Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Moderators: Elvis, DrVolin, Jeff

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby §ê¢rꆧ » Tue May 05, 2020 6:58 am

I thought this was a nice roundup of the science (as of 04/29/20) with just enough granularity and technical detail to make it interesting but not overwhelmingly dense and jargon-laden.

<Original Source, worth it for the links @ Quanta Magazine>

What Other Coronaviruses Tell Us About SARS-CoV-2

By Tara C Smith

COVID-19 and the virus that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, have focused the public’s attention on coronaviruses like never before. But medical researchers have more than half a century of experience with this family of viruses — by the time they identified the first human version in 1965, multiple animal coronaviruses were already known to exist. Since then, dozens of additional coronaviruses have been discovered in wildlife, livestock and humans.

We now know of four that cause the common cold: HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1. (HCoV stands for “human coronavirus.” A number of other human strains were also reported in the 1960s, but they were lost and not studied in detail.) Since 2003, we have identified more serious human coronaviruses, which have caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and now COVID-19.

New papers on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 are coming out at an unprecedented rate, but there’s still a lot we don’t know. Luckily, our extensive history with coronaviruses can help us fill in the gaps. Of course, we must be careful not to overextrapolate. For example, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, the viruses that cause MERS and SARS, do not seem to spread easily before the development of symptoms, while SARS-CoV-2 appears to be transmissible at least two days prior. (This may be due to the primary location where the viruses replicate — in the more exposed upper respiratory tract for SARS-CoV-2, versus the lower respiratory tract for the others — but more research is needed to know for sure.)

Still, the hard-won knowledge we’ve gained from decades of studying related viruses can help us answer some of our biggest questions about this pandemic.

Can a coronavirus really cause gastrointestinal symptoms?

While COVID-19 is primarily a respiratory disease, we’ve seen plenty of reports of individuals with gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea and vomiting. Sometimes these symptoms even replace the more typical coughing and fever. This isn’t too surprising, but it does complicate the situation a bit. As testing is currently limited, would an individual with a mild upset stomach even consider themselves a potential COVID-19 case and self-isolate?

Perhaps we should have better anticipated the complexity of the disease. Prior research demonstrated that gastrointestinal symptoms were also an issue with some SARS patients during the 2003 outbreak. And they’re a hallmark of one of the most important coronaviruses in pigs, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). Other coronaviruses cause similar symptoms in cattle, dogs and cats, but the reasons for tissue preference — which determines which organs are most susceptible — aren’t yet clear.

What about even odder symptoms, such losing the senses of smell and taste?

There’s precedent for that too. Some evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 can target tissue in the central nervous system, leading to temporary loss of some senses, as well as more serious potential consequences, including neurological impairment. In animal models of SARS-CoV and other coronavirus infections, investigators showed that the virus could enter the brain via the olfactory bulb, which processes information about odors. This reflects previous studies that have demonstrated the same process in HCoV-OC43 and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV).

A recent study (not yet peer-reviewed) suggests that the interaction between the virus and smell could be complex, because the cellular receptor in human cells that binds SARS-CoV-2, called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), does not actually appear directly on the olfactory sensory neurons. It is present on nearby tissue, however, including vascular pericytes (cells that wrap around blood capillaries). Pericyte infection could alter the sense of smell by causing an inflammatory response that alters how the olfactory neurons function, or it might damage cells and alter any signaling from the sensory neurons to the brain.

This has led to suggestions that a coronavirus infection could lead to other neurological diseases, even after the acute infection resolves. We’ve seen no direct evidence of this, but there is reason to be concerned. Patients with multiple sclerosis and other neurological diseases are more likely than healthy controls to have HCoV-OC43 in their brains, and MHV can cause a demyelinating disease similar to MS in rodents and some nonhuman primates. This suggests that we should monitor recovered individuals in the coming years to see if they’re more likely to develop neurological complications akin to MS.

What will it take to stop this pandemic?

Ultimately, we’ll need a vaccine. Once we can prevent new cases from taking hold, the virus will have fewer places to go, making containment possible. Unfortunately, a safe, working vaccine is still months, and likely years, away.

