The underpopulation crisis

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The underpopulation crisis

Postby Stephen Morgan » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:25 pm

There is an idea commonly put about by the business and intellectual elites that the earth is over populated, that there is no way in the long term to support the current mass of humanity and, to be blunt about the matter, that they heartily wish most of us were dead.

The environmentalist movement, with their talk about tough choices and changing minds has enthusiastically jumped on the bandwagon.

In reality two things are responsible for the current state of the environment. One is the way of life we have adopted, which would be unsustainable even if there were only five hundred million people on the earth, or indeed five million for that matter. The other is, unpopular though the idea will be, underpopulation.

The lack of people means a lack of pressure to support natural resources such as fish stocks at levels which produce the highest harvests, lack of pressure to make much potentially productive arable land fertile and a lack of labour in the third world, not to mention a lack of higher food prices which would encourage third world producers to produce and first world producers to produce without massive subsidies.

I've even heard it suggested that lower population would lessen unemployment, even though our economy is based on services and would lose money with less people to provide services to.

A true overpopulation crisis would imply the efficient use of resources wasn't enough to sustain us, but African farmers produce nothing because of American subsidised imports, Caribean sugar plantations close down and revert to jungle because of European beet production.

Farmers of African rice are outcompeted by USG sponsored giveaways, and we all know they wouldn't give something away if it had a marketable value.

We also often hear that we are wiping away our environmental capital, and modern extensive agriculture techniques make this partly true but very misleading. Nature didn't give us a capital to use up, our predecessors created it. They spent their lives, more than they knew, on higher fish stocks, higher water tables and thicker top soil.

Men spent centuries digging leaf mould, bone meal, coal ash and excrement into the soil. Laying hedges to break wind and stop the erosion of top soil, to create new soil with their leaves, to hold water in the land with their roots.

The oldest building in Britain isn't stone henge. It's a tree. There are those who will quibble about my classification of a tree as a building, as there are those who say the pyramids aren't buildings, but this tree, which to the naked eye looks more like a forest, has been entirely shaped by man and due to man's efforts has long outlived its likely natural lifespan, not to mention those of all the humans who have tended it. It's a normal lime tree, grown into a copse through the cultivating efforts of dozens of generations of coppicers.

Even fish stocks have us to thank for their former high levels, fed by the siltation caused by land clearance and arable farming. The food production increases in Egypt brough about by the Nasser dam were cancelled out by the almos total destruction of their fisheries as the dam stopped silt from the Ethiopian highlands reaching the sea. The antiquity of the Ethiopian civilisation can be shown by the fact that Egypt, from earliest times, was reliant on the Nile silt, which in turn depended upon cultivation of the land around it's upper courses in Abyssinia.

Even before the advent of arable farming, humanity had long been sedentary and had planted the seeds of those plants he found useful so that they would be in greater plenty in future years. Hunter gatherers weren't nomads. They stayed in one place and, as has generally been the case with humans, shaped the land around them. They essentially created the species we eat today, both plants and animals, things we have no reason to thank nature for.

Primitives were like us, and they and their successors created the productive land we have today. They weren't nomads wandering about the place in yurts, abandoning each area as it became exhausted only to move onto the next patch until they killed they too. They didn't practice slash and burn like some loin cloth wearing Mayan savage, or some weak chinned aristocrat looking to encourage grouse numbers.

Mankind made the earth a suitable environment for himself and hasn't so far finished. That's the great work of mankind that we should be continuing, not reversing.

A word on fish. We have already passed peak fish. A properly sustainable fishing industry would produce more fish than we do now, but current practices such as dredging up breeding grounds on the sea floor have done damage. The logical conclusion would be a moratorium on fishing for a few years, which may seem unrealistic but is less unrealistic than the annihilation of 90% or more of the human race. Well, hopefully, at least. Then go back to fishing with more sustainable practices and higher yields.

Ultimately I would like to see global populations reach ten milliards. This should be doable by extending the lives of those in countries which have shorter life expectancies. Populations should increase enough before higher standard of living reduces birthrates.

