Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:26 pm

Jeez, barracuda, I'm starting to lose patience here. Now you're posting 'analysis' by Phalangists?

If you don't know who the Phalangists are, you might want to look them up on Wikipedia, for a start. OK?

What's next, posting articles from St*rmfr*nt for analysis involving African-Americans?

I'd invest the time and effort to take this piece of lying crap apart line by line but if you'd taken just a bit of trouble, you'd have easily seen what it is for yourself. One clue should have been the sectarian emphasis typical of the racist, right-wing fascist group in attributing support for Hizbullah to the "blind loyalties" of "the Shia" -- as though only Shi'a Muslims support them, an outright lie, and ignoring the fact that it is groups like the Kataeb and their partners, the Sunni Future Movement, which stridently demand sectarian loyalty and enmity towards those of other faiths as the appropriate basis for political choices and loyalties. You'd have also noticed that every single link in this article leads to other articles within this same website, just like MEMRI and similar disinfo websites that seek to trap readers within the airless confines of their own deranged and toxic world-view.

Barracuda, I think I've been very patient here and tried to the best of my ability to present as much hard information and sound logic in good faith because I assumed that you were similarly acting in good faith, even when you uncritically posted articles from well-known Mossad or Saudi or March 14 militant sites with very poor records for credibility. I simply attributed this to ignorance about the complicated political landscape in the Middle East, and perhaps to a certain tone-deafness, no insult intended. I'm certainly ignorant about many countries that I've only experienced second- or third-hand, there's nothing wrong with that, as long as I'm willing to recognize it.

Forgive me, but I'm starting to wonder why, if you are indeed acting in good faith, you insist on sourcing your posts exclusively from racist, fascist or other disreputable sites infamous for their cavalier attitude towards facts. They're hardly subtle and, as I said before, there are enough warning signs to make you at least check them out first. You're surely too smart to be that consistent and that "careless" if it's just because you don't know any better?

I'll look forward to your explanation.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:45 pm

What are you trying to say, Alice, that everyone in Lebanon supports Hezbollah unreservedly, and that there's absolutely no difference of opinion whatsoever on the STL? Get real.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:17 pm

barracuda wrote:What are you trying to say, Alice, that everyone in Lebanon supports Hezbollah unreservedly, and that there's absolutely no difference of opinion whatsoever on the STL? Get real.


Is that really what you understood from what I said?
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby Sounder » Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:29 pm

I gave this bout to Alice in the first round on a TKO. But I'm happy to have seen the referee allow the 'opponent' time to stand back up by doing a slow count. Still, watching a punch drunk fighter getting popped off on at will, while it has appeal to my prurient side, it must (or should be) be embarrassing to the fighter, the trainer and sponsors of this pathetically over-matched combatant.
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:58 pm

Alice wrote:Is that really what you understood from what I said?


What I'm hearing throughout this thread from you is that there's only one authentic point of view here, and that any position which doesn't implicate Israel is either uniformed, disinformation, or willful misunderstanding of Lebanese politics. I think there were motivations for Hariri's death on many sides of the political scene, including his support for 1559 and his interest in disarming Hezbollah. I'm not really any more impressed by the assertions of Israeli ability to manufacture millions of telecom records than I am by the feats of Wissam Eid, frankly.

I realise there will be no "convincing" you or some other posters here of that, so I'm not really posting in order to accomplish such a miracle. Rather, I'm honestly doing so out of my own interest in the investigation at this point. I'll be surprised if an indictment comes down which offers nothing but the telecom data as evidence. Unlike you, I'm not convinced yet of the culprit, and I don't see that much of a consensus in that regard in the Lebanese press, either. But if you wish to pretend there's only one side to this case, carry on.

In the end, what's most interesting to me will be the repercussions of the indictments should they occur. Saad Hariri is in Iran right now, working towards procurring an independant Lebanon probably trying to find a way out of difficulty when they do.

And Sounder, thanks for your kibbutzing - it's fascinating, really.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby Sounder » Sat Nov 27, 2010 9:36 pm

I don't think that fascinating is the word that applies here cuda, but hey you are free to chose your own words. I simply stated my opinion, and even though I know that I'm not objective, I am trying to be objective and your arguments and information strike me as being weak when compared to those of Alice.

But whatever, it's not like I'm unaware of your opinion as to the value of my input.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sat Nov 27, 2010 9:47 pm

barracuda wrote:What I'm hearing throughout this thread from you is that there's only one authentic point of view here, and that any position which doesn't implicate Israel is either uniformed, disinformation, or willful misunderstanding of Lebanese politics.


