Telephones Cut Off, Mousavi Arrested, Rafsanjani Resigns

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Postby smiths » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:35 pm

Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president


OK, so you are Ahmadinejad (had to copy and paste that :wink: )
youve bullshitted the election and things are spinning out of control,
i contend that at this point the individual leaker of this info is an arsehole to you but not worth killing cos he's already done the damage and killing him only looks more suspicious,

but say you are Mousavi, youve falsely claimed that the election result was rigged cos Asgari told you so, and now there is to be an investigation,
Asgari has to be eliminated to maintain the story,

if one man really leaked that info (which i doubt), and now he's dead,
i contend that fingers Mousavi as the criminal more than Ahmadinejad,


also, ignoring all other news from this saga,
the fact that the US shutdown all messaging services to Iran apart from the magic Twitter which they interfered to keep open speaks volumes to me,
plus the fact that groups like the Soros linked people were actively educating people how to launch attacks and spread false twitter shit,


no it isnt exactly the same as the Ukraine 5 years ago, nor is the technology and communications system,
my mental worldview is different from five years ago, so is my daily routine and hairstyle, but i am stll the same person,

theres been a lot of coverage of colour revolutions,
why would anyone expect a subtle attack on a country like iran from the outside to look the same as it did five years ago
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Postby JackRiddler » Wed Jun 17, 2009 10:58 pm

.

Yeah, smiths, I'm seeing it your way. If this car crash is an assassination, then it makes more sense as part of a psyops script to stir more shit up, rather than a hit job by Ahmedi's side.

They're the state. They could have just arrested the guy on any pretext and disappeared him for a while, without any kind of fuss. This is what they do.

==

Thing is, the people they've stirred up ... "they" being the assumed architects of the election fraud narrative, probably Rafsanjani/Mousavi's people with connections to a "color revolution" op... Right, the people stirred up by this action really are in the millions and have a legitimate beef with the mullah theocracy and its medieval restrictions and culture police and uniformed bullies enforcing dress and behavior codes and limits on women.

I would be joining these demonstrations no matter what I thought about the election. I wouldn't be thinking, "gee we're the most democratic country in the ME, I should grateful!" I wouldn't be thinking, "hey, the majority support theocratic restrictions on me, so I must accept it." I might not stop to think, "the Americans are totally stirring up this situation to bring a free market nightmare to us, or, failing that, to use as a pretext for bombing and/or starving us." No. I'd be thinking, "bring down the fucking mullahs who stole our joys!"

.
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Postby Sweejak » Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:13 pm

Yeah, smiths, I'm seeing it your way

FWIW, me too. Or, it was a car crash.

I'd be out there because I'm always out there. Well, I did blow off the tea parties because they were hijacked. I wonder how many are out there not for a 'candidate' but rather against the system? We don't know. The whole thing seems hopelessly spun with 'creative chaos' being the goal.
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Postby smiths » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:01 am

yep, i'd be out there too, knowing full well that the US was fiddling with my country

and yes, maybe it was just a car crash, ha ha
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Postby Alfred Joe's Boy » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:06 am

Proof: Israeli Effort to Destabilize Iran Via Twitter:
Right-wing Israeli interests are engaged in an all out Twitter attack with hopes of delegitimizing the Iranian election and causing political instability within Iran.
Anyone using Twitter over the past few days knows that the topic of the Iranian election has been the most popular. Thousands of tweets and retweets alleging that the election was a fraud, calling for protests in Iran, and even urging followers hack various Iranian news websites (which they did successfully). The Twitter popularity caught the eye of various blogs such as Mashable and TechCrunch and even made its way to mainstream news media sites.

Were these legitimate Iranian people or the works of a propaganda machine? I became curious and decided to investigate the origins of the information. In doing so, I narrowed it down to a handful of people who have accounted for 30,000 Iran related tweets in the past few days. Each of them had some striking similarities -

1. They each created their twitter accounts on Saturday June 13th.
2. Each had extremely high number of Tweets since creating their profiles.
3. "IranElection" was each of their most popular keyword
4. With some very small exceptions, each were posting in ENGLISH.
5. Half of them had the exact same profile photo
6. Each had thousands of followers, with only a few friends. Most of their friends were EACH OTHER.

