"End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sun Dec 12, 2010 12:10 pm

VERY IMPORTANT REPORTING/UPDATE ON DERIVATIVES VIA NYT
SOURCE LINK

A Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives

On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan.

The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.

Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk.

In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks.

The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available.

Banks’ influence over this market, and over clearinghouses like the one this select group advises, has costly implications for businesses large and small, like Dan Singer’s home heating-oil company in Westchester County, north of New York City.

This fall, many of Mr. Singer’s customers purchased fixed-rate plans to lock in winter heating oil at around $3 a gallon. While that price was above the prevailing $2.80 a gallon then, the contracts will protect homeowners if bitterly cold weather pushes the price higher.

But Mr. Singer wonders if his company, Robison Oil, should be getting a better deal. He uses derivatives like swaps and options to create his fixed plans. But he has no idea how much lower his prices — and his customers’ prices — could be, he says, because banks don’t disclose fees associated with the derivatives.

“At the end of the day, I don’t know if I got a fair price, or what they’re charging me,” Mr. Singer said.

Derivatives shift risk from one party to another, and they offer many benefits, like enabling Mr. Singer to sell his fixed plans without having to bear all the risk that oil prices could suddenly rise. Derivatives are also big business on Wall Street. Banks collect many billions of dollars annually in undisclosed fees associated with these instruments — an amount that almost certainly would be lower if there were more competition and transparent prices.

Just how much derivatives trading costs ordinary Americans is uncertain. The size and reach of this market has grown rapidly over the past two decades. Pension funds today use derivatives to hedge investments. States and cities use them to try to hold down borrowing costs. Airlines use them to secure steady fuel prices. Food companies use them to lock in prices of commodities like wheat or beef.

The marketplace as it functions now “adds up to higher costs to all Americans,” said Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates most derivatives. More oversight of the banks in this market is needed, he said.

But big banks influence the rules governing derivatives through a variety of industry groups. The banks’ latest point of influence are clearinghouses like ICE Trust, which holds the monthly meetings with the nine bankers in New York.

Under the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, many derivatives will be traded via such clearinghouses. Mr. Gensler wants to lessen banks’ control over these new institutions. But Republican lawmakers, many of whom received large campaign contributions from bankers who want to influence how the derivatives rules are written, say they plan to push back against much of the coming reform. On Thursday, the commission canceled a vote over a proposal to make prices more transparent, raising speculation that Mr. Gensler did not have enough support from his fellow commissioners.

The Department of Justice is looking into derivatives, too. The department’s antitrust unit is actively investigating “the possibility of anticompetitive practices in the credit derivatives clearing, trading and information services industries,” according to a department spokeswoman.

Indeed, the derivatives market today reminds some experts of the Nasdaq stock market in the 1990s. Back then, the Justice Department discovered that Nasdaq market makers were secretly colluding to protect their own profits. Following that scandal, reforms and electronic trading systems cut Nasdaq stock trading costs to 1/20th of their former level — an enormous savings for investors.

“When you limit participation in the governance of an entity to a few like-minded institutions or individuals who have an interest in keeping competitors out, you have the potential for bad things to happen. It’s antitrust 101,” said Robert E. Litan, who helped oversee the Justice Department’s Nasdaq investigation as deputy assistant attorney general and is now a fellow at the Kauffman Foundation. “The history of derivatives trading is it has grown up as a very concentrated industry, and old habits are hard to break.”

Representatives from the nine banks that dominate the market declined to comment on the Department of Justice investigation.

Clearing involves keeping track of trades and providing a central repository for money backing those wagers. A spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank, which is among the most influential of the group, said this system will reduce the risks in the market. She said that Deutsche is focused on ensuring this process is put in place without disrupting the marketplace.

The Deutsche spokeswoman also said the banks’ role in this process has been a success, saying in a statement that the effort “is one of the best examples of public-private partnerships.”

Established, But Can’t Get In

The Bank of New York Mellon’s origins go back to 1784, when it was founded by Alexander Hamilton. Today, it provides administrative services on more than $23 trillion of institutional money.

Recently, the bank has been seeking to enter the inner circle of the derivatives market, but so far, it has been rebuffed.

Bank of New York officials say they have been thwarted by competitors who control important committees at the new clearinghouses, which were set up in the wake of the financial crisis.

Bank of New York Mellon has been trying to become a so-called clearing member since early this year. But three of the four main clearinghouses told the bank that its derivatives operation has too little capital, and thus potentially poses too much risk to the overall market.

The bank dismisses that explanation as absurd. “We are not a nobody,” said Sanjay Kannambadi, chief executive of BNY Mellon Clearing, a subsidiary created to get into the business. “But we don’t qualify. We certainly think that’s kind of crazy.”

The real reason the bank is being shut out, he said, is that rivals want to preserve their profit margins, and they are the ones who helped write the membership rules.

Mr. Kannambadi said Bank of New York’s clients asked it to enter the derivatives business because they believe they are being charged too much by big banks. Its entry could lower fees. Others that have yet to gain full entry to the derivatives trading club are the State Street Corporation, and small brokerage firms like MF Global and Newedge.

The criteria seem arbitrary, said Marcus Katz, a senior vice president at Newedge, which is owned by two big French banks.

“It appears that the membership criteria were set so that a certain group of market participants could meet that, and everyone else would have to jump through hoops,” Mr. Katz said.

The one new derivatives clearinghouse that has welcomed Newedge, Bank of New York and the others — Nasdaq — has been avoided by the big derivatives banks.

Only the Insiders Know

How did big banks come to have such influence that they can decide who can compete with them?

Ironically, this development grew in part out of worries during the height of the financial crisis in 2008. A major concern during the meltdown was that no one — not even government regulators — fully understood the size and interconnections of the derivatives market, especially the market in credit default swaps, which insure against defaults of companies or mortgages bonds. The panic led to the need to bail out the American International Group, for instance, which had C.D.S. contracts with many large banks.

In the midst of the turmoil, regulators ordered banks to speed up plans — long in the making — to set up a clearinghouse to handle derivatives trading. The intent was to reduce risk and increase stability in the market.

Two established exchanges that trade commodities and futures, the InterContinentalExchange, or ICE, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, set up clearinghouses, and, so did Nasdaq.

Each of these new clearinghouses had to persuade big banks to join their efforts, and they doled out membership on their risk committees, which is where trading rules are written, as an incentive.

None of the three clearinghouses would divulge the members of their risk committees when asked by a reporter. But two people with direct knowledge of ICE’s committee said the bank members are: Thomas J. Benison of JPMorgan Chase & Company; James J. Hill of Morgan Stanley; Athanassios Diplas of Deutsche Bank; Paul Hamill of UBS; Paul Mitrokostas of Barclays; Andy Hubbard of Credit Suisse; Oliver Frankel of Goldman Sachs; Ali Balali of Bank of America; and Biswarup Chatterjee of Citigroup.

Through representatives, these bankers declined to discuss the committee or the derivatives market. Some of the spokesmen noted that the bankers have expertise that helps the clearinghouse.

Many of these same people hold influential positions at other clearinghouses, or on committees at the powerful International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which helps govern the market.

Critics have called these banks the “derivatives dealers club,” and they warn that the club is unlikely to give up ground easily.

“The revenue these dealers make on derivatives is very large and so the incentive they have to protect those revenues is extremely large,” said Darrell Duffie, a professor at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, who studied the derivatives market earlier this year with Federal Reserve researchers. “It will be hard for the dealers to keep their market share if everybody who can prove their creditworthiness is allowed into the clearinghouses. So they are making arguments that others shouldn’t be allowed in.”

Perhaps no business in finance is as profitable today as derivatives. Not making loans. Not offering credit cards. Not advising on mergers and acquisitions. Not managing money for the wealthy.

The precise amount that banks make trading derivatives isn’t known, but there is anecdotal evidence of their profitability. Former bank traders who spoke on condition of anonymity because of confidentiality agreements with their former employers said their banks typically earned $25,000 for providing $25 million of insurance against the risk that a corporation might default on its debt via the swaps market. These traders turn over millions of dollars in these trades every day, and credit default swaps are just one of many kinds of derivatives.

The secrecy surrounding derivatives trading is a key factor enabling banks to make such large profits.

If an investor trades shares of Google or Coca-Cola or any other company on a stock exchange, the price — and the commission, or fee — are known. Electronic trading has made this information available to anyone with a computer, while also increasing competition — and sharply lowering the cost of trading. Even corporate bonds have become more transparent recently. Trading costs dropped there almost immediately after prices became more visible in 2002.

Not so with derivatives. For many, there is no central exchange, like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where the prices of derivatives are listed. Instead, when a company or an investor wants to buy a derivative contract for, say, oil or wheat or securitized mortgages, an order is placed with a trader at a bank. The trader matches that order with someone selling the same type of derivative.

Banks explain that many derivatives trades have to work this way because they are often customized, unlike shares of stock. One share of Google is the same as any other. But the terms of an oil derivatives contract can vary greatly.

And the profits on most derivatives are masked. In most cases, buyers are told only what they have to pay for the derivative contract, say $25 million. That amount is more than the seller gets, but how much more — $5,000, $25,000 or $50,000 more — is unknown. That’s because the seller also is told only the amount he will receive. The difference between the two is the bank’s fee and profit. So, the bigger the difference, the better for the bank — and the worse for the customers.

It would be like a real estate agent selling a house, but the buyer knowing only what he paid and the seller knowing only what he received. The agent would pocket the difference as his fee, rather than disclose it. Moreover, only the real estate agent — and neither buyer nor seller — would have easy access to the prices paid recently for other homes on the same block.

An Electronic Exchange?

Two years ago, Kenneth C. Griffin, owner of the giant hedge fund Citadel Group, which is based in Chicago, proposed open pricing for commonly traded derivatives, by quoting their prices electronically. Citadel oversees $11 billion in assets, so saving even a few percentage points in costs on each trade could add up to tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars a year.

But Mr. Griffin’s proposal for an electronic exchange quickly ran into opposition, and what happened is a window into how banks have fiercely fought competition and open pricing. To get a transparent exchange going, Citadel offered the use of its technological prowess for a joint venture with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which is best-known as a trading outpost for contracts on commodities like coffee and cotton. The goal was to set up a clearinghouse as well as an electronic trading system that would display prices for credit default swaps.

Big banks that handle most derivatives trades, including Citadel’s, didn’t like Citadel’s idea. Electronic trading might connect customers directly with each other, cutting out the banks as middlemen.

