways of the states on the periphery is a convenient interpretation of the crisis by the demagogues and populists in Europe’s North, which, oddly enough, seems to be the subject of some rumination by the governments of the beleaguered South.

Yesterday we were detestable PIGS (the nickname given collectively to Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain); today we have been downgraded to mere germs that threaten contagion. It’s not too hard to see where all this is going: If pigs can arouse some sympathy, germs can be eradicated without mercy using a simple formula concocted by the doctors, or can at least be kept far away from the healthy core of Europe with the imposition of quarantine.

If, though, little Greece is capable of causing such contagion throughout Europe, couldn’t the problem lie with Europe’s immune system? In other words, could Greece’s debt crisis be, instead of the cause, the catalyst for revealing a much deeper systemic crisis within the eurozone?

This question is being posed with increasing frequency by the flagships of the European and American press.

“The crisis is in Brussels, not in Athens,” ran the headline of an op-ed by Jacques Attali in The New York Times on Sunday, June 19. The first president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development stresses, with unadorned realism, that which few Greek politicians dare utter: “The Greek financial crisis is neither Greek nor financial any more. It is a political crisis of the whole of Europe. Its solution is no longer financial, but political. It is no longer a matter just for Athens, but for Brussels. Indeed, it is now a Franco-German problem above all since their banks are most exposed. “

The following day, Irwin Stelzer, former managing director of the investment banking firm of Rothschild Inc, wrote in The Wall Street Journal, “Let's not finger Greece as the locus of some sort of ‘contagion.’” The American analyst says that if the problem were restricted to Greece, or at least to the periphery of the European Union, solving it would be easy.

For his part, Timothy Garton Ash wrote in the Guardian on June 15: “It’s not just Greece. In Ireland, Portugal and Spain the anger is boiling over, as people feel that the young, the poor and the unemployed are being forced to pay for the selfish improvidence of their politicians -- and of French and German bankers.” The British historian argues that saving the eurozone is possible only though a political plan transforming the Union, something that would require a serious shift in stance from Germany.

“It’s all wishful thinking” is what the UK’s Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher, would respond. In 1993, the then British prime minister warned the Europeans: “You have not anchored Germany to Europe. You have anchored Europe to a newly dominant, unified Germany. In the end, my friends, you will find it will not work.”


Wednesday June 29, 2011
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby 2012 Countdown » Fri Jul 01, 2011 12:57 pm

apologies, delete.
George Carlin ~ "Its called 'The American Dream', because you have to be asleep to believe it."
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Obama’s Original Sin

Postby jfshade » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:35 pm

Frank Rich, now in New York Magazine. Still holding the faintest of hopes for an Obama turnaround. Emphasis added.

New York Magazine
Obama’s Original Sin

The president’s failure to demand a reckoning from the moneyed interests who brought the economy down has cursed his first term, and could prevent a second.

* By Frank Rich
* Published Jul 3, 2011

After 9/11, Rudy Giuliani went on Saturday Night Live to give New Yorkers permission to laugh again. But Mayor Bloomberg never did tell us when we could resume conspicuous consumption after the crash of 2008. And so, as we stumble through the second year of the official “recovery,” it’s been an improvisational return to high-end carousing in Manhattan.

A case in point was the late-May celebration of the centennial rededication of the New York Public Library. Surely no civic institution could be a more unimpeachable beard for a blowout. The dress code—no black tie—was egalitarian. The Abyssinian Baptist Church Gospel Choir, the New York City Gay Men’s Chorus, and that cute chorus from P.S. 22 in Staten Island—Glee diversity on steroids—were in the house along with some 900 invited guests, marquee names included (Toni Morrison, Jonathan Franzen). Bloomberg delivered a pre-dinner benediction from an altarlike perch on the main reading room’s balcony. “Free and open access to information may be the single most important component of any democratic society,” he said.

But it was impossible to banish toxic trace memories of the financial meltdown. Some two weeks earlier, the mayor had restricted the “free and open access” he now extolled. His fiscal 2012 budget called for slashing $40 million from the library system, a cut that would have mandated four-day weeks and the shutdown of a dozen branches.

There was also the awkward matter of the gala’s “corporate chair,” Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America. In the pageantry preceding Bloomberg’s remarks, the slightly flushed Moynihan, looking like a nervous ring bearer in a stately wedding ceremony, was among those singled out by the announcer while marching down the reading room’s long center aisle in a processional of library trustees. No doubt he earned this honor by ponying up to give more New Yorkers more books. But free and open access to the unexpurgated books of his own bank—and of its gutted acquisitions, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial—would be a far more valuable gift to our democratic society. Just a week before the library fête, the Huffington Post reported that B of A was stonewalling the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s investigation into fresh charges of defrauding taxpayers. Down in Naples, Florida, one Bank of America victim, Warren Nyerges, a 45-year-old retired cop, was getting ready to take the law into his own hands. Through a bureaucratic blunder—or worse—the bank had hounded his family for over a month, trying to foreclose on his house even though it was entirely debt-free. Unable to recover the legal expenses inflicted by this harassment, Nyerges staged a ruckus by hiring a lawyer who “foreclosed” on the bank’s local branch instead.

Nyerges, at least, would pry loose a settlement of $5,772 in early June. We could use him in New York, perhaps packing heat. Justice has not come to the city or its publicly funded institutions, which wouldn’t be in the fiscal hole they’re in today had malefactors like Bank of America not wrecked the economy in the first place and required taxpayer bailouts (two in B of A’s case). Still, you can’t blame the NYPL for collecting whatever reparations it could from Moynihan. One of the library’s formative patrons, present at the original dedication exactly 100 years earlier, was Andrew Carnegie, a ruthless tycoon second to none. But Carnegie did build a steel empire that sped the growth of the nation. Our own Gilded Age’s legacy is the financial “products” that greased the skids of America’s decline. At the centennial gala, you couldn’t escape the paw print of Stephen Schwarzman, the Blackstone Group billionaire whose library gift had entitled him to blast his name on any stray expanse of marble on the 42nd Street building. Schwarzman is nothing if not a representative 21st-­century titan. His principal monument has been to himself­, namely a notorious over-the-top 60th-birthday party, exquisite in both its bad timing and bad taste, that he threw the year before the crash. (If you’re shelling out a million bucks for an entertainer, is Rod Stewart the best you can do?) He is perhaps most renowned of late for comparing Obama to Hitler because the administration dared propose taxing private-equity firms’ share of client profits at a rate higher than 15 percent. (He later apologized.)

On that Monday night, the Republican Schwarzman was a political outlier in the crowd, which was dominated by New York’s liberal elite, financial and cultural divisions. Even Moynihan has been a faithful Democratic donor. These were Obama’s people (myself, yes, among them), and the worldly, let’s-turn-the-page spirit in the library that night uncannily reminded me of the hubristic vibe of Obama’s White House: The worst of the downturn is past, the wobbly economy will eventually creep forward, let the healed too-big-to-fail banks move on, and pray that the lagging indicators (i.e., employment) will catch up. Indeed, it’s a certain swath of the New York liberal elite that helped reinforce that Obama mind-set to begin with. Uncorrected, it could lead the president to defeat in 2012, even against a roster of opponents that almost everyone there that night would cavalierly dismiss as clowns.

What haunts the Obama administration is what still haunts the country: the stunning lack of accountability for the greed and misdeeds that brought America to its gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression. There has been no legal, moral, or financial reckoning for the most powerful wrongdoers. Nor have there been meaningful reforms that might prevent a repeat catastrophe. Time may heal most wounds, but not these. Chronic unemployment remains a constant, painful reminder of the havoc inflicted on the bust’s innocent victims. As the ghost of Hamlet’s father might have it, America will be stalked by its foul and unresolved crimes until they “are burnt and purged away.”

After the 1929 crash, and thanks in part to the legendary Ferdinand Pecora’s fierce thirties Senate hearings, America gained a Securities and Exchange Commission, the Public Utility Holding Company Act, and the Glass-Steagall Act to forestall a rerun. After the savings-and-loan debacle of the eighties, some 800 miscreants went to jail. But those who ran the central financial institutions of our fiasco escaped culpability (as did most of the institutions). As the indefatigable Matt Taibbi has tabulated, law enforcement on Obama’s watch rounded up 393,000 illegal immigrants last year and zero bankers. The Justice Department’s bally­hooed Operation Broken Trust has broken still more trust by chasing mainly low-echelon, one-off Madoff wannabes. You almost have to feel sorry for the era’s designated Goldman scapegoat, 32-year-old flunky “Fabulous Fab” Fabrice Tourre, who may yet take the fall for everyone else. It’s as if the Watergate investigation were halted after the cops nabbed the nudniks who did the break-in.