Why were these tweets in English? Why were all of these profiles OBSESSED with Iran? It became obvious that this was the work of a team of people with an interest in destabilizing Iran. The profiles are phonies and were created with the sole intention of destabilizing Iran and effecting public opinion as to the legitimacy of Iran's election.

I narrowed the spammers down to three of the most persistent - @StopAhmadi @IranRiggedElect @Change_For_Iran

I decided to do a google search for 2 of the 3 - @StopAhmadi and @IranRiggedElect. The first page to come up was JPost (Jerusalem Post) which is a right wing newspaper pro-Israeli newspaper.

JPost actually ran a story about 3 people "who joined the social network mere hours ago have already amassed thousands of followers." Why would a news organization post a story about 3 people who JUST JOINED TWITTER hours earlier? Is that newsworthy? Jpost was the first (and only to my knowledge) major news source that mentioned these 3 spammers.
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Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:07 am

.

for the moment we don't even know if there was a car crash - who was involved - if it's the same guy - if he really was the source of the whatever... etc. Tomorrow they'll have to report some details on this.

.
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Postby Sweejak » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:19 am

and yes, maybe it was just a car crash, ha ha


Ok, a meteor.
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Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:54 am

Here's a story about what sounds like old-fashioned ballot fraud by the pro-Ahmedinejad machines. About the most believable allegation that's come down the pike.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/j ... on-rigging

guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 17 June 2009 16.12 BST

Iran election turnouts exceeded 100% in 30 towns, website reports

At least 200 polling stations across Iran had participation rates of 95% or above, say sources of centrist Auyandeh site

(Iranian clerics check candidates' list before voting at the shrine of Hazrat-e Massoumeh, granddaughter of Muhammad in the city of Qom. Photograph: Damir Sagoli/Reuters)

Turnouts of more than 100% were recorded in at least 30 Iranian towns in last week's disputed presidential election, opposition sources have claimed.

In the most specific allegations of rigging yet to emerge, the centrist Ayandeh website – which stayed neutral during the campaign – reported that 26 provinces across the country showed participation figures so high they were either hitherto unheard of in democratic elections or in excess of the number of registered electors.

Taft, a town in the central province of Yazd, had a turnout of 141%, the site said, quoting an unnamed "political expert". Kouhrang, in Chahar Mahaal Bakhtiari province, recorded a 132% turnout while Chadegan, in Isfahan province, had 120%.

Ayandeh's source said at least 200 polling stations across Iran recorded participation rates of 95% or above. "This is generally considered scientifically impossible because out of every given cohort of 20 voters, there will be at least one who is either ill, out of the country, has recently died or is unable to participate for some other reasons," the source said. "It is also unprecedented in the history of Iran and all other democratic countries."

The claims are impossible to verify, but they are consistent with comments made by a former Iranian interior minister, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who said on Tuesday that 70 polling stations returned more completed ballot papers than the number of locally eligible voters.

Supporters of the defeated reformist candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, have complained that their campaigns' inspectors were refused access to or ejected from polling centres on election day.

Abbas Abdi, a Karoubi supporter who was among the radical students who took over the US embassy in Tehran in 1979, said some polling stations had run out of ballot papers as early as 10.30am – even though it is standard procedure to issue each voting centre with more ballots than the number of voters.

After polling times were extended beyond the original 6pm closing time, other stations refused to provide ballot papers for fear that participation would exceed the number of voters on the register, Abdi told Radio Zamaaneh, a Farsi-language station based in the Netherlands.
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Postby smiths » Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:57 am

i saw a photo of his demise,
and i would swear that it was controlled automobile demolition or CAD for short
telltale signs include thermite in the tail pipe, etc etc


(sorry if anyone is offended by my slightly diversionary wicked humour)
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Postby praeclarus » Thu Jun 18, 2009 1:44 am

JackRiddler wrote:
praeclarus wrote:
JackRiddler wrote:.
Wow, I am so out of my depth on this one. Clueless.
...
3) There will or will not be an uprising in Tehran...


Yep. Couldn't agree with you more.


Enlighten me, asshole.


I don't think I can help you. You seem to have the
art of gibberish down pat. That being said, I predict
that you will or will not hurl another epithet.

