Huge explosion in Oslo

[justdrew]

I have a very strong intuition that the other shooters were already on the island.

yeah, I was just thinking that possibility, wouldn't surprise me if they had an infiltrator. but how have you gone to other shooters we're talking about two right? why think ABB didn't shoot?

[Plutonia]

My official position stated clearly just to get it out of the way:

There: I think there's most likely a covert political agenda behind the bombing/shooting/manifesto (though I'm not sure what effect is intended, if that is the case) and that Breivik at the very least, was likely to have been wound up and pointed in the direction that he went in. Evidence of that is another matter; looking for clues; attempting to deep-read the "narrative" as it's revealed.

Here: We can ignore the distractions and get on with seeking, sifting and contextualizing information as it comes in. Yes, it's true.

So, that being said, there are a few things that occurred to me today, and Mac this isn't directed towards you, just me thinking:

The delay in responding can be accounted for by allowing a combination of holiday disarray,
procedural delay and some strategic insider monkey-wrenching. Also, the responders wouldn't have known that the cop who crossed on the ferry was Breivik-the-shooter. Boats could have surreptitiously landed any number of shooters, by-passing the ferry altogether. And what about shooters arriving and leaving using scuba gear?

Plus, something I read a few months ago in Emergency:This Book Will Save You, by Neil Strauss, wherein he describes his journey of transforming from a paranoid entertainment journalist to becoming an expert survivalist and EMT and member of CERT: He gets called to the Metrolink train crash in California (25 fatalities, 135 injuries) and describes in detail each level of the chain of command, what they are responsible for and how long they require to be operational. So he rushed to the crash scene, reported in and then waited for instructions which took some time - don't remember how long ATM, but significantly long, while people were dying nearby- before he was allowed to go help survivors. Admittedly as a CERT member he's at the bottom of the chain of command, still it's worth considering his experience of an emergency response situation IMO. This is what he said in an interview:

How is it a failure?
You should think of disaster on a local level. With the federal government everything has to pass through dozens of agencies.

That’s funny, because in your book you train yourself to be a free agent.
Mainly what I learned is that you’re on your own. This isn’t a survivalist conspiracy theory. I mean, FEMA says this. And last year there were 75 declared disasters in this country, things that were too big for local and state governments to take care of.

So, what happens when there’s an emergency? What are you trained to do now?
Well, I’m now trained as an EMT, and the first thing that’s going to happen is my pager is going to go off, and the search and rescue team that I’m part of will go and help out. If, say, there’s a Metrolink train crash, we’ll go down and help the victims. But you shouldn’t be a free agent when you’re working on a massive disaster. There are no heroes in those situations.

http://www.infrastructurist.com/2009/03 ... l-survive/

Now back to the Assange/Wikileaks memetics:

A Norwegian parliamentarian has nominated Wikileaks founder Julian Assange for the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize, saying his publication of thousands of secret government documents has helped to promote human rights, democracy and freedom of speech.

Snorre Valen, 24, a member of the country's Socialist Left Party, announced his submission to the Nobel Committee Wednesday on his blog.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wikileak ... d=12825383

That looks like a bullseye to me.

Meanwhile the words "helicopter", "shooting", "children" and the memeplex "film of the attack" could be seen as pointing to the Collateral Murder video and the possible implantation of the idea of it being faked.


And Joe, no worries, I didn't take your "FFS" as being directed towards me. Cheers.

[Harvey]

I have a very strong intuition that the other shooters were already on the island.

yeah, I was just thinking that possibility, wouldn't surprise me if they had an infiltrator. but how have you gone to other shooters we're talking about two right? why think ABB didn't shoot?

I didn't say that. I'm certain he did. It's possible there were two other shooters besides.

[lupercal]

Drew I'm not certain he didn't, but based on the very familiar m.o. he seems to be an MK patsie whose specific training is to perform as the perp. Sirhan and McVeigh would be good examples, also Oswald. As to the actual killing though, he may or may not have had weapons training, but to methodically execute some dozens of helpless and unarmed children of both sexes requires a specialized skill that I haven't seen evidence of him having acquired. But it's just my opinion at this moment.