Until then, we can look to PEDV for another possibility. While that disease, which devastates young piglets, now has various working vaccines in place, this wasn’t always the case. At first, farmers had to use an age-old tactic for controlling the spread of the virus: autogenous vaccines. These vaccines are produced on-site rather than by large companies, and they’re based on the particular strain of bacteria or virus that circulates there. Farmers or veterinarians would obtain samples of PEDV from pigs that had succumbed to the infection. They would then feed this tissue, usually taken from the intestine, to sows, who developed immunity to the virus. (They might become ill, but the infection is generally much milder in adult animals.) Antibodies, conferring short-term immunity, would then be passed from the sows to their piglets via the placenta and during nursing, protecting susceptible piglets from the infection.

Clearly, this isn’t a process that humans can easily adapt. But it is similar to a strategy that Sweden is currently attempting: Allow those at lower risk to mingle freely and eventually become infected with the virus; once they recover, a large enough segment of the population should be immune, resulting in herd immunity. In theory, this would protect the most vulnerable (older people and those with certain health conditions) as they self-isolated, while others would become infected and then immune. In practice, however, this strategy, which was rejected in the United Kingdom, is leading to a much higher death rate in Sweden than in other Nordic countries.

Does the amount of virus exposure affect disease severity?

It looks that way.

Many health care workers have become seriously ill with COVID-19, despite being young and healthy. Various reports have suggested it’s because they were exposed to more virus than a typical COVID-19 patient. This is consistent with experimental studies of porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCV). Scientists found pigs that were inoculated with it developed more severe cases than the pigs that caught the disease naturally. This makes logical sense, since the higher the amount of virus infecting you, the harder it is for your body to control its replication and spread.

This only emphasizes the importance of protective measures — masks, gloves, hand washing — for people who face prolonged exposure to the virus.

Is it possible to get COVID-19 twice? Or are we immune once we get it?


Unfortunately, the news here is not good. While catching and successfully fighting off a virus usually results in a natural immunity to it, coronavirus infections do not seem to result in long-term immunity. Individuals could be reinfected when that immunity wanes.

Volunteers experimentally inoculated with HCoV-229E showed a steep decline in antibody response over time, and the majority could be successfully reinfected a year later. Patients infected with SARS-CoV also showed a decline in antibody titers over time. On the animal side, cattle infected with bovine coronavirus (BCoV) — the ancestor of at least one human coronavirus — are susceptible to reinfection and show no long-term immunity.

And some animal coronaviruses are never resolved at all: They become persistent infections. In cats, for example, infection with feline enteric coronavirus may last for months or longer. When this happens, the virus mutates so much that its very nature seems to change. What starts out as a relatively mild gastrointestinal infection eventually causes serious peritonitis (inflammation of the membrane lining the abdominal wall) in some animals. Examining the virus at this point in the infection, researchers found that the mutations had resulted in the emergence of a related virus, feline infectious peritonitis virus — and this one has a higher fatality rate.

Currently, there is no evidence of particular mutations in SARS-CoV-2 that may alter its virulence. But researchers will certainly be investigating individuals who test positive again after having one or more negative tests to determine if they have truly been reinfected, or if they have a persistent initial infection that only seemed to go away. (It’s also possible the tests may have produced false negatives.)

Could SARS-CoV-2 become endemic among humans and just never go away? What then?

It’s hard to say. There are many potential outcomes here, and they depend on human behavior and ingenuity. If we have a vaccine that significantly reduces the presence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the population, it could limit the virus’s ability to evolve. That would probably be the ideal case, even though we’d need to be on the lookout for outbreaks, as we also have to do with measles, mumps and other vaccine-preventable infections. But if we can’t contain the virus and end up constantly exposed to it, we can use our experiences with other coronaviruses to imagine some possibilities.

One outcome: The disease could become milder with time. This may have happened with HCoV-OC43, which appears to have diverged from its ancestral virus BCoV around 1890, when it jumped from cattle to humans. Coincidentally, that was also the year of a nasty influenza epidemic — though it may very well have been a coronavirus outbreak, like today’s.