So the banks responded in the fall of 2008 by pairing with ICE, one of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s rivals, which was setting up its own clearinghouse. The banks attached a number of conditions on that partnership, which came in the form of a merger between ICE’s clearinghouse and a nascent clearinghouse that the banks were establishing. These conditions gave the banks significant power at ICE’s clearinghouse, according to two people with knowledge of the deal. For instance, the banks insisted that ICE install the chief executive of their effort as the head of the joint effort. That executive, Dirk Pruis, left after about a year and now works at Goldman Sachs. Through a spokesman, he declined to comment.

The banks also refused to allow the deal with ICE to close until the clearinghouse’s rulebook was established, with provisions in the banks’ favor. Key among those were the membership rules, which required members to hold large amounts of capital in derivatives units, a condition that was prohibitive even for some large banks like the Bank of New York.

The banks also required ICE to provide market data exclusively to Markit, a little-known company that plays a pivotal role in derivatives. Backed by Goldman, JPMorgan and several other banks, Markit provides crucial information about derivatives, like prices.

Kevin Gould, who is the president of Markit and was involved in the clearinghouse merger, said the banks were simply being prudent and wanted rules that protected the market and themselves.

“The one thing I know the banks are concerned about is their risk capital,” he said. “You really are going to get some comfort that the way the entity operates isn’t going to put you at undue risk.”

Even though the banks were working with ICE, Citadel and the C.M.E. continued to move forward with their exchange. They, too, needed to work with Markit, because it owns the rights to certain derivatives indexes. But Markit put them in a tough spot by basically insisting that every trade involve at least one bank, since the banks are the main parties that have licenses with Markit.

This demand from Markit effectively secured a permanent role for the big derivatives banks since Citadel and the C.M.E. could not move forward without Markit’s agreement. And so, essentially boxed in, they agreed to the terms, according to the two people with knowledge of the matter. (A spokesman for C.M.E. said last week that the exchange did not cave to Markit’s terms.)

Still, even after that deal was complete, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soon had second thoughts about working with Citadel and about introducing electronic screens at all. The C.M.E. backed out of the deal in mid-2009, ending Mr. Griffin’s dream of a new, electronic trading system.

With Citadel out of the picture, the banks agreed to join the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s clearinghouse effort. The exchange set up a risk committee that, like ICE’s committee, was mainly populated by bankers.

It remains unclear why the C.M.E. ended its electronic trading initiative. Two people with knowledge of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s clearinghouse said the banks refused to get involved unless the exchange dropped Citadel and the entire plan for electronic trading.

Kim Taylor, the president of Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s clearing division, said “the market” simply wasn’t interested in Mr. Griffin’s idea.

Critics now say the banks have an edge because they have had early control of the new clearinghouses’ risk committees. Ms. Taylor at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange said the people on those committees are supposed to look out for the interest of the broad market, rather than their own narrow interests. She likened the banks’ role to that of Washington lawmakers who look out for the interests of the nation, not just their constituencies.

“It’s not like the sort of representation where if I’m elected to be the representative from the state of Illinois, I go there to represent the state of Illinois,” Ms. Taylor said in an interview.

Officials at ICE, meantime, said they solicit views from customers through a committee that is separate from the bank-dominated risk committee.

“We spent and we still continue to spend a lot of time on thinking about governance,” said Peter Barsoom, the chief operating officer of ICE Trust. “We want to be sure that we have all the right stakeholders appropriately represented.”

Mr. Griffin said last week that customers have so far paid the price for not yet having electronic trading. He puts the toll, by a rough estimate, in the tens of billions of dollars, saying that electronic trading would remove much of this “economic rent the dealers enjoy from a market that is so opaque.”

“It’s a stunning amount of money,” Mr. Griffin said. “The key players today in the derivatives market are very apprehensive about whether or not they will be winners or losers as we move towards more transparent, fairer markets, and since they’re not sure if they’ll be winners or losers, their basic instinct is to resist change.”

In, Out and Around Henhouse

The result of the maneuvering of the past couple years is that big banks dominate the risk committees of not one, but two of the most prominent new clearinghouses in the United States.

That puts them in a pivotal position to determine how derivatives are traded.

Under the Dodd-Frank bill, the clearinghouses were given broad authority.
The risk committees there will help decide what prices will be charged for clearing trades, on top of fees banks collect for matching buyers and sellers, and how much money customers must put up as collateral to cover potential losses.

Perhaps more important, the risk committees will recommend which derivatives should be handled through clearinghouses, and which should be exempt.

Regulators will have the final say. But banks, which lobbied heavily to limit derivatives regulation in the Dodd-Frank bill, are likely to argue that few types of derivatives should have to go through clearinghouses. Critics contend that the bankers will try to keep many types of derivatives away from the clearinghouses, since clearinghouses represent a step towards broad electronic trading that could decimate profits.

The banks already have a head start. Even a newly proposed rule to limit the banks’ influence over clearing allows them to retain majorities on risk committees. It remains unclear whether regulators creating the new rules — on topics like transparency and possible electronic trading — will drastically change derivatives trading, or leave the bankers with great control.

One former regulator warned against deferring to the banks. Theo Lubke, who until this fall oversaw the derivatives reforms at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said banks do not always think of the market as a whole as they help write rules.

“Fundamentally, the banks are not good at self-regulation,” Mr. Lubke said in a panel last March at Columbia University. “That’s not their expertise, that’s not their primary interest."
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:16 pm

Yap! I was just coming here to post that same article.

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The highest Wisdom and the first Love.

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:35 pm

Goldman Execs To Get $111 Million In Delayed Bonus Payoffs Next Month
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/15/2010 14:41 -0500


For those who are concerned that the head executives of the bank that does god's work, and has repeatedly claimed it did not need taxpayer bailouts even though it borrowed from the Fed's Primary Dealer Credit Facility not once (that would be explainable), not twice (also), but 84 times, worry not: Bloomberg reports that in January, Lloyd Blankfein and his top deputies will receive $111.3 million in stock in a "payoff from last year and their record-setting 2007 bonuses." Specifically, Lloyd will get $24.3 million, $24 million will go to President Gary Cohn, $21.3 million to CFO David Viniar, $20.8 million to Jon Winkelried, and $14.3 million to Edward Frost, former co-head of investment management. And as Bloomberg reports: "The payouts, just a portion of the $67.9 million bonus awarded to Blankfein for 2007 and the $66.9 million paid to Cohn, reflect a 24 percent decline in the stock’s value since it was granted at $218.86." To be sure, this money was well-earned: "Within a year after the bonuses were approved, Goldman Sachs took $10 billion from the U.S. Treasury, converted to a bank and was borrowing as much as $35.4 billion a day from Federal Reserve emergency programs. This year the firm paid $550 million to settle U.S. regulators’ fraud charges related to a mortgage-security the company sold in 2007." Luckily, the violent images in the prior clip are from Athens, and not south Manhattan: after all Americans have so much to be grateful to their bankers for: for one, there are least 10% of the benefits in the recent tax extension left that have not been consumed by the recent spike in oil prices.

And some more facts that will most certainly not get anyone's blood boiling:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon, 54, is set to receive $6.8 million worth of shares next month that were awarded for 2007. John Mack, 66, who served as CEO of New York-based Morgan Stanley until this year, didn’t take a bonus in 2007, 2008 or 2009. He will receive about $5.4 million of previously vested shares in January that Morgan Stanley awarded him for 2005.

Of the $111.3 million in restricted stock awards due to be doled out in January, $94.9 million was from 2007 grants, the filings show. While Vice Chairmen John S. Weinberg and J. Michael Evans will each receive $3.3 million from their 2009 bonus grants, their 2007 awards weren’t published in the proxy.

The executives will be restrained from cashing in the stock they receive. Blankfein, Cohn, Winkelried and Viniar were all required to keep 90 percent of their shares under an agreement reached with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the company controlled by billionaire Warren Buffett, when it bought $5 billion of the firm’s preferred stock in 2008. That limit expires when Buffett’s investment is repaid or on Oct. 1, 2011, whichever comes soonest.

Even before the Buffett restrictions were imposed, Goldman Sachs’s CEO, CFO, presidents and vice chairmen were required to keep at least 75 percent of the shares they had received since becoming senior executive officers, with the exception of shares received in Goldman Sachs’s 1999 initial public offering or through any acquisition by Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan also require top executives to retain 75 percent of the shares they are awarded.


And the kicker: this is fair money earned based on performance targets.

About 88 percent of the 2007 awards were restricted stock units the firm granted for performance, which were vested at that time. The executives receive the shares underlying those units in January 2011. The remaining 12 percent are shares the executives purchased at a 25 percent discount using their 2007 cash bonuses. Those shares are either delivered or have restrictions lifted next month.


And since these gentlemen are about to be paid bonuses on short-term performance, we are confident they will be claw-backed all their stock-based bonuses since the beginning of their careers at Goldman, as their bonus (not to mention net worth) would be zero based on the banks' performance in 2008, had the taxpaying public not stepped in and bailed each and every one of them.

As for what the popular reaction will be to this news...

“The public will be outraged,” she said. “Wall Streeters will be excited that there’s still money being made on Wall Street, and there’s still a reason to be working so hard.”


Whoever said hard work (aka infinite moral hazard, and a perpetual taxpayer bailout fallback) does not pay off...


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldma ... next-month

*

edit to add this:


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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:44 pm

Straight Talk with Tyler Durden: The U.S. Is Free-Falling Into Bankruptcy

Wednesday, December 15, 2010, 9:46 am, by Adam

"Straight Talk" features thinking from notable minds that the ChrisMartenson.com audience has indicated it wants to learn more about. Readers submit the questions they want addressed and our guests take their best crack at answering. The comments and opinions expressed by our guests are their own.


This week's Straight Talk contributor is Tyler Durden, founder and chief demagogue of the popular econoblog Zero Hedge. Zero Hedge's mission is to bring back a more critical, rigorous, and informed style of commentary and synthesis for the professional investing public. The blog has experienced explosive growth in it's two-year existence, due in part to its prolific coverage of financial events as well as its unapologetic (some say controversial) editorial approach, which is often highly critical of today's economic and political leaders.

1. What led you to start Zero Hedge? Was there a particular story or moment? For many of our readers, you have become the CNN of the Great Collapse (this is seen as a positive thing). Is this what you set out to be?