[Harvey]

Drew I'm not certain he didn't, but based on the very familiar m.o. he seems to be an MK patsie whose specific training is to perform as the perp. Sirhan and McVeigh would be good examples, also Oswald. As to the actual killing though, he may or may not have had weapons training, but to methodically execute some dozens of helpless and unarmed children of both sexes requires a specialized skill that I haven't seen evidence of him having acquired. But it's just my opinion at this moment.

Breivik was compromised. He almost certainly participated in the shootings, but he wasn't alone. We may even have seen some of the other shooters in interviews over the last few days, posing as survivors.

[justdrew]

Norway’s Premier Vows to Keep an Open Society
OSLO — The prime minister of Norway acknowledged on Wednesday that his country had fundamentally changed as a result of the attacks on a youth camp and government complex last week, but he vowed to protect the culture of openness that is a source of Norwegian pride.

The attacks have prompted officials to start reassessing Norway’s policy on public security, which seemed defined by a belief that bad things happen elsewhere. Anders Behring Breivik, a self-described Christian crusader who has admitted to the attacks, appeared to face few obstacles when he detonated a car bomb on a busy government plaza last Friday, killing 8 people, then traveled 19 miles and took a ferry to the youth camp on the island of Utoya, where he slaughtered at least 68 people.

“It’s absolutely possible to have an open, democratic, inclusive society, and at the same time have security measures and not be naive,” Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Oslo. “I think what we have seen is that there is going to be one Norway before and one Norway after July 22,” he said. “But I hope and also believe that the Norway we will see after will be more open, a more tolerant society than what we had before.”

Mr. Stoltenberg announced that the government would create a commission independent of the police to investigate the attacks as well as law enforcement agencies’ response to them.

The police have come under fire for the seemingly slow pace of their response. It took commandos about 90 minutes to reach the island, a delay that critics say likely cost dozens of lives. Helicopters were unavailable, and police had to commandeer civilian boats to reach the island.

Police officers from the precinct in Honefoss, close to Utoya, offered new details about the operation in a news conference on Wednesday.

Havard Gasbakk, the duty commander at the precinct, said that 10 commandos took two civilian boats to reach the island. His colleague Magne Rustad said that one of the boats encountered engine trouble but that it did not cause significant delays. By the time police officers arrived Mr. Breivik seemed satisfied with the extent of his killing. They found him standing with his hands behind his head, his weapons thrown to the ground.

Mr. Breivik’s ability to avoid detection in the months and weeks leading up to the attacks has puzzled some. Though he spent months holed up on a farm he had rented north of Oslo, accumulating weapons and building his bomb, all while writing inflammatory anti-Muslim commentary on blogs, officials said he remained successfully under the radar.

A Norwegian security official with knowledge of the investigation said that Mr. Breivik had appeared on a list of buyers from a Polish chemical company the police were investigating, but that his activities appeared legal at the time.

“Normally these kind of people make an error,” said the official, who requested anonymity. “But he didn’t.”

The police are still trying to determine whether Mr. Breivik had any help in planning the attacks. He has stated that he is part of an organization called the Knights Templar, which he said had cells active in other countries, but investigators have challenged that claim.

“So far we don’t have any evidence of the cells, either in Norway or in Britain,” Janne Kristiansen, the head of Norway’s domestic intelligence service, told the BBC. Ms. Kristiansen also disputed an assessment made by Mr. Breivik’s lawyer on Tuesday that his client was likely insane.

“I would be surprised if this person was insane,” Ms. Kristiansen said. “I mean he’s calculating, he’s focused, he’s been going on with his plan for years, and this is not what I have learnt a person who is insane will do.”

[Harvey]

“So far we don’t have any evidence of the cells, either in Norway or in Britain,” Janne Kristiansen, the head of Norway’s domestic intelligence service, told the BBC.

I'm hearing that the UK threat level will be increased to severe in coming days.