Even now, on the heels of Bank of America’s reluctant $8.5 billion settlement with investors who held its mortgage-backed securities, the Obama administration may be handing it and its peers new get-out-of-jail-free cards. With the Department of Justice’s blessing, the Iowa attorney general, Tom Miller, is pushing the 49 other states to sign on to a national financial settlement ending their investigations of the biggest mortgage lenders. What some call a settlement others may find a cover-up. Time reported in April that the lawyer negotiating with Miller for Moynihan’s Bank of America just happened to be a contributor to his 2010 Iowa reelection campaign. If the deal is struck, any truly aggressive state attorneys general, like Eric Schneiderman of New York, will be shut down before they can dig into the full and still mostly uninvestigated daisy chain of get-rich-quick rackets practiced by banks as they repackaged junk mortgages into junk securities.

Those in executive suites at the top of that chain have long since fled the scene with the proceeds, while bleeding shareholders, investors, homeowners, and ­cashiered employees were left with the bills. The weak Dodd-Frank financial-reform law that rose from the ruins remains largely inoperative, since the actual rule-writing was delegated to understaffed agencies now under siege by banking lobbyists and their well-greased congressional overlords. The administration’s much-hyped Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is being sabotaged by Washington Republicans intent on blocking any White House nominee, whether Elizabeth Warren or some malleable hack, to lead it. “We can’t let special interests win this fight,” said Obama when he proposed the agency in October 2009. Well, he missed his moment to fight for both it and Warren, and the special interests won without breaking a sweat.

Rather than purge the crash’s crimes, Wall Street’s leaders are sticking to their alibi: Everyone was guilty of fomenting this “perfect storm,” and so no one is. Too-big-to-fail banks are bigger than ever, and ­Masters of the Universe swagger is back. Even Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, about the only bank chief not to be caught with a suspect balance sheet or a $1,400 office trash can, has taken to channeling Schwarzman. In June, he publicly challenged Ben Bernanke about the intolerable burdens of potential regulation—this despite a 67 percent surge in JPMorgan’s first-quarter profits and a 1,500 percent raise in his own compensation from 2009 to 2010. As good times roar back for corporate America, it’s bad enough that CEOs are collectively sitting on some $1.9 trillion in cash—much of it parked out of the IRS’s reach overseas—instead of hiring. (How many jobs can you buy for $1.9 trillion? America’s total expenditure on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars over a decade has been $1.3 trillion.) But what’s most galling is how many of these executives are sore winners, crying all the way to Palm Beach while raking in record profits and paying some of the lowest tax rates over the past 50 years.

The fallout has left Obama in the worst imaginable political bind. No good deed he’s done for Wall Street has gone unpunished. He is vilified as an anti-capitalist zealot not just by Republican foes but even by some former backers. What has he done to deserve it? All anyone can point to is his December 2009 60 Minutes swipe at “fat-cat bankers on Wall Street”—an inept and anomalous Ed Schultz seizure that he retracted just weeks later by praising Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein as “very savvy businessmen.”

Obama can win reelection without carrying 10021 or Greenwich in any case. The bigger political problem is that a far larger share of the American electorate views him as a tool of the very fat-cat elite that despises him. Given Obama’s humble background, his history as a mostly liberal Democrat, and his famous résumé as a community organizer, this would also seem a reach. But the president has no one to blame but himself for the caricature. While he has never lusted after money—he’d rather get his hands on the latest novel by Morrison or Franzen—he is an elitist of a certain sort. For all the lurid fantasies of the birthers, the dirty secret of Obama’s background is that the values of Harvard, not of Kenya or Indonesia or Bill Ayers, have most colored his governing style. He falls hard for the best and the brightest white guys.

He stocked his administration with brilliant personnel linked to the bubble: liberals, and especially Ivy League liberals. Nearly three years on, they have taken a toll both on the White House’s image and its policies. Obama arrives at his reelection campaign not merely with a weak performance on Wall Street crime enforcement and reform but also with a scattershot record (at best) of focusing on the main concern of Main Street: joblessness. One is a consequence of the other. His failure to push back against the financial sector, sparing it any responsibility for the economy it tanked, empowered it to roll over his agenda with its own. He has come across as favoring the financial elite over the stranded middle class even if, in his heart of hearts, he does not.

The economic narrative of his presidency has been bookended by well-heeled appointees with tax issues. First came his Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, introduced to the public as a repeat tax delinquent, just too important to attend to the fine print that troubles mere mortals. This January, when Obama at long last created a jobs council, he appointed Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of G.E., to lead it. The Times did the due diligence the White House didn’t and found that G.E. paid essentially no U.S. taxes on $14.2 billion of profit, even as it has shed one fifth of its American workforce since 2002. Were Immelt creating more new American jobs in his new administration role than he has at G.E., perhaps we could understand why Obama kept him on. But his only visible achievement has been to co-write a “progress report” on his efforts for The Wall Street Journal op-ed page in June. It read like a patronizing corporate annual report aimed at small shareholders—a boilerplate wish list of bullet points followed by a promise that “a more strategic view” would be unveiled by September, a full nine months after he took his assignment. Maybe he and the president can hash it out this summer on the Vineyard.

A recent poll put Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney! The savior of the working stiff!

The roots of Obama’s capture by the corporate axis of influence inexorably trace back to his own personal Zelig, the former Clinton Treasury secretary and Harvard Corporation stalwart Robert Rubin. In The Audacity of Hope, published in late 2006, Obama called Rubin, then busily cheerleading the excessive risk at Citigroup, “one of the more thoughtful and unassuming people I know.” Two years later, when Citi cratered and threatened to take the economy with it, Rubin demonstrated his unassuming thoughtfulness by denying that he had anything to do with the toxic investments that cost taxpayers a $45 billion bailout and 52,000 Citi employees their jobs.

In his unseemly revolving-door career, Rubin not once but twice sped the Citi apocalypse—first in government, where he and his eventual successor as Treasury secretary, Larry Summers, championed the deregulatory policies that facilitated the consolidation of too-big-to-fail banks, and then in his $15 million-a-year role as Citi’s “guru,” where, by his own later account, he had no idea what was in the worthless paper the bank peddled to greedy dupes. You’d think Obama would have dumped him faster than he did the Reverend Wright, but that’s misreading him. Obama is preternaturally secure on thorny matters of race—as his magnificent speech on the subject made clear—and could distance himself from his preacher with no ambivalence. It’s “unassuming” braininess that’s his blind spot.

And so a parade of Rubin acolytes entered the White House, led by Geithner, a nearly lifelong civil servant so identified with the financial Establishment that even Mayor Bloomberg mistakenly introduced him as a Goldman alumnus at a public event in New York last year. It’s Geithner’s influence on policy, however, not his persona, that proved fateful. Not until March 2010 did the White House get its first explicit, modest jobs bill through Congress.

Obama had taken office at a true populist moment that demanded more than this. People were gagging over their looted 401(k)s and underwater homes, the AIG bonuses, and the bailouts. Howard Dean rage has never been Obama’s style—hope-and-change was an elegant oratorical substitute—and had he given full voice to the public mood, he would have been pilloried as an “angry black man.” But Obama didn’t have to play Huey Long. He could have pursued a sober but determined execution of justice and an explicit, major jobs initiative—of which there have been exactly none, the too-small stimulus included, to the present day.


By failing to address that populist anger, Obama gave his enemies the opening to co-opt it and turn it against him. Which the tea party did, dishonestly but brilliantly, misrepresenting Obama’s health-care-reform crusade as yet another attempt by the elites to screw the taxpayer. (The Democrats haplessly reinforced the charge with marathon behind-the-scenes negotiations with insurance and pharmaceutical-­industry operatives.) Once the health-care law was signed, the president still slighted the unemployment crisis. A once-hoped-for WPA-style public-works program, unloved by Geithner, had been downsized in the original stimulus, and now a tardy, halfhearted stab at a $50 billion transportation-infrastructure jobs bill produced a dandy Obama speech but nothing else.

Obama soon retreated into the tea-party mantra of fiscal austerity. Short-term spending cuts when spending is needed to create jobs make no sense economically. But they also make no sense politically. The deficit has never been a top voter priority, no matter how loudly the right claims it is. At Obama’s inaugural, Gallup found that 11 percent of voters ranked unemployment as their top priority while only 2 percent did the deficit. Unemployment has remained a stable public priority over the deficit ever since, usually by at least a 2-to-1 ratio. In a CBS poll immediately after the Democrats’ “shellacking” of last November—a debacle supposedly precipitated by the tea party’s debt jihad—the question “What should Congress concentrate on in January?” yielded 56 percent for “economy/jobs” and 4 percent for “deficit reduction.”