Zero Hedge was started two years ago in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crash, as coined by Bill Buckler, when we realized there is a substantial vacuum in information distribution, and to a lesser extent, processing. The financial media world was (and to a great extent still is) dominated by journalists who were learning finance on the job and thus were incapable of putting the dots together on most stories under investigation. Others took an even more inappropriate approach, and instead of covering the stories, took a major shortcut and began to cover the people who made up (literally) the headline news, and in abject adulation of these “universal masters” wrote op-eds, and shortly thereafter, books, that purported to explain the underlying narrative by covering the personalities. The financial media learned that the way to mask its greatest weakness - its lack of understanding - was by redirecting the narrative to far more simplistic and digestible profile stories. To be sure, there have always been fringe reporters/analysts in the periphery of the media world who were great experts in one area or another, but rarely was there a medium that successfully meshed the macro with the micro, fusing topics between the equity, credit, FX, commodity, and derivative worlds, and, increasingly more importantly, the political arena.

Zero Hedge has attempted to fill this hole.

As for whether or not we have a bearish bias, that is debatable. We judge the prevailing sentiment by feedback from our readers, who constantly opine on any latest story, thus preventing an echo-chamber effect. Some may find it surprising that we have just as many bullish as bearish readers. But more to the point, we pride ourselves in always providing a fact-based perspective that at least attempts to dig behind the headlines, which in our day and age are becoming increasingly more biased by outright propaganda. Instead of screaming that the end is nigh (which it may very well be; after all, we now live in a world in which the ultimate backstops are two perfectly human, and thus error-prone, individuals - Ben Bernanke and Jean Claude Trichet), we prefer to debunk prevailing lies and popular myths, borne out of either stupidity or laziness. It is not our fault if the end product of such an activity ends up revealing a less than optimistic result.

Ultimately, we strive, no matter what, to present the objective and verifiable truth. Which is perhaps why each week brings us new record numbers of readers: As we assumed on day one of Zero Hedge, Americans are not as stupid as the administration would believe they are, and are starved for the truth, unmarred by a political bias or corporate affiliations, two niches which we strive to fill without a conflict of interest, each and every day.

2. Is "Tyler Durden" a real person or a collective of editors? What advantages does ZH gain by operating under pseudonyms and what does it lose?

Tyler Durden is the embodiment of the idea that the only thing that matters is content. And since ideas tend to be ephemeral, the right question is not who or what he or she may be, but what the sought-after goal is. To wit: content, especially in the context of often complicated financial matters, succeeds in its goal not if it convinces, but if it makes the reader think and reevaluate existing preconceptions. Often, that involves forcefully breaking (and sometimes destroying) established, often petrified, structures and modes of thought, and who better to achieve this than Tyler Durden. Additionally, by avoiding the same “personality cult” trap with which traditional corporate-entrenched media often attempts to lure its ideological opponents, we enjoy forcing them to acknowledge just how much (or, much more often, how little) of the actual content they can overturn in order to establish the veracity of their ideas.

Naturally, on the other end of the contextual spectrum, there is the recently popular phenomenon of WikiLeaks. But that is a topic for another day.

3. ZH cultivates a counterculture, in-your-face approach to journalism. Is this approach intrinsic to your mission? Does inflaming passions help increase awareness of your message? Is it ever counterproductive?

As noted above, many of the topics we address fly straight in the face of what can be classified as established, propaganda thought. It is these ideas, many of which are not based on any semblance of fact but are merely an appeal to the lowest common intellectual denominator, that we most actively seek to ridicule, disparage, and ultimately discredit. Zero Hedge has been known to utilize such stylistic tropes as hyperbole, sarcasm, and irony on occasion, but always with the end goal of making the reader aware that style is merely secondary, or more apropos, immersive, to the fundamental message, which is always dead serious, and, more importantly, backed up 100% by facts (one of the biggest boons of contextual hyperlinking). And yes, so far this approach has yielded numerous and extensive results, both in the realm of activism as well as voluntary and enforced regulatory overhaul.

4. Do you see yourself as part of a greater tradition of ‘exposé journalism’ in the mold of Ida Tarbell or Upton Sinclair? Or are you just frustrated by the way major media organizations cover the paramount issues of our day and determined to do something about it?

We don’t really see ourselves as part of any tradition. We believe that any time we observe someone manipulating truth or reality in order to achieve ulterior, selfish goals while masking these in some form of a hypocritical aura, we will expose such an action and certainly make our voices heard. Furthermore, we are confident that the “major media” will soon realize that Americans no longer have any interest in being lied to, can do their own homework, and after a while will leave (permanently) all media outlets, whether on air, wired, or printed format, that tend to manipulate truth (in part or in whole) while making overarching (and underestimating) assumptions about the intelligence of its audience. And for a business in which eyeball equivalents are all that matter, said media will need to revamp its business model to one which is increasingly more reflective of factual expose, or it will go extinct.

5. Thinking ahead three years, where do you want ZH to be? At that future time, what has it accomplished, and what is it doing?

Zero Hedge tends to evolve with the times. While last year we covered primarily the dysfunctional equity markets, with tangents into broader capital markets, and predicted such stressful market events as the May “flash crash” well over a year in advance, as time has progressed and as the economic depression has spread, we have become increasingly more macro-oriented, currently focusing on the intersection of global capital flows and political spheres of influence. We may very well be doing this for a long time, or the Fed may collapse tomorrow and we will need to find a whole new focal area in 24 hours. And since predicting the future is a fool’s game (unless, of course, one has several very-connected and better-compensated expert networks on speed dial…which is, incidentally, a topic we discussed in the middle of 2009, long before anyone had even heard of expert networks) the last thing we hope to know is where we will be in three years, or what we may look like. One thing I can promise you is that we will adapt.

6. Having written so much about what's wrong with our current economic/financial/political system, what specific actions do you think need to be undertaken to fix things? Is an all-out collapse avoidable?

This is a question that we ask ourselves every day, and no matter how we spin it, we fail to see how an unwind to a previous “restore point” to borrow a computer analogy, is possible at this very late stage in the global Ponzi scheme. We tend to simplify the world: When everything else is stripped, the only two things that matter are a) where is the money coming from? and b) where is it going? And never in the history of the world have so many assets created so little cash flow. To a big extent, this is due to the fact that a bulk of asset purchases in the past three decades have been due not to asset turnover, but as a result of cheap credit resulting from an explosion of credit money through the quadrillion dollar derivative boom. As a result, most incremental dollars go not to organic business growth and economic output, but to satisfying what has become the biggest debt burden in the history of the world, whereby the labor and intellectual output of most goes to fund the living standards of a very few.

Indicatively, when looking at total exchange and OTC traded derivatives, which eventually are converted into some form of credit money, the total tally at last check is just over $1.3 quadrillion. This is about 20 times the total economic output in the world each year. It becomes very clear why the current status quo is unsustainable absent a major global corporate and sovereign liability restructuring: In the bankruptcy business, this process is known as “growing into your balance sheet.” Yet the main reason why the kleptocratic elite has been so opposed to this act is because no debt impairment is possible without eliminating the equity tranche below it. And in an ironic twist in which the Fed supports both the debt and equity markets, there is now about $13 trillion in equity capitalization in the US, which is backed by debt that for all intents and purposes needs to be impaired.

As a result, unless stakeholders in the liabilities of corporate America realize that the assets that collateralize these liabilities are woefully insufficient and come to a compromise in which either they alone or in combination with the creditors come to a consensual “restructuring” of the underlying claims, there is no other possible outcome than a free-fall bankruptcy. However, this will not be some Chapter 7 filed in the bankruptcy court of Southern District of New York. This will be the end of the current financial system. This is also what some consider a "deflationary death spiral." And yes, no matter how much paper the Fed prints, this outcome is inevitable: All the Fed does through money printing is dilute the claims on both sides of the ledger. The best the Fed could then hope for to counteract the deflationary outcome is to generate hyperinflation through a collapse in the reserve currency (i.e., the Zimbabwe outcome). And since this is far more palatable to the Fed, we believe that one way or another, whether by fire or ice (to paraphrase Robert Frost), the existing, very unstable financial system will reach a point when the global systematic reset is inevitable.

7. What are your views on Peak Oil? Assuming you think its arrival is relevant to people alive today, when do you forecast the market will recognize its significance? If we have to cut our use of oil, will we also have to cut our addiction to economic growth in conjunction?

The rate of global consumption of oil is certainly rising. While the debate over Peak Oil has numerous proponents and opponents on both sides, we tend to not have so much a view on Peak Oil per se, as much as marginal consumption and production at any given moment. What is without doubt is that like any natural resource, the accelerating extraction of oil will deplete the resource, once again based on increasing marginal rates of utilization. While we certainly would wish that the G20 countries were investing capital in alternative energy infrastructures, this will come sooner or later, voluntarily or otherwise. The longer the delay, the greater the ultimate incurred cost. In the meantime, should oil and other commodity prices surge, well-known higher priced alternatives (solar, geothermal, wind) will suddenly become equitable, and as more and more energy production shifts to less efficient modes of energy creation, increasingly more R&D spending will occur in those alternative fields, which in turn will result in a decline of the energy equivalent costs as efficiencies improve. Ultimately, and probably after a violent cyclical shift, there will be a new pricing equilibrium, but one which will nonetheless see an increasing need to shift away to renewable energy sources. We can only hope that in addition to the trillions of dollars spent to fund bank-sector capital deficiencies, the government will find it in its heart to invest a few hundred billion in this venture earlier rather than later. Of course, as we know far too well how the game is played, we are very skeptical than anything like that will happen until it is far too late.

8. What is your advice to concerned individuals looking to position/protect themselves from the likely economic turmoil ahead of us? What strategies and tactics should they consider?

We always recommend looking at the opportunity costs of behavior that is an alternative to prevailing modes. In other words, look at potential outcomes the way an investment manager evaluates an investing opportunity: in terms of upside/downside and associated probabilities. While currently the probability of a truly dire outcome is very, very minor, the cost of insurance is very small. One can buy a year’s worth of provisions, medicine, and other forms of protection for a very cheap price. Should the worst happen, and such items be required, they would be unprocurable, period. This is probably our first advice to those who, like Paolo Pellegrini, wish to insure themselves, very cheaply, to the equivalent of a collapse in the subprime market back in 2006. While many laughed in his face at the time, his obstinacy and persistence is what made both him and John Paulson billions. It is always better to be early on a trade that has even very small chances of success, then too late on a sure trade. And aside from such unpleasant “survivalist” thoughts, we can only recommend, as we have been doing on Zero Hedge for nearly two years, that readers purchase as many hard assets as they can. Anything that Ben Bernanke will dilute by printing, he will; this we are certain of. Which is why purchasing precious metals, hard assets, non-perishable supplies, arable land, and means to protect the above four, is probably the best advice we can give to anyone.

