Arctic Updates

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earth's natural cycles

Postby marmot » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:10 pm

Penguin wrote:Im a mire ecologist, so this is close to what I know most of.

Penguin! You're a mire ecologist? That's pretty cool..

So I trust your perspective on this then, should I (?) still be thinking and believing:

how any current (and possible long-term) trend toward planetary warm-up is but merely a natural expression of the earth's warming and cooling cycles.

cause that's what I believe..
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Postby peartreed » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:16 pm

Natural nitrus oxide and methane emissions indicate the Earth may end in a burst of laughing flatulence. That's a fitting kind of of cosmic comedy for the ultimate exit.
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Re: earth's natural cycles

Postby Penguin » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:03 pm

marmot wrote:
Penguin wrote:Im a mire ecologist, so this is close to what I know most of.

Penguin! You're a mire ecologist? That's pretty cool..

So I trust your perspective on this then, should I (?) still be thinking and believing:

how any current (and possible long-term) trend toward planetary warm-up is but merely a natural expression of the earth's warming and cooling cycles.

cause that's what I believe..


The planet should be heading towards an ice age right now...We should be experiencing cooling climate, according to the long term climate cycles. Instead, its getting warmer. There is no reasonable doubt that its caused by human effects on the atmosphere, and destruction of forests (the latter being the far worse issue!) (We know the climate over millions of years - from sediments, rock formations, trapped gases in rocks etc, and ice cores for thousands of years - those are very accurate)

People rarely stop to imagine the amount all the motors and burners and power plants in the world actually spew into the atmosphere...Try imagining just a million car motors on a large field, and imagine the plume raising...Then imagine a million cows..A million pigs...A pig farm can produce as much emissions as a large city.

Id wager my head on a silver plate that we humans have caused a rather grave disturbance on the planet. Not to forget that we are causing a massive extinction wave, right about now. Bigger than the one where dinosaurs died...One third of all species gone already, 2/3 to go!
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Postby marmot » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:21 pm

...
Last edited by marmot on Mon Oct 05, 2009 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jc denton » Thu Sep 04, 2008 3:42 pm

Idiot arctic kayakers ALREADY stuck

Hahaha.......

Oh Lordy.
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Postby Mx32 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 4:13 pm

jc denton,

I read that link and the comments that followed.

I'm not sure I understand the sarcasm and cynicism.



"Canada's artic ice shelf has 'massively' shrunk"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.j ... ice104.xml


Arctic ice is at its second-lowest level in history
http://chattahbox.com/science/2008/09/0 ... l-warming/


Northwest Passage northern route opens
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada ... ?id=767597
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confused by the proganda hype

Postby madeupname452 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 5:31 pm

I am cynical too.There is so much hype and propaganda.I am not a climate scientist.I read articles on teh internets.Some say warming some say cooling .some say more ice some say less.Everybody seems to have some emotionally polarised opinion on one side or the other.Sometimes the agenda seems obvious ,at others obscure.Is it a money-making tax imposing ,authoritarian enabling scam or the real consequences of the pollution and damage caused by industrial society and the capitalist economy?


http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=arctic+ice+increasing
Results : about 1,930,000


http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=arctic+ice+decreasing
Results : about 1,460,000
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Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Thu Sep 04, 2008 6:18 pm

19-square-mile ice sheet breaks loose in Canada
By CHARMAINE NORONHA – 1 day ago

TORONTO (AP) — A chunk of ice shelf nearly the size of Manhattan has broken away from Ellesmere Island in Canada's northern Arctic, another dramatic indication of how warmer temperatures are changing the polar frontier, scientists said Wednesday.

Derek Mueller, an Arctic ice shelf specialist at Trent University in Ontario, told The Associated Press that the 4,500-year-old Markham Ice Shelf separated in early August and the 19-square-mile shelf is now adrift in the Arctic Ocean.

"The Markham Ice Shelf was a big surprise because it suddenly disappeared. We went under cloud for a bit during our research and when the weather cleared up, all of a sudden there was no more ice shelf. It was a shocking event that underscores the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic," said Muller. Muller also said that two large sections of ice detached from the Serson Ice Shelf, shrinking that ice feature by 47 square miles — or 60 percent — and that the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf has also continued to break up, losing an additional eight square miles.