[justdrew]

I have a very strong intuition that the other shooters were already on the island.

yeah, I was just thinking that possibility, wouldn't surprise me if they had an infiltrator. but how have you gone to other shooters we're talking about two right? why think ABB didn't shoot?

I didn't say that. I'm certain he did. It's possible there were two other shooters besides.

ok, I see what you're saying. but the newscopter would have seen them I'd think. I suppose they might be hiding it possibly...

Drew I'm not certain he didn't, but based on the very familiar m.o. he seems to be an MK patsie whose specific training is to perform as the perp. Sirhan and McVeigh would be good examples, also Oswald. As to the actual killing though, he may or may not have had weapons training, but to methodically execute some dozens of helpless and unarmed children of both sexes requires a specialized skill that I haven't seen evidence of him having acquired. But it's just my opinion at this moment.

I'm not sure it would be that hard for someone with such ideological zeal to disassociate sufficiently to do it. He did think ahead of time about his mental state during the events and so would have been primed, and the first events could have shocked enough, plus a massive adrenaline rush... I think he could very well have pulled it off without any "professional" mind kontrol. He may have a serious breakdown in the not too distant future though. At least he's likely a full on psycho/sociopath, based on his apparent actions.

[Harvey]

but the newscopter would have seen them I'd think.

I wouldn't expect so.

[justdrew]

so anyone else catch the meaning of Palingenesis? (see my post on the last page)

There's a heck of a case of wannabe "nominative determinism"

[justdrew]

but the newscopter would have seen them I'd think.

I wouldn't expect so.

because they'd have been shooting from fixed positions? If so, forensics will reveal that hopefully.

[Harvey]

i've been wanting to return to an aspect of this that got lost after the first few pages, the Ansar al-Jihad al-Alami angle and its pushers, starting at p.4:

Harvey brought it up first (i think) here: viewtopic.php?p=415110#p415110

followed by Nordic: viewtopic.php?p=415113#p415113

then Peachtree Pam posted this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/23/world/europe/23oslo.html?_r=2&hp

...snip....


A terror group, Ansar al-Jihad al-Alami, or the Helpers of the Global Jihad, issued a statement claiming responsibility for the attack, according to Will McCants, a terrorism analyst at C.N.A., a research institute that studies terrorism. The message said the attack was a response to Norwegian forces’ presence in Afghanistan and to unspecified insults to the Prophet Muhammad. “We have warned since the Stockholm raid of more operations,” the group said, according to Mr. McCants’ translation, apparently referring to a bombing in Sweden in December 2010. “What you see is only the beginning, and there is more to come.” The claim could not be confirmed.

...snip...

Is this the same CNA?

http://www.cna.org/about/staff/featured

Address: (in very small type) 4825 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311 | 703.824.2000 | Directions

here: viewtopic.php?p=415120#p415120

then Peachtree Pam with more on CNA (now on p.5):

More on the background of CNA, located in Alexandria, Virginia, which translated the statement from the "terrorists":



CNA’s approach to research is a modern iteration of Isaac Newton’s insight that direct observation of events and people increases one’s understanding of complex, dynamic processes.

That was the methodology CNA’s first researchers used when they pioneered the field of operations research and analysis by helping the Navy address the German U-boat threat in the early 1940s. Not content to study the problem from afar, this small group of MIT scientists insisted on deploying with Navy forces so they could directly observe operational challenges and collect the data needed for meaningful analyses. Their groundbreaking work resulted in anti-submarine warfare barrier equations that set the standard for future operations research methods.

Today's CNA, with more than 350 researchers at our headquarters and 45 analysts in the field, still takes this real-world approach to its work. Our research and analysis model uses on-site analysts to carefully observe all aspects of a process—people, decisions, actions, consequences—who collaborate with a research team based at our headquarters to assess data, and arrive at findings.

This model has proved valuable to a wide range of government decision makers, and work that began with national defense-related concerns addressed by the Center for Naval Analyses has grown to include a broad range of public interest issues that are addressed by the Institute for Public Research — including education, health care and public health, homeland security, human capital management, and air traffic management.

http://www.cna.org/about/history

viewtopic.php?p=415124#p415124

i responded to her first post with this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/23/world/europe/23oslo.html?_r=2&hp

...snip....


