Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[PufPuf93]

For the USA only:

9-11 3.000

Vietnam 58,000

COVID19 100,000 and counting

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... 00000.html

[Nordic]

For the USA only:

9-11 3.000

Vietnam 58,000

COVID19 100,000 and counting

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... 00000.html

There are no legit numbers for the US.



https://mynorthwest.com/1889564/rantz-g ... us-deaths/

We actually have no idea how many people have died BECAUSE of the virus.

[JackRiddler]

That is a radically misleading statement.

Excess death is the difference from a baseline of how many people have died in given months in recent years. In NYC, for example, Mar 11 - May 16 2020 had about ~24,000 more deaths than an average of the same period in recent years, ~250% of the baseline, compared to an official C19 death count for the period of just ~20,000, suggesting an undercount of 4,000. (Compare, Sweden: 28% excess death, apparent undercount of just 100.) Most places studied for excess death suggest the total death toll from C19 is being undercounted. Something has to explain the difference this year, so either it's C19 or consequences related to C19 and the measures.

Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak
By Jin Wu, Allison McCann, Josh Katz and Elian Peltier
Updated May 19, 2020, 5:30 P.M. E.T.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

See main table a couple of screens down: "Where we found higher deaths than normal"

[Nordic]

I would never quote The NY Times about anything remotely important.

They’re proven liars and propagandists and war criminals.

Maybe for sports scores ...

[JackRiddler]

In other words, no answer on the substance.

Because there is none. 24,000 additional deaths in New York City, compared to the average of the same time of year over the past 20 years. Just lies in the New York Times.

Denial that there is a real death toll is the no-planes of C19. It's the fastest way to completely discredit any discussion about the actual lethality, the appropriateness and purpose of given measures, the disaster capitalist exploitation (that has the potential to kill more people), or the origins of the contagion.

[PufPuf93]

I would never quote The NY Times about anything remotely important.

They’re proven liars and propagandists and war criminals.

Maybe for sports scores ...

Agree the NY Times is in a general sense a propaganda rag but I like the graphics.

Also do not trust the numbers but the published numbers probably underestimate IMO.

For sure parties that do not give a whit about most humanity or the future other than their own are busy as bees doing everything they can to benefit but that does not mean the CV19 pandemic is not real.

Perhaps the threat will subside, but that just means the measures taken and luck (this time) are on the side of most humans.

My general perception is that there is some agenda or a conspiracy behind just about everything published in MSM. That is what the CIA does, a program since the CIAs conception; but now the CIA has more competition.

CV19 has exposed problems every bit as much as caused problems.

[PufPuf93]

Thank you JackR.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Is that 24K death count (for NYC) attributable to the standard (unreliable) method of assigning anyone with covid or any covid-like symptoms as a covid death, or is the 24K death count specific to covid as the sole or primary cause of death (if such a metric is even available)?

Of those 24K, are there figures that break down that total into age groups/comorbidities, etc?


My point is not that there won't be an excessive death count for the last few months compared to years prior, but what percentage of that count can be assigned to covid as the primary cause of death?

And, how much of the excessive death count takes into account deaths caused by:

A. hospitals that shifted most resources on treating covid-related patients while shutting down other ER/crisis wings/staff, hastening death for non-covid patients, or
B. Humans that opted not to go to hospitals, ER or urgent care facilities due to outright fear of being infected, exacerbating whatever non-covid illness/disease they had, avoiding necessary, and perhaps life-extending, treatments?

Largely rhetorical: haven't yet looked at the link(s), but will aim to answer these questions myself (if the figures are indeed available) when time allows.

[JackRiddler]

.