Muller reported last month that seven square miles of the 170-square-mile and 130-feet-thick Ward Hunt shelf had broken off. This comes on the heels of unusual cracks in a northern Greenland glacier, rapid melting of a southern Greenland glacier, and a near record loss for Arctic sea ice this summer. And earlier this year a 160-square mile chunk of an Antarctic ice shelf disintegrated.

"Reduced sea ice conditions and unusually high air temperatures have facilitated the ice shelf losses this summer," said Luke Copland, director of the Laboratory for Cryospheric Research at the University of Ottawa. "And extensive new cracks across remaining parts of the largest remaining ice shelf, the Ward Hunt, mean that it will continue to disintegrate in the coming years."

Formed by accumulating snow and freezing meltwater, ice shelves are large platforms of thick, ancient sea ice that float on the ocean's surface but are connected to land. Ellesmere Island was once entirely ringed by a single enormous ice shelf that broke up in the early 1900s. All that is left today are the four much smaller shelves that together cover little more than 299 square miles.

Martin Jeffries of the U.S. National Science Foundation and University of Alaska Fairbanks said in a statement Tuesday that the summer's ice shelf loss is equivalent to over three times the area of Manhattan, totaling 82 square miles — losses that have reduced Arctic Ocean ice cover to its second-biggest retreat since satellite measurements began 30 years ago.
"These changes are irreversible under the present climate and indicate that the environmental conditions that have kept these ice shelves in balance for thousands of years are no longer present," said Muller.

During the last century, when ice shelves would break off, thick sea ice would eventually reform in their place. "But "But today, warmer temperatures and a changing climate means there's no hope for regrowth. A scary scenario," said Muller. The loss of these ice shelves means that rare ecosystems that depend on them are on the brink of extinction, said Warwick Vincent, director of Laval University's Centre for Northern Studies and a researcher in the program ArcticNet.

"The Markham Ice Shelf had half the biomass for the entire Canadian Arctic Ice Shelf ecosystem as a habitat for cold, tolerant microbial life; algae that sit on top of the ice shelf and photosynthesis like plants would. Now that it's disappeared, we're looking at ecosystems on the verge of distinction,' said Muller.

Along with decimating ecosystems, drifting ice shelves and warmer temperatures that will cause further melting ice pose a hazard to populated shipping routes in the Arctic region — a phenomenon that Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper seems to welcome.

Harper announced last week that he plans to expand exploration of the region's known oil and mineral deposits, a possibility that has become more evident as a result of melting sea ice. It is the burning of oil and other fossil fuels that scientists say is the chief cause of manmade warming and melting ice.

Harper also said Canada would toughen reporting requirements for ships entering its waters in the Far North, where some of those territorial claims are disputed by the United States and other countries.


link
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Postby monster » Thu Sep 04, 2008 7:13 pm

Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered

Link

There's something rotten north of Denmark

By Steven Goddard

Just a few weeks ago, predictions of Arctic ice collapse were buzzing all over the internet. Some scientists were predicting that the "North Pole may be ice-free for first time this summer". Others predicted that the entire "polar ice cap would disappear this summer".

The Arctic melt season is nearly done for this year. The sun is now very low above the horizon and will set for the winter at the North Pole in five weeks. And none of these dire predictions have come to pass. Yet there is, however, something odd going on with the ice data.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado released an alarming graph on August 11, showing that Arctic ice was rapidly disappearing, back towards last year's record minimum. Their data shows Arctic sea ice extent only 10 per cent greater than this date in 2007, and the second lowest on record. Here's a smaller version of the graph:

Image

The problem is that this graph does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)

Image

The video below highlights the differences between those two dates. As you can see, ice has grown in nearly every direction since last summer - with a large increase in the area north of Siberia. Also note that the area around the Northwest Passage (west of Greenland) has seen a significant increase in ice. Some of the islands in the Canadian Archipelago are surrounded by more ice than they were during the summer of 1980.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKLiHWRaJU4

The 30 per cent increase was calculated by counting pixels which contain colors representing ice. This is a conservative calculation, because of the map projection used. As the ice expands away from the pole, each new pixel represents a larger area - so the net effect is that the calculated 30 per cent increase is actually on the low side.

So how did NSIDC calculate a 10 per cent increase over 2007? Their graph appears to disagree with the maps by a factor of three (10 per cent vs. 30 per cent) - hardly a trivial discrepancy.

What melts the Arctic?

The Arctic did not experience the meltdowns forecast by NSIDC and the Norwegian Polar Year Secretariat. It didn't even come close. Additionally, some current graphs and press releases from NSIDC seem less than conservative. There appears to be a consistent pattern of overstatement related to Arctic ice loss.