Well, you're hearing wrong. I'm saying that the STL has irrevocably lost all credibility because:

1) Within days of its formation, the STL's Detlev Mehlis publicly accused Syria before the tribunal had had a chance to conduct anything resembling a proper investigation;

2) Based on what turned out to be false witnesses, four innocent men, respected generals in the Lebanese Army, were sent to prison by the STL for nearly five years without charges or a trial, and after their release, were denied the right to see the evidence that had been used to imprison them, again by the STL;

3) The two Syrian false witnesses, convicted fraudster Mohammad al-Siddiq and dissident Hussam Taher Hussam, whose combined testimony comprised the bulk of the STL's initial conclusions that "Syria did it", have both said that they received lavish gifts and money in payment for their lying testimony. Hussam voluntarily returned to Syria and confessed to the Syrian police, while al-Siddiq escaped to France, where French police taped him boasting on the phone to family members that he was now "a millionaire" as a result of his false testimony to the STL. He is now in a French prison (last I heard).

Alternatively, one of the four innocent generals, Jamil al-Sayyed, has reported that he was openly threatened: if he did not provide a convenient Syrian scapegoat, then he himself would be accused. Although he turned over his recordings of telephone conversations with the STL official who threatened him, these were quietly buried by the STL;

4) The STL has displayed no interest in finding out who was bribing the false witnesses;

5) Only after mounting evidence that the STL had relied on perjured testimony by bribed witnesses had reached the public did the STL see fit to quietly release the four innocent men with no apology or restitution or even comment, raising serious questions about the STL's commitment to justice and accountability when its own members display such hypocrisy, lack of accountability and utter contempt for these principles by their own actions;

6) The evidence presented in Hassan Nasrallah's press conference, in which he methodically proved that Israel had a strong motive, means and opportunity to execute the assassination of Rafik Hariri, was persuasive enough to make Rafik Hariri's own son, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, demand that Israel be considered a prime suspect, despite the fact that there is no love lost (to say the least) between Hariri's Future Party and Hizbullah. Yet the STL still refused categorically to consider Israel as a suspect. It was Saad Hariri who contacted Hizbullah to warn them that the STL was planning to accuse Hizbullah, something he would not have done if he believed they were his father's killers;

7) The STL has demonstrated over and over its lack of objectivity and professionalism, not only in its record of relying unquestioningly on dubious "evidence" and false testimony, but in its propensity to make baseless public accusations and announcements, not to mention constant "leaks" to the media that have served to defame first Syria and now Hizbullah via sensational headlines in the absence of a proper case or formal charges;

8 ) A substantial portion of the STL's budget is paid by the United States, Israel's unconditional backer, the country which used its disproportionate power in the UN Security Council to prevent a ceasefire resolution during Israel's attack on Lebanon in 2006, explicitly to give Israel "more time", as civilians including the elderly and young men, women and children were indiscriminately being slaughtered and the country's civilian infrastructure was being destroyed;

9) Never in the history of the UN has a tribunal formed to investigate the murder of one man been given "Chapter 7" authorization, which authorizes a military attack against a sovereign UN member state to enforce its rulings, similarly to the UNSC resolutions that the US used to justify its bombing and invasion of Iraq. UN investigations of Israel's egregious war crimes and crimes against humanity, its slaughter of thousands of civilians in Lebanon and in Palestine, in contrast, are not only NOT authorized under "Chapter 7", they are routinely ignored or actively opposed by the same United States that so enthusiastically supports and finances the Hariri tribunal.

I'm also saying that while a case can be argued for just about anything, once all the available information is taken into account, Israel is a much more likely culprit than Hizbullah, based on "cui bono?", motive, means and opportunity.

1) Immediately upon the assassination of Rafik Hariri, a full-blown orange "Cedar Revolution" emerged. It had clearly been meticulously planned in advance, very well funded, coordinated by the public relations firm of Saatchi & Saatchi, and focused intensely on one objective: getting the Syrian military out of Lebanon. Rafik Hariri was far from being an enemy of Syria, on the contrary, although they had certainly had their disagreements. But the most immediate result of his assassination was to leave Lebanon without air defenses and without a strong army to defend it against the Israeli aggression which soon followed;

2) Hizbullah's enormous gains since 2005 were not because of the assassination, but in spite of it. It was Hizbullah's superb defense of Lebanon during Israel's murderous 2006 invasion that vastly increased its popular support in Lebanon and throughout the region, certainly not the Hariri assassination;

3) The Hizbullah and Lebanese Army Intelligence investigation of Israel's infiltration of Lebanon's telecommunications systems began at least as far back as 2006, when the infrastructure destroyed by Israel was being rebuilt and it was discovered that Israeli-linked firms, including Checkpoint and RSA were involved in setting up the new systems. The investigation collected enormous amounts of hard data about Israeli infiltration, espionage and sabotage of Lebanese telecommunications, augmented by that garnered during the capture and exposure of Israeli spies, many of whom worked in that sector.