Geithner has pushed deficit reduction as a priority since before the inauguration, the Washington Post recently reported in an article greeted as a smoking gun by liberal bloggers. But Obama is the chief executive. It’s his fault, no one else’s, that he seems diffident about the unemployed. Each time there’s a jolt in the jobless numbers, he and his surrogates compound that profile by farcically reshuffling the same clichés, from “stuck in a ditch” to “headwinds” (first used by Geithner in March 2009—retire it already!) to “bumps in the road.” It’s true the administration has caught few breaks and the headwinds have been strong, but voters have long since tuned out this monotonous apologia. The White House’s repeated argument that the stimulus saved as many as 3 million jobs, accurate though it may be, is another nonstarter when 14 million Americans are looking for work.

In early June, the unemployment rate—7.8 percent when Obama took office and as high as 10.1 percent during his tenure—ticked upward to 9.1 percent. That cued a ubiquitous press refrain that no president since FDR has been reelected with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent (as it stood when Reagan overcame a recession to win in 1984). Later that month, a plurality in a Bloomberg survey said the economy was worse now than when Obama took office.

The ultimate indignity, though, was a Washington Post / ABC News poll showing Obama in a dead heat with Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney! If any belief unites our polarized nation, it’s the conviction that Romney is the most transparent phony in either party, no matter how much he’s now deaccessioning hair products. It’s also been a Beltway truism that a Mormon can’t win the Republican nomination, let alone a Massachusetts governor who devised the prototype for “ObamaCare.” But that political calculus changed overnight. That this poseur could so quickly gain traction, even if evanescently, should alarm Obama.

It was on Monday, June 13, that the new state of play crystallized. That morning, Immelt unveiled his vacuous op-ed and rendezvoused with Obama in Durham, North Carolina, for a double-feature dog-and-pony show: a meeting of the otherwise invisible White House jobs council (only its second to date) and yet another small-bore presidential photo op promoting yet another green-tech employer illustrating the latest dim-wattage administration slogan, “Winning the Future.” Unfortunately for the White House, the Times front page delivered another message above the fold that morning: OBAMA SEEKS TO WIN BACK WALL ST. CASH. Among the objects of Obama’s affection interviewed was an unnamed Democratic financier who found it ironic that “the same president who once criticized bankers as ‘fat cats’ would now invite them to dine at Daniel, where the six-course tasting menu runs to $195 a person.”

That Monday morning was also when Romney unleashed a web video startling in its brazenness. Mockingly titled “Bump in the Road,” it dispatched a diverse parade of unemployed Americans (or actors impersonating them) to a desert, where each in turn plaintively announced in close-up, “I’m an American, not a bump in the road.” Though Romney (wisely) stayed offscreen, the ad cast him in the unlikely role of Tom Joad leading the downtrodden dust-bowl masses to salvation. Hours later, Romney aced that night’s first major GOP presidential debate by again offering himself as an economic savior. His jobs plan? “Keep government in its place” and let “the energy and passion of the American people create a brighter future.”

No one doubts that Romney is a shape-shifter par excellence, whether on abortion, health care, cap and trade, or the Detroit bailout (which he predicted would speed GM and Chrysler to their doom). In his last presidential run, he was caught fabricating both his prowess as a hunter and a nonexistent civil-rights march starring his father and Martin Luther King. But to masquerade as a latter-day FDR is a new high in chutzpah even by his standards. The only examples he can cite as a job creator are his “turnaround” of the Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002 and his ability to grow Bain Capital, the private-equity firm he founded, from “ten employees to hundreds.”

By failing to address populist anger, Obama gave his enemies the opening to co-opt it and turn it against him. Which the tea party did, dishonestly but brilliantly.

The most significant workers he added to the payroll in Salt Lake City were sixteen lobbyists, at a cost of nearly $4 million, to solicit taxpayers’ subsidies—“more federal cash than any previous U.S. Olympics,” according to The Wall Street Journal. That’s hard to square with Romney’s current stand that jobs will bloom across the land if government stops giving any handouts (even to tornado victims, he said in the GOP debate) and lets the free market work its magic. As for his fifteen years in the corporate-buyout business, he was best known for the jobs Bain shredded at the once-profitable companies it took over and then demolished for parts.

It’s a record Romney perennially tries to cover up. It may have cost him his Senate race against Ted Kennedy in 1994. In that campaign, Romney was stalked by a “Truth Squad” of striking workers from a Marion, Indiana, paper plant who had lost jobs, wages, health care, and pensions after Ampad, a Bain subsidiary, took control. Ampad eventually went bankrupt, but Bain walked away with $100 million for its $5 million investment. It was an all-too-typical Romney story, which is why Mike Huckabee could nail him with his memorable 2008 wisecrack: “I want to be a president who reminds you of the guy you work with, not the guy who laid you off.” Stephen Colbert recently topped Huckabee, portraying Romney as a cross between Gordon Gekko and Jack Kevorkian because of the profitable mercy killings of companies in Bain’s care. When Romney was governor, his record was no better. A Northeastern University analysis of his term (2003–6) found that Massachusetts was one of only two states to have no growth in their labor forces. The other was Louisiana, which happened to have an excuse named Katrina.

That Romney thinks he can pass himself off as the working stiff’s savior and Obama as the second coming of the out-of-touch patrician George H.W. Bush of 1992 truly turns reality on its head. Obama’s palling around with Rubinistas may be too much for his administration’s or the American people’s good, but Romney is a bona fide plutocrat whose financial backers include David Koch and whose idea of a joke was to tell a group of out-of-work Floridians on the campaign trail, “I’m also unemployed.” Yet so far, Romney is getting away with it, and the Republican Establishment, smelling a savior, is happy to embrace and embroider his proletarian masquerade. Peggy Noonan recently anointed this well-connected son of a Detroit CEO and Michigan governor a “self-made” financial success. Should the ersatz Horatio Alger end up on a ticket with a right-wing pseudo-populist—Michele Bachmann, unlike Romney, is quite at ease with bashing Wall Street—it’s not inconceivable he could ride a sputtering recovery further than anyone expects.

There’s not much Obama can do to alter the economy by 2012, given the debt-ceiling fight, the long campaign, and nihilistic Capitol Hill antagonists opposed to any government spending that might create jobs and, by extension, help Obama keep his own. But the central question before the nation couldn’t be clearer: Who pays? The taxpayers bailed out the elite; now it’s the elite’s turn to return the favor. Massive cuts to the safety net combined with scant sacrifice from those at the top is wrong ethically and politically. It is, in the truest sense, un-American. Obama knows this, and he hit a welcome note last week when he urged some higher corporate taxes for hedge funds and the like. But his forays in this direction are tentative and sporadic. You have to wonder why he isn’t seizing the moment to articulate and fight for the big picture instead of playing a lose-lose game of rope-a-dope with the Republicans on their budgetary turf.

Some Obama fans think it’s tactical genius that’s holding him back—his fabled long ball. Americans are no longer as angry as they were in January 2009 so much as they are defeated, depressed, and jaded by the slow recovery and by four decades of raging inequality that tells them the deck is stacked no matter who’s in Washington. Better, then, not to ruffle these still waters—or those easily rattled independents fetishized by political consultants—and instead scare seniors about imminent Medicare cutbacks and plot deep-think policy initiatives that (like health-care reform) might fix America over time. But the voters’ placidity hardly augurs well for Democratic turnout in 2012. And it may not last. All that’s required is one more economic panic to shatter the phony peace and whip the rage back to center stage, once again to the right’s advantage.

“A nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous,” Obama declared at his inauguration. What he said on that bright January morning is no less true or stirring now. For all his failings since, he is the only one who can make this case. There’s nothing but his own passivity to stop him from doing so—and from shaking up the administration team that, well beyond the halfway-out-the-door Geithner and his Treasury Department, has showered too many favors on the prosperous. This will mean turning on his own cadre of the liberal elite. But it’s essential if he is to call the bluff of a fake man-of-the-people like Romney. To differentiate himself from the discredited Establishment, he will have to mount the fight he has ducked for the past three years.

The alternative is a failure of historic proportions. Those who gamed the economy to near devastation—so much so that the nation turned to an untried young leader in desperation and in hope—would once again inherit the Earth. Unless and until there’s a purging of the crimes that brought our president to his unlikely Inauguration Day, much more in America than the second term of his administration will be at stake.
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:15 pm

.

Dean Baker meets Ron Paul, in a way.

Federal Reserve could wipe out more than a tenth of the national debt by changing an accounting entry.

I know monetarist hardcores will think it a recipe for disaster.

My main problem with all of it is not that the money was created, but how it was spent: to keep the bankster beast afloat, to burn distant countries, to accumulate more weapons and bases of war. This was the money that could have built, or started building, a sustainable economy.

I think Baker's point about the absurdity of the debt ceiling "debate" still stands.


http://counterpunch.org/baker07072011.html

July 7, 2011

Ron Paul vs. the Federal Reserve
Central Bankers and Budget Deficits


By DEAN BAKER


Ron Paul is a long-serving representative in the U.S. Congress. He is a committed libertarian who is now embarking on his third presidential campaign. He has built up a devoted political following over the years.

While many of his ideas are outside of the mainstream, that doesn't mean that they do not deserve to be taken seriously. As a solution to the impasse over the debt ceiling in the United States, Mr. Paul suggested that the Federal Reserve Board destroy the $1.6 trillion in government bonds that it currently holds. This act would put the government far below its $14.3 trillion debt ceiling providing perhaps two more years before any action needs to be taken to raise the ceiling again.

Destroying $1.6 trillion in government debt might seem far-fetched, but it actually makes a great deal of sense. The Fed acquired this huge stock of debt through its policy of quantitative easing. This was an effort to try to provide further stimulus to the economy once the short-term lending rate had already been pushed to zero. Since the short-term rate could not go any lower, the Fed bought up several trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities and government bonds in order to directly lower long-term interest rates.

While the mortgage-backed securities are debt from private parties to the Fed, since the Fed is an agency of the U.S government, the bonds held by the Fed are literally money that the government owes to itself. In fact, each year the Fed refunds back to the Treasury the interest earned on its assets in excess of its operating costs. This means that the interest that this is paid on the bonds held by the Fed is effectively interest that the government is paying itself.

In this context, it is very difficult to see any downside in eliminating a bookkeeping entry. The Fed would lose $1.6 trillion in assets and the government would lose $1.6 trillion in liabilities and suddenly be far below the debt limit.

In addition to the short-term benefit of getting around the standoff on the debt ceiling, this move also has the great long-term benefit of reducing the government's future interest burden. While the bonds do not create any net interest burden as long as they are held by the Fed, the plan is for the Fed to sell them off as the economy recovers. The Fed would do this to pull reserves out of the banking system, limiting its lending ability and thereby preventing inflation.

Once the bonds are in the hands of the private sector, they do create an interest burden for the government. While the Fed is currently expected to refund $80 billion to the Treasury in 2011, in 2017 it is projected to refund just $33 billion. The difference of $47 billion is lost revenue to the government.

However if the Fed destroys the bonds that it currently holds then the interest on this debt can never be a burden to the government. The bonds would cease this exist.

This would mean that the Fed would not be able to sell bonds to pull reserves out of the banking system. However it can accomplish the same result with a different tool. It can simply raise the reserve requirement, forcing banks to hold a larger fraction of their deposits on reserve.

Raising the reserve requirement can be just as effective as reducing the quantity of reserves in limiting lending. If the amount of reserves in the banking system is doubled, and the reserve requirement is also, then the banking system will just be able to make the same amount of loans. The big difference between these two paths is that the government would not have to pay as much interest on its debt, in the case where the volume of lending is limited by higher reserve requirements.

This is in effect exactly what we should want to see in this situation. The reason that the U.S. government and other governments are running large deficits is because of the collapse in private sector spending. The deficits are supporting output and employment by filling the gap in demand. In normal times, deficits may be pulling away resources from the private sector and crowding out investment; this is not the case in the downturn. The deficit is sustaining demand and therefore most likely increasing private sector investment.

The one downside to this story is that the deficit is creating a tax burden for the future. However if the government destroys the debt issued to finance its spending in the downturn, then the debt need not ever pose a tax burden.

The idea of effectively getting money for free may seem peculiar, but that is exactly the story of an economy that is below its full employment level of output. In such circumstances, the economy is not supply constrained. If there is more demand, there will be more output. The real waste in this context is the failure of the government to spend. In that case workers who have the skills and desire to work go unemployed and factories and other facilities go idle.

Representative Paul's proposal provides exactly the sort of mechanism that we should want to see in this situation. It allows the government to generate the demand needed to push the economy back toward full employment, without creating a major debt burden for future generations of taxpayers.

Now, this may not be exactly how Mr. Paul viewed his proposal. After all, he has a long history of hostility to the Fed as an institution. Two years ago he wrote a book titled End the Fed. But Mr. Paul's motives don't matter. This is a proposal that deserves to be taken seriously not just for the Fed, but by other central banks as well. The debt incurred to boost economies out of recessions should not place a burden on future taxpayers and we know how to prevent this from happening.

Dean Baker is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). He is the author of Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy and False Profits: Recoverying From the Bubble Economy.

This article originally appeared in the International Relations and Security Network.

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby The Consul » Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:24 pm

So there are, I guess, NGO's in a fee position on this 1.6T of quantative easing. Where else would the resistance come from to such an obvious accounting fix?
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:45 pm

.

NGOs? Who do you mean?

Banks, I daresay. The Fed intending to sell this store of T-bills off will mean US will have to offer higher interest rates for current issues to compete with the sale of its own notes. (How will enough buyers appear to cover both Fed sales and new borrowing?!)

I've seen it variously attributed to Edison and to Ford, the observation that a government-issued note that says 5 dollars should actually be as good as one that says 5 dollars plus interest in the future. I really do believe the difference is in what the printing is for.

However, the "resistance" to such an idea comes from its inconceivability under the present ideology. The Fed is never going to do this. Moody's & Co. will call it a default!

.

Catch-up on items of interest:


http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/bl ... print=true


JP Morgan Chase Fine: Another Slap on the Wrist for Wall Street
Taibblog
by: Matt Taibbi

SEC Enforcement Director and former Deustche Bank general counsel Robert Khuzami
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Courtesy of my good friend Eric Salzman comes this latest outrage – SEC Enforcement Director and former Deustche Bank general counsel Robert Khuzami boasting about the latest slap on the wrist directed at a major bank, this time a $228 million fine of JP Morgan Chase for a bid-rigging scheme involving municipal bonds. The Chase ruling is the latest to come down in a series of fines involving a number of banks, including Bank of America and UBS.

This is one of the best examples we’ve had yet of the profound difference in the style of criminal justice enforcement for the very rich and connected, versus the style of justice for everyone else. This scam that Chase, Bank of America and UBS were involved with was no different in any way, really, from old-school mafia-style bid-rigging scams.

What these banks did is they got together and carved up territory between them, arranging things so that they wouldn’t be bidding against each other in municipal debt auctions. That means the 18 different states involved in these 93-odd deals all got screwed out of the best prices, leaving the taxpayers in those places severely overcharged for their public borrowing.

This is absolutely no different from what mafia groups in New York used to (and probably still do) do for public contracts – the proverbial five families would get together, divide up the boroughs and neighborhoods between them, and each family would individually buy or intimidate their way into the bidding process, corrupting the game so that the public had to overpay for their garbage collection or their construction labor or whatever. The only difference here is that we’re talking about debt, not garbage. But the concept is exactly the same; it’s the same crime.

If Khuzami’s defendants had been a bunch of Italians from Howard Beach, they would be facing RICO charges and would be looking at years in prison, plus seizure of all their ill-gotten gains, in addition to civil suits and penalties.

As it is, as my friend Eric points out, the endgame for banks like Chase is, “Admit nothing, pay two hours of revenue and all good!”

You don’t have to take my word for it. Go back for yourselves and look through bid-rigging cases in the past. If you see a bunch of Italian names in the list of defendants (see here for instance), you can pretty much guarantee that there’s a RICO prosecution involved.

But if the defendants are a bunch of Ivy-League educated bankers from Wall Street, what we end up getting is a negligible fine (officials will brag about this $228 million, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to what the banks make scamming communities and governments) and, as always, no admission of guilt. This is how the SEC’s own press release reads:

Without admitting or denying the allegations in the SEC’s complaint, JPMS has consented to the entry of a final judgment enjoining it from future violations of Section 15(c)(1)(A) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 …

That the settlement includes language like this is another gift to the banks. Allowing Chase to settle without admitting guilt leaves the conned states and localities facing an uphill climb in any attempt to recoup more money through litigation.