We know that Arctic summer ice extent is largely determined by variable oceanic and atmospheric currents such as the Arctic Oscillation. NASA claimed last summer that "not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming". The media tendency to knee-jerkingly blame everything on "global warming" makes for an easy story - but it is not based on solid science. ®

Bootnote

And what of the Antarctic? Down south, ice extent is well ahead of the recent average. Why isn't NSIDC making similarly high-profile press releases about the increase in Antarctic ice over the last 30 years?

The author, Steven Goddard, is not affiliated directly or indirectly with any energy industry, nor does he have any current affiliation with any university.
"I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline."
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Postby Penguin » Thu Sep 04, 2008 8:12 pm

Blah blah blah..
Ill say just one thing now, that you can quickly google up, since its late and Im tired.

Look up http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route
"Images from the NASA Aqua satellite revealed that the last ice blockage of the Northern Sea Route in the Laptev Sea had melted by late August 2008, the first time in 125,000 years that both the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route had been open simultaneously.[2]"

First time in 125000 years is something. And I have studied climate. My major is environment change and forest ecology.
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Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Thu Sep 04, 2008 10:29 pm

monster wrote:Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered

Link

There's something rotten north of Denmark

...snip


Monster,

Here is the rest of the article at your link.

"* Editor's note:

Walt Meier, research scientist at the NSIDC, has contacted us disputing the validity of Steven Goddard's methodology, and of his use of University of Illinois data to question the NSIDC's charts. We accept that these two data sets are not directly comparable, and that the University of Illinois data does not provide support for Goddard's charge that the NSIDC data is incorrect. We reproduce Walt Meier's response below. Walt Meier as provided further detail on the calculation of sea ice area and extent in the comments to this article:

The author asserts that NSIDC's estimate of a 10% increase in sea ice compared to the same time as last year is wrong. Mr. Goddard does his own analysis, based on images from the University of Illinois' Cryosphere Today web site, and comes up with a number of ~30%, three times larger than NSIDC's estimate. He appears to derive his estimate by simply counting pixels in an image. He recognizes that this results in an error due to the distortion by the map projection, but does so anyway. Such an approach is simply not valid.

The proper way to calculate a comparison of ice coverage is by actually weighting the pixels by their based on the map projection, which is exactly what NSIDC does. UI also does the same thing, in a plot right on the same page as where Mr Goddard obtained the images he uses for his own analysis:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... nt.365.jpg

The absolute numbers differ between the UI and NSIDC plots because UI is calculating ice area, while NSIDC is calculating ice extent, two different but related indicators of the state of the ice cover. However, both yield a consistent change between Aug. 12, 2007 and Aug. 11, 2008 – about a 10% increase.

Besides this significant error, the rest of the article consists almost entirely of misleading, irrelevant, or erroneous information about Arctic sea ice that add nothing to the understanding of the significant long-term decline that is being observed.

Steven Goddard writes: "Dr. Walt Meier at NSIDC has convinced me this week that their ice extent numbers are solid. So why the large discrepancy between their graphs and the UIUC maps? I went back and compared UIUC maps vs. NASA satellite photos from the same dates last summer. It turns out that the older UIUC maps had underrepresented the amount of low concentration ice in several regions of the Arctic. This summer, their maps do not have that same error. As a result, UIUC maps show a much greater increase in the amount of ice this year than does NSIDC. And thus the explanation of the discrepancy.

"it is clear that the NSIDC graph is correct, and that 2008 Arctic ice is barely 10% above last year - just as NSIDC had stated."
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Postby Penguin » Fri Sep 05, 2008 3:18 am

You know, the yearly level of the ice doesnt matter at all. It varies each and every year. But the whole area has been getting smaller all the time, year by year, and the ice has gotten thinner. Less snow packs into ice each year, as winter temperatures have been higher. Up in Lapland, palsa mires are becoming extinct too - thats mires that have large frozen cores, that never melt during the summer. Now they are all melting, since summers are longer and warmer, and winters warmer, on the average. Shit, I see that with my own bloody eyes. And theyve been there for thousands of years.

In Antarctica lots and lots of penguins have died this year, since its been raining water all the time. It hasnt rained water there in hundreds of years, at this time of year. The young penguins cant stand the rain - they freeze to death when they get wet before their fur grows.

Anomalous weather phenomena will increase as the systems state changes. That means very cold weather in other places, rain in others, snow in places where it hasnt snowed in ages. That ice increases one year, does not prove anything. All averages are out of the norm. As I said, climate should be cooling now, sunspots have stopped completely, which previously has meant a cooling immediately. This isnt happening, at best there is a slowing of the warming happening. Which would be a great thing, to give us a lil bit more time to act, unless idiots would use it to say that man has had no effect on the climate. And cite scientists that "currently have no affiliation with any university". And say that they have no understanding of climate, ecology, or any related subject. "I read it on the internets."
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Postby winston smith » Fri Sep 05, 2008 6:46 am

I like hearing from people with firsthand experience of an issue. Its the information I most trust. Thanks Penguin.
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Postby Jeff » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:29 am

Methane 'escaping' from Arctic sea bed

ITN - Tuesday, September 23 10:23 am

Scientists fear the rate of global warming could accelerate due to the escape of methane from beneath the Arctic seabed.

Huge methane deposits are rising to the surface as the Arctic region heats up, according to preliminary findings.

Researchers found massive stores of sub-sea methane in several areas across thousands of square miles of the Siberian continental shelf and observed the gas bubbling up from the sea floor through "chimneys", according to reports.

One of the expedition leaders, Orjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University in Sweden, said researchers had found "an extensive area of intense methane release".

Mr Gustafsson said: "At earlier sites we had found elevated levels of dissolved methane. Yesterday, for the first time, we documented a field where the release was so intense that the methane did not have time to dissolve into the seawater but was rising as methane bubbles to the sea surface. These 'methane chimneys' were documented on echo sounder and with seismic [instruments]."

The researchers believe escaping sub-sea methane - which is around 20 times more damaging than carbon dioxide - is connected to the recent rises in temperatures in the Arctic region.

He added: "The conventional thought has been that the permafrost 'lid' on the sub-sea sediments on the Siberian shelf should cap and hold the massive reservoirs of shallow methane deposits in place.

"The growing evidence for release of methane in this inaccessible region may suggest that the permafrost lid is starting to get perforated and thus leak methane. The permafrost now has small holes.

"We have found elevated levels of methane above the water surface and even more in the water just below. It is obvious that the source is the seabed."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/itn/20080923/t ... a1618.html
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Postby Cosmic Cowbell » Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:54 am

Arctic Autumn Temperature Hits Record High

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Autumn temperatures in the Arctic region are a record 5.0 degree Celsius (9.0 Fahrenheit) higher than normal due the melting of the ice cap, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report said Friday.

"Changes in the Arctic show a domino effect from multiple causes more clearly than in other regions," said NOAA oceanographer James Overland, lead author of the report titled 'The Arctic Report Card 2008' published on NOAA's website.

"It's a sensitive system and often reflects changes in relatively fast and dramatic ways," the scientist said.

As the ice cap over the Arctic melts due to global warming, more ocean water is exposed and heated by the sun's rays, the report said.

The warmer air and ocean water affect animal and plant life in the region and melt the permanent ice shelf, which in recent years has shrunk by some 38 cubic kilometers (9.1 cubic miles) and is the leading cause of the global rise of sea levels.

2007 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic region, followed closely by 2008. This continues a general Arctic-wide warming trend that began in the mid-1960s.

The Arctic Report Card is a NOAA initiative begun in 2006 to monitor evolving conditions in the Arctic region, including the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean water, animal and plant life, Greenland, and the general land mass.

In the 2008 report, atmosphere, sea ice and Greenland are coded red, indicating that the changes are strongly attributed to warming. Three other areas -- biology, ocean and land mass are coded yellow, indicating mixed signals.

In the 2007 report two areas were coded red -- atmosphere and sea ice, and the remaining four yellow.

This year, for the first time a scientific expedition was able to navigate the fabled Northwest Passage linking the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans along Arctic waters bordering Russia and North America because they were free of ice, the German institute Alfred Wegener announced Friday.

"The scientific research vessel Polarstern returned this morning from the Arctic to Bremerhaven (northern Germany). It was the first ship to have crossed the Northwest and Northeast passages" without having to break any ice, an institute spokesman told AFP.

The Arctic ice cap, which in August saw its largest seasonal melting since satellite observations began 30 years ago, completely disappeared in the Northwest and Northeast passages in September, the European Space Agency confirmed on October 7.

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