I would like to see India continue to rebuild its ancestral water storage to maximise use of the monsoons and replenish the water table. I would like to see money spent on sand dams to create more usable land in Africa. I'd like to see western subsidies dropped and west African grain allowed into our markets. I'd like to see those hedges destroyed by fickle EU CAP policies replanted. I'd like to see those parts of the Amazon left as unused grass land replants with trees, the Maya nuts and other edible species, and populated with people so as to cultivate the land and revivify it.

The spectre that haunts our race is that of abandonment. Of the lights going out and the cities becoming empty. The Saxons arriving in the cities of the Romans and Welsh which they thought were built by giants, but which had been abandoned even by the degenerate remnant of Welshmen hiding away in their hillforts and coastal fastnesses. The empty cathedral of Simon Stylites, once holding 15,000 people and now gone, with dozens of surrounding settlements which still stand empty today because of the shifting of trade routes. The empty homes of south-western America, the population dead because of bad land management. The mounds of the Cahokians, the empty lands above the Exe, the Great Zimbabwe, the Canarian pyramids, the megalithic Baalbek and Lexis, the dried oases of the Tarim. The dead Mycenae and Hattusas. The Pope and some peasants squatting in the Forum. The European farmland abadoned after the black death, so much of it taken over by the wildwoods that carbon in the atmosphere dropped enough to cause the mini-ice-age.

Well and such collapse now would be global. We will either do what we were born to do, tame the earth, fill it up, spread life over its surface and wrest life from the dust, or we will continue on our current path, with doesn't just use resources but destroys them, which causes most damage with least people and which will ultimately make us a cancer which destroys both its host and itself.
Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible. -- Lawrence of Arabia
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Mx32 » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:03 pm

"They stayed in one place and, as has generally been the case with humans, shaped the land around them. They essentially created the species we eat today, both plants and animals, things we have no reason to thank nature for."

anyone have a clue how our ancient ancestors/primitive cultures developed edible crops? I'm assuming no science books,no machinery,no labs, no genetic modification, no knowledge of plant breeding...imagine taking a few of any 11 year olds alive today, dumping them in a forest and then watching to see if they, over generations, randomly stumble on the techniques to create novel foods.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby DrVolin » Wed Feb 10, 2010 10:27 pm

Pick up a copy of David Rindos' The Origins of Agriculture: An Evolutionary Perspective.
all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody hands of the hypnotized
Who carry the cross of homicide
And history bears the scars of our civil wars

--Guns and Roses
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu Feb 11, 2010 12:49 am

I've even heard it suggested that lower population would lessen unemployment, even though our economy is based on services and would lose money with less people to provide services to.


...and I'm the guy with his arms crossed in the back of the auditorium yelling "THANK YOU! YES!"
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Stephen Morgan » Thu Feb 11, 2010 5:04 pm

Mx32 wrote:anyone have a clue how our ancient ancestors/primitive cultures developed edible crops? I'm assuming no science books,no machinery,no labs, no genetic modification, no knowledge of plant breeding...imagine taking a few of any 11 year olds alive today, dumping them in a forest and then watching to see if they, over generations, randomly stumble on the techniques to create novel foods.


Well they supposedly had thousands of years to figure it out, with the increasing food supply supporting an increasing population. Sometimes it's obvious. Wild almonds are poisonous and resultingly foul tasting. Probably tried the same thing with lots of plants. You learn which almond tree is nice tasting, you plant the seeds. Do the same with an oak tree and the next generation won't inherit the edible acorns. The same applies to animals. Donkeys can't be bred to be the same speed and size as horses, although in early historic times they were very similar. Only the late development of animals capable of transporting humans and cargos led to nomadism. Before that knowledge of local food sources was the route to survival, not the sequential usage of areas of inedible grassland as animal feed.

It could even have been a destructive matter: this almond tree tastes foul, lets burn it. This one's nice, let's keep it.

There's also the fact that humans don't often eat edible plants, only plants that can be ate only after cooking, such as grains, potatoes, things that often even four-stomached ungulents can't manage.

And the domestication does continue today, relatively recently the macadamia, the jojoba and canis vulpis. Foxes bred to be friendly, obedient and gloppy eared. I've always believed dogs probably came about by humans raising the fluffy puppys of wolves they'd killed, but the official story is that clever dogs scavenged around human settlements until humans got tired of chasing them away.

