Belligerent Savant » Mon May 06, 2024 1:54 am wrote:I'm going to reiterate one last time here: my premise is NOT that climate fluctuations aren't occurring; indeed, climate fluctuations -- sometimes sudden, sometimes drawn out -- have occurred thoughout the history of the world, well before humans existed. The point is that 'climate alarm' is foolish as there will always be fluctuations to climate for myriad reasons. Austerity measures will NOT change these fluctuations. To believe otherwise is to believe in non-science and propaganda.
The Earth’s atmosphere is far more complex than our current models can handle.
That aside, the reality is that our human-era climate -- the climate experienced on Earth throughout most if not all of of human existence -- is actually anomalous/non-standard. What we may be experiencing, over the course of the next few hundred years [certainly not imminently] is a 'regression to the mean'.
Much of Earth's history consisted of 'Equable Climate':
https://groups.seas.harvard.edu/climate ... index.htmlEquable Climate? What Does That Mean?
During various points in the Earth's history, the global climate has been equable. You are probably wondering what an equable climate is. Simply put, it is a period in Earth's history when the temperature was roughly equal everywhere in the world. In the past, this state existed because the poles were significantly warmer than they are currently, while the Tropics remained at roughly present day temperatures.When the Earth has an equable climate, the equator to pole temperature difference (EPTD) is much lower than it is now, and the seasonality—the temperature variation from summer to winter—is also much lower. Fifty million years ago, during a recent era of equable climate, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean were in the subtropical range, between 64° and 77°F; In Antarctica, palm trees grew and frost was a rare event. In effect, the tropics extended north and south from the equator much further than they do now, and subtropical conditions extended from there to the poles.
It was a very different world. The only glaciers were on high mountains close to the poles. The only deserts were in the rain shadows of tall mountain ranges. Snow was a rarity away from mountain summits. The Sahara and the Arabian peninsula? Green and fertile, watered with regular rains. The world was wrapped in a springtime that lasted for millions of years.
It should go without typing that even if the Earth returned to the exact same climate as described above, it would NOT be 'devastating'. To the contrary. Further: if the Earth does indeed return to an 'Equable Climate', it will not happen suddenly, but rather, gradually over hundreds of years. PLENTY of time for sensible, incremental adjustments to living conditions in the appropriate regions.
What's missing here is that there were no humans around last time we had a climate like that. It doesn't matter what the climate was like millions of years ago, it matters what it's like now, when human civilization exists.
Back then the average temperature of Earth was more than 10C hotter than today, and the changes took thousands or millions of years, not hundreds. If the climate went back to that we'd be thoroughly fucked. Most of human civilization would be under water to start with (if Antarctica and Greenland melts sea levels will rise by about 210 feet), along with a good chunk of our arable land. What new land became available would be mostly useless, because good topsoil doesn't just happen overnight. Then the oceans would be way hotter than today, which would fuck up everything living in them and currently feeding over a billion people. Throw in the thousands of viruses and shit currently trapped in the permafrost, insane power consumption just to keep everyone from dying of heatstroke (funny thing, if you evolve in a cool climate you struggle in a hot one), massive migrations as every major city disappears under the waves, etc., and you have a half-decent Roland Emmerich movie on your hands.