4) That the STL's case appears to rely almost totally on this specific, highly corrupted sector suggests Israeli involvement far more than that of Hizbullah, which has its own, independent telephone system that the Israelis have for years tried unsuccessfully to infiltrate.

You know what? I'm the one who's feeling punch-drunk right now. It's the middle of the night, and I've said most of this before. I've said a lot of things that you choose to either ignore or misinterpret. As you should know by now, I actually appreciate a good argument with an opposing point of view. But only when the other side contributes solid information and sound logic, because then it's valuable, stimulating and informative for both sides. I didn't say you have to agree with me, but that you should not use sources that are disreputable or known to regularly disseminate false information to serve a racist or criminal agenda.

If your case is so weak that you can't defend it properly, then why do you bother defending it at all? Is it, like, an ego thing? If so, then maybe you should choose your cases, like your sources, more carefully.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby 82_28 » Sat Nov 27, 2010 10:03 pm

This is why I stick to the football threads. It's my American duty.

That said. I don't know even where to begin and am staying out of this puppy.

Just hoping to add a little levity.

CHECK OUT THE NFL THREAD! You won't find the cood there. He hates it.


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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sat Nov 27, 2010 11:06 pm

AlicetheKurious wrote:You know what? I'm the one who's feeling punch-drunk right now. It's the middle of the night, and I've said most of this before. I've said a lot of things that you choose to either ignore or misinterpret. As you should know by now, I actually appreciate a good argument with an opposing point of view. But only when the other side contributes solid information and sound logic, because then it's valuable, stimulating and informative for both sides. I didn't say you have to agree with me, but that you should not use sources that are disreputable or known to regularly disseminate false information to serve a racist or criminal agenda.


Yes, you are beginning to repeat yourself. We've been over this ground already. And it seems to me that there is not a source which you'd accept in the entire middle east as reputable should they not share your opinion on the matter. Though I have yet to encounter very much information whatsoever on this subject which is free from aspects of intrigue relating to agendas. So I'm sort of ignoring that.

But I believe it is you who are misreading me. I fail to see what I may have said that gives you the impression that I believed the STL is anything but primarily a tool of the US to sow further discord into a situation in which it correctly feels it has lost any measure of control. That much is obvious to even a novice like myself. Nonetheless, the decisions made by the STL might have huge effects on the entire region when and if the indictments occur.

This entire exercise is more than likely to backfire for the US - and Israel as well, inasmuch as they hope to benefit from the outcome - by using the results as an excuse for destabilising economic sanctions or war. And this is in large measure why it interests me, because what we are seeing here may in fact be the prelude and entree to war. But mostly because I, like many people, have simply become interested in who killed Hariri, be it Israel, Syria, Hezbollah, or whomever.

If my contributions to the thread annoy you, or make it impossible to discuss, my condolences and apologies. I wasn't really aware that I was making a "case" at all, for anything except the examination of other possibilities which I've encountered, something you seem to abhor for whatever reason. Please feel free to shoot these possibilities down or not, or ignore them or not, as you wish, as always. Bear in mind, though, that I am present on these threads more because I enjoy talking with you than any other reason, really, for any number of reasons, among them that I find your commentary interesting and valuable, even from my limited viewpoint and small experience in these issues.

Anyway, I thought this was interesting, from the OP...

Image

Captain Eid has an Oracle database handbook on his desk there.

Sounder wrote:But whatever, it's not like I'm unaware of your opinion as to the value of my input.


I was sincerely unaware that I had even formed an opinion regarding that at all.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sun Nov 28, 2010 3:36 am

Also, this comment from here:

41 - Diab Says:
As I indicated in my previous post the initial telecommunication analysis provided to the UN commission was not the work of the ISF and its information branch headed by wissam Al Hasan, former head of Harriri security but by the technical branch of the Lebanese army intelligence lead by Ghassan Tufaili under the command of General Raymond Azar,this branch had identified the assassins network and its details, the army concluded its investigation and submitted its findings to Mehlis by the end of April 2005.

http://al-akhbar.com/ar/node/201196

It should be noted that Raymond Azar the head of Lebanese army intelligence was imprisoned for about four years along with three other heads of the security branches in what was for all intents and purposes a coup de et ate on orders from Detliv Mhelis based on false testimony to the commission by a witness, one of a handful of false witnesses that accused Syria and the four generals / heads of the security apparatuses of murdering Harriri , these false witnesses were presented to the commission by Wissam Al Hasan, this is significant because the information branch was the semi private investigating arm of the harriri family and was supported by no less than half a dozen intelligence services from around the world, all of them had an interest if not in toppling the regime in Syria at least in having its cooperation on a number of issues including its porous borders with Iraq, its relation with Iran and its support of Hizballah .