The increased mildness of HCoV-OC43 may have been facilitated in part by the deletion of 290 base pairs of the virus’s RNA near the spike gene, which allows a virus to penetrate and infect its host’s cells. This deletion likely hindered its ability to bind effectively, making it harder to produce severe infections. Such evolution by deletion is actually a common feature of these viruses. A deletion of part of the spike gene and several other changes in a second gene led to the emergence of PRCV from an ancestral swine gastroenteritis virus. These mutations seem to have changed the virus’s tissue preference, transforming it from a deadly enteric (intestinal) pathogen to a milder respiratory one. Could SARS-CoV-2 undergo a similar change in binding sites in the body that could affect its tissue preferences or lead to a milder presentation? Time will tell, but it does seem to be a habit of coronaviruses.

Another possible outcome if SARS-CoV-2 never goes away: recombination, where the virus mixes and matches its genetic material with those of other circulating coronaviruses. These events are frequent, and they can result in the emergence of entirely new viruses. For example, a novel strain of canine respiratory coronavirus identified in 2017 was likely a recombinant of existing canine and bovine coronaviruses. Recombination of SARS-CoV-2 with the other human coronaviruses, or even animal coronaviruses, may be possible, but the outcome of such an event — good, bad or in between — is almost impossible to predict in advance. We’ll simply have to keep monitoring the virus and trust in our resourcefulness to deal with whatever comes next.

<Original Source, worth it for the links @ Quanta Magazine>

youtube video
User avatar
§ê¢rꆧ
 
Posts: 1197
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:12 pm
Location: Region X
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Grizzly » Tue May 05, 2020 7:46 pm

I’ve mentioned early in this thread about this...

http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=41979&p=686478#p686478


Palantir’s NHS data project “may outlive coronavirus crisis”
https://tech.newstatesman.com/coronavirus/palantir-covid19-datastore-coronavirus
“The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it.”

― Joseph mengele
User avatar
Grizzly
 
Posts: 4908
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:15 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue May 05, 2020 9:28 pm

(This may be due to the primary location where the viruses replicate — in the more exposed upper respiratory tract for SARS-CoV-2, versus the lower respiratory tract for the others — but more research is needed to know for sure.)


Hello, §ê¢rꆧ! (still the best screen name ever!) This was the first report I've read that mentioned the brain as a focus of attack. I haven't read much research since my sister's passing, but what I have learned about his virus I'll share. It seems to selectively chose where to strike, any vital organ, the heart, liver, spleen, the lungs, the intestines and perhaps oddest of all, toes. The oximeter is essential in determining blood oxygen saturation level. (You may have read of the recent inventor/doctor's passing.) It's been learned that many, if not all of those admitted had very low blood oxygen levels, 50%, and yet, did not suffer severe breathing difficulty.

When the lungs are the focus, the aveoli rupture and bleed, and the clotting is what was seen in early x-rays of patient's lungs and described as "glass-like."

I'm afraid this virus will be with us for at least a few years. It mutates slightly every time someone is infected, as is the nature of viruses.

Here are a few reports:

COVID-19 PM2.5
A national study on long-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States

https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm/home Plus:
https://github.com/wxwx1993/PM_COVID

Identification of Coronavirus Isolated from a Patient in Korea with COVID-19
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7045880/

Norton ~ https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/08/were-short-hospital-beds-because-washington-let-too-many-hospitals-merge/

We’re short on hospital beds because Washington let too many hospitals merge
Consolidation has contributed to a shortage of hospital beds, and the Federal Trade Commission has done nothing about it.
User avatar
Iamwhomiam
 
Posts: 6572
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:47 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue May 05, 2020 9:55 pm

Curious: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN22G295

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) - Tanzania has suspended the head of its national health laboratory in charge of testing for the coronavirus and ordered an investigation, a day after President John Magufuli questioned the tests’ accuracy.

Magufuli said on Sunday the imported test kits were faulty as they had returned positive results on a goat and a pawpaw — among several non-human samples submitted for testing, with technicians left deliberately unaware of their origins.