Pip pip.
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Postby smiths » Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:27 am

heres a gem

Granaz Moussavi - Iran protest outnumbers 1979 revolution: filmmaker

Granaz Moussavi vividly recalls march of people that undermined the Shah's regime.

... The Adelaide-based filmmaker and poet has returned home to vote in Iran's controversial elections, only to find herself caught up in the biggest tumult the country has seen since 1979.

She flew in on the night of the poll and voted at Tehran airport. It was still relatively calm then, before the Basij – President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's volunteer militia – began zooming round the city on motorbikes, brutalising protesters.

Since then she has stayed with her family, watching events as they unfold. While mobile phone coverage is all but non-existent, and internet access is strictly limited, people in Tehran are getting most details of events via word of mouth.

"We are all out in the city day and night, just driving up and down even into the middle of the demonstrations," she said. "I haven't seen any of these deaths or terrible injuries, but I have heard that number (seven deaths), in fact I'm hearing it may be even more numbers (of fatalities).

"It doesn't matter where you go, whether it's buying a paper or buying tickets at the travel agent, you hear of people being killed or heavily injured. There's obviously a lot of people hurt."

http://www.theage.com.au/world/iran-pro ... -cj1g.html


so i left out the first paragraph right, because this filmaker who says that she recalls the 1979 uprising vividly and this is much bigger was ...

5 years old at the time


straight from a horses orifice, you pick which one
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Postby AlicetheKurious » Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:28 am

JackRiddler wrote:.Right, the people stirred up by this action really are in the millions and have a legitimate beef with the mullah theocracy and its medieval restrictions and culture police and uniformed bullies enforcing dress and behavior codes and limits on women.

I would be joining these demonstrations no matter what I thought about the election. I wouldn't be thinking, "gee we're the most democratic country in the ME, I should grateful!" I wouldn't be thinking, "hey, the majority support theocratic restrictions on me, so I must accept it." I might not stop to think, "the Americans are totally stirring up this situation to bring a free market nightmare to us, or, failing that, to use as a pretext for bombing and/or starving us." No. I'd be thinking, "bring down the fucking mullahs who stole our joys!"

.


This jumped out at me, because I think we naturally do a lot of projecting and assume that other people must feel the same way we do about, say, dress restrictions on women. It's understandable, but not always a reliable guide to how other people feel. I have good friends with whom I share many things, with the exception of their, to me, inexplicable attachment to their head-coverings. There are many women who would not hesitate to die rather than appear bare-headed in public. I don't get it either, though I've repeatedly asked why and been readily answered. The answers simply don't compute, giving me no option but to say, "to each his own" and "live and let live".

By a pure coincidence, I just finished reading an absolutely fascinating book entitled A Daughter of Persia, by Sattareh Farman Farmaian, an autobiography with truly epic scope. Because the author comes from a highly politicized family (just as one example, her first cousin was Mossadegh), and because her experiences literally span Iran's evolution from the time before Reza Khan right up until the 1979 revolution, it's an incredible insider's view of Iran from a woman's perspective. Reading it, I kept being jolted by the fact that, though I could empathize with so much on a purely human level, clearly the people of Iran are also motivated by a complex number of cultural and historical factors about which I am appallingly ignorant.

What prompted me to say this, is remembering Farmaian's description of how the Shah Reza Pahlavi one day issued an edict that all women must henceforth go bare-headed in public, or risk arrest and prosecution. Her family's history and connections with Mossadegh having made it a target of suspicion by the Shah's regime, it was essential that they be seen to comply with the law, so her father ordered her mother to go ostentatiously for a ride with her head uncovered. Farmaian's sympathetic description of her mother's deep shame, her agony at being so exposed, and her impotent fury at the Shah, were real eye-openers for me, as were so many other incidents described in the book.

Although the author received her degree in the U.S. and has lived in the U.S. since 1979, which made me initially suspicious, her story and her feelings are too complex to ascribe to any specific political agenda. Her voice rings with such sincerity that even when I found myself disagreeing with some of her opinions, I never doubted they were hers. Besides, I was too busy being blown away by her fascinating portrayal of a very complicated country and an even more complicated people, to cling to my own agenda.