Is that 24K death count (for NYC) attributable to the standard (unreliable) method of assigning anyone with covid or any covid-like symptoms as a covid death,

No, stop there. It's excess deaths. That means number of deaths above the average for March 11-May 14 over the years since 2002, if I remember correctly (there's a longer article focusing on NYC only). That is death, all causes. Granularity is currently lacking but it will be available. It's more than 250% of the baseline average. The official five-borough C19 death toll for the same period is still given as 20,000, which suggests a possible undercount of C19 deaths. For all the stories about hospitals getting bounties let's not pretend there are not also major systemic incentives, political and economic, to undercount C19 deaths! There is no way to spin this as anything other than an exceptionally large death toll over a very short period. It's also ludicrous to attribute more than a small percentage to the effects of the anti-contagion measures -- a couple of anecdotes about a case here or there falsely diagnosed as C19 given in these smarmy videos don't account for that. But first things first, let's make sure this is understood as it should be after all these weeks: Real people, died, 24,000 more of them than the average for those 9 weeks in the last two decades in New York.

Start from the facts, you can still argue the measures are misguided, the lethality is exaggerated, the panic is intentionally stoked to get given political results, the economic crash is orchestrated as class warfare, plans were made in advance to exploit such a situation, it's not impossible the germ was engineered, etc. But let's not deny the reality of a contagion that is NOT just like the seasonal flu killing thousands of people and causing genuine fear whether fully justified or not.

.

[cptmarginal]

The article says that their analysis covered a period between Mar. 11 and May 16, and just in New York City rather than the whole state.

The relevant all-cause death count data for NYC can be found here:

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts ... -jte6/data

2019:

Code: Select all

1090+1036+1097+1038+1054+955+954+1008+1033 = 9,265

2020:

Code: Select all

1131+1399+2759+6027+7601+5594+3680+2245+1715 = 32,151

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Fair enough, JR.

In any event, you essentially captured the essence of my position (subject to change as more data points become available in the months ahead), in your last bit:

...you can still argue the measures are misguided, the lethality is exaggerated, the panic is intentionally stoked to get given political results, the economic crash is orchestrated as class warfare, plans were made in advance to exploit such a situation, it's not impossible the germ was engineered, etc. But let's not deny the reality of a contagion that is NOT just like the seasonal flu killing thousands of people and causing genuine fear whether fully justified or not.

[0_0]

a couple of anecdotes about a case here or there falsely diagnosed as C19 given in these smarmy videos

Just to be clear, when you say "smarmy videos" do you mean the one of Illinois Department of Public Health's director Dr. Ngozi Ezike where she says:

"If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death."

Or the one by Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, where she says:

"So, I think in this country we've taken a very liberal approach to mortality. And I think the reporting here has been pretty straightforward over the last five to six weeks. Prior to that when there wasn't testing in January and February that's a very different situation and unknown. There are other countries that if you had a preexisting condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem some countries are recording as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to market as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."

Or possibly the one by Minnesota Senator and Doctor Scott Jensen saying he received a seven-page document from the Minnesota Department of Health on how doctors should go about filling out a cause of death certificate which takes you to a CDC website that has recommendations on how to include COVID-19 as a diagnosis for someone who was never tested for COVID-19?

About possible other causes of excess mortality (where such is the case): is it really so ludicrous to suspect a contributing factor might be all non-covid related services basically being shutdown? The general panic and disarray? The untested and invasive treatments being used? The letting go of protocols? For example, chloroquine may help some but it is very dangerous to people with G6PD deficiency. The use of ventilators is controversial and possibly counterproductive as well.

[0_0]

Government says mouth-to-mouth resuscitation should not be administered during Covid-19 pandemic
Assistant Secretary-General in the Department of the Taoiseach Elizabeth Canavan says do not listen for breath sounds either.
By Digital Desk staff
Monday, May 18, 2020 - 03:31 PM

Mouth-to-mouth resuscitation should not be administered during the Covid-19 pandemic.

If someone collapses in a public space, they should only be given chest compressions.

The Government has issued guidance to say if a victim is suspected of having the coronavirus, a cloth should be placed over their mouth and nose.

Assistant Secretary-General in the Department of the Taoiseach Elizabeth Canavan says do not listen for breath sounds either.

"If a person is collapsed in a public place, do look for signs of breathing and signs of life. But don't listen or feel for breathing by placing your ear or cheek close to the person's mouth," she says.

"Dial 112 or 999 and ask for an ambulance. If Covid is suspected tell them that when you call."

