Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

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Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby slomo » Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:49 am

Dodgy source, but interesting fodder for discussion or woo-tainment on RI:

Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

THE aliens are out there and Earth had better watch out, at least according to Stephen Hawking. He has suggested that extraterrestrials are almost certain to exist — but that instead of seeking them out, humanity should be doing all it that can to avoid any contact.

The suggestions come in a new documentary series in which Hawking, one of the world’s leading scientists, will set out his latest thinking on some of the universe’s greatest mysteries.

Alien life, he will suggest, is almost certain to exist in many other parts of the universe: not just in planets, but perhaps in the centre of stars or even floating in interplanetary space.

Hawking’s logic on aliens is, for him, unusually simple. The universe, he points out, has 100 billion galaxies, each containing hundreds of millions of stars. In such a big place, Earth is unlikely to be the only planet where life has evolved.

The answer, he suggests, is that most of it will be the equivalent of microbes or simple animals — the sort of life that has dominated Earth for most of its history.

One scene in his documentary for the Discovery Channel shows herds of two-legged herbivores browsing on an alien cliff-face where they are picked off by flying, yellow lizard-like predators. Another shows glowing fluorescent aquatic animals forming vast shoals in the oceans thought to underlie the thick ice coating Europa, one of the moons of Jupiter.

Such scenes are speculative, but Hawking uses them to lead on to a serious point: that a few life forms could be intelligent and pose a threat. Hawking believes that contact with such a species could be devastating for humanity.

He suggests that aliens might simply raid Earth for its resources and then move on: “We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn’t want to meet. I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet. Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach.”

He concludes that trying to make contact with alien races is “a little too risky”. He said: “If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn’t turn out very well for the Native Americans.”

The completion of the documentary marks a triumph for Hawking, now 68, who is paralysed by motor neurone disease and has very limited powers of communication. The project took him and his producers three years, during which he insisted on rewriting large chunks of the script and checking the filming.

John Smithson, executive producer for Discovery, said: “He wanted to make a programme that was entertaining for a general audience as well as scientific and that’s a tough job, given the complexity of the ideas involved.”

Hawking has suggested the possibility of alien life before but his views have been clarified by a series of scientific breakthroughs, such as the discovery, since 1995, of more than 450 planets orbiting distant stars, showing that planets are a common phenomenon.

So far, all the new planets found have been far larger than Earth, but only because the telescopes used to detect them are not sensitive enough to detect Earth-sized bodies at such distances.

Another breakthrough is the discovery that life on Earth has proven able to colonise its most extreme environments. If life can survive and evolve there, scientists reason, then perhaps nowhere is out of bounds.

Hawking’s belief in aliens places him in good scientific company. In his recent Wonders of the Solar System BBC series, Professor Brian Cox backed the idea, too, suggesting Mars, Europa and Titan, a moon of Saturn, as likely places to look.

Similarly, Lord Rees, the astronomer royal, warned in a lecture earlier this year that aliens might prove to be beyond human understanding.

“I suspect there could be life and intelligence out there in forms we can’t conceive,” he said. “Just as a chimpanzee can’t understand quantum theory, it could be there are aspects of reality that are beyond the capacity of our brains.”
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby justdrew » Fri May 07, 2010 9:34 pm

[url=http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/3927/]Why Stephen Hawking—and everyone else—is wrong about alien threats
George Dvorsky[/url]

Sentient Developments

May 02, 2010

Stephen Hawking is arguing that humanity may be putting itself in mortal peril by actively trying to contact aliens (an approach that is referred to as Active SETI). I’ve got five reasons why he is wrong.

Hawking has said that, “If aliens visit us, the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn’t turn out well for the Native Americans.”

He’s basically arguing that extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs), once alerted to our presence, may swoop in and indiscriminately take what they need from us—and possibly destroy us in the process; David Brin paraphrased Hawking’s argument by saying, “All living creatures inherently use resources to the limits of their ability, inventing new aims, desires and ambitions to suit their next level of power. If they wanted to use our solar system, for some super project, our complaints would be like an ant colony protesting the laying of a parking lot.”

