Live: Al Jazeera coverage of Egypt’s growing revolution

[vanlose kid]

...

You're very wrong if you think that the Egyptian people rose up merely to get rid of Mubarak, or even that they perceive democracy as an end in itself...

my bad Alice. maybe i wasn't clear enough. i agree with you that the Eygtian people merely rose up to get rid of Mubarak. but the brass and the ruling class in Egypt are trying to make that "sufficient". both things are happening.

i believe the uprising is real. that, however, does not exclude the fact that the military coup, which did take place is equally real, and an attempt to stem the change the uprising might have effected. i don't think the two are mutually exclusive. let me put this way, the people move in one direction and the powers that be move in another. as far as i can tell both moves are taking place.

now, if civil war does break out in Libya, what do you think will become of the uprising and moves for change in Egypt and elsewhere? how do you think the Egyptian military brass will react? – what do you think the chances for civil war in Egypt are?

*

[AlicetheKurious]

i believe the uprising is real. that, however, does not exclude the fact that the military coup, which did take place is equally real, and an attempt to stem the change the uprising might have effected. i don't think the two are mutually exclusive. let me put this way, the people move in one direction and the powers that be move in another. as far as i can tell both moves are taking place.

Again, it wasn't a military coup -- the powers that be may include some of the very top brass of the armed forces, including Field Marshal Tantawy, but his decision to side decisively with the uprising was a very pragmatic one, based on the strong indications that his own officers and troops would have turned against him if he hadn't. Tantawy doesn't call the shots, even within the military -- everything's decided by committees, and at this point he's doing his best to stay on the right side.

The real "powers that be" are concentrated in five other sectors: 1) the mammoth police and "state security" forces; 2) the editorial boards and heads of state-owned media; 3) certain ministries of the transitional government; 4) the cadres of the National Democratic Party; and 5) the regime-linked business elite.

All five are on the defensive, virtually besieged and able to do little in the little time they have left, with new indictments coming out every day, except for the police and security forces, which are hitting back by hiding away while covertly orchestrating chaos and lawlessness to provoke people into begging for their return. Few seem to be falling for it, though, and I think this will backfire by making people more determined to weed out the bad ones and dismantling the forces and units most associated with violence and corruption in service of the previous regime.

This Friday is expected to be yet another record-breaker in Tahrir Square, a show of force to keep the pressure up and disillusion anybody who hopes to wear the demands down through stalling tactics.

now, if civil war does break out in Libya, what do you think will become of the uprising and moves for change in Egypt and elsewhere? how do you think the Egyptian military brass will react? – what do you think the chances for civil war in Egypt are?

Nil. The revolutionaries are awe-inspiring in their single-minded determination to push this revolution through and they have the advantage of an enormous popular base combined with the means to network and communicate and keep things on-track. They're incredibly savvy and have so far proven to be far more resourceful and creative than the "powers that be", outmaneuvering them at every stage. In fact, there appears to be a judo-type dynamic going on, with the revolutionaries using a variety of strictly nonviolent methods of outing the regime (including its covert collaborators), forcing it to expose itself. Everything it does seems to backfire and paradoxically harden the opposition against it. Rather than whittling down the demands, its own actions have not only created even higher and more far-reaching demands but mobilized more people to make them.

[vanlose kid]

funny. you're making me sound like i worry too much, which is something i tend to think you do.

it's cool though. and i do hope you're right.

peace.

*

[AlicetheKurious]

Peace back.

Just keep in mind that while dramatic events get most of the attention, true revolutions take time. The previous Egyptian revolution, which began with a military coup, took two years before Nasser even became known as its leader and at least four years to gel into a genuine grassroots force with the awesome power to inspire coups and revolutions all over the Arab world, Africa and beyond. At one point this created conditions that almost led to a new world order in which former colonies banded together to create a global economic and political and military front to defend themselves from domination or exploitation by either of the two superpower-led blocks.

Unfortunately, Nasser's revolution never abandoned its internal top-down monopoly on power, which made it that much easier for its accomplishments to be reversed with a simple change of leadership, with terrible consequences that are still being felt today. Believe me, all these things have been exhaustively dissected and studied, and important lessons learned.

[Plutonia]

The visit of McCain and Lieberman, escorted by the American ambassador, got a lot more attention from their US target audience than it did here. It barely rated a mention in the Egyptian press and besides, few people here know or care who those silly grinning Americans draped in the Egyptian flag were. Egyptians have far more pressing concerns.

Sure, but if those reptiles are there it's not for the photo-op.

They must have been sent to serve US interests somehow, either to do with the US's cupboard of dirty secrets over there, to pay off their well-placed stooges or to assist their old pal Mubarak with his retirement savings plan.

I wondered about the timing of this today:

On Monday, the public prosecutor issued an order freezing the assets of Mr. Mubarak and his family, and preventing them from leaving Egypt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/world ... egypt.html

I mean, why the delay?

Yeah, McCain and Lieberman, they aren't on vacation and they are bad news:

Tantawi Meets McCain and Lieberman

Cairo, Feb. 27. (BNA) -- Head of Egypt's Higher Military Council Marshal Hussain Tantawi today held a meeting with the US Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman who arrived here earlier today. According to the Middle East News Agency, the meeting focused on the latest local and regional developments, as well as the US support for Egypt for the sake of consolidating the military relations bonding the two countries.

http://bna.bh/portal/en/news/448499

[JackRiddler]

These uprisings were always coming and the question is less why they're happening than how the autocracies managed to avoid them for so long. The primary organizers of the uprisings were the autocrats and the regimes themselves. Their heavy-handed actions and plunder of national wealth over many years created broad united fronts against them. Over-centralized, authoritarian and corrupt, any sustained protest would prove a challenge.

This isn't the first time that someone lit themselves on fire and started a revolution (see the Buddhists in Vietnam, 1963, no Twitter involved). Contrary to the relentless corporate media hype, the real heart of the uprisings is not that people use social media as tools for communication and organizing, but that they still maintain the locally based real-world community, the familiarity, the social bonds and solidarity that make possible strong and united street protests of people who trust each other to fight together. After Bazizi committed his act, the word of mouth in the neighborhoods mobilized the people. Internet was for coordination among separate groups. National mobilizations have been achieved in the history of pretty much every nation, using whatever communications are available; the use of relatively new channels doesn't mean its suddenly voodoo.

Of course a successful uprising in Tunisia was going to inspire the rest of the Arab world by example.

In the paranoid solipsism of those who see agency only in the American empire, and all else prostrate before it, Cyber Command is the latest author of the uprisings, steering millions of people like board pieces via its control of social media. Now Cyber Command is there to eat a lot of money and provide the capacity to wage electronic warfare, shut systems down. They'll no doubt try psyops and that will probably include trolling ("persona management") and targeting people and groups and places to destroy (no doubt arbitrarily). To think they possess the reach, knowledge and fine control required to orchestrate the Arab protests, and to think that the Pentagon actually wants the Arab protests, is nuts. Or maybe it's the last weapon the Pentagon has left. Maybe they plan to get the protesters to go home by convincing them that they're actually doing the Pentagon's secret will.

.

[AlicetheKurious]

It's just been announced: the resignation of Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq has been accepted and a new guy who I don't know, Essam something or other, has been requested TO FORM A NEW GOVERNMENT.

From this thread, Sunday, February 27:

Got a nice SMS on my cell-phone this morning:

From the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces: We are fully informed and aware of the demands of the honorable people and citizens and we are working to fulfill them.

I predict that the Ahmed Shafiq government won't last the week, and that we will be hearing other good news very soon.

Within the week, just like I said.

Although I now think I was wrong about the reasons. It's all very hard on the nerves, this business of revolution.

On Edit: I got the news from an excited friend over the phone, so I didn't make the connection.

The new transitional prime minister of Egypt is former Transport Minister Essam Sharaf:

Essam Sharaf to form new Egypt government
Ahram Online, Thursday 3 Mar 2011

Essam Sharaf, a former minister of transport, has been charged by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of forming the new cabinet, following the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. Sharaf was one of a handfull of ex-ministers, who declared their support for the revolution in its early days, and is said to have joined the protesters in Tahrir Sq, days before ex-president Mubarak stepped down. Sharaf, a professor of engineering who served under Mubarak during 2004-2006, is well resepected among the Egyptian public. He has been a vocal opponent of the Mubarak regime since that time, and has been especially critical of the collapse of public transport under Mubarak. Link

The $64,000 question now is: who will be heading the core ministries including Justice, the Interior, Foreign Affairs, Petroleum, Labor? (We already know who will continue to be Minister of Defense, meaning that despite this good news, the champagne stays in the fridge for the foreseeable future).

On Edit: Oh, all right. ONE GLASS.

[norton ash]

Cheers, Alice!

[tazmic]

...if the pro-democracy movement lets itself be stampeded by the "economic ruin" narrative, structures could be put in place by "technocrats" under the aegis of the military transitional government that would tie the eventual civilian government into actually quickening the pace of privatization. Ideologues, including those of the neoliberal stripe, are prone to a witchcraft mode of thinking: if the spell does not work, it is not the fault of the magic, but rather the fault of the shaman who performed the spell. In other words, the logic could be that it was not neoliberalism that ruined Mubarak’s Egypt, but the faulty application of neoliberalism.

A neoliberal fix would, however, be a tragedy for the pro-democracy movement. The demands of the protesters were clear and largely political: remove the regime; end the emergency law; stop state torture; hold free and fair elections. But implicit in these demands from the beginning (and decisive by the end) was an expectation of greater social and economic justice. Social media may have helped organise the kernel of a movement that eventually overthrew Mubarak, but a large element of what got enough people into the streets to finally overwhelm the state security forces was economic grievances that are intrinsic to neoliberalism. These grievances cannot be reduced to grinding poverty, for revolutions are never carried out by the poorest of the poor. It was rather the erosion of a sense that some human spheres should be outside the logic of markets. Mubarak’s Egypt degraded schools and hospitals, and guaranteed grossly inadequate wages, particularly in the ever-expanding private sector. This was what turned hundreds of dedicated activists into millions of determined protestors.

If the January 25th revolution results in no more than a retrenchment of neoliberalism, or even its intensification, those millions will have been cheated.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/02/201122414315249621.html

[tazmic]

...the logic could be that it was not neoliberalism that ruined Mubarak’s Egypt, but the faulty application of neoliberalism.

"The Egyptian revolution should be taken as an opportunity by the U.S. and other major aid donors to require, as a condition of continued aid, the additional economic reforms necessary for Egypt to grow at a 7 to 10 percent annual rate."

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12833

[AlicetheKurious]

...the logic could be that it was not neoliberalism that ruined Mubarak’s Egypt, but the faulty application of neoliberalism.

"The Egyptian revolution should be taken as an opportunity by the U.S. and other major aid donors to require, as a condition of continued aid, the additional economic reforms necessary for Egypt to grow at a 7 to 10 percent annual rate."

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12833

Wishful thinking. BTW, it's not correct to say that the revolution is characterized by mainly political demands and that the demand for "social and economic justice" has only been implicit. On the contrary, the original chants on the afternoon of January 25 were for "Dignity, freedom, social (meaning economic) justice!" (karama, horreya, adala egtema'eya!").

Neo-liberalism, often referred to as "savage capitalism", has few fans outside the narrow confines of the socio-economic elite that benefits from it. In fact, it's perceived as the predatory mechanism by which Egypt's industrial and agricultural and natural resource wealth was plundered to profit a few at the expense of the many, not to mention that it's a foreign plot to weaken and enslave Egypt on behalf of foreign interests.

Furthermore, given that Egypt is a country where "IMF" and "World Bank" are dirty words and where photos of the SOCIALIST president Gamal Abdelnasser are held up in anti-regime demonstrations and where the poetry of the LEFTIST working-class dissident Ahmed Fouad Negm is recited and where people believe that a strong public sector is vital not only to national independence but to the realization of important national development projects, where America is associated with Israel, Abu Ghraib and Mubarak, and where a backbone of the revolution is the April 6 workers' movement, I think the author is being unduly pessimistic.

On the other hand, it doesn't hurt to stay alert.

[AlicetheKurious]

On BBC Arabic: Gaza residents can't watch any tv because there are Israeli military planes flying back and forth over the Strip day and night, jamming the signals.

[DevilYouKnow]

On BBC Arabic: Gaza residents can't watch any tv because there are Israeli military planes flying back and forth over the Strip day and night, jamming the signals.

Well, that shows us they're nervous. Which in a way is encouraging, no?

Like Omar Suleyman on the eve of his ousting: "Go home and don't watch satellite television".

[psynapz]

On BBC Arabic: Gaza residents can't watch any tv because there are Israeli military planes flying back and forth over the Strip day and night, jamming the signals.

In some ways this act is more shameful, cowardly, transparent and ridiculous than any other individual fascist act they perform. I wouldn't be seeing snow on my TV, I'd be seeing red everywhere.

Collectively, of course, it barely registers a ripple in their bucket when dropped, such is the interference from all the overflow.

But damn, if ever there were a self-delegitimizing act, flying back and forth jamming your media (or killing the country's Internet access) would have to be it.

[Nordic]

On BBC Arabic: Gaza residents can't watch any tv because there are Israeli military planes flying back and forth over the Strip day and night, jamming the signals.

Hm, I wonder if that would work with my son, to get him to watch less TV .........

(just trying to find some humor in this, somehow ........)