The Chase/UBS/BofA case is a close relative of cases like the Jefferson County, Alabama business, in the sense that the game here involves corrupt local officials selling out to banks, with both parties making the taxpayer the mark in a scheme to overcharge him for debt he never voted to incur. It is a classic modern Wall Street scam, in that people in these states were victimized without ever even knowing that they were robbed.

How would the California resident have any way of quantifying how much money he personally loses when Chase cheats his state out of true bids in municipal bond auctions? When his taxes get raised five years from now to pay off this artificially inflated debt, will he have any clue what’s behind the increases? By the time anyone figures it out, in the very rare case that anyone does, it's five or ten years after the banks have paid out the bonuses to the guilty parties.

Moreover, this particular scheme also targets the federal government, which normally taxes the proceeds of investment earnings from tax-exempt bonds. Now, they collect less in taxes. You can bet, when the Tea Party starts calling for NPR and food stamps to be sacrificed to reduce the deficit, that nobody will be bringing up the tax revenue Chase, UBS and BofA swindled the Treasury out of in these bid-rigging schemes.

This kind of thing goes on all the time and it’s only in the most extreme cases, like for instance when people in Alabama end up paying 500 percent of their normal sewer bill to pay off some dirty financing deal, that we ever find out about it. It’s not going to stop until people start doing hard time for these crimes, and it looks like we’re still a very long way from that.




Interesting article tracks decline in illegal immigration from Mexico. It is attributed to fewer jobs and worse conditions in US, more legal temporary migration programs, more legal immigration via family invitation, higher education levels in Mexico, reluctance to deal with the drug gangs that now control the passage, and I think, most important of all, a decline in the birth rate resulting in smaller families.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011 ... nted=print

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:03 pm

.

cross-posting from Egypt thread, more fuck-the-creditors rhetoric:



http://counterpunch.org/walberg07082011.html

Weekend Edition
July 8 - 10, 2011

Time to Default?
Egypt vs. the IMF


By ERIC WALBERG

It is no secret that Egypt has put all its faith in the US and Western international institutions since the days of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, contracting a huge foreign debt, a process that was increasingly corrupt, despite being careful watched over by those very agencies. This debt is financed by foreign banks, and must be repaid in dollars -- with interest. If much of the money they create and then "lend" is siphoned off into Swiss bank accounts, that is Egypt's problem. No one is trying to charge the people who gave Mubarak or his henchmen their money and then let them re-deposit it with them, but it takes two to tango.

Whether or not a fraction of it actually helps the Ahmeds in the meantime, it is the Egyptian people who are held responsible for it all and must comply with IMF "adjustment programmes", involving privatisation, deregulation, regressive taxation, an end to subsidies to the poor, and much more unpleasant "tough love".

Egypt's revolution momentarily shattered the complacency of this devilish scenario. The explosion under the weight of the grinding poverty the system produced caught the Western bankers and political leaders by surprise and they hurried to embrace the revolution and co-opt it when they realised it was inevitable. This culminated in the IMF's offer of the loan to cover the yawning gap in Egypt's first post-revolution budget, which will double the lowest salaries, improve social services and introduce a progressive income tax.

This unusual gesture of generosity by the IMF (a low interest rate and supposedly no strings attached) was really intended to keep Egypt from straying from the orthodox monetary fold, as other countries have done in the past in similar situations. It was enthusiastically supported by Egypt's elite, largely trained at US universities in the arcana of monetary theory. "Otherwise, Egypt was about to be considered in default," Hani Genena, senior economist at Pharos Holding for Investments told Al-Ahram Weekly. This is precisely what countries such as Russia, Argentina and Ecuador have done in the past.

The Higher Council of the Armed Forces, Egypt's de facto ruler, was not impressed with assurances that the loans were "without conditions", and General Sameh Sadeq told the government to cancel the loan, with its "five conditions that totally went against the principles of national sovereignty" which would "burden future generations". Finance Minister Samir Radwan complied and hastily negotiated funds from Qatar and Saudi Arabia (countries with their own agendas for Egypt's revolution) to plug the remaining hole. The spurned lover, the IMF, and its sidekick the World Bank, were not pleased. The latter said it would have to "review" its financial plans for Egypt.

As news of the loan tiff was breaking, US Senators John McCain, Joe Lieberman and John Kerry visited Cairo to offer their gift to the revolution: a bill in Congress to create "economic assistance funds" for Egypt and Tunisia. Recall McCain's presidential campaign slogan to "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!", and his and Lieberman's militant support of Israel. If anything, their visit merely confirmed to Egypt's military leaders the need to keep the IMF and its henchmen at bay.

Another visitor to Cairo last week was Mahatir Mohamed, who turned Malaysia into an economic powerhouse after extricating it from its colonial past. When his "tiger" economy was subverted by speculators in 1997, he stopped the run on the Malaysian currency and stabilised the economy without going to the IMF cap in hand, and Malaysia survived the crisis much better than the other "Asian tigers" who bowed to IMF pressure. "Malaysians refused the IMF and World Bank's assistance because we wanted our economic decisions to be independent," he told reports in Cairo this week proudly -- music to Field Marshall Mohamed Tantawi's ears.

In fact, many observers are convinced the army's decision was in response to the same popular anger and national pride that allowed Mahatir to successfully defy the bankers in his day. "I felt a surge of pride when I heard the loan was rejected," University of Cairo employee Mohamed Shaban told the Weekly. Egyptians intuitively understand Mayer Rothschild's principle: "Give me control of a nation's currency and I care not who makes her laws." Egypt's military leaders understand this too.

The process of petitioning the grudging financial centres of Zurich and London to recover at best a tiny fraction of the stolen billions that were stashed abroad and thus are responsible for an outsize part of Egypt's foreign debt will take decades and yield precious little besides huge legal costs, as the experience of the Philippines and Indonesia shows.

Egypt indeed could consider defaulting on what is called in financial jargon an "odious debt", referring to the national debt incurred by a regime for purposes that do not serve the best interests of the nation. The US did this to tear up Iraq's debt in 2003. Ecuador did it in 2009. The latter (unlike the US in Iraq) even in compliance with international law. Greek citizens have already formed an Audit Committee to establish which parts of the national debt are "odious" or otherwise illegitimate.

But such a radical step would bring the collective wrath of the powerful world financial elite down on Egypt and is not an easy option. There is no longer a Soviet Union to turn to, as there was in the time of Nasser, when he dared defy the empire.

But neither is there any need to leave Egypt's budgetary financing up to an elite of world bankers. Once a government realises that money is just a convention, something that it can use responsibly to grease the wheels of the economy, to generate employment and incomes, using the nation's wealth for the people, it can responsibly create what money it needs, keeping a careful eye on what will increase production and wealth without putting too much pressure on prices. Taxation returns this money that the government in effect "loaned" to itself interest-free.

Michael Hudson, president of the Institute for the Study of Long Term Economic Trends and adviser to the Russian, Japanese and Icelandic governments, argues that Egypt has a "much broader choice" than Western governments in pursuing an independent financial and economic reform, as it still has nationally-owned commercial banks. It could set up a Recovery Fund for the Revolution without any need to borrow from anyone, using Egypt's millions of unemployed -- a force that can move mountains -- as collateral, to create jobs which will automatically repay the money the government creates in new income and more tax revenue.

The plan to bring Toshka back to life by redistributing land to peasants and providing them with start-up capital is a perfect example of what must be done. There is no reason to "borrow" this money, especially from other countries, and worse yet to pay them interest. After all, investment in the country's future is a risk that should be equally share by both the giver and taker of loans, in compliance with sharia law.

Hudson's associates at the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability, the Levy Economics Institute, and the Center for Full Employment and Equity are now preparing a report for the Asian Development Bank on alternative monetary and fiscal policies to promote full employment and price stability without relying on IMF/WB funding.

Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly You can reach him at http://ericwalberg.com/
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby eyeno » Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:06 pm

So, vanclosekid, jackriddler, what do you see in the crystal ball?

Will we have a default on the Euro and the U.S. Dollar to usher in the world currency?
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jul 13, 2011 9:15 pm

eyeno wrote:So, vanclosekid, jackriddler, what do you see in the crystal ball?

Will we have a default on the Euro and the U.S. Dollar to usher in the world currency?


That question is rather from left field for me.

Some euro countries may default, but the euro may survive as a Franc-Deutschemark combo.