I think we make too many glib assumptions about how Iranian people feel, and what Iranian people really want. Iran is a huge country, very diverse and multi-faceted, yet overwhelmingly united by certain bedrock convictions, their religious faith being one, and their deep aversion to corrupt, wealthy self-styled 'saviours' with any link to the Western powers that have done so much over the past century to earn the Iranian people's deep enmity. Apparently, Ahmadinejad effectively blew Mousavi away in the televised debates, pointing out his corruption and the danger he represents to Iran's hard-won independence, issues that cut very close to the bone for most Iranians. That's why I believe that Mousavi could not have won, and that Ahmadinejad won, fair and square.

Of course, we'll just have to ride this out and wait until further developments allow us to identify all the players and place these events within a bigger picture. If Iran's modern history teaches us one thing, it's that there is one.
"If you're not careful the newspapers will have you hating the oppressed and loving the people doing the oppressing." - Malcolm X
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Postby Ben D » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:43 am

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF19Ak02.html

Mousavi states his case

19th June, 2009.

By Kaveh L Afrasiabi

Mir Hossein Mousavi, the reformist candidate challenging Iran's authorities on the result of last week's presidential elections, is a masterful tactician who wants to overturn the re-election of his rival, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, with allegations of a massive conspiracy that he claims cheated him and millions of his supporters.

These supporters, identifiable by the color green they have adopted, have taken to the streets in the tens of thousands and on Thursday were to stage a "day of mourning" for what they say is a lost election. This follows a "silent" march through the streets of the capital on Wednesday. To date, at least 10 people - some Iranian sources say 32 - have been killed in clashes.

Mousavi has lodged an official complaint with the powerful 12-member Guardians Council, which has ordered a partial recount of the vote. The complaint's main flaw is that it passes improper or questionable pre-election conduct as something else, that is, as evidence of voting fraud.

The protest, which seeks fresh elections, is short on specifics and long on extraneous, election-unrelated complaints. The first two items relate to the televised debates that were held between the candidates, rather than anything germane to the vote count.

There is also some innuendo, such as a claim that Ahmadinejad used state-owned means of transportation to campaign around the country, overlooking that there is nothing unusual about incumbent leaders using the resources at their disposal for election purposes. All previous presidents, including the reformist Mohammad Khatami, who is a main supporter of Mousavi, did the same.

Another complaint by Mousavi is that Ahmadinejad had disproportionate access to the state-controlled media. This has indeed been a bad habit in the 30-year history of the Islamic Republic, but perhaps less so this year because for the first time there were television debates, six of them, which allowed Mousavi and the other challengers free space to present their points of view.

With respect to alleged specific irregularities, the complaint cites a shortage of election forms that in some places caused a "few hours delay". This is something to complain about, but it hardly amounts to fraud, especially as voter turnout was a record high of 85% of the eligible 46 million voters. (Ahmadinejad was credited with 64% of the vote.)

Mousavi complains that in some areas the votes cast were higher than the number of registered voters. But he fails to add that some of those areas, such as Yazd, were places where he received more votes that Ahmadinejad.

Furthermore, Mousavi complains that some of his monitors were not accredited by the Interior Ministry and therefore he was unable to independently monitor the elections. However, several thousand monitors representing the various candidates were accredited and that included hundreds of Mousavi's eyes and ears.

They should have documented any irregularities that, per the guidelines, should have been appended to his complaint. Nothing is appended to Mousavi's two-page complaint, however. He does allude to some 80 letters that he had previously sent to the Interior Ministry, without either appending those letters or restating their content.

Finally, item eight of the complaint cites Ahmadinejad's recourse to the support given by various members of Iran's armed forces, as well as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's brief campaigning on Ahmadinejad's behalf. These are legitimate complaints that necessitate serious scrutiny since by law such state individuals are forbidden to take sides. It should be noted that Mousavi can be accused of the same irregularity as his headquarters had a division devoted to the armed forces.

Given the thin evidence presented by Mousavi, there can be little chance of an annulment of the result.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press)
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Postby American Dream » Thu Jun 18, 2009 1:17 pm

http://www.truthout.org/061809J

Iran: Who's Diddling Democracy?
Thursday 18 June 2009
by: Steve Weissman, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Image
This photo of a lifeless body - allegedly a protester killed by government forces - on the street in Tehran was posted on Twitter. (Photo: Twitter)

Watching the protesters in Tehran, many Americans feel a strong sense of empathy, exhilaration and hope. I strongly share those feelings, especially since I know firsthand the danger the protesters face from government thugs on motorcycles, provocateurs and the secret police. But none of this should blind us to the likelihood that our own government is dangerously meddling in Iran's internal affairs and playing with the lives of those protesters.