He did not say where the kits had been imported from or why the authorities had been suspicious of the results.


Catherine Sungura, acting head of communications at the ministry of health, said in a statement on Monday the director of the laboratory and its quality assurance manager had been immediately suspended “to pave way for the investigation”.

Sungura said a 10-person committee had been formed to investigate the laboratory’s operations, including its process of collecting and testing samples.

On Sunday, Magufuli also fired the head of the government Medical Stores Department, which is in charge of distributing medical supplies and equipment to government hospitals, but gave no reason.

As of Monday, Tanzania had recorded 480 cases of COVID-19 and 18 deaths, according to a Reuters tally based on government and World Health Organization data.

Unlike most other African countries, Tanzania sometimes goes for days without offering updates, with the last bulletin on cases on Wednesday.

COVID-19 infections and fatalities reported across Africa have been relatively low compared with the United States, parts of Asia and Europe. But Africa also has extremely low levels of testing, with rates of only around 500 per million people.

In neighbouring Kenya, a senate body sought an explanation from the Health Ministry over the circumstances leading to the demotion of the head of the rapid response and team director in charge of the centre for virus research at the state-run Kenya Medical Research Institute.

“In relation to the above, the committee observes that the timing of the dismissal is wrong as it is likely to have a significant impact on the morale and motivation of the various staff that were working under him,” the Senate Ad Hoc Committee on the COVID-19 situation in Kenya said in a report on April 28.
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10896
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue May 05, 2020 11:36 pm

.
Nothing to see here. Move along

https://www.phillyvoice.com/pennsylvani ... r-suicide/


coronavirus researcher found dead in apparent murder-suicide

Dr. Bing Liu was studying the cellular mechanisms underlying SARS-CoV-2


A molecular biologist at the University of Pittsburgh was found dead last weekend in what police believe was a murder-suicide, according to multiple reports.

Dr. Bing Liu, 37, was fatally shot Saturday at his townhome in Elm Court, about 35 miles north of Pittsburgh. A second man, identified as 46-year-old Hao Gu, was found dead in his vehicle from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, Action News 4 in Pittsburgh reported.

Police said the men knew one another, but didn't reveal a possible motive behind the incident.

User avatar
Belligerent Savant
 
Posts: 5573
Joined: Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:58 pm
Location: North Atlantic.
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby §ê¢rꆧ » Wed May 06, 2020 1:02 am

Belligerent Savant » Tue May 05, 2020 10:36 pm wrote:.
Nothing to see here. Move along

https://www.phillyvoice.com/pennsylvani ... r-suicide/


coronavirus researcher found dead in apparent murder-suicide

Dr. Bing Liu was studying the cellular mechanisms underlying SARS-CoV-2


<...>
Liu was an assistant research professor in the School of Medicine's department of computational and systems biology.
<...>




Wasn't James Taylor (mentioned upthread a few pages) who died recently a big star in the systems biology world? Has there been any statement anywhere about James Taylor's cause of death?

Edit: yes, he was a heavy hitting computational biologist/bioinformatics... from his web page:

Our lab's research is in genome informatics, the use of computational and statistical approaches to understand genomes. Our ultimate goal is to achieve a complete understanding of the structure and function of genomes. Specifically, how information is encoded in genomes and how this encoding allows for precise reproducible biological processes and developmental programs, yet is harnessed by evolution to generate remarkable diversity. We work toward this goal both through the study of genome function and evolution, and through the development of tools that support the broader genomics community. Our work can be divided into two main areas.
https://taylorlab.org/research/

Taylor has almost 35k citations for his papers! https://scholar.google.com/citations?us ... EsAAAAJ&hl
User avatar
§ê¢rꆧ
 