9. Lamestream media is, has, and will probably continue to fail in its mission to inform with appropriate context in most important matters (as, we expect, The Nero Times did too). Do you think the most respected blogs can organize and elevate themselves to actually supplant the increasingly irrelevant LSM by holding themselves to higher standards?

Having seen and interacted with some of the egos in the blogosphere over the past several years, we believe that any form of coordinated attempt to supplant the LSM, as you call it, will be next to impossible. Simply put there are far too many voices that demand to be heard if such an attempt is to be successful.

That said, we believe traditional media will increasingly render itself obsolete as readers find cheaper alternatives in the blogosphere, where many more erudite voices on any matter of things than a collection of journalists at a given highly leveraged traditional media outlet can be found. As a result, mainstream media will most certainly not exist in its current form five years from now. Increasingly more will give focus to independent online microspecialists within any given field, and as such, the background for a successful financial blogger, for example, will not be a journalism degree, but a stint on Wall Street coupled with extended financial training. The same will be true for all other specialized fields. We expect that in a last-ditch attempt to prevent its extinction, the MSM will attempt to roll up the blogosphere into its existing business model. And while this may be lucrative for a few parties, the end losers will be the readers, as this will merely represent the same form of "extend and pretend" in content presentation that America is currently suffering from.

As for enforcing standards, it is in every blog’s interest to be relevant and credible. To that end, higher standards are critical. As the blogosphere, which has over 2 million active blogs in its ranks, is currently a field of extremely active “natural selection,” bloggers have no choice but to perfect their work or lose readers and become irrelevant -- i.e., go extinct. After all, in the blogging world, one is only as good as one's latest post.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/stra ... ptcy/49554

*
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:13 am

http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson12082010.html

December 8, 2010
Game Plan for a Flat Tax, Social Security Cutbacks and Austerity
Obama's Sellout on Taxes


By MICHAEL HUDSON

I almost feel naïve for being so angry at President Obama’s betrayal of his campaign promises regarding taxes. I had never harbored much hope that he actually intended to enact the reforms that his supporters expected – not after he appointed the most right-wing of the Clintonomics gang, Larry Summers, then Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke and other Bush neoliberals.

But there is something so unfair and wrong that I could not prevent myself from waking up early Tuesday morning to think through the consequences of President Obama’s sellout in the years to come. Contrary to his pretense of saving the economy, his action will intensify debt deflation and financial depression, paving the way for a long-term tax shift off wealth onto labor.

In achieving a giveaway that Democrats never would have let George Bush or other Republicans enact, Obama has laid himself open to the campaign slogan that brought down British Prime Minister Tony Blair: “You can’t believe a word he says.” He has lost support not only personally, but also – as the Republicans anticipate – for much of his party in 2012.

Yet Obama has only done what politicians do: He has delivered up his constituency to his campaign backers – the same Wall Street donors who back the Republicans. What’s the point of having a constituency, after all, if you can’t sell it?

The problem is that it’s not going to stop here. Monday’s deal to re-instate the Bush era tax cuts for two more years sets up a 1-2-3 punch. First, many former Democratic and independent voters will “vote with their backsides” and simply stay home (or perhaps be tempted by a third-party candidate), enabling the Republicans to come in legislate the cuts in perpetuity in 2012 – an estimated $4 trillion to the rich over time.

Second, Obama’s Republican act (I hate to call it a compromise) “frees” income for the wealthiest classes to send abroad, to economies not yet wrecked by neoliberals. This paves the way for a foreign-exchange crisis. Such crises traditionally fall in the autumn – and as the 2012 election draws near, it will be attributed to “uncertainty” if voters do not throw the Democrats out. So to “save the dollar” the Republicans will propose to replace progressive income taxation with a uniform flat tax (the old Steve Forbes plan) falling on wage earners, not on wealth or on finance, insurance or real estate (FIRE sector) income. A VAT will be added as an excise tax to push up consumer prices.

Third, the tax giveaway includes a $120 billion reduction in Social Security contributions by labor – reducing the FICA wage withholding from 6.2 per cent to 4.2 per cent. Obama has ingeniously designed the plan to dovetail neatly into his Bowles-Simpson commission pressing to reduce Social Security as a step toward its ultimate privatization and subsequent wipeout grab by Wall Street. This cutback will accelerate the point at which the program moves into supposed “negative equity” – a calculation that ignores the option of restoring pension funding to the government’s general budget, where it would be paid out of progressively levied income tax and hence borne mainly by the wealthy, not by lower-income wage earners as a “user fee.”

So the game plan is not merely to free the income of the wealthiest class to “offshore” itself into assets denominated in harder currencies abroad. It is to scrap the progressive tax system altogether. The Democratic Congress is making only token handwringing protests against this plan, no doubt with an eye looking forward to the campaign contributors two years down the road.

Crises usually are orchestrated years in advance. Any economic recovery typically is shaped by the way in which its predecessor economy collapsed. Medieval Europe’s emergence from the Dark Age, for example, was shaped by ancient Rome’s debt crisis caused by its aggressive oligarchy. In a similar fashion, the coming epochal tax shift off finance and property onto labor will be introduced in response to the dollar’s crisis, in much the way that we have seen Ireland and Greece tap their pension funds to bail out reckless bankers. In America as in Europe, the large “systemically important banks” that caused the crisis will be given enough money by the government – at the expense of labor (“taxpayers”) to step in and “rescue” the bad debt overhang (i.e., toxic junk).

The tactics of this fiscal game sequence are so time-tested that there should not be much surprise. So President Obama’s deal is not only financial and fiscal in scope, it is a political game changer. When Congressional Democrats sign on to this betrayal of their major election promise, they will be re-branding their claim to be the “non-Wall Street party,”

Barack Obama was trained as a lawyer. I’ve rarely met a lawyer who understands economics. That’s not their mind-set. They make deals to minimize the risk of surprises, often settling in the middle. That is legal pragmatism. When candidate Obama promised “change,” I don’t think he had any particular change in economic policy in mind. It was more a modus operandi. I suspect that he simply thought of the Presidency as being referee on “bringing people together.” Probably this personality trait was formed as a teenager, in the kind of popularity contest that teenagers engage in student council elections. Obama’s aim was to be accepted, even admired, by negotiating a compromise. He probably didn’t care much about the content.

He did care about getting political campaign backing, of course, and the rules for this are clear enough in today’s world. He was given a policy to plead, and a set of experts to plead his case. There are always enough Junk Economics advisors to work on politicians to try and convince them that “doing the right thing” means helping Wall Street. It is not a matter simply of believing that “What’s good for Wall Street is good for the economy.” To hear Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke tell the story, the economy can’t function without a “solvent” banking system – meaning that no bank is to lose money. All gamblers on the winning side (such as Goldman Sachs) are to be made whole in cases where they cannot collect from bad casino-capitalist gamblers on the losing side (such as A.I.G. and Lehman Brothers).

So should we say that Obama’s plan really helps the economy simply because the stock market jumped sharply on Tuesday? Or are we dealing with a zero-sum game, where the predator’s subsidy is at the cost of the host economy?

Contra Obama’s pretense, cutting taxes for the rich will not spur recovery. The wealthiest 2 per cent do not spend their income on consuming more. They invest it financially – mainly in bonds, establishing more debt claims on the economy. Giving creditors more money will deepen the economy’s debt deflation, shrinking “the market’s” ability to spend on goods and services. And part of the tax subsidy will be recycled into Congressional lobbying and campaign contributions to buy politicians who will promote even more pro-financial deregulatory policies and tax benefits. There still has been no prosecution of banking crime or other financial fraud by large institutions, for example. Nor is there any sign of Attorney General Holder initiating such prosecutions.

It is a travesty for Obama to trot out the long-term unemployed (who now get a year’s extension of benefits) like widows and orphans used to be. It’s not really “all for the poor.” It’s all for the rich. And it’s not to promote stability and recovery. How stable can a global situation be where the richest nation does not tax its population, but creates new public debt to hand out to its bankers? Future tax payers will spend generations paying off their heirs.

The “solution” to the coming financial crisis in the United States may await the dollar’s plunge as an opportunity for a financial Tonkin Gulf resolution. Such a crisis would help catalyze the tax system’s radical change to a European-style “Steve Forbes” flat tax and VAT sales-excise tax falling almost entirely on employment? Big fish will eat little fish. More government giveaways will be made to the financial sector in a vain effort to keep bad debts afloat and banks “solvent.” As in Ireland and Latvia, public debt will replace private debt, leaving little remaining for Social Security or indeed for much social spending.

The bottom line is that after the prolonged tax giveaway exacerbates the federal budget deficit – along with the balance-of-payments deficit – we can expect the next Republican or Democratic administration to step in and “save” the country from economic emergency by scaling back Social Security while turning its funding over, Pinochet-style, to Wall Street money managers to loot as they did in Chile. And one can forget rebuilding America’s infrastructure. It is being sold off by debt-strapped cities and states to cover their budget shortfalls resulting from un-taxing real estate and from foreclosures.

Welcome to debt peonage. This is worse than what was meant by a double-dip recession. It will be with us much longer.



Michael Hudson is a former Wall Street economist. A Distinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC), he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (new ed., Pluto Press, 2002) and Trade, Development and Foreign Debt: A History of Theories of Polarization v. Convergence in the World Economy. He can be reached via his website, mh@michael-hudson.com
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:16 am

.

Here's the Fed's bailout disclosure page. Links to data on each program:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... action.htm

Usage of Federal Reserve Credit and Liquidity Facilities

This section of the website provides detailed information about the liquidity and credit programs and other monetary policy tools that the Federal Reserve used to respond to the financial crisis that emerged in the summer of 2007. These programs fall into three broad categories--those aimed at addressing severe liquidity strains in key financial markets, those aimed at providing credit to troubled systemically important institutions, and those aimed at fostering economic recovery by lowering longer-term interest rates.

The emergency liquidity programs that the Federal Reserve set up provided secured and mostly short-term loans. Over time, these programs helped to alleviate the strains and to restore normal functioning in a number of key financial markets, supporting the flow of credit to businesses and households. As financial markets stabilized, the Federal Reserve closed most of these programs. Indeed, many of the programs were intentionally priced to be unattractive to borrowers when markets are functioning normally and, as a result, wound down as market conditions improved. The programs achieved their intended purposes with no loss to taxpayers.

The Federal Reserve also provided credit to several systemically important financial institutions. These actions were taken to avoid the disorderly failure of these institutions and the potential catastrophic consequences for the U.S. financial system and economy. All extensions of credit were fully secured and are in the process of being fully repaid.

Finally, the Federal Reserve provided economic stimulus by lowering interest rates. Over the course of the crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 1/4 percent. With the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound, the FOMC provided further monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of longer-term Treasury debt, federal agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (agency MBS). These asset purchases helped to lower longer-term interest rates and generally improved conditions in private credit markets.

The links to the right provide detailed information about the programs that were established in response to the crisis. Details for each loan include: the borrower, the date that credit was extended, the interest rate, information about the collateral, and other relevant terms. Similar information is supplied for swap line draws and repayments. Details for each agency MBS purchase include: the counterparty to the transaction, the date of the transaction, the amount of the transaction, and the price at which each transaction was conducted. The transaction data are provided in compliance with the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. The Federal Reserve will revise the data to ensure that they are accurate and complete.

No rules about executive compensation or dividend payments were applied to borrowers using Federal Reserve facilities. Executive compensation restrictions were imposed by statute on firms receiving assistance through the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Dividend restrictions were the province of the appropriate supervisors and were imposed by the Federal Reserve on bank holding companies in that role, but not because of borrowing through the facilities discussed here.

Additional information about the Federal Reserve's credit and liquidity programs is available on the Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet section.

Last update: December 13, 2010

Facilities and Programs
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchase Program
Term Auction Facility (TAF)
Central Bank Liquidity Swap Lines
Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF)
Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) and TSLF Options Program (TOP)
Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF)
Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF)
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)
Bear Stearns, JPMorgan Chase, and Maiden Lane LLC
American International Group (AIG), Maiden Lane II and III
Bank of America
Citigroup


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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Thu Dec 16, 2010 8:37 pm

JS Kim Explains Why the US Economy Will Share the Same Fate as the South Korea Sampoong Superstore Disaster
Submitted by smartknowledgeu on 12/16/2010 06:33 -0500

On December 7, 2009, I sent out a warning from our Managing Director, JS Kim, to thousands of people via email about the deterioration of the global economy that he had discussed for years that the great majority of people were ignoring. In that message, I spoke of many serious warnings issued by JS publicly since 2006 (and even earlier than 2006 to his clients) about the necessity to own physical gold and physical silver to avoid financial ruin in the coming years. Here’s some excerpts from that warning below:

"In September of 2006, when Stephen Roach, a senior executive of Morgan Stanley stated that the commodity bull had ended, this man responded,

'Everywhere in the media, you have pundits saying that the commodities Bull Run is over - including even chief global economists of major investment firms like Steven Roach of Morgan Stanley. THEY’RE ALL WRONG…I’ve dug deep enough down into the rabbit hole to know that gold will rise much much higher in the future. Yes, oil has slipped to below $60 a barrel but again, this doesn’t mean that oil is done either.'

Since then, gold did not plummet from $570 an ounce back down to $250 an ounce as many 'experts' predicted, but instead rose to more than $1,200 an ounce as of December, 2009."

"At the very start of September 2007, this man stated,

'Increased volatility in stock markets will occur as $370 billion in sub prime mortgages re-set to higher rates, starting with $50 billion in September and $30 billion every month thereafter for the next 18 months to 2 years. Triple-digit losses in the Dow during single day trading sessions will become commonplace.'

Just three months later, triple-digit losses in the DJIA happened almost daily or several times a week to open January of 2008, shocking the investment community."


In this same warning, JS predicted that the global economy, and in particular the US economy, would experience great shocks in 2010-2011. While economic shocks have hit other countries in 2010, great economic shocks have not hit the US thus far in 2010, at least on the surface level. Look below the surface, and we have a completely different story regarding the state of the economy. JS now looks for these economic shocks to rise from below the surface into full view for all to see in the timeframe of 2011-2013.

To understand why JS has pushed out this timeframe, I recently sat down with him and asked several questions:

James C: “Why do you think so many people today aren’t able to see the disaster that is coming to the US economy?”

JS: “Despite the weapons of mass financial destruction that bankers have created and governments worldwide have coddled and shielded from proper regulation, the majority of people still incredibly do not understand the crime syndicate-like relationships among governments, corporations and banks. The public sees that the US markets are up a little over 10% this year and many are duped into believing that that the stock market performance means that the economy is recovering. And this belief is reinforced by idiot talking heads on TV like Jim Cramer that do nothing but misinform people. Sure US markets have now risen by more than 36.79% since they crashed in 2008, a figure that sounds impressive on the surface level. Then combine this impressive sounding figure with US Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s national appearance on 60 Minutes, when he lies to the nation about inflation rates and about continuing to create more money out of thin air, and you have millions more that are converted into sheeple. How do I know? Because I talk almost every month to people in the US that tell me they believe the US economy is recovering. So when people believe that inflation is still less than 2% because the Fed tells them to believe this, they look at a near 37% gain in the US markets in the last two years and believe that they have made substantial recovery in their pensions and IRAs and consequently believe the economy must be recovering as well (by comparison, JS’s Crisis Investment Opportunities newsletter has returned more than 105.25% over the same time period, clobbering the S&P 500’s 36.79% return, and yielding very substantial REAL gains, even after the inflationary monetary effects of the US Federal Reserve’s schemes).”

James C: “So besides the government and bankers deliberately keeping people in the dark, why else do you think some, or even many, people believe the economy is recovering?”

JS: “First of all, the Federal Reserve’s insane POMO (Permanent Open Market Operation) schemes this year are largely responsible for propping up the US market this year. In 2009, when I stated that the US would experience significant economic shocks in 2010 and 2011, I did not yet know the duration of the Fed’s POMO operations and how insane they were going to be. Although daily POMOs had already reached upwards of $6 billion and $7 billion per day as of mid-2009 (just for US Treasuries, but up to multiples of these figures when including US Treasuries and other debt-related financial products), many had speculated that the POMOs would soon end. Obviously, with projected cumulative POMOs of nearly $1,000,000,000,000 just between November 2010 and June 2011 (again just for US Treasuries), the Fed Reserve POMO scheme not only did not end, but it received an injection of steroids in 2010. So POMOs that were used to buy future contracts of US market indexes is a major factor that has kept the US market afloat at this juncture and may continue to keep it afloat for several more months. Rising stock markets have no correlation to a strong economy anymore due to scams run by Central Banks and due to gains that largely occur due to the devaluing currencies that these markets are denominated in. The best performing stock market of the past decade has been the Zimbabwe stock market. Still, it’s irrelevant if you made a quadrillion Zimbabwe dollar profit investing in the Zimbabwe stock market, as by 2008, a loaf of bread would have cost you 1.6 trillion Zimbabwe dollars.”

James C: “If the economy is really not recovering, then can you explain what is really going on?”

JS: “Let me explain what is really going on with the economy with the following disaster analogy. In June of 1995, the Sampoong department store, a five-story building with four basement levels, suddenly collapsed in Seoul, South Korea, tragically killing 501 people and injuring 937 others. When the Sampoong department store was constructed, the owners, due to a desire to cut costs, made several fatal decisions. First, they decided to cut away a number of support columns in the original blueprint in order to install escalators. Secondly, in order to cut costs, the owners shrunk the original width of the support columns from the required 80cms to only 60 cms, an inadequate width to support the load of the building. In addition, the original blueprint called for only a four-story building but the owners built an additional fifth story that housed a restaurant with a very heavy heated concrete base that quadrupled the load of the original building design. Two months before the building collapsed, worrisome cracks appeared in the ceiling of the south wing’s floor. On the day of the collapse, cracks as wide as 10 centimeters appeared in the top floors of the building five hours before the building collapsed, but the owners hid this information from its patrons and refused to shut down and/or evacuate the building as they did not want to lose its daily revenue. When it became clear that the building was going to collapse, senior executives of the department store fled without warning any of the patrons still inside the building. An alarm to evacuate the building was only sounded when the building started to make loud cracking sounds, just 7 minutes before its collapse at 5:57 PM despite signs of an imminent collapse being clearly visible more than five hours prior. City officials Lee Chung-Woo and Hwang Chol-Min, in charge of overseeing the construction of the building, were responsible with concealing the illegal changes to the original blueprint designs and were later charged with and convicted of bribery.

“Amazingly, the above story serves as nearly a perfect analogy for the US economy. The government and bankers laud a rising stock market as proof that the economy is recovering. They go on record stating that inflation is less than 2% when in reality it is more than four times higher. They state unemployment is less than 10% when it is nearly 23%. Thus, to many people, the economy appears as the Sampoong department store’s exterior appeared to the public right before its collapse, structurally sound and with a solid exterior. This is the reason why 40,000 people a day visited the department store despite its fatal structural integrity problems. The government and bankers are just like the Sampoong department store owners, actively concealing all warning signs from the public and selling them an illusion that all is okay when instead, the economy is heading for collapse. Just as the Sampoong department store owners constructed a crappy building destined to collapse due to excessive greed, bankers with the help of government officials, constructed dozens of financial derivative products destined to collapse due to their excessive greed as well.”

“The US regulators that also see the impending cracks in the economy, are just like Lee Chung-Woo and Hwang Chol-Min. They receive inordinate pressure and bribes from the bankers to look the other way and keep the public in the dark about the impending doom that is coming. In the case of the Sampoong disaster, when the contractors refused to continue work on the building when the owners changed structural regulations that endangered the integrity of the building, the owners fired the contractors and hired ones that would cut corners. US regulators that are honest and that try to protect the American public, like Brooksely Born, received the same fate as the original Sampoong contractors and are also fired or forced to resign. When the entire system is corrupt, even the rare good person can’t save disasters from happening. Thus, the public is none-the-better-off despite the presence of regulators that are supposed to protect the public’s interests and safety, but in reality, protect the greed and profits of companies that exploit the public’s interests.”

“And finally, the economy itself is like Sampoong’s interior. It is replete with cracks and fractures that warn us of the disaster ahead. But even so, a large percentage of the masses still remains ignorant because the banker/corporate/government three-headed monster keeps the people’s vision in a tunnel by pummeling the public with a constant stream of propaganda on MSNBC, newspapers, and financial talk shows. In Seoul, Sampoong’s owners distracted the public’s attention away from the developing disaster with stores fully of luxury goods. So when the US economy finally experiences shocks in the future more disastrous than those in 2008, as was the case with the Sampoong department store collapse, many will believe that no warning signs had existed despite the evidence that exists to the contrary today. And I’m quite certain the media, just as they did in 2008, will stupidly ask the same questions they did back then, such as “How did this happen?” when in fact, all the answers stare them in the face right now. With the Fed’s POMO schemes, regulators that aid and abet fraud, and governments and bankers that conceal truth from the public, the combined effect of these actions is just to delay disaster for another year or two. So that is why I say now that disaster will visit the US sometime between 2011-2013.”