The EU made a gigantic mistake (intentionally) to put capitalism before democracy, and to create a common currency and bank without empowering the only democratic institution it has (the parliament). The euro may fall apart, but it won't be the end of the world.

Unless the Tea Party wing gets their wet dream, the USD won't default, since it can print. (The debate with regard to the dollar is over loss of confidence in the currency causing hyperinflation, not default per se.)

There won't be a world currency unless the BRICs start one using their excess dollars.

As usual, I don't actually know. The more I've learned about these subjects, the less I do!

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby Saurian Tail » Wed Jul 13, 2011 10:04 pm

FYI ... fascinating Citibank and BOA documents discussing potential impact of US Gov't default at the link below.

RE: US Default ... I don't think it has ever been discussed this openly. My thought on this is that since there is a near zero chance the debt situation is going to improve, every year they will consider default as a more realistic option. Like Chekov's gun, it's out there now so sooner or later the trigger is bound to get pulled.

Wall Street Warns Congress: The Economy Post-Default Is A Man Post-'Suicide'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/1 ... 1310586684

WASHINGTON -- Financial markets have yet to take a dive over Congress's inability to raise the nation's debt ceiling, likely because of repeated assurances from Washington that a resolution will be reached.

But time for negotiations is not infinite. In several recent reports, analysts at some the nation's largest banks are resorting to truly hyperbolic terms in an effort to warn lawmakers and investors alike about the fallout of the debt limit being breached.

"Asking what the U.S. economy might look like after a possible U.S. Treasury default is akin to asking 'what will you do after you commit suicide,' " wrote Steven Wieting, Managing Director in the Economic and Market Analysis team of Citigroup, in a July 11, 2011 report.

"It's still nearly unthinkable," he added, running through a scenario in which government spending was slashed by $100 billion per month, checks from the Treasury were drastically cut, Social Security payments were chopped down $25 billion per month and payments for military personnel salaries essentially froze. "We doubt that even the most extremist of policymakers believes that private economic activity will immediately fill the void left by so large a drop in these deficit-financed 'income' streams. Their many constituents would let them know the personal impact whatever the perceived benefits."

continued ...

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:43 am

Saurian Tail wrote:FYI ... fascinating Citibank and BOA documents discussing potential impact of US Gov't default at the link below.

RE: US Default ... I don't think it has ever been discussed this openly. My thought on this is that since there is a near zero chance the debt situation is going to improve, every year they will consider default as a more realistic option. Like Chekov's gun, it's out there now so sooner or later the trigger is bound to get pulled.

Wall Street Warns Congress: The Economy Post-Default Is A Man Post-'Suicide'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/1 ... 1310586684

WASHINGTON -- Financial markets have yet to take a dive over Congress's inability to raise the nation's debt ceiling, likely because of repeated assurances from Washington that a resolution will be reached.

But time for negotiations is not infinite. In several recent reports, analysts at some the nation's largest banks are resorting to truly hyperbolic terms in an effort to warn lawmakers and investors alike about the fallout of the debt limit being breached.

"Asking what the U.S. economy might look like after a possible U.S. Treasury default is akin to asking 'what will you do after you commit suicide,' " wrote Steven Wieting, Managing Director in the Economic and Market Analysis team of Citigroup, in a July 11, 2011 report.

"It's still nearly unthinkable," he added, running through a scenario in which government spending was slashed by $100 billion per month, checks from the Treasury were drastically cut, Social Security payments were chopped down $25 billion per month and payments for military personnel salaries essentially froze. "We doubt that even the most extremist of policymakers believes that private economic activity will immediately fill the void left by so large a drop in these deficit-financed 'income' streams. Their many constituents would let them know the personal impact whatever the perceived benefits."

continued ...



it may be cloaked in "analysis" but they're just parroting the Teleprompter in chief's threats or cliff notes, no? basically saying that the US is not Argentina. "pay up or die", something like that.

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:02 am

JackRiddler wrote:
eyeno wrote:So, vanclosekid, jackriddler, what do you see in the crystal ball?

Will we have a default on the Euro and the U.S. Dollar to usher in the world currency?


That question is rather from left field for me.

Some euro countries may default, but the euro may survive as a Franc-Deutschemark combo.

...


the marriage of Merkel and Sarko? hell and hell. wonder what Blake would say to that.

JackRiddler wrote:
The EU made a gigantic mistake (intentionally) to put capitalism before democracy, and to create a common currency and bank without empowering the only democratic institution it has (the parliament). The euro may fall apart, but it won't be the end of the world.

...


can you make an intentional mistake? apart from that i don't think that empowering the parliament would have made much of a difference, look at the US or Greece. parliaments are cheap. and i agree that it won't be the end of the world but it'll be pretty gnarly none the less.

JackRiddler wrote:
Unless the Tea Party wing gets their wet dream, the USD won't default, since it can print. (The debate with regard to the dollar is over loss of confidence in the currency causing hyperinflation, not default per se.)

...


default is a tea party dream? hadn't heard that. have to admit i don't hear much of what they say. whatever the scenario: default, hyperinflation etc., we're only talking different levels of pain and suffering on the part of the have nots. none of them'll really hurt the haves so they have no worries on that account. the game is rigged. but once you realize that every way out hurts you might be able to take seriously the idea that removing the haves whatever the hurt is the better option all around. (and the chances of that are?)

JackRiddler wrote:

There won't be a world currency unless the BRICs start one using their excess dollars.

As usual, I don't actually know. The more I've learned about these subjects, the less I do!

.


there might be in the aftermath of an all out war and horrifying body count and the subsequent division of spoils and territory (among the remaining corporations). global reset as part of the peace process. a new Bretton Woods. isn't that the talk of the town? a world currency that will end all future wars and guarantee peace for ever and ever and ever... universal brotherly love with one anthem and one flag and one führer, etc.

what do i know? my crystal ball is more than 15 minutes off :fawked:

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:42 am

Can the eurozone survive the Greek debt crisis?

If Greece defaults on its debts, the consequences could spread across Europe, and prove catastrophic for the euro

John Lanchester
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 July 2011 20.01 BST

The economic crisis in Greece is the most important thing to have happened in Europe since the Balkan wars. That isn't because Greece is economically central to the European order: at barely 3% of eurozone GDP, the Greek economy could vanish without trace and scarcely be missed by anyone else. The dangers posed by the imminent Greek default are all to do with how it happens.

I speak of the Greek default as a sure thing because it is: the markets are pricing Greek government debt as if it has already defaulted. This in itself is a huge deal, because the euro was built on the assumption that no country in it would ever default, and as a result there is no precedent and, more important still, no mechanism for what is about to happen. The prospective default could come in any one of several different flavours. From everybody's perspective, the best of them would be what is known as a "voluntary rollover". In that scenario, the institutions that are owed money by the Greek government will swallow heavily and, when their loan is due to be repaid, will permit their borrowings to be rolled over into another long loan. There is a gun-to-the-side-of-the-head aspect to this "voluntary" deal, since the relevant institutions are under enormous governmental pressure to comply and are also faced with the fact that if they say no, they will have triggered a proper default, which means their loans will plummet in value and they'll end up worse off. The deal on offer is: lend us more money, or lose most of the money you have already lent.

This is, at the moment, the best-case scenario and the current plan A. It reflects the failure of the original plan A, which involved lending the government of George Papandreou €110bn in May last year in return for a promise to cut government spending and increase tax revenue, both by unprecedented amounts. The joint European Central Bank-EU-IMF loan was necessary because, in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, Greece was exposed as having an economy based on phoney data and cheap credit. The cheap credit had now dried up, and Greece was faced with the simplest and worst economic predicament of any government: it couldn't pay its debts.

There is a good moment in one of the otherwise terrible Star Trek movies, in which Spock quotes "an ancient Vulcan proverb": "Only Nixon could go to China." Similarly, it is probably true that only George Papandreou could confront the fundamental economic structure of the modern Greek state, since his father, Andreas, did more than anyone else to build it. Greece joined the EEC in 1981, the same year that he became prime minister, and subsequently the Greek government created a client state in which direct subsidies and transfers from the EEC were supplemented by easy loans from western European banks. Money poured into Greece, and was used to fund a huge boom in public-sector jobs, most of them linked to political patronage. Various forms of corruption permeated the system, where cash gifts in fakelaki or "little envelopes" were a fact of life, and where, crucially, the rich regarded paying tax as something that only the poor and stupid would ever choose to do. This latter fact meant that Greece was in certain vital respects a country without a functioning version of the social contract. To outside observers, all this was largely familiar, but the younger Papandreou, on becoming prime minister in 2009, was the first prominent Greek politician to admit it and promise to challenge it head-on. "Corruption, cronyism, clientelistic politics; a lot of money was wasted basically through these types of practices." Papandreou's admission was jaw-dropping: everyone knew it was true, but since when do prominent politicians say very unpopular things which everyone knows to be true? The EU lent Greece the money to see Papandreou through his programme of cuts and crossed its fingers that this would buy enough time for the deficit to narrow – the deficit being the gap between what Greece was spending and what it was raising in tax.