It’s best to keep quiet, goes the thinking, lest we attract any undesirable alien elements.

A number of others have since chimed in and offered their two cents, writers like Robin Hanson, Julian Savulescu, and Paul Davies, along with Brin and many more. But what amazes me is that everyone is getting it wrong.
image
Here’s the deal, people:


1. If aliens wanted to find us, they would have done so already

First, the Fermi Paradox reminds us that the Galaxy could have been colonized many times over by now. We’re late for the show.

Second, let’s stop for a moment and think about the nature of a civilization that has the capacity for interstellar travel. We’re talking about a civ that has (1) survived a technological Singularity event, (2) is in the possession of molecular-assembling nanotechnology and radically advanced artificial intelligence, and (3) has made the transition from biological to digital substrate (space-faring civs will not be biological—and spare me your antiquated Ring World scenarios).

Now that I’ve painted this picture for you, and under the assumption that ETIs are proactively searching for potentially dangerous or exploitable civilizations, what could possibly prevent them from finding us? Assuming this is important to them, their communications and telescopic technologies would likely be off the scale. Bracewell probes would likely pepper the Galaxy. And Hubble bubble limitations aside, they could use various spectroscopic and other techniques to identify not just life bearing planets, but civilization bearing planets (i.e. looking for specific post-industrial chemical compounds in the atmosphere, such as elevated levels of carbon dioxide).

Moreover, whether we like it or not, we have been ‘shouting out to the cosmos’ for quite some time now. Ever since the first radio signal beamed its way out into space we have made our presence known to anyone caring to listen to us within a radius of about 80 light years.

The cat’s out of the bag, folks.

2. If ETIs wanted to destroy us, they would have done so by now

I’ve already written about this and I suggest you read my article, “If aliens wanted to they would have destroyed us by now.”

But I’ll give you one example. Keeping the extreme age of the Galaxy in mind, and knowing that every single solar system in the Galaxy could have been seeded many times over by now with various types of self-replicating probes, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that a civilization hell-bent on looking out for threats could have planted a dormant berserker probe in our solar system. Such a probe would be waiting to be activated by a radio signal, an indication that a potentially dangerous pre-Singularity intelligence now resides in the ‘hood.

In other words, we should have been destroyed the moment our first radio signal made its way through the solar system.

But because we’re still here, and because we’re on the verge of graduating to post-Singularity status, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll be destroyed by an ETI. Either that or they’re waiting to see what kind of post-Singularity type emerges from human civilization. They may still choose to snuff us out the moment they’re not satisfied with whatever it is they see.

Regardless, our communication efforts, whether active or passive, will have no bearing on the outcome.

3. If aliens wanted our solar system’s resources, they would haven taken them by now

Again, given that we’re talking about a space-faring post-Singularity intelligence, it’s ridiculous to suggest that we have anything of material value for a civilization of this type. They only thing I can think of is the entire planet itself which they could convert into computronium (Jupiter brain)—but even that’s a stretch; we’re just a speck of dust.

If anything, they may want to tap into our sun’s energy output (e.g., they could build a Dyson Sphere or Matrioshka brain) or convert our gas giants into massive supercomputers.

It’s important to keep in mind that the only resource a post-Singularity machine intelligence could possibly want is one that furthers their ability to perform megascale levels of computation.

And it’s worth noting that, once again, our efforts to make contact will have no influence on this scenario. If they want our stuff they’ll just take it.

4. Human civilization has absolutely nothing to offer a post-Singularity intelligence

But what if it’s not our resources they want? Perhaps we have something of a technological or cultural nature that’s appealing.

Well, what could that possibly be? Hmm, think, think think….

