Now: Must steal this from other thread!
2012 Countdown wrote:
One in three mortgage holders still underwater
Click above to see a larger, more readable image.
By John W. Schoen, Senior Producer
Got that sinking feeling? Amid signs that the U.S. housing market is finally rising from a long slumber, real estate Web site Zillow reports that homeowners are still under water.
Nearly 16 million homeowners owed more on their mortgages than their home was worth in the first quarter, or nearly one-third of U.S. homeowners with mortgages. That’s a $1.2 trillion hole in the collective home equity of American households.
Despite the temptation to just walk away and mail back the keys, nine of 10 underwater borrowers are making their mortgage and home loan payments on time. Only 10 percent are more than 90 days delinquent.
Still, “negative equity” will continue to weigh on the housing market – and the broader economy – because it sidelines so many potential home buyers. It also puts millions of owners at greater risk of losing their home if the economic recovery stalls, according to Zillow’s chief economist, Stan Humphries.
“If economic growth slows and unemployment rises, more homeowners will be unable to make timely mortgage payments, increasing delinquency rates and eventually foreclosures," he said.
For now, the recent bottoming out in home prices seems to be stabilizing the impact of negative equity; the number of underwater homeowners held steady from the fourth quarter of last year and fell slightly from a year ago.
Zillow map: Where homes are underwater
Real estate market conditions vary widely across the country, as does the depth of trouble homeowners find themselves in. Nearly 40 percent of homeowners with a mortgage owe between 1 and 20 percent more than their home is worth. But 15 percent – approximately 2.4 million – owe more than double their home’s market value.
Nevada homeowners have been hardest hit, where two-thirds of all homeowners with a mortgage are underwater. Arizona, with 52 percent, Georgia (46.8 percent), Florida (46.3 percent) and Michigan (41.7 percent) also have high percentages of homeowners with negative equity.
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http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news ... water?lite
Related:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/04/ ... -wild.html
Monday, April 23, 2012
Michael Olenick: Rentals Gone Wild
By Michael Olenick, creator of FindtheFraud, a crowd sourced foreclosure document review system (still in alpha). You can follow him on Twitter at @michael_olenick or read his blog, Seeing Through Data
… as Winston well knew, it was only four years since Oceania had been at war with Eastasia and in alliance with Eurasia. But that was merely a piece of furtive knowledge, which he happened to possess because his memory was not satisfactorily under control. Officially the change of partners had never happened. Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible.
George Orwell, 1984
Situated on one side of one hole of the McDowell Mountain Golf Club, on a cul-de-sac, is a 3BR, 2 bath, 2,000 square foot home for rent for the price of $2,150/mo. On the other side of the hole, on a different cul-de-sac, is a 3BR, 2 bath, 2,005 square foot house for sale with an asking price of $310,000.
Our rental, which doesn’t have a pool, is across the street from a house that sits on the golf course: it seems to have a small back yard that backs up to another house. Our house for sale sits on the golf course and seems to have a very nice pool. Public records indicate the house for sale was last sold to its current owners for $696,000 in February, 2006 whereas the house for rent was last sold for $250,749 in Dec., 1999. I’ve never been to Scottsdale but a quick check of other houses suggests both prices are reasonable.
Some quick math shows that with a 30-year loan at 4% interest the nicer house, on the golf course, would yield a monthly P&I payment of $1,183.99 after a $62,000 down-payment plus closing costs. If a buyer qualifies for a 3-percent down-payment they’d have to raise $9,300 plus closing costs which would yield a monthly payment of $1,435.59.
There’s no ambiguity: even with taxes and insurance taken into account it costs much more to rent a mediocre home in the same neighborhood than to purchase a really nice house.
Though it isn’t marked as such the home for sale screams short-sale; it’s price has been reduced and it’s being sold “As-Is.” There’s a fine chance some servicer, after a dozen rounds of “lost documents” and chain-yanking, will seize and auction it to an investor with a bundle of cash for less than the $310,000 asking price. That’s less than half the price it fetched at the height of the bubble, who will then rent it for a tidy profit while waiting for prices to increase.
News articles have been appearing all over about investors paying cash for properties in bubble-states. Phoenix-area homebuyers squeezed out by investors, reads a piece in the Arizona Republic which notes that “cash is king.” In my own backyard, here in Florida, Miami condos have apparently appreciated 49% in the last year alone according to Bloomberg, which points out about 2/3rds of all buyers pay cash.
Irrational exuberance seems to be back in vogue in the bubble states, never mind shadow inventory figures so high that nobody can grasp exactly what they are. People, probably those kicked out of these same houses, are “willing” to pay a premium for rentals, which may make sense when one considers that even inflated rental prices are still less than their bubble-era mortgage payments.
One theme we hear repeatedly is a lack of “inventory,” homes for sale, which is predictably driving up prices. Remember all that talk about foreclosures driving up home prices? Apparently the foreclosure slowdown caused by Robogate instead seems to have done exactly what Adam Smith said it would leaving bankers, economists, and investors shocked — shocked! — at the recent gains in real-estate prices. Infamous Robosigner Linda Green appears to have done more to increase home prices than every government program combined leaving investors and home flippers, reckless villains in the meltdown narrative just last year, as this year’s heroes.