That was the old plan A, and it didn't work. Papandreou made deep cuts across public-sector spending, but two things went wrong. One, the Greek economy kept crashing. Economists have varying theories about the practical effects of "austerity", meaning sharp cuts in public spending. To an outsider, it's a little alarming how much they differ about something so big and basic. But if you ignore the economics and look at the history, it seems to be the case that you can't simply cut your way to growth. Holding public spending flat while other parts of the economy grow is historically a more valid model – and, by the way, holding public spending flat is in itself a huge struggle, being roughly what Margaret Thatcher did in the UK. So the first problem was that the Greek cuts led to a worsening of the Greek predicament: the economy kept contracting, and unemployment hit a record high of 16.2%. The second problem was that those richer Greeks who had never fancied paying their taxes showed no increased desire to do so, and, much worse, the state showed no new ability or desire to make them. Without the ability to raise more tax, the old plan A was invalid.

So this is the new plan A: the Greeks borrow another €120bn, the bondholders allow their debt to be rolled over, Papandreou's government introduces further austerity measures and privatisations, rich Greeks start paying their taxes, the Greek economy recovers, and by the time the next huge chunks of debt repayment are due – from mid-2012 – Greece can afford to pay back its lenders and the crisis is over.

Does that sound plausible? It shouldn't. This scenario is somewhere on the spectrum of unlikely to impossible, because, while nobody questions Papandreou's intentions, the Greeks are showing clear signs that they are unwilling to submit to the programme. Protests against the measures began with furious far-left agitations of a sort with which ordinary Greeks are weary, but the protesters now include the Indignati, middle-class Greeks who have had enough austerity already, thanks, and who take a Dario Fo attitude to Greek debt: can't pay, won't pay. The vote on the latest round of austerity measures took place in the middle of a 48-hour general strike.

The Indignati are not stupid, and are well aware of two salient points. First, the "bailouts", as they are always called, are no such thing. Taxpayer-funded capital injections into otherwise bankrupt banks were bailouts. The Greek "bailouts" are loans, pure and simple. The money will have to be repaid, and repaid at ungenerous rates of interest: in this case, 5.2%. These short-sighted and grasping interest rates, motivated by the need to provide political cover for other governments, make an already critical problem significantly worse. The Greeks know they are being lent money just so they can work very hard for lower wages and higher taxes in order to pay it back at great cost. The outstanding Greek debt is mainly owned by French and German banks, which is why the western European governments are especially keen on the "bailout": it's helping to keep their banks solvent. The Indignati do not find that a compelling reason to embrace a decade or so of abject misery. They want the Greek government to default, and the banks to accept losses for loans they shouldn't have made in the first place.

It is that prospect that spooks everyone else in the EU, and the world economic order generally. A "voluntary" rollover would be a polite form of default, which would give the European Central Bank (ECB), the IMF and EU governments time to draw up their real plan, whatever that might be. Any abrupt form of Greek default, caused by the lenders failing to lend or the Greeks missing a bond payment, would be what is known as "disorderly", an eventuality that would play out as anything from a mild local spasm to a full-scale continent-wide meltdown, featuring the collapse first of the euro and then of the EU itself.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 was one of these "credit events". It is in their nature that they are chaotic and unpredictable, and all the more so because the fundamentals of the economic order, as constituted in 2008, are still intact. Who owns that Greek debt? As I've said, mainly French and German banks. Yes, but banks insure their debt via the use of complex financial instruments. Insure it with whom? Don't know: some of it is insured with British banks as counter-parties to the risk, but that risk will be insured in its turn, so that the identity of the person holding the parcel when its last layer of wrapping comes off is a mystery. That mysteriousness was the thing that made Lehman's collapse turn instantly into a systemic crisis.

It isn't the consequences for Greece of a Lehman-type "credit event" that worry the central bankers and governments: the risk of "contagion" throughout the eurozone is what preoccupies them. The euro was not designed to default, so when Greece does, other European countries who have had to ask for non-bailout bailouts – Ireland and Portugal – will have their ability to repay their debts questioned. If one or other of them undergoes a "rollover", or "restructuring", or "rescheduling" of its debt – all polite words for default – the next country in line will be Spain, and that is where everything changes. The ECB/EU/IMF "troika" can write a cheque and buy the Greek economy, or the Irish economy or the Portuguese economy. But Spain is the world's 12th largest economy, and the ECB can't just write a cheque and buy it. A Spanish default would destroy the credibility of the euro, and quite possibly the currency itself, at least in its current form.

The need for the eurozone to have a more robust institutional structure and crisis planning has been obvious since its creation, and especially so since the 2008 implosion. The governments established a €750bn "financial stability facility" – basically an emergency bailout fund – last year, but fiscal union and political structures to match the monetary ones are still distant. As for crisis planning, well, we're about to find out. A great deal of thought must, surely, have been given to the question of a euro default – how to minimise its consequences, how exactly to execute the "restructuring" or "rescheduling". Surely? And if a country were to be forced to leave the eurozone because it simply couldn't pay its debts, how would that work? This isn't something a country can announce in advance. If Greece said it was going to leave the euro, every single adult in the country would run, walk or crawl to the nearest bank and withdraw all their money – that's because if they leave their euros put, the euros turn into drachmas, which are worth, say, half as much. The mass withdrawal would make every bank in Greece go broke. The government would have to declare a total freeze on all bank accounts as the first step towards starting a new currency. But what would happen to all those overseas debts, still in euros? They would immediately be twice as expensive now that they would have to be repaid in devalued drachmas. So maybe the government would have no choice but to declare all its debts void.

That might sound like a recipe for disaster, but Argentina defaulted in 2002, froze the banks, declared its foreign debts void, and cut itself off from IMF funding – and since then, it's been the fastest-growing economy in fast-growing South America. (The Indignati, by the way, are well aware of this example.) But this is an extremely high-risk strategy, not just for Greece but for the whole of Europe, and to attempt it would require that a lot of planning had already taken place. We wouldn't know if it had, because these plans need to be kept secret in advance if markets aren't to bet on exploiting them. If this work hasn't happened, extensively and at levels that carry the necessary political clout to execute the plans when the default happens, the euro is odds-on to fail. However complacent and oblivious the European political elite has been, it is hard to believe everyone will turn out to have been that soundly asleep at the wheel.

From the worm's-eye perspective that most of us inhabit, the general feeling about this new turn in the economic crisis is one of bewilderment. I've encountered this in Iceland and in Ireland and in the UK: a sense of alienation and incomprehension and done-unto-ness. People feel they have very little economic or political agency, very little control over their own lives; during the boom times, nobody told them this was an unsustainable bubble until it was already too late. They didn't vote for the system, and no one explained it to them, and in any case the rule is that while things are on the way up, no one votes for Cassandra, so no one in public life plays the Cassandra role. Greece has 800,000 civil servants, of whom 150,000 are on course to lose their jobs. The very existence of those jobs may well be a symptom of the three Cs, "corruption, cronyism, clientelism", but that's not how it feels to the person in the job, who was supposed to do what? Turn down the job offer, in the absence of alternative employment, because it was somehow bad for Greece to have so many public-sector workers earning an OK living? Where is the agency in that person's life, the meaningful space for political-economic action? She is made the scapegoat, the victim, of decisions made at altitudes far above her daily life – and the same goes for all the people undergoing "austerity", not just in Greece. The austerity is supposed to be a consequence of us all having had it a little bit too easy. But the thing is, most of us don't feel we did have it particularly easy. When you combine that with the fact that we have so little real agency in our economic lives, we tend to feel we don't deserve much of the blame. This feeling, which is strong enough in Ireland and Iceland, and which will grow steadily stronger in the UK, is so strong in Greece that the country is heading for a default whose likeliest outcome, by far, is a decade of misery for ordinary Greeks.