Back in 2007, ABC News reported that President George W. Bush had signed a secret "Presidential finding" authorizing the CIA to mount covert "black" operations to destabilize the Iranian government. According to current and former intelligence officials, these operations included "a coordinated campaign of propaganda broadcasts, placement of negative newspaper articles, and the manipulation of Iran's currency and international banking transactions."

In the language of spookery, this was an updated version of the destabilization campaign that the CIA had earlier used to overthrow the progressive government of Salvador Allende in Chile.

The plan had the strong backing of Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Adviser Steve Hadley and Deputy National Security Adviser Elliott Abrams. As ABC noted, Abrams had earlier pled guilty to withholding information from Congress about efforts to destabilize the Sandinista government in Nicaragua during the Iran-contra affair of the 1980s.

ABC News also reported that American and Pakistani intelligence were backing a separatist militia of militant Sunni tribesmen from the non-Persian Baluchi region of Iran. The group - Jundallah (Soldiers of God) - conducted deadly raids into Iran from bases in Pakistan's Baluchistan Province. Funding for this was reportedly funneled through Iranian exiles with connections in Europe and the Gulf States.

US officials denied any "direct funding" of Jundallah, but admitted regular contact since 2005 with Jundallah's youthful leader Abd el Malik Regi, who was widely reputed to be involved in heroin trafficking from Afghanistan.

"I think everybody in the region knows that there is a proxy war already afoot with the United States supporting anti-Iranian elements in the region as well as opposition groups within Iran," said Vali Nasr, adjunct senior fellow for Mideast studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"And this covert action is now being escalated by the new US directive, and that can very quickly lead to Iranian retaliation and a cycle of escalation can follow."

The New Yorker's Seymour Hersh subsequently confirmed the story, reporting that the Presidential finding focused on "on undermining Iran's nuclear ambitions and trying to undermine the government through regime change."

He also reported that the Democratic-controlled Congress had approved up to $400 million to fund the destabilization campaign. "The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations," said Hersh.

"The irony is that we're once again working with Sunni fundamentalists, just as we did in Afghanistan in the nineteen-eighties," he wrote. "Ramzi Yousef, who was convicted for his role in the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who is considered one of the leading planners of the September 11th attacks, are Baluchi Sunni fundamentalists."

Flash forward to the new presidency of Barack Obama. Did he and his CIA chief Leon Panetta cancel the destabilization program? Not that I can find. The tea leaves are murky, but they suggest that, so far at least, Team Obama remains wedded to the Bush-Cheney-Abrams destabilization of Iran.

The issue came to a head in the last few weeks. Obama wanted to bring the Iranian regime to the table, and the administration knew through scholars like Selig Harrison that the ayatollahs wanted a signal that the new president would stop supporting terrorists within Iran. At the end of May, the chance to send that signal came when Jundallah claimed credit for a suicide bombing that killed 25 people and injured as many as 125 others at a prominent Shiite mosque in the southeastern city of Zahedan.

Both the White House and State Department immediately denounced the bombing and denied any involvement in what Obama's spokesman Robert Gibbs explicitly called "recent terrorist attacks inside Iran."

Several news articles then reported that the administration was considering placing Jundallah on the State's Department's list of terrorist organizations, which would have signaled a major shift in policy. But, suddenly, the administration backed away from making the terrorist designation or from otherwise indicating that it would stop the destabilization campaign.

To the contrary, in the build-up to the Iranian election, Washington sharpened its propaganda efforts. According to Ken Timmerman, the executive director of the right-wing Foundation for Democracy in Iran, the Persian Service of Voice of America (VOA) clearly sided with the anti-Ahmadinejad candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi against those dissident groups who wanted to boycott the election entirely, the position Timmerman favored.

Timmerman claims that VOA refused to give the boycotters airtime while giving extensive coverage to a secret fatwa that the Mousavi campaign claim to have discovered, a fatwa that encouraged bureaucrats at the Interior Ministry to do "whatever it takes" to get Ahmadinejad elected.

Timmerman also saw the branding of Mousavi's "green revolution" as evidence that the US government was using its National Endowment for Democracy to support the former prime minister.

"The National Endowment for Democracy has spent millions of dollars during the past decade promoting 'color' revolutions in places such as Ukraine and Serbia, training political workers in modern communications and organizational techniques," Timmerman wrote on the right-wing newsmax.com.

"Some of that money appears to have made it into the hands of pro-Mousavi groups, who have ties to non-governmental organizations outside Iran that the National Endowment for Democracy funds."

Please note that this comes from a very involved right-wing critic who personally knows the expatriate Iranian community. It is impossible to know how much government money went to these groups, since Congress has purposely exempted the National Endowment for Democracy from having to make public how it spends taxpayer money. Clearly, Congress should begin to ask some tough questions about funding for Mousavi's "green revolution" before any more Iranian protesters are killed.

One other clue is worth considering. The State Department somehow knew that the social-networking site Twitter had intended to close down for maintenance earlier this week during what would have been morning in Tehran. So, as The Washington Post put it, the State Department asked Twitter to delay the scheduled maintenance "to avoid disrupting communications among tech-savvy Iranian citizens as they took to the streets to protest Friday's re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

At first glance, those of us deeply involved in the new technology thought this was great, a serious affirmation of our own importance. But, to the ayatollahs, the State Department's intervention sent a clear signal that the Obama administration was siding with Mousavi's protesters. Ahmadinejad's government, militia and police had all the internal communications they needed. Only the protesters stood to benefit.

Even more compelling, the benefit went to a particular group - those among the protesters who speak English and particularly those Iranian-Americans working with the National Endowment for Democracy. According to news reports, Twitter does not accept input in Farsi.

Does my reading of the tea leaves prove conclusively that the Obama administration was hell-bent on regime change? Not conclusively, but all the evidence points in that direction, especially now that many extremely reputable scholars are suggesting that Ahmadinejad probably did win more than a majority of the votes cast.

Ahmadinejad is a very bad guy, as I have recently written elsewhere. But our opposition to him does not justify meddling in another country's election while proclaiming "universal democratic values."

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

From the Rooftops of Tehran, Cries of Protest Stir a Student
[b]Wednesday 17 June 2009
by: Devorah Lauter | Visit article original @ The Los Angeles Times[/b
]

A young woman who only a month ago had been reluctant to speak out about politics now realizes she is among "millions" who share her views. "We are sure that we are not a minority. They are."

Paris - Every night at 9, Golaleh goes to the top of her five-story apartment in northern Tehran, where she has a view of the whole city.

"It's like a date," she said of the nightly rendezvous, because like clockwork voices of opposition protesters start calling out from rooftops in all directions.

God is great, he will shout. Then hundreds respond.

Their cries remain faceless. People stay hidden in the dark so that police cannot track them. "But we can distinguish between them [the voices]: There are men, women and even children" who chant until 10 p.m., Golaleh said in a telephone interview Wednesday. Her last name has been withheld for her protection.

Protesting off the streets and under the cover of night is one way to avoid police violence while "letting out our energy together," said Golaleh, a 31-year-old book translator studying English literature at Al Zahra University in Tehran.

Golaleh is helping write and gather signatures for a statement by students at Al Zahra in support of Zahra Rahnavard, the school's former director and the wife of opposition leader and presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

When interviewed during a visit to Paris in May, Golaleh had said she preferred not to meddle with politics. She knew women who provoked the regime's "morality" police by wearing outlandish makeup, painting their nails bright colors, or wearing head scarves far back enough to unveil a few too many rebellious curls -- all of which could potentially land a woman in jail.

But not Golaleh. She kept her tomboy short hair and bangs well covered, her big eyes free of heavy makeup.

Despite suffering under the regime's strict behavioral codes and watching books she had spent months translating into Persian barred from publication because a line didn't meet with state approval, she said she preferred not to get involved with risky activism. "I leave those protests to the others," she had explained in May.

Much of that has changed since last week's election, which saw President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared the victor over Mousavi despite charges of vote fraud.

"Now I'm not afraid anymore," said Golaleh, who spoke in English and admitted that only a few weeks ago she would never have held such a conversation over the telephone, for fear of being overheard by authorities.