It’s not only private bankers doing this: government-owned but still “private” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are selling properties in bulk to investors. Brazenly ignoring their Congressional mandate to minimize losses by selling to the highest bidder (rather than the friendliest), while working to promote affordable housing, they instead work to empower and subsidize high-volume property flippers and land sharks.
These artificial increases are, of course, unsustainable. I have a friend who works for one of the local towns near me here in South Florida. He’s a city employee but with budget cuts worries about his job, part of which includes boarding up empty houses. Lately, however, the empties often aren’t empty.
It’s not uncommon, he says, to board up a needle-strewn empty one month only to be called back by police to board it up again a month or two later. Except that the new occupants aren’t crack dealers: they’ve often done the servicer’s work and cleaned it up. It’s not unusual, he says, to find that they’ve done basic repairs, and one even installed new appliances. OK – that was unusual; it seems the appliance installer rented the house from a random scam artist, paying a security deposit plus first and last month’s rent. Police, of course, will do nothing.
Banks are obviously manipulating the housing supply in an attempt to reignite a bubble to hide their losses, a strategy that’s temporarily working.
Book publishers were recently sued by the Dept. of Justice for price fixing, using similar practices. But I guess they’re not too big to fail. Indeed, I’m half surprised government hasn’t labeled book publishers a national security threat given the problems we’d face if people read and educated themselves about basic economics.
So here we go again. Backyard investors will soon be saying “it’s different this time,” arguing that those rents will never fall as they sink their retirement savings into the same houses that wiped out the retirement accounts of the previous occupants. But Mr. Smith’s invisible hand always wins in the end, sometimes with a gentle nudge and sometimes with a violent smack. There are too many houses for too few people and no private funding anywhere on the horizon. As long as those basic fundamentals hold true it’s not a question of if, but only when, the rental bubble bursts and how much damage it will inflict on everybody else.
Also related:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/04/20/ ... bble/print
Weekend Edition April 20-22, 2012
First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit
Son of the Housing Bubble
by DEAN BAKER
It’s often said that the difference between the powerful and the powerless is that the powerful get to walk away from their mistakes while the powerless suffer the consequences. The first-time homebuyers’ tax credit provides an excellent example of the privilege of the powerful.
The first-time homebuyers tax credit was added to President Obama’s original 2009 stimulus package. It was introduced by Senator Johnny Isakson, a Republican from Georgia, but the proposal quickly gained support from both parties. The bill gave a tax credit equal to 10 percent of a home’s purchase price, up to $8,000, to first time buyers or people who had not owned a home for more than three years. To qualify for the credit, buyers had to close on their purchase by the end of November, 2009, however the credit was extended to buyers who signed a contract by the end of April, 2010.
The ostensible intention of the bill was to stabilize the housing market. At least initially it had this effect. There was a spike in home purchases that showed up clearly in the data by June of 2009. House prices, which had been falling at a rate of close to 2.0 percent a month stabilized and actually began to rise by the late summer of 2009, as buyers tried to close on a house before the deadline for the initial credit. There was a further rise in prices around the end of the extended credit in the spring of 2010.
However once the credit ended, prices resumed their fall. By the end of 2011 they were 8.4 percent below the tax credit induced peak in the spring of 2010. Adjusting for inflation, the decline was more than 12.0 percent.
The problem was that the credit did not lead more people to buy homes, it just caused people who would have bought homes in the second half of 2010 or 2011 to buy their homes earlier. This meant that the price decline that was in process in 2007-2009 was just delayed for a bit more than a year by the tax credit.
This delay allowed homeowners to sell their homes for higher prices than would otherwise have been the case. It also allowed lenders to get back more money on loans that might have otherwise ended with short sales or even defaults. The losers were the people who paid too much for homes, persuaded to get into the market by the tax credit.
This was the same story as the in the original bubble, but then the pushers were the subprime peddlers. In this case the pusher was Congress with its first-time buyer credit.
According to my calculations, the temporary reversal of the price decline transferred between $200 and $350 billion (in 2009 dollars) from buyers to sellers and lenders. Another $15-25 billion went from homebuyers to builders selling new homes for higher prices than would otherwise have been possible.
While this might look like bad policy on its face, it gets worse. The tax credit had the biggest impact on the bottom end of the market, both because this is where first-time buyers are most likely to be buying homes and also an $8,000 credit will have much more impact in the market for $100,000 homes than the market for $500,000 homes.
The price of houses in the bottom third of the market rose substantially in response to the credit, only to plunge later. To take some of the most extreme cases, in Chicago prices of bottom tier homes fell by close to 30 percent from June 2010 to December of 2011, leading to a lose of $50,000 for a buyer at the cutoff of the bottom tier of the market. The drop in Minneapolis was more than 20 percent or more than $30,000. First-time buyers in Atlanta got the biggest hit. House prices for homes in the bottom tier have fallen by close to 50 percent since June of 2010. That is a loss of $70,000 for a house at the cutoff of the bottom tier.
Many of the 11 million underwater homeowners in the country can blame the incentives created by the first-time homebuyers credit for their plight. This was really bad policy, which should have been apparent at the time. Unfortunately, it is only the victims who are suffering, not the promulgators of the policy. Welcome to Washington.
Dean Baker is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). He is the author of Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy and False Profits: Recoverying From the Bubble Economy.
This article originally appeared on Huffington Post.