A terror group, Ansar al-Jihad al-Alami, or the Helpers of the Global Jihad, issued a statement claiming responsibility for the attack, according to Will McCants, a terrorism analyst at C.N.A., a research institute that studies terrorism. The message said the attack was a response to Norwegian forces’ presence in Afghanistan and to unspecified insults to the Prophet Muhammad. “We have warned since the Stockholm raid of more operations,” the group said, according to Mr. McCants’ translation, apparently referring to a bombing in Sweden in December 2010. “What you see is only the beginning, and there is more to come.” The claim could not be confirmed.

...snip...

Is this the same CNA?

http://www.cna.org/about/staff/featured

Address: (in very small type) 4825 Mark Center Drive, Alexandria, VA 22311 | 703.824.2000 | Directions

Alleged Claim for Oslo Attacks
Posted: 22nd July 2011 by Will McCants in Europe
56

This was posted by Abu Sulayman al-Nasir to the Arabic jihadi forum, Shmukh, around 10:30am EST (thread 118187). Shmukh is the main forum for Arabic-speaking jihadis who support al-Qaeda. Since the thread is now inaccessible (either locked or taken down), I am posting it here. I don’t have time at the moment to translate the whole thing but I translated the most important bits on twitter.

Update: Abu Sulayman has now issued a retraction, stating clearly that “Helpers” was not involved in the operation and that his statement was not an official statement. He says those who carried out the attacks “must surely be known to all.”

http://www.jihadica.com/alleged-claim-for-oslo-attacks/

right...

Jihadica:

About
By Will McCants

Jihadica is a clearinghouse for materials related to militant, transnational Sunni Islamism, commonly known as Jihadism. At the moment, much of this material is diffuse, known only to a few specialists, and inaccessible to the public and policymakers unless they pay a fee. Jihadica provides this material for free and keeps a daily record of its dissemination that can be easily searched and studied. These records are accompanied by the expert commentary of people who have the requisite language training to understand the primary source material and advanced degrees in relevant fields.

The Team

William McCants, the founder and co-editor of Jihadica, is a research analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies at CNA and adjunct faculty at Johns Hopkins University. He has served as Senior Adviser for Countering Violent Extremism at the U.S. Department of State, program manager of the Minerva Initiative at the Department of Defense, and fellow at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. Will has a PhD from Princeton University and is the editor of the Militant Ideology Atlas. Far afield from his publications and translations related to jihadism, Will’s book on early Islamic culture myths, Founding Gods, Inventing Nations, will be published this Winter.

Thomas Hegghammer is a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). He has a PhD from Sciences-Po in Paris and is the author of a forthcoming book entitled Jihad in Saudi Arabia.

Vahid Brown is a former Harmony Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, a senior instructor for the CTC’s FBI program, and now pursuing a PhD in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. He is the author of Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in al-Qa’ida, 1989-2006. His research focuses on the history of transnational Islamist militancy, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Brynjar Lia is the director of terrorism research at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). He holds a PhD from the University of Oslo. He is the author of several books on terrorism and Islamism, including Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al-Qaida Strategist Abu Mus`ab al-Suri.

Hanna Rogan is a research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and a PhD candidate at the University of Oslo. She wrote a Master’s thesis on al-Qaida’s media strategy and is currently working on jihadism in North Africa.

Scott Sanford is a graduate student at George Washington University, Washington D.C. His research focus is militant movements in the Levant.

Anne Stenersen is a research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and a PhD candidate at the University of Oslo. She is the author of the book Al-Qaida’s Quest for Weapons of Mass Destruction. Her current research focuses on the history of the Arabs in Afghanistan and Pakistan after 9/11.

Truls Tønnessen is also a research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and a PhD candidate in History at the University of Oslo. His MA degree focused on Islamism in Egypt, while his doctoral research centers on the Iraqi insurgency.