Posts: 1197
Joined: Sun Sep 23, 2007 4:12 pm
Location: Region X
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby cptmarginal » Wed May 06, 2020 11:21 am

cptmarginal
 
Posts: 2741
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2007 8:32 pm
Location: Gordita Beach
Blog: View Blog (0)

fire and rain

Postby annie aronburg » Wed May 06, 2020 1:31 pm

§ê¢rꆧ » Wed May 06, 2020 12:02 am wrote:
Belligerent Savant » Tue May 05, 2020 10:36 pm wrote:.
Nothing to see here. Move along

https://www.phillyvoice.com/pennsylvani ... r-suicide/


coronavirus researcher found dead in apparent murder-suicide

Dr. Bing Liu was studying the cellular mechanisms underlying SARS-CoV-2


<...>
Liu was an assistant research professor in the School of Medicine's department of computational and systems biology.
<...>




Wasn't James Taylor (mentioned upthread a few pages) who died recently a big star in the systems biology world? Has there been any statement anywhere about James Taylor's cause of death?

Edit: yes, he was a heavy hitting computational biologist/bioinformatics... from his web page:

Our lab's research is in genome informatics, the use of computational and statistical approaches to understand genomes. Our ultimate goal is to achieve a complete understanding of the structure and function of genomes. Specifically, how information is encoded in genomes and how this encoding allows for precise reproducible biological processes and developmental programs, yet is harnessed by evolution to generate remarkable diversity. We work toward this goal both through the study of genome function and evolution, and through the development of tools that support the broader genomics community. Our work can be divided into two main areas.
https://taylorlab.org/research/

Taylor has almost 35k citations for his papers! https://scholar.google.com/citations?us ... EsAAAAJ&hl


Just crack-potting around: https://beverlytran.blogspot.com/2020/0 ... ry-of.html
"O Oysters," said the Carpenter,
"You've had a pleasant run!
Shall we be trotting home again?'
But answer came there none--
And this was scarcely odd, because
They'd eaten every one.
User avatar
annie aronburg
 
Posts: 1406
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:57 pm
Location: Smokanagan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Elvis » Wed May 06, 2020 5:56 pm

Love those "Honest Government Ads" — thanks!
“The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.” ― Joan Robinson
User avatar
Elvis
 
Posts: 7562
Joined: Fri Apr 11, 2008 7:24 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby undead » Wed May 06, 2020 8:03 pm

The title should really say it "has been" more contagious, considering that Chinese scientists reported very many mutations in Wuhan alone. Good luck creating a vaccine. It will have to be a yearly updated cocktail like the flu shots. Yum.

The coronavirus has mutated and appears to be more contagious now, new study finds

Published Tue, May 5 20201:16 PM EDTUpdated Wed, May 6 202012:37 PM EDT

The coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, over four months ago has since mutated and the new, dominant strain spreading across the U.S. appears to be even more contagious, according to a new study.

The new strain began spreading in Europe in early February before migrating to other parts of the world, including the United States and Canada, becoming the dominant form of the virus across the globe by the end of March, researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory wrote in a 33-page report published Thursday on BioRxiv.

If the coronavirus doesn’t subside in the summer like the seasonal flu, it could mutate further and potentially limit the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccines being developed by scientists around the world, the researchers warned. Some vaccine researchers have been using the virus’s genetic sequences isolated by health authorities early in the outbreak.

“This is hard news,” Bette Korber, a computational biologist at Los Alamos and lead author of the study, the Los Angeles Times said she wrote on her Facebook page.

“But please don’t only be disheartened by it,” she continued. “Our team at LANL was able to document this mutation and its impact on transmission only because of a massive global effort of clinical people and experimental groups, who make new sequences of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) in their local communities available as quickly as they possibly can.”

The study has yet to be peer-reviewed, but the researchers noted that news of the mutation was of “urgent concern” considering the more than 100 vaccines in the process of being developed to prevent Covid-19.

In early March, researchers in China said they found that two different types of the coronavirus could be causing infections worldwide.

In a study published on March 3, scientists at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus had accounted for roughly 70% of analyzed strains, while 30% had been linked to a less aggressive type. The more aggressive and deadly strain was found to be prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the Chinese city where the virus first emerged.

The Los Alamos researchers, with the help of scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, were able to analyze thousands of coronavirus sequences collected by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza, an organization that promotes the rapid sharing of data from all influenza viruses and the coronavirus.

To date, the researchers have identified 14 mutations.