"When I was in Azadi [Freedom] Square, I got assured that I'm not alone. I saw millions and millions of people with myself," she said. "Before that I thought that, OK, we're not more than 100,000. We're a minority of people. But now, when I hear that in Ahvaz, in Tabriz, in Shiraz, in the very big cities of Iran they are protesting, and when you see that -- they call it a cyber revolution -- when I see my friends that are thinking in the same way, I think: OK, I won't let them be alone also. Now we are sure that we are not a minority. They are."

"I think these are the last days of the regime," she added, "because most of the religious people, most of the fans of the regime, now they are their enemies. They have changed."

For now, she said, "we are watching Mousavi for the next step."

-------
"If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything."
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:42 pm

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article22862.htm

Experts See No ‘Smoking Gun’ for Iran Election Fraud

By Andrew Beatty, Agence France-Presse

June 18, 2009 "AFP" -- WASHINGTON -- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election victory is disbelieved by hundreds of thousands of Iranians who have poured onto Tehran's streets in protest, but experts say hard evidence of vote rigging is elusive.

Since the government handed the incumbent president a landslide win over opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi hours after Friday's vote, Tehran has been convulsed by protests unseen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Outside Iran, debate over the election result is split down largely political lines.

Former US presidential candidate John McCain, a conservative, has insisted he is "sure" the elections in Iran were rigged. With equal ferocity leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has lambasted "foreign efforts" to discredit an "historic" election.

But with few independent observers on hand to witness the vote, analysts warn there is little evidence of a smoking gun of electoral fraud, or evidence that would affirm a fair vote.

Statisticians, pollsters and Iran experts have been poring over the results for hints of vote-rigging, or the possibility that the controversial president is backed by around 63% of voters.

Ken Ballen, president of the Washington-based Terror Free Future think tank, three weeks ago conducted a rare country-wide poll by phone of 1,001 people to gauge Iranians' voting intentions.

According to Mr. Ballen it is not obvious from that poll that the results of the election were rigged. "At that time Mr. Ahmadinejad was ahead by two to one. Is it plausible that he won the election? Yes."

The survey showed that 34% of Iranians intended to vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad. Mr. Mousavi was the choice of just 14% of respondents.

But Mr. Ballen cautioned against concluding that the vote was fair.

The poll result fell far short of Mr. Ahmadinejad's margin of victory, and 27% of Iranians surveyed were still undecided at the time the survey was taken. "Anything could have changed," Mr. Ballen said.

Mr. Mousavi supporters point to the amazingly quick tallying of millions of hand-counted ballots and the Mr. Ahmadinejad's surprise win in Mr. Mousavi's home town, Tabriz, as proof positive of foul play.

Mr. Mousavi is from Iran's Azeri minority, so voters in his native region in East Azerbaijan province were expected to back him to the hilt, according to Ali Alfoneh, an Iran expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

Instead official results showed Mr. Ahmadinejad won the town and Mr. Mousavi's tally across the province was a modest 42%.

But Mr. Ballen's poll indicated only 16% of Azeri Iranians would vote for Mr. Mousavi, against 31% of Azeris who claimed they would vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Walter Mebane, a University of Michigan professor, has been examining the election results using statistical and computational tools to detect fraud, a method he describes as "election forensics."

Comparing 366 district results with those from the 2005 elections, Mr. Mebane concluded that the "substantial core" of local results were in line with the basic statistical trends.

"In 2009 Mr. Ahmadinejad tended to do best in towns where his support in 2005 was highest, and he tended to do worst in towns were turnout surged the most."

But Mr. Mebane said data released by the Iranian authorities was not detailed enough to say whether the vote was rigged or not.

"The vote counts I see recorded here do connect to reality to some extent, but in no way do I think that any of this analysis rules out the possibility of manipulation," he told AFP.

Mr. Mebane pointed out that trends would still ring true if the government simply inflated Mr. Ahmadinejad's vote by a fixed percentage, perhaps offsetting it against deflated opposition tallies.

With half a million people on the streets, proof of such a falsification could spell the difference between a call for justice and a revolution, according to Mr. Alfoneh.

"If the system totally fails to provide documentation that this is not fraud, that is something that is going to radicalize the protesters," Mr. Alfoneh said.
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