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingn ... 00193.html

Ocean City lifeguards will not perform mouth-to-mouth resuscitation due to coronavirus
Nick Iannelli | @NickWTOP
May 22, 2020, 11:30 AM

As lifeguards return to duty for Memorial Day weekend in Ocean City, Maryland, they will have new equipment and new rules to follow due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Guards will have their temperature taken daily and asked a series of questions about whether they have any symptoms.

“Every employee every day will have a wellness check,” said Butch Arbin, captain of the Ocean City Beach Patrol.

Supervisors, who ride on all-terrain vehicles, will have additional equipment including gloves, a gown and a face shield. It is their job to step in when someone on the beach needs immediate help.

“In the case of a first aid situation, we will have somebody that has more protection than what a guard would have,” Arbin said.

During a normal year, supervisors would put on a protective mask and administer mouth-to-mouth resuscitation, but that will not happen now due to concerns about the coronavirus. Instead, they will also carry a “bag valve mask,” a hand-held device that can be used to help someone breathe and resuscitate them.

“This year, we are not doing mouth-to-mouth,” said Arbin.

https://wtop.com/maryland/2020/05/ocean ... ronavirus/

Scots mountain rescuers told to stop mouth-to-mouth resuscitation over coronavirus fears
The Cairngorm Mountain Rescue team said that it would perform chest compressions instead as they try to prevent the spread of Covid-19 among patients and staff.

Mountain rescue teams and many other community emergency responders are being advised not to perform mouth-to-mouth resuscitation over coronavirus fears.

Willie Anderson, leader of Cairngorm Mountain Rescue Team, said his members received the guidance last week.

"We will perform chest compressions - but not mouth to mouth. I believe that is the advice being followed by other services too," he said.

The charity Resuscitation Council UK said:"We are aware of the concerns regarding risk of transmission of Covid-19 (coronavirus), but wish to emphasise the crucial importance of doing CPR for the person in cardiac arrest.

"In the UK, almost 200 people a day will suffer a cardiac arrest out of hospital. When someone has a cardiac arrest, they are not breathing normally and their heart has stopped. With no treatment, this person will die, usually within a few minutes. Early CPR and defibrillation give them their best chance of survival."

It said that whenever CPR is carried out, particularly on an unknown victim, there is some risk of cross infection, associated particularly with giving rescue breaths.

The charity - whose courses annually trains over 135,000 healthcare professionals - issued a statement for anyone who is performing CPR/defibrillation in an out-of- hospital setting.

"Normally, this risk is very small and is set against the inevitability that a person in cardiac arrest will die if no assistance is given. The first things to do are shout for help and dial 999," it said.

"Because of the heightened awareness of the possibility that the victim may have Covid-19, Resuscitation Council UK offers this advice:

Recognise cardiac arrest by looking for the absence of signs of life and the absence of normal breathing.

(...)

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scot ... d-21704364

etc

[kelley]

as alluded to above these numbers games and etc lead down familiar paths of LIHOP and MIOP types of speculation

the 'no planes' analogy is in this respect uh um dead-on

[0_0]

It's dead-on in that it fulfills the same role of dismissing any questioning of the official narrative to lalaland, a thought-stopper. Another way of saying "end of discussion". When that discussion is very important. Especially when we're not able to have that discussion in real life because we are cut off from coworkers, friends and family in large parts of the world. Can't even come within 2 meters of people, even those inside of your government-approved bubble of max 4 persons, in for example Belgium and the UK, and that's being sold as an easing of the lockdown! So i think it is very important to be able to have an open discussion about how deadly and contagious this disease really is, especially as it is exactly this point which is used as justification of the draconian measures i think we all agree on are just not on. Just the nerve of dismissing arguments as "playing number games" when this whole lockdown was brought upon us on the basis of Imperial College's model that predicted half a million deaths in the UK alone, is a sight to behold really. I suppose having questions is disrespectful to the deceased as well (another parallel!). And questioning the hospital response is disrespectful to the hard working care-workers. And questioning the existence of WMD's disrespectful to our troops. Etc ad libitum.