The mutation impacts the spike protein, a multifunctional mechanism that allows the virus to enter the host.

The research was supported by funding from the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research and Genome Research Limited.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-cor ... finds.html
┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐
User avatar
undead
 
Posts: 997
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:23 am
Location: Doumbekistan
Blog: View Blog (1)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby undead » Wed May 06, 2020 8:09 pm

Flimsy denial/downplaying of above story published in NYTimes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/heal ... ssion.html

For more on epidemic severity denial see: Lyme disease, "post-Lyme disease syndrome"

Please panic, but not too much. Just enough to be herded.
┌∩┐(◕_◕)┌∩┐
User avatar
undead
 
Posts: 997
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 1:23 am
Location: Doumbekistan
Blog: View Blog (1)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby liminalOyster » Wed May 06, 2020 9:02 pm

EVOLVING IDEAS —
We don’t know yet whether a mutation has made SARS-CoV-2 more infectious
A mutation in the virus seems to be getting more common, but we don't know why.
JOHN TIMMER - 5/6/2020, 9:22 AM

Image of gloved hands arranging blood samples.
Enlarge / YOGYAKARTA, INDONESIA - MAY 06: An Indonesian health official wearing a protective suit prepares test kits during a mass rapid test for COVID-19 amid the coronavirus pandemic on May 6, 2020 in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Ulet Ifansasti | Getty Images
102
WITH 59 POSTERS PARTICIPATING, INCLUDING STORY AUTHOR
SHARE ON FACEBOOK
SHARE ON TWITTER
When SARS-CoV-2 made the jump into humans late last year, it was remarkably well adapted to spread among us. But that doesn't mean things couldn't get worse, as the virus will undoubtedly pick up new mutations as its population expands, some of which might make it more dangerous to humans. In fact, a draft paper recently posted online claimed to have evidence that a more infectious strain of SARS-CoV-2 had already evolved.

But the evidence is far from conclusive, and scientists have been taking both the paper and the associated press coverage to task.

The press coverage
FURTHER READING
The preprint problem: Unvetted science is fueling COVID-19 misinformation
The Los Angeles Times had coverage that was typical of the early response to the draft paper, headlining it "Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original." But by Tuesday, the coverage had been roundly criticized by scientists, and awareness of the problems with the paper was gradually increasing. This pushback came from sites dedicated to health news analysis as well as general circulation newspapers. Yet even after these criticisms had been published, new articles were still trumpeting an enhanced infectivity.
All of this was set off by a draft article posted on the bioaRxiv—one with a title that seemed to support the fears highlighted in the worst headlines: "Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2."

The response from scientists has been critical of both the paper's authors (one of whom is in the US and the other in the UK) and of the media coverage the paper has attracted. As far as the media is concerned, the scientists seem to have two main focuses for their criticisms. The response is typified by Columbia University's Angela Rasmussen, who laid out the problems in the early parts of a Twitter thread. Rasmussen and other scientists feel that many reports haven't used caution when evaluating a draft document that hasn't been peer reviewed. As a result, the reporters didn't take the time to understand the data enough to recognize the study's limitations.

This has been a recurring challenge during the pandemic, as scientists have rushed to place preliminary data and analysis online in the hope that health authorities can benefit from it. But these drafts can vary widely in quality, and the ones that attract attention aren't necessarily the ones that are going to come through peer review without significant changes.

People tend to view peer review as a way of ensuring a paper's data is valid. But it typically performs an equally important function: determining whether a paper's data supports the conclusions its authors reach. In the case of Rasmussen's criticism, and a set of additional issues highlighted by Harvard's Bill Hanage, the draft paper falls short in that regard—leading to press coverage that's overly credulous.

What’s in the draft?
The paper has been enabled by something that simply wasn't possible until very recently: researchers are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes from patients all the time and posting the results online without restrictions, enabling others to analyze the data. Essentially, we can track the evolution of the virus as it spreads globally. Some of these mutations are irrelevant to the virus's behavior but can be useful in tracking how specific versions of the virus spread both within and between populations and could ultimately be useful in tracing sources of infections.