What would a civilization that can crunch 10^42 operations per second want from us wily and resourceful humans….

Hmm, I’m thinking it’s iPads? Yeah, iPads. That must be it. Or possibly yogurt.

5. Extrapolating biological tendencies to a post-Singularity intelligence is asinine

There’s another argument out there that suggests we can’t know the behavior or motivational tendencies of ETI’s, therefore we need to tread very carefully. Fair enough. But where this argument goes too far is in the suggestion that advanced civs act in accordance to their biological ancestry.

For examples, humans may actually be nice relative to other civs who, instead of evolving from benign apes, evolved from nasty insects or predatory lizards.

I’m astounded by this argument. Developmental trends in human history have not been driven by atavistic psychological tendencies, but rather by such things as technological advancements, resource scarcity, economics, politics and many other factors. Yes, human psychology has undeniably played a role in our transition from jungle-dweller to civilizational species (traits like inquisitiveness and empathy), but those are low-level factors that ultimately take a back seat to the emergent realities of technological, demographic, economic and politico-societal development.

Moreover, advanced civilizations likely converge around specific survivalist fitness peaks that result in the homogenization of intelligence; there won’t be a lot of wiggle room in the space of all possible survivable post-Singularity modes. In other words, an insectoid post-Singularity SAI or singleton will almost certainly be identical to one derived from ape lineage.

Therefore, attempts to extrapolate ‘human nature’ or ‘ETI nature’ to the mind of its respective post-Singularity descendant is equally problematic. The psychology or goal structure of an SAI will be of a profoundly different quality than that of a biological mind that evolved through the processes of natural selection. While we may wish to impose certain values and tendencies onto an SAI, there’s no guarantee that a ‘mind’ of that capacity will retain even a semblance of it’s biological nature.

So there you have it.

Transmit messages into the cosmos. Or don’t. It doesn’t really matter because in all likelihood no one’s listening and no one really cares. And if I’m wrong, it still doesn’t matter—ETIs will find us and treat us according to their will.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Simulist » Fri May 07, 2010 9:50 pm

And if they wanted us as cattle on their factory-farm planetary plantation, unaware of their presence, they would have gathered us into herds by now. Oh, wait...

;)
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 07, 2010 11:47 pm

Dvorsky is a lot more convicing.

The resource argument is ridiculous. A civilization that masters the space tech and logistics to the extent that they could launch an aggressive invasion of inhabited planets at distances of many light-years would have no need of such invasions. If we imagine that they can travel faster than light, or if they live thousands or millions of years and have a different understanding of time, then they would have the means to map out large swathes of galaxy and locate thousands of whatever type of planet (or other celestial habitat) they like best. They would have access to unlimited living space and mineral resources. There is little doubt they would be able to geoengineer and seed planets with whatever life they felt like.

I know I'm using earth-based logic that could be completely different from whatever thought system these aliens may have. But Hawking is applying the same tools. By earth logic, the only reason the spacefarers would have to treat us with hostility would be if they thought we might one day pose a threat to them. It's also possible that they would blow us up for sport. They might possess us telepathically as a means of getting high, or use us in experiments in the service of pure science of it. They might be larger than continents, and land themselves on top of us without taking much notice of what they've crushed.

The idea that we shouldn't be broadcasting our existence to them is also ridiculous. As Dvorksy says, we have already done that. Hawking's belated advice is hardly going to cause us to suspend all radio broadcasts and hope they don't detect the last 100 years of such broadcasts. There is little doubt they've already noticed us. The question is not whether they want to kill us - highly unlikely - but whether they will consider us worthy of note enough that they won't incidentally swipe us aside.

Which brings me to a thread I've kicked a few times but never seems to have inspired the same level of interest as it does for me.

What the aliens are watching on Earth TV...
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/ ... p?p=285616
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Simulist » Sat May 08, 2010 12:03 am

Everybody (well, everybody who's worried) seems to be worried about non-human intelligence — alien to this planet — arriving and then, well... doing something nasty.

If there is non-human intelligence to be worried about, might it not already be "here"? And perhaps "here" for a very long time? It might even be that it's not actually from any other locale in this universe but "here."

(And that's if humans even understand where — and what — "here" really is at all, which I now doubt pretty seriously.)
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Ben D » Sat May 08, 2010 3:35 am

Esoteric traditions hold that there is more to evolution than merely the material aspect, the cosmic processes may be more mysterious than most of mankind are yet aware.

A little piece from Rumi,..and read ET, Elohim or Watcher where Angel is mentioned.

I died as a mineral and became a plant;
I died as a plant and rose to animal;
I died as an animal and I was a man.
Why should I fear?
When was I less by dying?
Yet once more I shall die as man to soar...
With angels blest.
But even from an angel I must pass on:
All except God must perish.
When I have sacrificed my angel soul,
I shall become what no mind ever conceived.


Man is in appearance a derivative of the world,
But intrinsically the origin of the world
. - Jalaluddin Rumi ...

Oh,..and for those that have not yet read this,...enjoy...
They're Made Out of Meat
There is That which was not born, nor created, nor evolved. If it were not so, there would never be any refuge from being born, or created, or evolving. That is the end of suffering. That is God**.

** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby justdrew » Sat May 08, 2010 3:41 am

Ben D wrote:Oh,..and for those that have not yet read this,...enjoy...
They're Made Out of Meat


there's also a nice short film made from the story:
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Ben D » Sat May 08, 2010 3:47 am

justdrew wrote:there's also a nice short film made from the story:

Great, thanks justdrew.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Sat May 08, 2010 7:40 am

Simulist wrote:Everybody (well, everybody who's worried) seems to be worried about non-human intelligence — alien to this planet — arriving and then, well... doing something nasty.

If there is non-human intelligence to be worried about, might it not already be "here"? And perhaps "here" for a very long time? It might even be that it's not actually from any other locale in this universe but "here."

(And that's if humans even understand where — and what — "here" really is at all, which I now doubt pretty seriously.)


What about the fucking human intelligences...

"Hi I'm from Falluja and really worried about this alien invasion thingee. Whats gonna happen when they turn up and do something nasty? And I don't know what'll happen if C'thulu comes back. That'd be bad."


Thats a great story isn't it Bendy.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Penguin » Sat May 08, 2010 10:22 am

JackRiddler wrote:Which brings me to a thread I've kicked a few times but never seems to have inspired the same level of interest as it does for me.

What the aliens are watching on Earth TV...
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/ ... p?p=285616


That thought always brings a cold perspiration to my forehead.
If they are watching and are able to decipher the semantic content of those transmissions...
The picture sure won't be flattering.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Simulist » Sat May 08, 2010 11:33 am

Joe Hillshoist wrote:What about the fucking human intelligences...

Human stupidity (especially when enshrined in belief and then venerated) will do us in long before anything else ever could.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby operator kos » Sat May 08, 2010 1:43 pm

justdrew wrote:there's also a nice short film made from the story:


great, thanks!
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby Stephen Morgan » Sat May 08, 2010 2:43 pm

JackRiddler wrote:Dvorsky is a lot more convicing.


No-one mentioning the Singularity is going to convince me that the sky is blue.
Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible. -- Lawrence of Arabia
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby sunny » Sat May 08, 2010 3:35 pm

Personally, I'm more worried about Dick Cheney and Haliburton herding us into detention camps and feeding on our blood.
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Re: Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

Postby JackRiddler » Sat May 08, 2010 5:41 pm

Stephen Morgan wrote:
JackRiddler wrote:Dvorsky is a lot more convicing.


No-one mentioning the Singularity is going to convince me that the sky is blue.


The sky changes color throughout the day.

I just ignored the Singularity stuff and note his arguments on Hawking's theses make sense.
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