All contributors are writing in a private capacity; the views expressed here do not represent those of their employers, their affiliate institutions, or the governments of the countries in which they live.

http://www.jihadica.com/about/

Thomas Hegghammer (CV) is an academic specialising in the study of violent Islamism. He is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) in Oslo and a non-resident fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security. He is the author of the book Jihad in Saudi Arabia (Cambridge University Press) and the co-author of al-Qaida in its own words (Harvard University Press, 2008). Thomas Hegghammer also edits the blog Jihadica and comments frequently in international media.

Recent Publications
- "Sikkerhetspolitiske implikasjoner av opprørene i Midtøsten", DNAK Kortinfo, (11 May 2011)
- "The Rise of Muslim Foreign Fighters", International Security (6 January 2011). See also the related policy brief.
- "The case for chasing al-Awlaki", ForeignPolicy.com (24 November 2010)

Other news
- Jacket cover of the forthcoming book The Meccan Rebellion available (21 May 2011)
- Audio interview with the Economist on the death of Usama bin Ladin (6 May 2011)
- Thomas Hegghammer awarded the annual prize for young scholars (humanities and social sciences) by the Royal Norwegian Society of Sciences and Letters (11 March 2011)
- Testimony to the Special Senate Committee on Anti-Terrorism, Canadian Senate (6 December 2010)
- Webcast recorded for the National September 11 Memorial Museum website (7 July 2010)

Upcoming talks
- none scheduled

http://hegghammer.com/

Brynjar Lia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Brynjar Lia (born July 14, 1966) is a Norwegian historian and research professor at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) where he is head of FFI's research on international terrorism and global jihadism. Lia is viewed as one of Norway's foremost experts on terrorism and is much cited in Norwegian and international media in connection to Al-Qaeda and international terrorism. Lia's last book is about Abu Musab al-Suri, which has been reviewed in publications like Newsweek, The Economist, London Review of Books, and The New York Review of Books.
[edit] Bibliography of books in English

Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al Qaeda Strategist Abu Mus'ab Al-Suri (Columbia Univ. Press, 2008)
Building Arafat's Police: The Politics of International Police Assistance in the Palestinian Territories After the Oslo Agreement (Ithaca Press, 2007)
A Police Force Without a State: A History of the Palestinian Security Forces in the West Bank And Gaza (Ithaca Press, 2006)
Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions (Routledge, 2005)
The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt 1928-42 (Ithaca Press, 1998)

[edit] External links

FFI explains al-Qaida document, regarding a pre-warning found on the Internet about the Madrid 2004 bombing
Dr Brynjar Lia's "The al-Qaida Strategist Abu Mus'ab al-Suri: A Profile", from Counterterrorism blog
Newsweek article about Abu Musab al-Suri with comments from Lia
Book review of Architect of Global Jihad (The Economist, 2007)
Book review of Architect of Global Jihad (London Review of Books, 2008)
The growth of 'online Jihadism' (BBC World, 26 October 2006)
Jihadi Suicide Bombers: The New Wave (The New York Review of Books, June 2008)

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... rynjar_Lia

Ever since the late 1990s, it has been claimed that the threat of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) terrorism from al-Qaida is real and growing. Yet, few academic studies have been focused towards analyzing al-Qaida¿s actual interest in developing a CBRN capability. This book seeks to investigate al-Qaida¿s interest in CBRN weapons, as reflected by statements and activities on various levels within the network between 1996- 2007. The study considers a variety of primary sources, ranging from the writings of well-known strategists to chemical formulations posed on al-Qaida-affiliated web pages. The study concludes that al-Qaida¿s interest in using non- conventional means to achieve their goals appears lower than commonly anticipated. The book then goes on to discuss why there is an apparent lack of CBRN-related innovation within the network, drawing from previous studies on CBRN terrorism and innovation in militant organizations. This book is aimed at anyone with an interest in the topics of CBRN terrorism or militant islamism, and might be of particular interest to professionals within the counter-terrorism community.

About the Author
Anne Stenersen, M.Phil: Studied Arabic at the University of Oslo and has conducted research on terrorism and militant Islamism since 2006. Research fellow at the Terrorism and Political Violence Project at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI).

http://www.amazon.com/Al-Qaidas-Quest-W ... 203&sr=1-1

*

there it ended. i still find these "actors" and their responses interesting. also, i think "Ansar al-Jihad" were made up wholecloth. everyone was waiting for the usual suspects, not just the MSM but the spook media-saturation outfits. then they got hit with Breivik and the original posting is retracted. coverage starts to quiet down rapidly. and the counter spin starts: handwashing and accusations on all fronts.

edit: "they" (supply your own preferred filler) were not expecting Breivik.

*

I'm not sure if i mentioned it first, but my point was to highlight the unlikely synchronicity of phrasing between the shooter and the supposed claim. Even at the time with so little known, it was odd. You can bet your ass and your estate, the security services aren't busting a gut to find the source of the fictional Islamic groups claim, because they already know.

[Harvey]

but the newscopter would have seen them I'd think.

I wouldn't expect so.

because they'd have been shooting from fixed positions? If so, forensics will reveal that hopefully.

Holding your breath could prove fatal...

[Plutonia]

Hmm... good word drew.

Weirdly evokative of the Palin family's baby mystery.

wikipedia:

Palingenesis (from Greek palin-, again, + genesis, becoming, birth) is a term that is used for analogous concepts in philosophy, theology, politics, and biology. Its meaning stems from Greek palin, meaning again, and genesis, meaning birth - ie rebirth.

In biology, it is another word for recapitulation - the phase in the development of an organism in which its form and structure pass through the changes undergone in the evolution of the species. In theology, the word can be used to refer to reincarnation and Christian spiritual rebirth during baptism.

Philosophy and Theology
The word palingenesis or rather palingenesia may be traced back to the Stoics, who used the term for the continual re-creation of the universe by the Demiurgus (Creator) after its absorption into himself. Similarly Philo spoke of Noah and his sons as leaders of a renovation or rebirth of the earth, Plutarch of the transmigration of souls, and Cicero of his own return from exile.

In philosophy it denotes in its broadest sense the theory (e.g. of the Pythagoreans) that the human soul does not die with the body but is born again in new incarnations. It is thus the equivalent of metempsychosis. The term has a narrower and more specific use in the system of Schopenhauer, who applied it to his doctrine that the will does not die but manifests itself afresh in new individuals. He thus repudiates the primitive metempsychosis doctrine which maintains the reincarnation of the particular soul.

Robert Burton in the Anatomy of Melancholy (1628) writes, "The Pythagoreans defend metempsychosis and palingenesia, that souls go from one body to another."

In the Gospel of Matthew[1] Jesus is quoted in Greek (although his historical utterance would most likely have been in Aramaic) using the word "παλιγγενεσια" ("palingenesia") to describe the Last Judgment foreshadowing the event of the regeneration of a new world. Palingenesia is thus as much the result of, or reason for, the Last Judgement as it is directly the Judgement itself.

Politics
Although Josephus used the term for the national restoration of the Jews, the core tenets of the political ideology of fascism earn its description as a "palingenetic ideology", primarily as a result of the notion that fascism itself is the rebirth of a state and/or empire in the image of that which came before it - thus, the ancestral political underpinnings. Specifically academic political theorist Roger Griffin refers to fascism as "palingenetic ultranationalism". The best examples of this can be found with both Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany - Italy looking to establish a palingenetic line between the 20th century regime under Benito Mussolini as being the second incarnation of the Roman Empire, while Adolf Hitler's regime was seen as being the third palingenetic incarnation - beginning first with the Holy Roman Empire ("First Reich") then with Bismarck's German Empire ("Second Reich") and then resulting in Nazi Germany ("Third Reich").

Biology
In modern biology (e.g. Haeckel and Fritz Müller), palingenesis has been used for the exact reproduction of ancestral features by inheritance, as opposed to kenogenesis, in which the inherited characteristics are modified by environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palingenesis

[Harvey]

so anyone else catch the meaning of Palingenesis? (see my post on the last page)

There's a heck of a case of wannabe "nominative determinism"

Let's just hope she never hears of it!