James C: “So why do you think some analysts are saying that gold and silver are a bubble now?”

JS: “They’re saying that because either they have been directed by someone above them to say that, or if they really believe it, then they’re merely demonstrating that they have zero understanding of why the global economy is on the brink of disaster right now."

James C: “So is that why you changed the pricing on your services to a constant gold standard? As far as I know, at the time, you were the first US company to do this, and perhaps still the only company that made the decision to price services/products on a gold standard.”

JS: “That’s exactly right, James. A long time ago, I switched the pricing of my services to a gold standard to protect my company’s profits against the destructive policies of Central Banks, in particular the US Federal Reserve. Frankly I’m shocked that no other company has also followed suit since then. At least none that I’m aware of. I stuck to this policy when gold rose to $1,000 an ounce despite the cries of banking shills that were releasing loads of propaganda against Gold, stating gold was a bubble destined to burst, that gold was heading back down to $500, or even $300 an ounce, and other such nonsense. I stuck to this policy even when the price of gold fell in some of the months after I switched to this policy, and falling gold prices caused the prices of all of my services to decline. I felt that my commitment to a constant gold pricing standard despite gold’s decline would prod many people to inquire of themselves why my company was pricing all of our services on a constant gold standard despite the claim of so many Western bankers back then that gold was a speculative and risky asset. I thought that people would ask themselves, if the bankers were correct, then why in the world would I subject my monthly income flow to the possibility of a gold crash and to price fluctuations of a risky asset? The answer, of course, was that discussions of gold crashing, even back in 2005, and every year since then, have been ridiculous.”

“By sticking to this standard through the various periods of volatility that gold experiences every year, I thought people would come to understand gold (and silver) as real money and to finally realize that all fiat money, as long as it is backed by nothing but the full faith and credit of governments, which in reality means less than nothing, is junk. With the exception of the first several months after we launched our investment newsletter during which we offered special introductory rates, my newsletter has basically remained a constant 0.50 ounces of gold. It’s true that its price, and the price of all my services, have risen significantly in terms of fiat currencies but in terms of gold, there has been no price increase. But had the price of gold cratered during this time, the prices of my services as denominated in fiat currencies also would have cratered and I was confident in my decision to do so because I knew that the risk of gold cratering was very low while the risk of fiat currencies cratering was very high. If the price of gold continues to soar over the next few years as I expect it to do, for the sole reason that many people have foolishly taken zero steps to get out of fiat currencies, I may have to even lower my prices in terms of ounces of gold even though the prices denominated in fiat currencies may still continue to rise against these lesser amounts of gold.”

"Every gold and silver investor remembers the Fed Reserve/bullion bank engineered collapse in gold/silver prices that happened in October, 2008. But despite what gold/silver investors remember as a monumental collapse back then, in retrospect, if we look at this “collapse” on a 10-year scale, when we look at the big picture, what we remember as a “collapse” was only a speed bump in the ongoing gold and silver bull. So don’t listen to the immoral bankers and their foolish employees that attempt to keep you from purchasing physical gold/silver or tell you to sell it now because it is absolutely the wrong thing to do.”

Image

Image

James C: “So people should purchase physical gold and silver even now?”

JS: “Yes, they should buy even now. Of course, not all corrections in gold and silver are engineered by bankers, and corrections are a natural occurrence as bull markets need time to consolidate and build new bases before moving higher. So these corrections will happen, whether engineered by bankers or whether they are just a natural pause in a bull market, and they may be steep at times. But when they happen, this events only present buying opportunities for the millions of people that still do not own a single ounce of physical gold or physical silver. To someone that still doesn’t own any physical gold and physical silver now, I would say buy at least some today. Wait too long, and in the future, people without physical gold and physical silver may find it impossible to buy at all.”

James C: “I understand why you are so bullish on gold and silver even now, but can you explain more to everyone that doesn’t understand your view?”

JS: “Sure. As I’ve been stating since 2005, we are and have been in a monetary crisis. When stock markets crashed in 2008, it was due to this monetary crisis. When subprime mortgage derivatives crashed, it was due to this monetary crisis. In the future, when tuition rates soar around the world, when food prices soar around the world, it will be because of this monetary crisis. 100% of people in the world should view silver and gold as real money but in reality, well less than 5% of the world does so. That is why, whether people believe that Max Keiser’s efforts will crash JP Morgan or not, everyone in the world should listen to him, and buy not just one ounce of silver, but one ounce of silver every week if they can afford it, and twenty ounces of silver every week if they can afford it. Unfortunately bankers are hellbent on destroying people's wealth today and the system is so corrupt, that governments and regulators will never fix the current monetary crisis. If people want to survive this monetary crisis, they better buy precious metals.”

James C: “And what if their timing is poor, and silver corrects heavily right after buying?”

JS: “I would say use the corrections to buy more unless we have reached the mania period when it will be time to sell. Though the next few years are bound to bring volatile periods when we may see gold rise (and fall) by $100 a day at times and silver rise (and fall) by $3 or $4 a day, the bankers are dead wrong. There is no bubble in gold and silver today, and unless a major world currency collapses next year, there won’t be one next year either. I've been telling people to buy gold since it was about $560 an ounce and silver since it was about $9 an ounce. I wasn't there at the very beginning of these bull markets, but I hope to stay in until it reaches the end."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/js-kim ... supersto-0

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Fri Dec 17, 2010 6:50 pm

.

News blackout as Greek journalists strike over austerity
Times LIVE - ‎17 hours ago‎
Greek journalists caused a news blackout as they went on a 48-hour strike to protest a government austerity plan. Television channels aired pre-recorded ...


Greek finance ministry set ablaze in Athens protest Sify


Greece:48-Hour Information Blackout, New Transport Strike
Greek Reporter - ‎3 hours ago‎
Greek journalists have today joined the protests against the austerity package with a 48-hour strike that will black out written, TV and internet-based news ...


Greek Strikes Shut Ports, Ground Planes as State Workers Protest Wage Cuts
Bloomberg - Maria Petrakis, Tom Stoukas - ‎Dec 15, 2010‎
Greek unions grounded flights, kept ferries docked at ports and shut down public services ...


Greek Fire Fighters Tackle 38 Blazes During Wage Cut Protests
Bloomberg - Paul Tugwell - ‎Dec 16, 2010‎
Greek fire fighters dealt with 30 blazes in rubbish dumpsters yesterday that were set alight in central ...


Clashes break out during Greek labor rally in Athens as general strike ... Newser


Anti-austerity riots erupt in Greece
Concord Monitor - ‎Dec 15, 2010‎
By AP Greek protesters clashed with riot police across Athens yesterday, torching cars, hurling gasoline bombs and sending Christmas shoppers fleeing in ...


Sydney Morning Herald - Michael Slackman - ‎Dec 16, 2010‎
Greek riot ... the bloodied former development minister Costis Hatzidakis is escorted to safety after a protest turned into a violent clash with police in ...


Greece mulled using army to quash massive 2008 riots
CTV.ca - ‎Dec 1, 2010‎
AP ATHENS — A former Greek interior minister says his government had considered using the armed forces during massive riots in 2008, but ultimately ...

.

Stocks vs. Bonds...

This one's from a stock tip site...

Debt Riots Break Out in Greece
Wealth Daily - Adam Sharp - ‎Dec 16, 2010‎
When the mob arrived at the Greek Parliament building, they spotted a well-known politician, Kostis Hatzidakis (pictured). ...

Image

His fellow Athenians proceeded to stone the former MP. That's right, they stoned him.

The politician survived, but Greece and the EU may not. Not as we know them anyway.

The riots were violent, as shown in this footage. Riot cops can be seen clashing with large groups of protesters.

Gov't troops launch volleys of tear gas at protesters, who are busy launching their own attack — a barrage of Molotov cocktails.

In another display of populist anger, English protesters attacked a Rolls Royce carrying Prince Charles and his wife last week.

Some in the crowd could be heard chanting "off with their heads".

The Royals escaped unharmed, save some damage to their Rolls Royce; rowdy protesters did manage to bust out a side window and ding up the exterior.

There are lessons for the EU and United States in this mess.

Bond holders versus the populace

Social unrest like this isn't supposed to happen in the Western world. Yet, here we are.

Confusion remains about about how we got here. This is primarily a story about bonds, and who owns them.

Who owns the bonds of at-risk EU nations?

First and foremost: European banks. The banks are so exposed to EU debt that a default by just one nation would lead to a chain of events that would likely crush them.

By securing a "rescue package" for a troubled borrower nation, banks simply ensure that they are not forced to eat losses.

Debt is transferred directly onto the public's lap, preferably. In the case of Ireland, they did so by raiding the public pension fund to the tune of $35 billion.

But these rescues are likely to fail. Once a nation is in need, its alternatives to default are limited. You can only squeeze a bad debtor so much. At some point, bad debt must be forgiven.

Default is the risk banks take when they lend money to nations in the form of bonds, and it's happened countless times throughout history.

Games like the ones being played now by the EU only delay the inevitable for a few years, and spread the pain around a bit.

The Iceland example

Imagine if Greece had followed Iceland's example, telling creditors, "Sorry, we don't want to be saddled with unpayable debts for eternity."

I suspect we'd all be better off if they did default — and the sooner the better. Their debts are unsustainable; far too costly to maintain.

Banks would fail and need to be nationalized. Bond holders would take losses. The EU would be forced to evolve or dissolve.

Public sector jobs would take a hit. Low-productivity jobs (like many government positions) would begin flowing to sustainable industries. Smith's invisible hand would do its work, and after a few lean years, sustainable growth would return.

Take the case of Iceland. One of the first victims of the financial crisis is already recovering...

By turning down the big banks offer, the country has set itself up for growth. It's population, unlike much of Europe, won't be saddled with the massive debt spawned bailing out zombie banks.

Meanwhile, banks remain firmly in control in Europe and the United States...

Interesting times ahead

Unfortunately, I see riots in Europe as a sign of things to come.

The U.S. should expect similar unrest within three years. States are broke, pensions are horribly underfunded, and a Medicare disaster looms on the horizon.

Something has to give.

And when it does, social programs will be slashed along with everything else. Unemployment, welfare, food stamps — all these things will face cuts. Do you want to be in Detroit when that happens? Or any major urban center, for that matter? Nothing against Detroit, of course. It's my dad's hometown. Unfortunately, it's the hardest hit city in America, and would be vulnerable to social unrest.

My goal isn't to frighten anybody; it's to underscore the importance of these issues.

Because so far, nothing fundamental has changed (oh, the irony of that word change), nor has anything been fixed. TBTF banks are more fail-proof than ever, lining their pockets at 2007 bubble levels.

The power-elite financiers remain in control: the same group of Bob Rubin devotees who set the stage for the meltdowns of 2000 and 2007 — Tim Geithner, JPM & Goldman, and of course the Bernank, among others.

Paul Volcker has gained a little more respect in the Obama administration, which is a positive development. Even the Fed has a few rational folks, like Hoenig and Fisher. But they're outnumbered 20-1 by banksters, of course.

On the verge

Not to be overly dramatic, but we stand at a historic crossroads. If we choose the right path, America and the world could be on a path to sustainable growth in as little as two to three years.

If we choose the wrong one — the road we're currently on, by the way — we're looking at least a decade of poor growth, likely negative growth in real terms (after inflation).

As asset prices rise due to Fed printing, living costs will increase. Wages will not keep up — they never do. Corporate margins will be squeezed and compressed. Not a pretty outcome.

Unfortunately, stagflation, the economist's worst nightmare, seems increasingly likely in America.

The answer lies in drastic gov't spending cuts, starting with military. But the wheels of progress turn slowly in DC, and they usually turn in the wrong direction.

The only consolation prize from this scenario, as I see it, is the bull market in precious metals. Metals should continue to gain until pressure finally forces the Fed to change course, which I suspect is still a ways off.

And that's why we've been advising readers to own gold and silver for the last five years.

Play the hand you're dealt, not the one you wish you were.

Adam Sharp
Analyst, Wealth Daily


.

Moody's Warns on Downgrade of Greece, Late and Again (Spain too ...
Dec 16, 2010 ... Another day, another late-late sovereign debt rating downgrade warning. Moody's has just placed the “Ba1″ rating of Greece on review for a ...
247wallst.com/.../moodys-warns-on-downgrade-of-greece-late-and-again- spain-too/

Moody's Puts Greek Ba1, 24 German Banks' Debt Rating On Downgrade ...
Dec 16, 2010 ... Moody's Investors Service has today placed Greece's Ba1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade. ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/.../moodys-put ... anks-debt- rating-downgrade-review -

Six Greek banks warned of Moody's downgrade‎ - 3 hours ago
(AFP) – 7 hours ago

ATHENS — Ratings agency Moody's on Friday said it had placed the deposit and debt standing of six Greek banks, including several leading lenders, on review for a possible downgrade after similarly placing Greece's own sovereign ratings on negative watch.

"Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for possible downgrade the deposit and debt ratings of ... National Bank of Greece (NBG), EFG Eurobank Ergasias, Alpha Bank, Piraeus Bank, Agricultural Bank of Greece (ATE) and Attica Bank," the agency said.

"In addition, the standalone bank financial strength ratings (BFSRs) of NBG, Eurobank and Alpha, have been placed on review for possible downgrade," Moody's added in a statement issued in Limassol.

The move came a day after the agency placed Greece's sovereign bond rating, currently at Ba1, or junk status for investors, on a similar downgrade watch.

The two measurements are linked, as a lower grade on Greek government bonds could increase pressure on banks that hold these maturities, Moody's said.

"A possible downgrade of the government's rating could lead to a downward adjustment to the country's systemic support indicator (SSI), which is the measure Moody's uses to determine bank rating uplift," the agency said.

In particular, it noted that the total government exposure of NBG, Eurobank and Alpha ranges from 80 to over 200 percent of their capital base.

NBG, Eurobank, Alpha and ATE, which rank among Greece's leading lenders, also had their ratings cut by Moody's on June 15, a day after it had pulled down Greece's sovereign grade by four notches, from A3 to Ba1.

A month later, four of the banks named on Friday had passed with varying success EU-wide stress tests designed to show resilience to another financial crisis.

State-owned ATE failed to make the grade and Attica was not in the lineup.

Greece is caught in a debt crisis and a snowballing recession that followed a scare on the accuracy of government statistics and a resulting spike in its borrowing costs earlier this year.

It was forced to appeal for a massive loan from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, in return for which it is currently pursuing tough and unpopular reforms to reduce a public deficit that stood at 15.4 percent of output last year, over five times the allowed EU level.

Ironically, Moody's noted Friday that "the additional fiscal adjustments now being implemented by the government may place further strain on the banks' asset quality."

Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved. More »

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... b236ba.611


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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Fri Dec 17, 2010 7:05 pm

UPDATE 4-Two states sue Bank of America on mortgage servicing
5:26pm EST

* Accused of misleading customers on loan modifications

* Accused of wrongly blaming investors for mod refusals

* Suits seek monetary penalties and restitution (Adds Nevada lawsuit, Arizona AG comments)

By Dan Levine

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The states of Arizona and Nevada sued Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Friday, accusing the largest U.S. bank of routinely misleading consumers about home loan modifications.

The two lawsuits, filed by each state attorney general in Arizona and Nevada state courts, seek potentially massive fines against the bank and compensation for customers.

Arizona accuses Bank of America of violating a 2009 consent judgment in which it committed to widespread home loan modifications. The bank failed to follow through, leaving borrowers in limbo, according to the suit.

The bank is also accused of violating the state's consumer fraud act.

Arizona is seeking $25,000 per violation of the consent decree, and up to $10,000 for consumer fraud breaches. Both states also ask that Bank of America pay restitution to customers.

The lawsuits could complicate Bank of America's efforts to quickly resolve inquiries into its mortgage foreclosure practices. The probes include a 50-state investigation that is also looking at JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Ally Financial and other major mortgage servicers.

Last month Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said a quick settlement of the 50-state probe would be the best solution for all involved.

Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, who is on the executive committee of the 50-state investigation, recently lost a run for governor in Arizona.

Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection this past November.

"This was an opportunity for the two states which have felt the biggest impact of the foreclosure crisis to stand up and say, 'This has got to stop,'" Goddard said in a phone interview.

Bank of America Home Loans spokesman Dan Frahm said the company is disappointed Goddard filed the suit during his last days as attorney general, and that the bank would continue to work with the multi-state process.

"That is the approach that will best broaden programs for homeowners who need assistance," Frahm said in an email.

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who heads the multi-state probe, said the legal activity "neither changes, nor dilutes, the strong and resolute multi-state effort to address serious problems that have been identified with a number of mortgage servicers."

Mortgage servicers have come under fire in recent months for abuses of the foreclosure process. In another foreclosure probe, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sent out a fresh round of subpoenas last week to big banks including Bank of America. [ID:nN17115205]

Bank of America temporarily halted home repossessions in October as it reviewed its internal processes.

James Tierney, director of the National State Attorneys General Program at Columbia Law School, said it would be difficult for incoming Arizona AG Tom Horne to simply withdraw the lawsuit when he takes office.

But if Bank of America cuts a deal with the multi-state investigation, Horne could decide to endorse it and argue against continued litigation.

"That's perfectly fine," Tierney said. "That's what AGs do."

According to Goddard, Bank of America representatives contacted Horne in a bid to head off a lawsuit. Goddard called the outreach "highly inappropriate," and said Horne took the same position.

Frahm said he was not aware of those interactions, and Horne did not respond to requests for comment.

In 2009 Bank of America agreed to a consent judgment over home loans made by its Countrywide unit. The bank committed to loan modifications which it valued at roughly $8.4 billion nationally, the Arizona lawsuit says.

The company violated the judgment by failing to make decisions on loan modifications, according to the suit.

Bank of America also misled consumers by telling them that their modifications were declined because investors in mortgage-backed securities had not approved them, even though in some cases no such permission was necessary, the lawsuit says.

Bank of America shares closed up 5 cents at $12.57 on the New York Stock Exchange.

The case in Superior Court of the State of Arizona, County of Maricopa is State of Arizona v. Countrywide Financial Corporation et al, 2010-033580.

The case in District Court for Clark County, Nevada is State of Nevada v. Bank of America Corp. et al, 10-631557. (Reporting by Dan Levine; Editing by Steve Orlofsky, John Wallace and Richard Chang)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1711272720101217

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby justdrew » Fri Dec 17, 2010 11:50 pm

Why Tax Cuts For The RICH Killed The economy in 1929 and Are Killing us again
Posted on December 16, 2010 by Ray Medeiros

Here is where the problem lies with the conservative argument defending tax breaks for the top 2%. It is causing a greater gap in our income brackets.

The disparity of income in this Country has grown to Gilded Age levels.

In 1925-26 the top marginal income tax was DROPPED from 73% to 25%. This caused the greatest disparity in income in our history until today.

The rich KEPT most of their money and it wasn’t distributed through out the economy.

What happens here is a smaller pool of people are HOLDING a larger share of the wealth.

This essentially puts a strain on DEMAND for products. The wealthiest can only consume so much and we all know it is CONSUMPTION that drives our economy. In fact it is 2/3rds of our economy.

In 1926 and now in 2010 we are at the same crossroads. The top 2% are holding a majority of the wealth and the pool of consumers has shrunk to pre-depression numbers.

(HOW MANY CARS IS PARIS HILTON GOING TO BUY?)

Essentially the majority of the wealth they are keeping is sitting in banks or stocks and even in the Cayman Islands. It is not creating demand, which puts people to work.

Raising the income tax on the top 2% enables greater tax credits,breaks and a lower income tax rate for working middle class people. This puts more money in the hands of MORE people, spurring demand to a greater amount than a handful of millionaires.
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Sat Dec 18, 2010 7:58 pm

Top 10 Economic Stories of 2010
By Maria Tomchick • on December 12, 2010 3:29 pm

1) In 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve functioned as the central bank for the entire world. Documents pried from the Federal Reserve in November show that dozens of foreign banks and an astonishing number of foreign governments lined up to get handouts from the Fed, who kept its client list a deeply protected secret. The recipients included most of Europe’s major banks: Barclay’s Bank, Bank of Scotland, RBS, Societe Generale, Dresdner Bank, Bayerische Landesbank, and Dexia. Also on the list are the central banks of Australia, Denmark, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, South Korea, Britain, and Japan.
If it had been publicly known at the time what the true, global extent of the crisis really was, the world’s economy would have completely collapsed. This is the biggest story of the year, perhaps of the entire past decade, but it’s received zero attention from the US press.

2) The Fed’s current policy of “quantitative easing” (QE I and QE II) are an under-the-table bailout of US corporations. By buying up medium- and long-term treasury bonds, the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero so US corporations can refinance a record amount of junk bonds that were set to come due in 2012, 2013, and 2014 (a total of $700 billion). Some corporations have been able to refinance their debt by issuing 50- or 100-year bonds. That’s insane. Most companies don’t stay in business for 10 years, much less 100 years.

3) The IMF rises from the dead…just in time to impose austerity measures on Greece, Ireland, and a host of other European Union countries. Of course, the one country that’s most responsible for the global economic crisis—the United States—doesn’t fall under the IMF’s purview. Instead, we get to do the opposite: extend the Bush tax cuts, extend the war in Afghanistan to at least 2014, and run up a record government deficit.

4) The financial industry is too big. Way too big. In the mid 1990’s it accounted for about 17% of the gross domestic product of the US. Now it accounts for over 60%. How did that change happen? Well, blame it on the worst Bush era tax cut ever devised: the 15% capital gains and dividend tax rate. When you give a tax cut for dividends and capital gains, you’re subsidizing the investment industry, which is now mostly composed of speculation: money in search of profits taxed at only 15%. So we get huge amounts of money invested in non-productive areas of the economy: derivatives, currency trading, speculation in commodities markets, hedge funds, and stupid venture capital investments that will never make a profit or provide a necessary service (i.e., Pets.com on steroids). Too big to fail? Yes, but it’s also too big to even comprehend.

5) More banks failed in 2010 than in 2009. The FDIC told us that 2009 would be the worst year of the crisis, but this year small and mid-sized banks continued to fail in record numbers. In 2008 the FDIC closed 25 banks; in 2009 the total was 140. As of November, the total for 2010 was above 150 and counting. Clearly, we still haven’t seen the worst of the crisis.

6) Meanwhile, the biggest banks are still misbehaving. From refusing to modify mortgage loans to using robo-signers and filing defective paperwork with bankruptcy courts, to sending a huge posse of lobbyists to Washington DC to gut the financial reform bill, the biggest banks have been operating as if the financial crisis never happened. And they’ve been racking up record profits and paying out enormous bonuses to their top management. Guess who’s really running this country?

7) Low-interest loans + bad banks = new perfect storm on the horizon. I won’t say more, or it will depress you.

8) Flash crashes are the wave of the future in the stock markets. (Yes, you read that right. “Stock markets,” plural. There are more than a dozen in the US alone.) If you don’t know what a “flash crash” is, then you should sell your stock right now and stick your money in your mattress, because you don’t know enough about investing to keep from losing your shirt. If computers have made it possible for everyone, including your grandma, to play the stock market, they’ve also made it possible for a few big sharks to crash the markets within milliseconds. And nothing’s being done to stop them.

9) Microcredit banks, which were heralded as the saviors of the poor in developing nations, are headed for a major collapse. It turns out that the nonprofits that extended small loans to poor people in developing nations from India to Sub-Saharan Africa have been operating just like the big US banks that caused the 2008 economic collapse. They saw a way to make a profit off the poor, and they went for it. Guess who’s going to pay for it all in the end?

10) It’s the end of 2010 and nobody’s been prosecuted for the mortgage meltdown, banking crisis, or the economic collapse. No one’s even been charged with a crime. Obama’s Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has turned out to be toothless, powerless, and invisible.

If George Orwell could have seen the real dimensions of our Brave New World, he wouldn’t have been worried about governmental control. In fact, maybe we ought to give Barack Obama a break: there’s only so much you can get away with before your boss gets really pissed off.

The question is: who’s the real boss? Is it Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs? Or is it you and me?

Maybe it’s time to stand up and show ‘em who’s boss.


http://www.eatthestate.org/top-10-econo ... s-of-2010/

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby JackRiddler » Sat Dec 18, 2010 8:43 pm

I think that's a fine listing for Top 10, but how is it possible that this incredible error about the size of the financial industry was not caught:

In the mid 1990’s it accounted for about 17% of the gross domestic product of the US. Now it accounts for over 60%.


Correct: The assets of the top 6 banks are equivalent to 60 percent of US GDP, up by a factor of 3+ since the 1990s. This stat, shocking enough in itself, has mutated through several misunderstandings, and I think this is the latest. Their liabilities would be about the same. The assets of the whole financial sector (as accounted on balance sheets, which are no longer mark to market and therefore more fictional than ever) are much higher than that. I think all US assets combined - all paper and real estate and capital - were valued at something like $55 trillion on the last Federal Reserve flow accounts report, or four times GDP. This is balance sheet value. It can't be sold for that, of course.

GDP is a measure of how much business is done in a year: annual product. The financial sector accounts for something like a quarter of what goes into GDP, up from 15 percent-ish in former times, and an even higher share of annual profit (I think 40 percent).

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby vanlose kid » Sat Dec 18, 2010 9:28 pm

JackRiddler wrote:I think that's a fine listing for Top 10, but how is it possible that this incredible error about the size of the financial industry was not caught:

In the mid 1990’s it accounted for about 17% of the gross domestic product of the US. Now it accounts for over 60%.


Correct: The assets of the top 6 banks are equivalent to 60 percent of US GDP, up by a factor of 3+ since the 1990s. This stat, shocking enough in itself, has mutated through several misunderstandings, and I think this is the latest. Their liabilities would be about the same. The assets of the whole financial sector (as accounted on balance sheets, which are no longer mark to market and therefore more fictional than ever) are much higher than that. I think all US assets combined - all paper and real estate and capital - were valued at something like $55 trillion on the last Federal Reserve flow accounts report, or four times GDP. This is balance sheet value. It can't be sold for that, of course.

GDP is a measure of how much business is done in a year: annual product. The financial sector accounts for something like a quarter of what goes into GDP, up from 15 percent-ish in former times, and an even higher share of annual profit (I think 40 percent).

.


good spot JR.

Simon Johnson: "From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent."

[ http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... coup/7364/ ]


still, 41%?

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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby Nordic » Sat Dec 18, 2010 10:12 pm

vanlose kid wrote:Top 10 Economic Stories of 2010
By Maria Tomchick • on December 12, 2010 3:29 pm

1) In 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve functioned as the central bank for the entire world. Documents pried from the Federal Reserve in November show that dozens of foreign banks and an astonishing number of foreign governments lined up to get handouts from the Fed, who kept its client list a deeply protected secret. The recipients included most of Europe’s major banks: Barclay’s Bank, Bank of Scotland, RBS, Societe Generale, Dresdner Bank, Bayerische Landesbank, and Dexia. Also on the list are the central banks of Australia, Denmark, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Sweden, South Korea, Britain, and Japan.
If it had been publicly known at the time what the true, global extent of the crisis really was, the world’s economy would have completely collapsed. This is the biggest story of the year, perhaps of the entire past decade, but it’s received zero attention from the US press.

2) The Fed’s current policy of “quantitative easing” (QE I and QE II) are an under-the-table bailout of US corporations. By buying up medium- and long-term treasury bonds, the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero so US corporations can refinance a record amount of junk bonds that were set to come due in 2012, 2013, and 2014 (a total of $700 billion). Some corporations have been able to refinance their debt by issuing 50- or 100-year bonds. That’s insane. Most companies don’t stay in business for 10 years, much less 100 years.

3) The IMF rises from the dead…just in time to impose austerity measures on Greece, Ireland, and a host of other European Union countries. Of course, the one country that’s most responsible for the global economic crisis—the United States—doesn’t fall under the IMF’s purview. Instead, we get to do the opposite: extend the Bush tax cuts, extend the war in Afghanistan to at least 2014, and run up a record government deficit.

4) The financial industry is too big. Way too big. In the mid 1990’s it accounted for about 17% of the gross domestic product of the US. Now it accounts for over 60%. How did that change happen? Well, blame it on the worst Bush era tax cut ever devised: the 15% capital gains and dividend tax rate. When you give a tax cut for dividends and capital gains, you’re subsidizing the investment industry, which is now mostly composed of speculation: money in search of profits taxed at only 15%. So we get huge amounts of money invested in non-productive areas of the economy: derivatives, currency trading, speculation in commodities markets, hedge funds, and stupid venture capital investments that will never make a profit or provide a necessary service (i.e., Pets.com on steroids). Too big to fail? Yes, but it’s also too big to even comprehend.

5) More banks failed in 2010 than in 2009. The FDIC told us that 2009 would be the worst year of the crisis, but this year small and mid-sized banks continued to fail in record numbers. In 2008 the FDIC closed 25 banks; in 2009 the total was 140. As of November, the total for 2010 was above 150 and counting. Clearly, we still haven’t seen the worst of the crisis.

6) Meanwhile, the biggest banks are still misbehaving. From refusing to modify mortgage loans to using robo-signers and filing defective paperwork with bankruptcy courts, to sending a huge posse of lobbyists to Washington DC to gut the financial reform bill, the biggest banks have been operating as if the financial crisis never happened. And they’ve been racking up record profits and paying out enormous bonuses to their top management. Guess who’s really running this country?

7) Low-interest loans + bad banks = new perfect storm on the horizon. I won’t say more, or it will depress you.

8) Flash crashes are the wave of the future in the stock markets. (Yes, you read that right. “Stock markets,” plural. There are more than a dozen in the US alone.) If you don’t know what a “flash crash” is, then you should sell your stock right now and stick your money in your mattress, because you don’t know enough about investing to keep from losing your shirt. If computers have made it possible for everyone, including your grandma, to play the stock market, they’ve also made it possible for a few big sharks to crash the markets within milliseconds. And nothing’s being done to stop them.

9) Microcredit banks, which were heralded as the saviors of the poor in developing nations, are headed for a major collapse. It turns out that the nonprofits that extended small loans to poor people in developing nations from India to Sub-Saharan Africa have been operating just like the big US banks that caused the 2008 economic collapse. They saw a way to make a profit off the poor, and they went for it. Guess who’s going to pay for it all in the end?

10) It’s the end of 2010 and nobody’s been prosecuted for the mortgage meltdown, banking crisis, or the economic collapse. No one’s even been charged with a crime. Obama’s Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has turned out to be toothless, powerless, and invisible.

If George Orwell could have seen the real dimensions of our Brave New World, he wouldn’t have been worried about governmental control. In fact, maybe we ought to give Barack Obama a break: there’s only so much you can get away with before your boss gets really pissed off.

The question is: who’s the real boss? Is it Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs? Or is it you and me?

Maybe it’s time to stand up and show ‘em who’s boss.


http://www.eatthestate.org/top-10-econo ... s-of-2010/

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Damn, Vanlose, that's a hell of a link, thanks for posting it.

That needs to get some serious spreading around.
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Re: "End of Wall Street Boom" - Must-read history

Postby anothershamus » Sat Dec 18, 2010 11:30 pm



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