There is one country where this disconnection between the political, the personal and the economic poses an acute threat to the world economic order. That country is Germany. The economists speak of "macro-economic imbalances", the fact that German interests and, say, Greek or Irish or Spanish interests are not in alignment. Interest rates that, during the first decade of the euro's existence, suited German manufacturers, caused toxic credit bubbles to grow in Greece and Ireland and Spain. The consequences of those credit bubbles could take another decade to unwind, 10 years of hard times for the citizens of those countries, who will spend most of it sweating to earn the tax money to pay back the German banks whose lending fuelled their bubble. German savings go to German banks to lend to other countries so that they can buy German goods from German companies who then save their earnings in German banks who lend it to . . . and so on.

This system is not elegant but it is probably sustainable, as long as German taxpayers are willing to pay for the busts and bailouts that will inevitably ensue. Their economy is so big that they can pick up these bills if they want to. As the euro's troubles go on, however, the signs are that the German electorate is becoming steadily less eager to go along with it. The downmarket German press has been asking why Germans should work until 69 to fund the retirement of Greek public-sector workers who (supposedly) knock off at 55. That's a loaded way of putting the question, but it is a good question even so, and one to which Angela Merkel is manifestly sympathetic. She has spoken more than once about the need for the private bond-holders who own Greek and other debt to take losses from their holdings and for the entire burden not to fall on ever more reluctant taxpayers.

Ultimately, however, the new German attitude has the potential to destroy the eurozone. If European monetary policy is run according to German interests, huge structural imbalances will accumulate. The Germans will then either have to pay to correct those imbalances, or agree that the euro should not be run primarily according to German interests. If they are unwilling to do either of those things, the euro can't survive. It's hard to tell what Merkel thinks about all this. She is nobody's idea of a spendthrift, happily chucking money in the direction of the undeserving poor. Whenever the question of bailouts is mentioned, Merkel acts out a pantomime of reluctance to dish out more cash. It's hard to tell whether she is really and truly this reluctant, or whether she's hamming up her unwillingness for a domestic audience that strongly dislikes the idea of bailing out work-shy southern Europeans. The fact is, though, that they are going to have to continue to do that if the euro is going to continue to exist in its current form. Germany has to put the broader European interest on the same level as its own national interest, or the euro is toast. This, if you think about it from a broad historical perspective, is quite a reversal. During the 20th century, the greatest danger to European stability was Germany's sense of its special destiny. During the 21st century, the greatest danger to European stability is Germany's reluctance to accept its special destiny. If the German taxpayer manages, however grudgingly, to accept that it's her duty to shoulder the burden, the euro will muddle through. But it won't be pretty.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... risis-euro


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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:47 am

Malaysia's Najib must abandon the Mubarak model

As Najib comes touting for UK trade, Cameron has a chance to show him strong-arm tactics against protesters are unacceptable

Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 July 2011 19.30 BST


It is not in the same league as Arab spring uprisings in Egypt and elsewhere. But Malaysia's fancifully named "hibiscus revolution" has potential, at least, to inflict a winter of discontent on the gormless government of prime minister Najib Razak. That's something David Cameron should bear in mind when Najib comes touting for business in Downing Street on Thursday. Bilateral trade and investment is important. Respect for basic human rights more so.

Najib reacted with characteristic heavy-handedness when tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Kuala Lumpur at the weekend demanding "reformasi" – democratic reform – and an end to a defective electoral system that guarantees Najib's party representing the Malay majority, Umno, stays in power indefinitely. About 1,700 people were arrested and many injured as police used baton charges, watercannon and teargas to break up peaceful protests.

In an echo of Britain's Ian Tomlinson affair, one protester, identified as Baharuddin Ahmad, 59, collapsed and later died near the Petronas Towers in central Kuala Lumpur while fleeing teargas. Amnesty International said police had beaten many demonstrators. It demanded an investigation into claims they failed to provide prompt assistance to Baharuddin and that there was a 90-minute delay before an ambulance arrived.

"Prime minister Najib's government rode roughshod over thousands of Malaysians exercising their right to peaceful protest," Amnesty said. "This violent repression … flies in the face of international human rights standards and cannot be allowed to continue. David Cameron should tell prime minister Najib that these human rights violations are unacceptable."

The protests, the product of rising tensions linked to mooted early elections, spending cuts and political upheavals in neighbouring Thailand and Singapore, echo events across the Muslim world. Many of the participants were reportedly younger-generation Malaysians kicking back against establishment cronyism, curbs on public assembly and debate, and state-imposed censorship considered draconian even by regional standards.

Within hours of the violence, a Facebook petition demanding Najib resign was attracting 300 "likes" per minute, the (Singapore-based) Straits Times reported. As of this morning, more than 172,000 people had expressed support. "I don't understand why the harshness, the beatings," posted Sofie Muhammad. "The crowd didn't even throw stones at the shops. Why is the government afraid? All we want is free elections." Videos were also recorded by protesters.

Marimuthu Manogaran of the Democratic Action party, representing the ethnic Chinese minority, said many of the protesters were "first timers". "Young people [are] coming out there to demand their rights … and I think that is a good sign for Malaysia," he told Luke Hunt of the Diplomat.

Another report, denied by police, said a hospital where protesters had taken refuge was attacked by security forces – an incident akin to events in Bahrain earlier this year. Appalled by the behaviour of police and federal reserve unit special forces, Bersih 2.0, the opposition "coalition for clean and fair elections", called for a royal commission of inquiry and vowed to continue its reformasi campaign, come what may.

Anwar Ibrahim, the veteran opposition leader endlessly persecuted by successive governments on trumped-up sodomy charges (he is due in court again next month), was among those injured. He said later the government had lost the people's confidence and more street protests were inevitable. "We will have to pursue free elections inside and outside of parliament," he warned.

Far from admitting fault, Najib has threatened more strong-arm tactics if the demos continue. "Don't doubt our strength. If we want to create chaos, we can. Umno has 3 million members. If we gather 1 million members, it is more than enough. We can conquer Kuala Lumpur," he said. Such threats seem ill-advised. When elected in 2009, Najib promised to bridge Malaysia's political, ethnic and religious divisions. Now he's in danger of exacerbating them, as his old boss, Malaysia's founding father Mahathir Mohammed, suggested in a recent interview.

Malaysia is not on the verge of revolution, hibiscus-coloured or otherwise. Relatively speaking, it is more stable, homogenous and prosperous than other Muslim or Arab countries currently experiencing popular turmoil. But it is not politically immune to the international zeitgeist, any more than its economy is immune to global trends. This latter consideration explains why Najib is in London. And it gives Cameron and other European leaders leverage should they choose to use it.

Malaysians need only look north to see how Thai voters defied the political-military establishment and voted in a leader of their choice. When Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi speaks of the twin imperatives of freedom and democracy, she speaks for an entire region. And if Malaysians look south to Singapore or east to Hong Kong, they see entrenched ruling elites under determined challenge by activists emboldened by the spirit of change.

Malaysia's leaders should wake up and smell the coffee. Led intelligently and openly, Malaysia could be a paradigm for south-east Asia. Led repressively, it could fall apart. Najib must get on the right side of history. The Mubarak model doesn't work.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... protesters


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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:10 am

vanlose kid wrote:
JackRiddler wrote:The EU made a gigantic mistake (intentionally) to put capitalism before democracy, and to create a common currency and bank without empowering the only democratic institution it has (the parliament). The euro may fall apart, but it won't be the end of the world.


can you make an intentional mistake?


Yes of course. I'm writing in shorthand. I mean it was the wrong strategy, motivated not by concern for Europe or Europeans in general but power and profit for the few, even though it was very likely to fail. Short term profit and hubris about over-ambitious projects win out. Intentional mistakes seem to be the usual practice. Addicts rationalize why they need their next fix, civilization as a whole (or the people running it right now) is intentionally driving off the ecological cliff.

apart from that i don't think that empowering the parliament would have made much of a difference, look at the US or Greece.


Those aren't empowered relative to capital. No, you're quite right. But if the EU were to have ever been a serious project in the interests of the European peoples and nations, democracy would have come before the bank. And a parliament of nations debating the current crisis, one that actually had authority over the institutions of their alliance, would be very different from the state-managed "discourse" of the troika and prime ministers.

default is a tea party dream? hadn't heard that.


Let's call it an intentional mistake. At this point it's hard to say who is "tea party," but the group calling themselves that in Congress are the ones pushing for default if they don't get to cut "entitlements," yes.

there might be in the aftermath of an all out war and horrifying body count and the subsequent division of spoils and territory (among the remaining corporations).


There might be, there might not. Very hard to say what would be after such a scenario. "They" are great at intentional mistakes, but they can't even make the Iraq invasion or the euro institution run according to plan. What makes you think the aftermath of World War III-VI can be managed in advance?

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