DrVolin wrote:Pick up a copy of David Rindos' The Origins of Agriculture: An Evolutionary Perspective.


What's it about?

Wombaticus Rex wrote:
I've even heard it suggested that lower population would lessen unemployment, even though our economy is based on services and would lose money with less people to provide services to.


...and I'm the guy with his arms crossed in the back of the auditorium yelling "THANK YOU! YES!"


Does that mean I'm giving a lecture? You know they have a terget for unemployment, a minimal level for it which stops supply and demand giving "excessive" bargaining power to workers.
Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible. -- Lawrence of Arabia
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu Feb 11, 2010 5:23 pm

Cybernetic control is all about optimization, baby. Those aren't people, those are assets.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby wintler2 » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:27 am

Underpopulation crisis?? You have got to be kidding, this is a draft for The Onion right? Or maybe you're prolife?

Too many factual errors to count in the OP, siltation does not improve fish stocks, trees are not buildings "shaped entirely by mans efforts", and the third world is not suffering from a lack of labor.

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Any questions? I believe agriculture (mining soil carbon, circa 10k yrs ago) gets the credit for setting human population on rising trajectory, but it was mining fossil fuel carbon that really 'lit a fire' under our (now) exponential growth in numbers. Now oil has peaked (& coal & NG will) our numbers will likely decline in tandem, barring fairy rescue, but thats a different & future story.

Some Western nations are demographically aging, big deal, they pay immigrant 'guestworkers' and capitalism limps along, bearing the redistribution of wealth with some grumbling. I can't guess at what might have motivated your text, and i can't imagine underpopulation will be an easy barrow to push.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby smiths » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:56 am

our economy is based on services

ha ha ha

your economy is based on richly embroidered and stunningly elaborate clothing borrowed from the proverbial emperor
ours is based on digging shit up and selling it the chinese

no global economy can function on people cleaning other peoples houses etc

under-population? there are times when exposure to human opinions really dents my optimism for this species
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:12 am

I think the the earths underpopulation crisis doesn't include humans...
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:53 am

Joe Hillshoist wrote:I think the the earths underpopulation crisis doesn't include humans...


We have a severe tiger and lion underpopulation problem that frankly supercedes any human problems I'm aware of in 2010.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:07 am

Fish underpopulation problems abound.

Bees struggle with it.

Its a massive issue actually.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:09 am

Even before the advent of arable farming, humanity had long been sedentary and had planted the seeds of those plants he found useful so that they would be in greater plenty in future years. Hunter gatherers weren't nomads. They stayed in one place and, as has generally been the case with humans, shaped the land around them. They essentially created the species we eat today, both plants and animals, things we have no reason to thank nature for.


This is such a misunderstanding of what the author is actually talking about...

There is some truth to it. EG When Kakadu became a national park back in the early 80s the local blackfellas were banned from hunting in the new park.

Within 2 years the numbers of goanna had increased so much that they had began to move from the rocky escarpments down onto the wetlands threatening the massive bird populations ...

So that particular ban was lifted.

Not quite the same as shaping the land around them in the sense the author means.
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby Stephen Morgan » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:33 pm

wintler2 wrote:Underpopulation crisis?? You have got to be kidding, this is a draft for The Onion right? Or maybe you're prolife?


Of course I'm pro-life, but that's hardly relevant.

Too many factual errors to count in the OP, siltation does not improve fish stocks,


Technically it's the silt itself which acts as a kind of marine fertiliser. wiki:

Damming the Nile has caused a number of environmental and cultural problems. It flooded much of lower Nubia and over 60,000 people were displaced. Lake Nasser flooded valuable archaeological sites such as the Buhen fort. The valuable silt which the Nile deposited ashore in the yearly floods and made the Nile floodplain fertile is now held behind the dam. Silt deposited in the reservoir is lowering the water storage capacity of Lake Nasser. Poor irrigation practices beyond the dam are water logging soils and bringing salt to the surface. Mediterranean fishing declined after the dam was finished because nutrients that used to flow down the Nile to the Mediterranean were trapped behind the dam.

trees are not buildings "shaped entirely by mans efforts",


Not all of them, of course. I'm talking specifically about those which are, in the traditions of pollarding and coppicing, and the tradition of shaping wood (for example the now defunct continental practice of bracing trees to produce L shaped bits of wood as the corners of ships).

and the third world is not suffering from a lack of labor.


Too many people shoved in slums when they could be put to useful cultivational work.

Any questions? I believe agriculture (mining soil carbon, circa 10k yrs ago) gets the credit for setting human population on rising trajectory, but it was mining fossil fuel carbon that really 'lit a fire' under our (now) exponential growth in numbers. Now oil has peaked (& coal & NG will) our numbers will likely decline in tandem, barring fairy rescue, but thats a different & future story.


Yes, the well known magical fertility raising power of the hydrocarbon. Populations have been going steeply up since before widespread coal usage, and in the first world, which uses most of the hydrocarbon, populations have hardly increased since oil overtook coal in the early to mid twentieth century. If anything oil has had a suppressive effect on numbers.

Some Western nations are demographically aging, big deal, they pay immigrant 'guestworkers' and capitalism limps along, bearing the redistribution of wealth with some grumbling. I can't guess at what might have motivated your text, and i can't imagine underpopulation will be an easy barrow to push.


I do have something of a tendency to follow the unpopular cause. Now, take your anti-human agenda and shove it up your pim-hole.
Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible. -- Lawrence of Arabia
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby brekin » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:00 pm

Stephen Morgan wrote:


The oldest building in Britain isn't stone henge. It's a tree. There are those who will quibble about my classification of a tree as a building, as there are those who say the pyramids aren't buildings, but this tree, which to the naked eye looks more like a forest, has been entirely shaped by man and due to man's efforts has long outlived its likely natural lifespan, not to mention those of all the humans who have tended it. It's a normal lime tree, grown into a copse through the cultivating efforts of dozens of generations of coppicers.


This cries out for a picture. Does anyone have one of the above?
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Re: The underpopulation crisis

Postby JackRiddler » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:10 pm

Morgan, I had no idea you were such an accomplished essayist. And with expertise in land and food issues.

Nevertheless, even taking your facts as given, I see no credible argument in your piece for claiming there are too few humans on the planet - only for arguing that the proportion who live in cities as opposed to farming lands is now badly skewed.

You can read the argument that high population growth contributes to employment in the pages of the Wall Street Journal and the publications of libertarian think-tanks. European governments have waged PR campaigns on behalf of fertility among their (white) populations. American right-wingers crow all the time about how the "demographic crisis" will cause those socialistic Europeans to go extinct, even as they decry the supposed imminence of a "Muslim Europe."

So your ideas about population are hardly taboo among the elites. Or does "elite" only ever refer to "liberal" ideas?

The concept of unemployment necessarily goes with the modern idea, under capitalist and industrial systems, in which work is defined mainly through paid employment. The category didn't make sense before that outside cities, which were less than 5 percent of the population. ("Unemployment" in a peasant village would have meant they were suffering a famine.) Empirically, employment has gone up when population went down (due to war and plagues, for example), but don't let that get in the way of your argument. Unemployment nowadays is mainly a function of economic factors other than population change rates, as you admit downthread. Employers will always want some.

I don't know what you think you're doing here:

Primitives were like us, and they and their successors created the productive land we have today. They weren't nomads wandering about the place in yurts, abandoning each area as it became exhausted only to move onto the next patch until they killed they too. They didn't practice slash and burn like some loin cloth wearing Mayan savage, or some weak chinned aristocrat looking to encourage grouse numbers.


Which primitives? Who are "we"? Don't yurt dwellers and "loin-cloth wearing Mayan savages" count as primitives in your sense? Weren't the humans of 250,000 to 20,000 years ago nomadic, or at least tending to move from place to place? (If not, how did they spread all over the Earth despite their low population numbers?) It's true they stayed in one place and cultivated the biological resources, as you describe, but then they moved on. Why?

Anyway, thanks for making your prejudices explicit with "some loin cloth wearing Mayan savage."

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