But there's the chance that some of these mutations also alter the virus's biology and thus would be subject to evolutionary selection. For their draft paper, the researchers analyzed every viral genome that was available at the point in April where the analysis was performed and used that to look for signs of evolution. Among other things, they looked for indications that a mutation has become increasingly prevalent in a population, which can be a sign that it is boosting the virus's ability to spread.

They also looked at things like mutations that will alter the infamous spike protein in a way that could change the immune system's ability to recognize the virus and found that some individuals have likely been infected with two viral strains at once, leading to new combinations of the mutations each strain carries. Oddly, the latter is easiest to detect in Belgium.

But the title- and coverage-worthy finding was an indication that a single mutation was becoming far more common over time. Early in March, the mutation was only found in a small percentage of the total genomes available, mostly in Europe and South America. By later in March, it was found in 29 percent of the total genomes available. In individual populations, the mutation typically grew dramatically over time, as shown in the graphs below.

In many locations, an original coronavirus strain (orange) seems to have been partly replaced by a variant form (blue).
Enlarge / In many locations, an original coronavirus strain (orange) seems to have been partly replaced by a variant form (blue).
In a study of patients in a specific UK city, the mutation wasn't associated with any medical outcomes, suggesting it didn't change the course of infections. Instead, the authors conclude that the mutation could increase the infectivity of the virus, explaining why its frequency went up in many populations. To be clear, the data is consistent with that explanation.

The problem is that it's consistent with other explanations as well.

Not so fast
To begin with, the number of genome samples per location is generally quite small, and it's not clear how the sources of the virus were chosen for genome sequencing. Most of the locations were also experiencing complicated trajectories of growth and decline in the number of cases over the course of the study period. All of these factors could potentially make a relatively minor effect look larger than it is, although the large number of locations that show similar patterns makes this less likely.

As Hanage pointed out, we also know very little about how the virus has spread between different areas. The lack of details about how often the virus was introduced and how frequently additional sources traveled among locations leaves the possibility that the pattern could be a product of founder effects and frequent reintroductions from certain areas.

And as Rasmussen emphasized, sometimes mutations become prevalent for reasons other than providing a large selective advantage. We've apparently been here before, where a mutation was thought to increase the infectivity of Ebola virus, but tests of the mutation in animals showed that it made no difference whatsoever. In other words, evidence consistent with an idea isn't enough to confirm that idea without additional data. Since all the research team did was computer analysis of genome sequences, the paper couldn't possibly produce more conclusive evidence.

So the author's conclusion, that there is an "emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2," isn't conclusively supported by the paper's data. And that's an issue that would normally be sorted out by peer review. But for now, a lot of critical information will be reaching the public without the benefit of that essential step.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05 ... headlines/
"It's not rocket surgery." - Elvis
User avatar
liminalOyster
 
Posts: 1890
Joined: Thu May 05, 2016 10:28 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Sounder » Wed May 06, 2020 9:10 pm

How could this be?

Thailand, 2989 cases, 55 deaths
Laos, 19 cases, 0 deaths
Cambodia, 122 cases, 0 deaths

www.trackcorona.live/country/th/

www.trackcorona.live/country/la/

www.trackcorona.live/country/kh/

www.trackcorona.live/country/mm/
Sounder
 
Posts: 4054
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:49 am
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Wed May 06, 2020 9:40 pm

"Lack of testing and strong incentives to lie."

We're still in a profound state of epistemic uncertainty, here, and things will only get more confused and muddled from here, not less.

How many times do you need to see the same song and dance before you stop treating muddy water as solid ground?
User avatar
Wombaticus Rex
 
Posts: 10896
Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:33 pm
Location: Vermontistan
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Nordic » Thu May 07, 2020 12:04 am

It’s here. The Rosetta Stone. Everything that seemed so wrong about this from
Day one. Explained. I’m not kidding.

https://youtu.be/MbrLQpn1bj8

"He who wounds the ecosphere literally wounds God" -- Philip K. Dick
Nordic
 
Posts: 14230
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:36 am
Location: California USA
Blog: View Blog (6)

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests