How Bad Is Global Warming?

Moderators: Elvis, DrVolin, Jeff

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Ben D » Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:37 pm

Iamwhomiam » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:16 am wrote:
Ben D » Thu May 29, 2014 4:53 pm wrote:
Iamwhomiam » Fri May 30, 2014 5:33 am wrote:While many will argue that carbon dioxide levels have been prehistorically higher than presently, never has our anthropogenic carbon black, common soot, been higher.

Sure Iam...but please note that temperatures have also been prehistorically higher before....without the anthropogenic presence.


Why were temperatures higher so many millions of years ago, Ben, than they are now?

I would appreciate everyone taking note that Ben's agreeing with me on this one point.

Iam, fyi I was not talking about temperature millions of years ago....I was referring to the previous interglacials.

There has been only four interglacials before this one in the last four hundred and fifty thousand years whereby the world could sustain reasonably high human populations. And these interglacials only constitute about 4% of the time, a relatively small time, say roughly on average about 10 to 15 thousand year duration,....and this one is already over ten thousand years so the planetary warmness is not for much longer...dropping back into the next ice age could begin anytime in the next four thousand years? But to the here and now....check the relative temperatures of the present one compared to the previous ones....so far as I know there were no human civilisations as highly populated as the present interglacial.....why do you think that temperatures have been higher in previous interglacials?

Image
Four fairly regular glacial-interglacial cycles occurred during the past 450,000 years.
There is That which was not born, nor created, nor evolved. If it were not so, there would never be any refuge from being born, or created, or evolving. That is the end of suffering. That is God**.

** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
User avatar
Ben D
 
Posts: 2005
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:10 pm
Location: Australia
Blog: View Blog (3)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Thu Jun 05, 2014 4:22 pm

Energy Department Bombshell: LNG Has No Climate Benefit For Decades, IF EVER*

By Joe Romm on June 4, 2014 at 5:03 pm


Image

An explosive new report from the U.S. Department of Energy makes clear that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is likely a climate-destroying misallocation of resources.

That is, if one uses estimates for methane leakage based on actual observations.

This is the same conclusion I reached back in 2012, based on

Emerging analyses of how even a relatively low leakage rate in the natural gas production and delivery system negate its climate benefit, and
A 2009 EU report on how the energy-intensive liquefaction process and transportation further increase LNG emissions.

Again, natural gas is mostly methane, and some 86 times (to as much as 105 times) better at trapping heat than carbon dioxide.

One of the country’s leading experts on natural gas leaks told me, “a close reading of the DOE report in the context of the recent literature indicates that exporting natural gas from the U.S. as LNG is a very poor idea.”

So you may wonder why the Financial Times had this headline on its story: “US LNG exports could help countries curb emissions.”

To make LNG a climate winner, you’d have to assume levels of methane leakage that are a factor of 2 to 3 lower than what recent observations reveal. That is exactly what DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) does in its analysis, “Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from the United States.”

Here is the stunning (if confusing) chart from the DOE report:
Image

FIGURE 6-9 depicts the life cycle GHG emissions for the U.S. LNG and Russian natural gas scenarios as a function of the methane leakage that occurs during extraction, processing, and transport on a 20-year basis. It also includes a reference line for the coal power scenario. The diamond-shaped data points represent the modeled leakage for each scenario and the circular data points represent the breakeven leakage at which the life cycle GHG emissions for natural gas power would equal those for the coal reference case.

Yes, despite multiple studies to the contrary, the DOE is asserting that the leakage rate is very low in the U.S. (but not in Russia, of course) — so low that U.S. LNG just happens to be better for Europe than its own coal:

“The high modeled leakage rate for the U.S. LNG scenarios (1.6 percent) is still less than the breakeven percentage for the European scenario (1.9 percent), but slightly higher than the breakeven for the Asian scenario (1.4 percent)…. As previously noted, the calculated breakeven points are the most conservative, so these results do not indicate that natural gas has a higher GHG than coal on a 20-year basis in all cases.”

The DOE is actually asserting that the absurdly low leakage rate of 1.6 percent is conservative! How conservative? Look at this table:
Image

For DOE, 1.6 percent leakage is the highest leakage rate they considered!! And 1.4% is what they expect for shale gas. #FAIL

In fact, leakage rates are almost certainly at least double that! Yes, the EPA has lowered its estimate to about 1.5 percent — based solely on industry-provided numbers. But multiple studies in the last two years based on actual observations have made clear the EPA was simply wrong.

Back in November, fifteen scientists from some of the leading institutions in the world — including Harvard, NOAA and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab — published a seminal observation-based study, “Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States.” The authors took the unusual step of explicitly criticizing the EPA: “The US EPA recently decreased its CH4 emission factors for fossil fuel extraction and processing by 25–30% (for 1990–2011), but we find that CH4 data from across North America instead indicate the need for a larger adjustment of the opposite sign.”

How much larger? The study found greenhouse gas emissions from “fossil fuel extraction and processing (i.e., oil and/or natural gas) are likely a factor of two or greater than cited in existing studies.” In particular, they concluded, “regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory.”

This suggests the methane leakage rate from natural gas production is in fact 3 percent or higher.

A comprehensive Stanford study from February suggested things might even be worse: “A review of more than 200 earlier studies confirms that U.S. emissions of methane are considerably higher than official estimates. Leaks from the nation’s natural gas system are an important part of the problem.” Their analysis finds:

“… an excess percentage leakage of 1.8% to 5.4% of end use gas. Coupled with the current estimate of 1.8% leakage of end use gas consumed, this generates a high-end estimate of 7.1% gas leakage.”

Ouch.

After discussing the matter with the lead author, Stanford’s Adam Brandt, I wrote that given the risks to humanity from climate change, it seems conservative to take the middle of the range, 5.4%. That’s particularly conservative given that 3 separate studies by NOAA found leakage rates just from NG production of 4%, 17%, and 6-12%!

[In case you wondered if the Stanford study was too recent for NETL to include in its May 29 report, NETL released another report on natural gas emissions the same day that cites it several times.]

If one were to use 3 percent as the leakage rate, LNG-fueled power plants would be worse than coal from a climate perspective for decades. If you use 5.4 percent, then Figure 6.8 makes clear LNG-fueled power plants are worse than coal for a century!

Finally, the recent observation-based calculations of methane leakage are quite similar to that estimated in the much-maligned (but apparently correct) 2012 Cornell study led by Cornell’s Bob Howarth. So I asked Howarth for comment on NETL’s report. He replied:

The NETL report seems determined to prove that LNG export from the US is desirable from a climate perspective, and the authors have torqued their analysis in several ways to reach this conclusion. A big omission is their failure to consider methane emissions from the LNG tankers and storage tanks: “boil off,” or the purposeful release of LNG that provides evaporative cooling to maintain the liquid status of the LNG. LNG tankers try to capture most of this boil off, but even small losses are highly significant and can make LNG a disastrous fuel from the standpoint of global warming. I find it remarkable that the NETL report does not even mention methane emissions from boil off.

Despite these shortcomings, a close reading of the NETL report in the context of the recent literature indicates that exporting natural gas from the US as LNG is a very poor idea. For instance, their figure 6.9 shows that coal has a lower greenhouse gas footprint than exported LNG if the upstream methane emission rates are greater than 1.6% to 1.9%, when considered over an integrated 20-year time period following the methane emission, even when though they are ignoring the boil-off emissions. Because of risk of hitting tipping points in the climate system due to climatic warming from methane emissions over the cover few decades, this shorter time frame of analysis is critical. And current upstream methane emissions from shale and other unconventional natural gas are almost certainly greater than these break-even values of 1.6% to 1.9%, as shown by much recent literature summarized in my paper published last month (online here).

Precisely.

One final point: Contrary to the implication of NETL’s analysis, natural gas doesn’t just displace coal — it also displaces carbon-free sources of power such as renewable energy, nuclear power, and energy efficiency. A recent analysis finds that effect has been large enough recently to wipe out almost the entire climate benefit from increasing natural gas use in the U.S. utility sector if the leakage rate is only 1.2 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Investing billions of dollars in new shale gas infrastructure for domestic use is, as we’ve seen, a bridge to nowhere — especially until we put in place both a CO2 price and regulations to minimize methane leakage. The extra emissions from LNG completely eliminate whatever benefit there might be of building billion-dollar export terminals and other LNG infrastructure, which in any case will last many decades, long after we need a nearly carbon-free electric grid. At best, investing billions in LNG infrastructure is a waste of enormous resources better utilized for deploying truly low-carbon energy. At worst, it helps accelerate the world past the 2°C (3.6°F) warming threshold into Terra incognitaa planet of amplifying feedbacks and multiple simultaneous catastrophic impacts.

*If one uses estimates for methane leakage based on actual observations.
User avatar
stillrobertpaulsen
 
Posts: 2414
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:43 pm
Location: Gone baby gone
Blog: View Blog (37)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:28 pm

Thank goodness for the tireless efforts of state intelligence against the misinformed and naive.

Coal Spies: The Secret World of Black Ops
by Tom Allard / The Sydney Morning Herald

Burly and bearded, Tony Groves arrived at the camp at Maules Creek in northern NSW, declaring a passion for the environment and an exotic, hidden past.

The former military intelligence officer and Harley Davidson enthusiast called himself Tony Allen, and fitted in at first with the ragtag community of greenies and landowners who had been protesting for three years against the dramatic expansion of coal mining in the area by Japanese mining giant Idemitsu and Whitehaven Coal.

It soon became apparent that something was odd. He would disappear suddenly and frequently and suggest protest actions that were highly risky and potentially damaging to the cause. Somewhat implausibly, Tony had explained he was facing weapons charges, a fugitive from a bikie gang which he had left amid threats of retribution.

”He was just completely neurotic about being in a photograph,” says Ben Solity, one of the protest leaders.

A Fairfax Media investigation this week uncovered the fact Groves was part of an extraordinary undercover operation against the activists who are known as the Leard Forest Alliance or Front Line Action Against Coal.

For five months, former military and intelligence personnel took on assumed identities with elaborate backstories and rotated through the camp, taking notes, reporting back on any planned actions, profiling the leadership and trying to uncover whether the protesters themselves had spies inside the mines.

It failed. Several agents were identified, and at least one directly confronted.

Groves was a senior figure. His company – the Centre of Intelligence and Risk Management (CIRM) – wrangled the spies for the clandestine operation. He reported to Tyrone Clark, a former Australian Federal Police officer, whose company C5 Management Solutions received the intelligence, distilling it and passed it on to the mining companies via their security arms.

Following Fairfax’s first report on the espionage on Monday, Idemitsu admitted it had contracted C5 Management Solutions and another firm understood to be involved, the mysterious Strongs Security Services. After years of suspicions among activists, it is the first time that such an operation has been verified.

These kinds of ”black ops” may seem like something from a modern spy novel or a Hollywood blockbuster but have been long documented overseas and speculated about here.

And the exposure of the clandestine project raises important and uncomfortable questions about corporate power, privacy and the right to protest.

Such outright deception is widespread among a plethora of private security firms, intelligence firms and detective agencies.

It is almost certain there have been attempts to infiltrate protest groups and NGOs, but the practice of deception and false identities extends to other private investigation work, including spying on workplaces, people in legal disputes and even divorce.

Using a false identity to obtain information on a ”target” is known as ”pretexting”, says Wayne Edwards, a 31-year surveillance veteran who runs Harjan Investigations.

”It’s something that’s commonly used within the industry,” he said.

Mr Edwards describes an industry where regulation is weak and often flouted, and where ”manipulation, intimidation and bullying are rife”. It is a sector where big companies dominate and subcontract work to smaller firms.

”You’re only as good as your last job and subcontractors are put under pressure by some companies to step outside the boundaries of the code of practice – including things like pretexting – to get results.”

New entrants to the industry are coming from the ranks of former soldiers, police and spies who took up lucrative private contracting work in Iraq and Afghanistan. People like Tony Groves, who worked for the international security giant Garda Global. With the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq winding down, work is more scarce and techniques used in the conflict zones are being deployed in Australia.

Companies like C5, CIRM and Strongs Security Services operate in the shadows. All refused to respond to calls from Fairfax Media and only C5 publicly lists its contact information.

Their corporate paymasters adopt a ”don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that borders on laughable.

Asked about the security operation, Idemitsu’s chief operating officer, Rod Bridges, said: ”How they found out all this information [about the protesters' activities] … Well we didn’t ask questions.” Mr Bridges said he had little knowledge about Strongs Security despite the lucrative contract it was awarded about six months ago, although he believed it was headed by an ”ex-French foreign legionnaire”.

Whitehaven Coal – already facing a public relations disaster as its former owner Nathan Tinkler is accused of illegal political donations during Independent Commission against Corruption hearings – insists it had no knowledge or involvement in the exercise.

But multiple sources indicate that its security staff, at least, were aware of the infiltration project and benefited from the information it uncovered.

”The protest at Maules Creek has been non-violent and open,” wrote Phil Laird, a local farmer whose family has been in the district for 160 years. ”If the coal industry wants to know our plans, then perhaps they could engage with the protectors rather than send in undercover security agents to ingratiate themselves around the campfires.”

The activists’ aim is to draw attention to the impact of Australia’s $60 billion-a-year coal industry on climate change, build popular support to halt its expansion and eventually end it.

”It is an industry with rapidly diminishing social license and, in fact, only last week AMP Capital banned coal from its responsible range of investments, joining the likes of armaments, gambling and pornography,” Solity says.

The companies retort that coal underpins economic prosperity and drastic security measures are required. It’s a workplace safety issue, they say, as the protesters trespass on the mining site, threaten to sabotage equipment and thwart building works.

But there’s something bigger at stake. It’s no coincidence that the spying campaign at Maules Creek began as both Idemitsu and Whitehaven began construction of their new mines.

The exposure of the black ops at Maules Creek and Boggabri inevitably raises questions about any role of government intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

ASIO, the AFP and NSW police all denied they had engaged private firms to infiltrate activist networks, although they do use them to monitor ”open source” material such as internet sites and social media.

As for deploying their own undercover officers to observe protesters, the situation becomes murkier.

ASIO director general David Irvine said the domestic spy organisation ”does not limit, or seek to limit, the right of persons to engage in lawful advocacy, protest or dissent”.

But in campaigns of civil disobedience, laws are often broken. Hundreds of protesters at Maules Creek have been arrested for offences such as trespass.

Does that mean protests like this qualify as ”unlawful” and therefore a legitimate target of scrutiny for ASIO or the AFP?

It seems it very well might, especially if it involves ”energy security”, according to a letter written by then attorney-general Robert McClelland to his colleague, resources minister Martin Ferguson, in 2009.

”While I recognise the right to protest, when actions jeopardise energy security and the delivery of essential services, it is important that measures are taken to prevent and deter unlawful activity,” McClelland says.

ASIO, he tells Ferguson, does monitor protest activity and provides intelligence reporting when there is ”actual, or potential, for violence”.

The AFP, he writes, ”continually monitors the activities of issues-motivated groups and individuals who may target establishments through direct action.”

Whether commercially funded or government endorsed, few doubt that the level of surveillance of activists, NGOs and whistleblowers has been as high, or more intrusive.
The Rich and the Corporate remain in their hundred-year fever visions of Bolsheviks taking their stuff - JackRiddler
User avatar
Luther Blissett
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:31 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:28 am

How El Niño will change the world's weather in 2014
With a 90% chance of the global weather phenomenon striking this year, impacts both devastating and beneficial will be felt from India to Peru

The global El Niño weather phenomenon, whose impacts cause global famines, floods – and even wars – now has a 90% chance of striking this year, according to the latest forecast released to the Guardian.

El Niño begins as a giant pool of warm water swelling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, that sets off a chain reaction of weather events around the world – some devastating and some beneficial.

India is expected to be the first to suffer, with weaker monsoon rains undermining the nation’s fragile food supply, followed by further scorching droughts in Australia and collapsing fisheries off South America. But some regions could benefit, in particular the US, where El Niño is seen as the “great wet hope” whose rains could break the searing drought in the west.

The knock-on effects can have impacts even more widely, from cutting global gold prices to making England’s World Cup footballers sweat a little more.

The latest El Niño prediction comes from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is considered one the most reliable of the 15 or so prediction centres around the world. “It is very much odds-on for an event,” said Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at ECMWF, who said 90% of their scenarios now deliver an El Niño. "The amount of warm water in the Pacific is now significant, perhaps the biggest since the 1997-98 event.” That El Niño was the biggest in a century, producing the hottest year on record at the time and major global impacts, including a mass die-off of corals.

“But what is very much unknowable at this stage is whether this year’s El Niño will be a small event, a moderate event – that’s most likely – or a really major event,” said Stockdale, adding the picture will become clearer in the next month or two. “It is which way the winds blow that determines what happens next and there is always a random element to the winds.”

The movement of hot, rain-bringing water to the western Pacific ramps up the risk of downpours in the nations flanking that side of the great ocean, while the normally damp eastern flank dries out. Governments, commodity traders, insurers and aid groups like the Red Cross and World Food Programme all monitor developments closely and water conservation and food stockpiling is already underway in some countries.

Professor Axel Timmermann, an oceanographer at the University of Hawaii, argues that a major El Niño is more likely than not, because of the specific pattern of winds and warm water being seen in the Pacific. “In the past, such alignments have always triggered strong El Niño events,” he said.

El Niño events occur every five years or so and peak in December, but the first, and potentially greatest, human impacts are felt in India. The reliance of its 1 billion-strong population on the monsoon, which usually sweeps up over the southern tip of the sub-continent around 1 June, has led its monitoring to be dubbed “the most important weather forecast in the world”. This year, it is has already got off to a delayed start, with the first week’s rains 40% below average.

“El Niño could be quite devastating for agriculture and the water supply in India,” said Dr Nick Klingaman, an El Niño expert at the University of Reading in the UK. Two-thirds of Indian farmland lacks irrigation and is reliant solely on rainfall, meaning even current official prediction of a 5% reduction in monsoon rains would have a major impact: a 10% fall is an official drought. Krishna Kumar, an Indian meteorologist and El Niño expert, said that even if the 2014 El Niño turns out not to be a very hot one, it can still have a major effect on the monsoon because it is the specific location of the warm Pacific water which is the critical factor. “The moderate El Niños of 2002 and 2009 impacted the monsoon in India much more greatly then the major 1997 event,” he said, adding that the biggest cut in rainfall is not usually felt until September.

Rana Kapoor, president of the Associated Chambers of Commerce of India, warned: “We recommend the government to immediately announce steps to control food inflation in view of the impending El Niño and the cascading negative affect it will have on crop production.” The impact on farmers means past monsoon failures have cost the nation $20bn (£12bn) in lost output and, because the Indian market dominates global gold prices, the cost of the precious metal has already fallen.

New research in May showed the global impact of El Niño events on food supplies, with corn, rice and wheat yield much lower than normal, although soybean harvests tend to rise. While food production has improved in the last year, El Niño is set to reverse that trend, according to Leo Abruzzese, global forecasting director for the Economist Intelligence Unit. “It may reduce agricultural output over the next few years, which could weigh on global food security”. Drought linked to the 2007 El Niño led to a surge in food prices in 2008 that sparked riots in countries as far afield as Egypt, Cameroon and Haiti.

After India, El Niño’s impacts roll eastwards and officials in Cebu, the Philippines’ second city, have already urged all households to save water to reduce the impact of the drier weather due to hit by the end June. In Malaysia, the national water authority is preparing for a dry spell of up to 18 months and calling for water rationing, while meteorologists have warned of forest fires.

The hot, dry skies will then track to heat-wracked Australia, where 2013 was already its hottest year on record and El Niño is threatening to turn the temperature up even further. Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, said: “El Niño is one of the largest influences on Australia’s climate. It’s why historically Australia has had one of the most variable climates on the planet.” Watkins said El Niño increases the chances of low rainfall in the country’s southern and most populous half and tends to deliver hotter years and higher extreme temperatures.

Brent Finlay, president of Australia’s National Farmers’ Federation, said he was hoping El Niño just does not happen. “We have farmers and graziers in New South Wales and Queensland who are in drought now, and so to have this prediction of a possible El Niño will be of grave concern.” Severe drought at any time could have “tragic” consequences on rural communities where he said some farmers had even taken their own lives, he said: “That is what drought does.”

However, on the opposite side of the Atlantic, in the US, El Niño holds out the prospect of relief for the parched western states and nowhere is more desperate for rain than California. The entire state is in severe or extreme drought, after receiving barely a quarter of its annual rainfall, and communities have been under water rations since March, which ordinarily would still be the rainy season. The result is a tinder box, with governor Jerry Brown warning the state faces the worst wildfire season on record.

A strong El Niño would bring rain, typically double the annual average in southern California. “I commonly refer to El Niño as the great wet hope,” said Bill Patzert, a climate scientist at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. “Everyone in the west has their fingers crossed because we are bone dry. We have had three of the four driest years in the west in recorded history. Dry land farmers and ranchers are definitely on their knees right now. We are running on reserves, we are pumping aquifers, and our reservoirs are at record lows.” El Niños also typically lead to wetter winters in Texas, and other parts of the south-west, which also depend on getting most of their rain in the winter months.

However, big El Niños like the 1997-98 event – what Patzert calls “godzillas” – are rare and forecasters at the US government’s climate prediction centre said on 5 June that time was running out for a significant El Niño to be set in train. A modest or small El Niño would have little impact on the drought, said Patzert, noting that the 2006-07 drought – the worst on record at the time – occurred during a weak El Niño year. Even a “godzilla” would not be enough on its own to bail California out, he said: “But it would be a fantastic down payment on drought relief.”

Strong El Niños also typically bring warmer winters to the northern US states, which would be a relief after last winter’s Arctic conditions.

El Niños also typically damp down hurricane activity. But Prof Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist at MIT, said even in an El Niño year a hurricane, given the right conditions, could still cause tremendous destruction. Hurricane Andrew, one of the deadliest and costliest in recent history, roared through Florida in 1992, which was an El Niño year. “It would be tragic if everyone let their guard down,” Emanuel said.

Elsewhere in the Americas, a careful watch is being kept in Peru, where the huge anchovy fishery has been wiped out by previous El Niños – it was Peruvian sailors who first named the phenomenon “the Christ child” because its peak occurs at Christmas. The 1997-98 El Niño slashed the catch by 80%, as the fish migrated away from the abnormally warm waters. Luis Icochea, a fisheries expert at the National Agrarian University in Lima, warned that the event this year is developing in a similar way.

Rodney Martínez, at Ecuador’s International El Niño Centre, said El Niño would affect the whole of south America, meaning heavy rainfall and floods in Ecuador, Peru, Chile and northern Argentina but potential drought relief in Chile and Bolivia. The early effects of El Niño in Brazil are expected to raise temperatures during the football World Cup.

But, despite better El Niño warnings nowadays, Martinez said many nations were worse prepared than in 1997: “In many cases the vulnerability has increased: more exposed population, more land degradation, river sedimentation, collapse of underground water sources, degradation of natural protection in riversides, badly designed infrastructure and lack of coordination and planning to cope with El Niño.”

Stockdale said other global impacts could be droughts in the Caribbean and southern Africa at the end of the year, and also in central Asia, although the precise impacts of each El Niño vary due to local climatic variations. Europe is the continent least affected by El Niño by virtue of being on the opposite side of the world.

However, in the tropics and sub-tropics, another deadly impact of El Niño is becoming better understood: its ability to spark civil wars. Solomon Hsiang, at Columbia University, New York, showed in 2011 that 50 of the 250 conflicts between 1950 and 2004 were triggered by the El Niño cycle, probably due to the loss of crops, jobs and the psychological effects of hotter weather.

Hsiang told the Guardian that, based on historical data, a Pacific warming of 0.8C is associated with a rise in the annual risk of conflict of 15%. The current forecasts indicate that this year’s warming will most probably lie between 0.5C and 1.5C. “Of course, conflicts may not occur just because the risk of conflict is higher, in the same way car accidents don’t always occur on rainy days when the risk of accident is higher,” Hsiang said. “But it is certainly a developing situation that we should keep track of and it would be excellent to have policy-makers and the public aware of the potential risk.”

Policymakers are likely also to feel the heat of El Niño in the negotiations towards a global deal to cut carbon emissions and tackle global warming, which must culminate in Paris in December 2015. Since the scorching year of 1998, the rate of global warming has slowed, with over 90% of the heat trapped by CO2 going into the oceans.

“A lot of energy that should have been in the atmosphere has gone into the Pacific,” said Kumar. “If El Niño does set in that could trigger the release of that heat and faster warming: that has been a major concern.” An El-Niño-boosted 2015 could well be the hottest year on record, according to Klingaman, just as nations have to agree a climate change deal.

“If 2014 turns out to be an El Niño year as currently forecast, increased public awareness of the dangers of human-induced climate change is likely to follow,” said Prof Michael Raupach, director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University. “However, it is very important that our policy responses do not wax and wane with El Niño.”

The link between global warming and El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, is not yet well understood by scientists. But a study published in January predicted a doubling of extreme El Niño events, as climate change ramps up.

Either way, adding the impacts of El Niño to the extreme weather already being driven by climate change increases the damage caused, said Stockdale: “El Niño can be the thing that pushes you over the edge. It will be in the years when you get a big El Niño when you feel the impact of climate change the most.”
The Rich and the Corporate remain in their hundred-year fever visions of Bolsheviks taking their stuff - JackRiddler
User avatar
Luther Blissett
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:31 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:50 pm

So much Arctic ice has melted that we need a new atlas

By Gwynn Guilford @sinoceros June 10, 2014

Image

It used to be wars, Communism and colonialism that kept atlas illustrators on their toes. These days, though, their biggest headache is global warming.

For instance, when the National Geographic Atlas of the World is published this coming September, its renderings of the ice that caps the Arctic will be starkly different from those in the last edition, published in 2010, reports National Geographic. That reflects a disquieting long-term trend of around 12% Arctic ice loss per decade since the late 1970s—a pace that’s picked up since 2007. This comparison from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, although not the one used by National Geographic, should give a sense of how much skimpier that Arctic ice cover has gotten:



But drawing Arctic ice isn’t as uncontroversial as you might think. A few years ago, the Times Atlas mistakenly suggested that the Greenland ice sheet had shrunk by 15% since 1999, which it later retracted. Even choices made by the National Geographic atlas geographers have elicited criticism.

First is the issue of which years to compare. Arctic ice trends vary wildly by year. The atlas geographers’ use of data from 2012—a freakishly low year—risks misleading readers, as Walt Meier, a scientists at NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences Lab, told NatGeo.

Then there’s the matter of which ice to illustrate.

Every winter, cold temperatures seal the Arctic under a sheet of ice. By late summer, though, the sun’s warmth has melted millions of square kilometers of that ice. Scientists refer to these two seasonal extremes as “total maximum sea ice cover,” measured in March, and “total minimum sea ice cover,” taken in September (that’s what’s in the YouTube above). Here’s how both measures in 2013 compared with those of 1980:

Image

There’s also a third crucial metric: “multiyear ice,” which is ice that has survived at least two summers without melting. This older ice is a vital buttress against faster melting and the rising sea levels that would result. Typically three to four meters (10 to 13 feet) thick, multiyear ice is harder to melt and reflects more sunlight than new ice does, keeping solar heat from warming surrounding seas, which would accelerate melting all the more.

Not long ago, multiyear blanketed the Arctic. But that older ice has receded at a much brisker clip than the young, thinner ice. Now just 7% of Arctic ice is at least five years old, half of what it was in 2007, and a quarter of what it was in the late 1980s.

Image

In order to become older ice, of course, younger ice has to stay firm right through the year. The “total minimum sea ice cover” is a measure of how much ice makes it through summer without melting. But the National Geographic atlas depicts the ice as it stands in March (“total maximum sea ice cover”), before a lot of it has melted, which NASA’s Meier says might mislead the public.

The atlas’s geographers, however, say that there’s only so much they can include before they confuse the reader. And they have a point; keeping the three metrics straight is tough. They also vary so widely that looking at one or two data points alone risks exaggerating the overall trend. And seen in aggregate, the long-term trend doesn’t need exaggeration: The yellow line below shows the sea ice extent in 1980, the black is the 1981-2010 average, and the brown is 2013. Even if you treat 2007 (blue line) and 2012 (dotted line) as outliers, that’s an alarming decrease.

Image

http://qz.com/218710/so-much-arctic-ice ... w-atlas/#/
User avatar
stillrobertpaulsen
 
Posts: 2414
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:43 pm
Location: Gone baby gone
Blog: View Blog (37)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Thu Jun 12, 2014 6:19 pm

Climate threat to America's 'king corn'

Heatwaves and water shortages could devastate US farmlands devoted to corn crop, report warns

Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent

Wednesday 11 June 2014 11.08 EDT

Image
A decimated corn crop in central Kansas, US. The $1.7tn corn industry is at grave risk from climate change. Photograph: Jim Reed/Corbis

The days of "king corn" could be numbered as climate change brings higher temperatures and water shortages to America's farmland, a new report warned on Wednesday.

Nearly one-third of US farmland is devoted to raising corn and the country produces about 40% of the world's corn crop. But the $1.7tn (£1tn) industry – the equivalent of Australia's GDP – is under threat from water shortages, heatwaves and unpredictable rainfall caused by climate change.

"Corn is an essential input to our economy, and climate change, water scarcity and pollution are a critical threat to that sector going forward," said Brooke Barton, director of the water programme at the Ceres green investor network and author of the report.

The report amplifies warnings earlier this year from United Nations climate scientists and the National Climate Assessment that America's agricultural industry – and specifically its corn crop – was at risk from the high temperatures and water shortages anticipated under climate change.

In the case of corn, however, there are potentially trillions at stake because the industry now touches on almost every aspect of the American economy.

Corn production has doubled over the past 20 years and on its own was worth $65bn last year. But corn supplies a vast spread of industries. The 45 largest companies in the corn production chain together account for about $1.7tn in earnings, the report said.

Some 40% of the crop now goes for production of ethanol. Another 35% of the crop is grown for animal feed, but corn is used across the economy.

"It is fed to the cattle that become Big Mac. It is in the ethanol that goes into the gasoline we buy," Barton said. "It's in the snackfoods that we buy, even in some of the plastics in the products we buy. It is in laundry detergents. It's everywhere."

But the crop carries a heavy environmental toll. Corn uses the most water for irrigation of any crop, and accounts for half of all fertiliser use.

Some of that corn is raised in areas experiencing water shortages because of over-use and recurring droughts, such as California's Central Valley or the high plains states of Kansas and Nebraska.

About 20% of corn production is in irrigated areas. Most of those areas, about 87%, are undergoing water shortages. Corn production is threatening dwindling groundwater reserves, the report said.

The heavy use of fertiliser also imposes costs. Fertiliser for corn production is the single largest cause of the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

About 10% of fertiliser used on corn ends up as run-off, polluting water supplies across the mid-west, the report said. It estimated some $420m in fertiliser was washed into the Gulf last year, depleting oxygen levels and killing off marine life.

The report goes on to urge farmers and food producers to work together to reduce those climate-related risks and the environmental costs of growing corn.

Recent studies have found corn at high risk from the higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and water shortages caused by climate change.

Corn plants are especially sensitive to heatwaves and drought. A report in Science last month found that growers were having more trouble than initially expected in adapting to hotter and drier conditions.

Over the years, farmers in the mid-west have taken advantage of new corn varieties that are more resistant to pests and have more water-resistant roots by planting corn plants closer together.

But the Science study found those densely planted fields were even more vulnerable to heat and water stress.

The scientists said growers in the mid-west could lose as much as 15% of their yield within the next 50 years.
User avatar
stillrobertpaulsen
 
Posts: 2414
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:43 pm
Location: Gone baby gone
Blog: View Blog (37)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Jerky » Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:21 am

I know, I know... it's the Weekly Standard. Still, some interesting data points to consider.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/ ... 94401.html

Personally, I'm not as doom-and-gloomy about AGW as I used to be. I don't know why, but I have a feeling it's all going to shake out for the best in the end, and a lot of the doom-and-gloomers are just experiencing end of life Apocalyptitis (def the case with Lovelock - "If I can't be around the see the world, then it might as well not freaking exist... and it WON'T I betcha! My Big Freakin' Brain SAYS so! Phooey on you!").

YOPJerky
User avatar
Jerky
 
Posts: 2240
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 6:28 pm
Location: Toronto, ON
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Ben D » Fri Jun 13, 2014 2:58 am

Hi Jerky...but like you...Lovelock also recanted on his CAGW alarmism....I was 'alarmist' about climate change

“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
There is That which was not born, nor created, nor evolved. If it were not so, there would never be any refuge from being born, or created, or evolving. That is the end of suffering. That is God**.

** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
User avatar
Ben D
 
Posts: 2005
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:10 pm
Location: Australia
Blog: View Blog (3)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Jerky » Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:23 am

Thanks for clearing that up for me, Ben.

All I know is, the massive list of dire predictions from ten and fifteen years ago about how incredibly fucking APOCALYPTIC shit was gonna be by... hmmm... right about NOW, is, at the very least, a huge freaking embarrassment to a great deal of AGW popularizers, if not the actual climate scientists, themselves (I'm not qualified to judge those individuals and their work).

YOPJ
User avatar
Jerky
 
Posts: 2240
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 6:28 pm
Location: Toronto, ON
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Ben D » Fri Jun 13, 2014 6:51 am

You are welcome Jerky.

Questioning the CAGW narrative can bring a bit of flak here though....
There is That which was not born, nor created, nor evolved. If it were not so, there would never be any refuge from being born, or created, or evolving. That is the end of suffering. That is God**.

** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
User avatar
Ben D
 
Posts: 2005
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:10 pm
Location: Australia
Blog: View Blog (3)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Hammer of Los » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:17 am

...
It is blindingly obvious that Rory is the one spewing invective.

It is against board rules.

Please be civil.

Personally, I think Rory should be banned.

Post.

Haste.
...
Hammer of Los
 
Posts: 3309
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2006 4:48 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby justdrew » Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:00 am

Jerky » 12 Jun 2014 22:21 wrote:Personally, I'm not as doom-and-gloomy about AGW as I used to be. I don't know why, but I have a feeling it's all going to shake out for the best in the end, and a lot of the doom-and-gloomers are just experiencing end of life Apocalyptitis (def the case with Lovelock - "If I can't be around the see the world, then it might as well not freaking exist... and it WON'T I betcha! My Big Freakin' Brain SAYS so! Phooey on you!").

YOPJerky


I often have the same feeling, but it's quite possible that's just denial/wishful-thinking too. It's certainly as beguiling a feeling as any sort of denial usually is.

It's probably too early to do anything too radical, but reducing CO2 output remains a wise move.
By 1964 there were 1.5 million mobile phone users in the US
User avatar
justdrew
 
Posts: 11966
Joined: Tue May 24, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: unknown
Blog: View Blog (11)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Rory » Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:20 am

Hammer of Los » Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:17 pm wrote:...
It is blindingly obvious that Rory is the one spewing invective.

It is against board rules.

Please be civil.

Personally, I think Rory should be banned.

Post.

Haste.
...


I love you too, dude.

:thumbsup
Rory
 
Posts: 1596
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:08 pm
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Luther Blissett » Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:55 am

I don't know, when I personally look around I see many examples of serious changes to ecosystems (including my own) which seem permanent or on their way to transitioning to a permanent state. Ocean acidification and methane release in particular seem like dire warning signs.

Sometimes it seems like alarmism gets revoked when individuals stop seeking this information out (because it absolutely must be sought). Not accusing Lovelock of this.
The Rich and the Corporate remain in their hundred-year fever visions of Bolsheviks taking their stuff - JackRiddler
User avatar
Luther Blissett
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:31 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Blog: View Blog (0)

Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:42 pm

Hammer of Los » Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:17 am wrote:...
It is blindingly obvious that Rory is the one spewing invective.

It is against board rules.

Please be civil.

Personally, I think Rory should be banned.

Post.

Haste.
...


You just had to poke a stick in that hornet's nest, didn't you? Couldn't rest easy with the fact that this thread, which was on the brink of being locked, had moved on from personal petty shit? You just had to call out a poster by name and place the finger of blame on them?

And then have the gall to ask for civility when for the past few fucking pages, things were pretty goddamn civil?!

The only thing "blindingly obvious" is your short-sighted hypocrisy. What about this board rule:

Please refrain from personal attacks, and keep arguments issue-based.

I can't think of a more personal attack than asking for someone to be banned. But I'm not going to hit alert on your post because I want to see if you're really ingenuous with your plea for "civility." Really the only civil thing to do is to issue a retraction. Please don't hide behind "well, other people on this thread have done it". If you want everyone else on this thread to take the high road, start with yourself.
User avatar
stillrobertpaulsen
 
Posts: 2414
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 2:43 pm
Location: Gone baby gone
Blog: View Blog (37)

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 155 guests