The CBC innuendos about wissam Al Hasan’s loyalty to Harriri and the veiled suggestion that he was a Hizballah operative is a clever as opposed to intelligent attempt to deflect the single most pressing issue that would undermined the credibility of the STL and prove its political manipulation namely the false witness issue being pressed by Hizballah through the Lebanese government agenda and by Jameel Al Sayed ,an ex accused general in the Harriri murder ,through legal cases in Syria, France and at the Huge.

The way I see it ,Harriri Inc,and the guardians of the STL are trying to shore up their defenses by sacrificially presenting Wissam Al Hasan at least where it matters from their prospective, the minds of western public opinion, not as the loyal Harriri operative who manipulated witnesses and misled the UN investigation into accusing Syria of assassinating his boss on the behest of his new boss Saad Harriri and his dear Jeff for the benefit of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel, no, this Wissam Al Hasan who may been complicit and may had advanced knowledge of the planed assassination of Harriri had misled the UN investigation into accusing Syria on the behest of Hizballah to protect himself and those Hizballah elements presumably involved in the assassination.

The CBC in print and via the documentary report try to impress the above suggestion upon the reader/viewer’s mind by presenting the depth of Wissam Al Hasan connection to Hizballah through the hundreds of phone calls made and received by him to and from Hizballah officials.

Wissam Eid in the CBC report was the fluffy package that wrapped the message ,his work and role are cryptically presented as it is of no significance at least to the report, in reality, Eid work is based on the theory that if the eight closed cell network was the Harriri assassins “Business” network then the assassins must have had their own personal phones on them while on the site of the assassination, accordingly he came up with a set of phones that had communicated with phones that communicated with more phones that belonged to a Hizballah hospital.

Of interest with regard to Eid work is the visit to the Genealogical clinic by the STL investigators who according to the latest Lebanese media reports were after the medical record of Sayed Hasan Nasrallah’s daughter in order to gleam from her medical record the phone numbers belonging to her and her husband, the current commander of Hizballah, needless to say, not only the buck stopped there but in the Mhelis the STL investigators lost a USB reportedly detailing the tree of the investigation.

Also, Sayed Hasan Nasrallah in his press conference at which he presented the Israeli surveillance footage and suggested that Israel was involved in the assassination, he systematically presented the modus operandi of Israeli operatives involved in assassinations on Lebanese soil who admitted being present at the site of the assassinations within a 24 hours time window of the assassinations.

This is significant in that Nasrallah asserted at the same press conference that Hizballah have proven that a known Mossad agent, an ex Lebanese army commander named Ghassan El Jad currently living in Israel was at the site of the Harriri assassination the day before the event and that the cell phone network Eid Identified was in fact involved in El Jad surveillance not in the Harriri assassination as advanced by Eid theory.

Also in the same press conference in what seems to be a message to the STL, in response to a question from the press about the lines of communications between Saad Harriri and himself he responded that his lines are always open and anyone interested in communicating with me can give his MP Hajj Hasan Khalil a call as “I don’t use the phone”.


So Nasrallah was was saying the reason Eid tracked Hezbollah phones near the Hariri assassination team was that Hezbollah was engaged in surveillance of the Mossad, and using a cel network to do so.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Nov 28, 2010 5:21 am

barracuda wrote:Yes, you are beginning to repeat yourself. We've been over this ground already. And it seems to me that there is not a source which you'd accept in the entire middle east as reputable should they not share your opinion on the matter. Though I have yet to encounter very much information whatsoever on this subject which is free from aspects of intrigue relating to agendas. So I'm sort of ignoring that.


Don't, please. Maybe it was accidental that you happened to use sources like M*MRI, Str*tfor (which purvey Mossad disinfo) and Asharq al-Awsat (which is such a bad newspaper it's a joke, and which is used by the Mossad to "launder" disinfo so that it can be described as coming from an Arab newspaper), or N*wLebanon, a Phalangist site by people who are the closest thing to St*rmf*nters or right-wing zionists there are within the Arab world. If so, I'm sorry. These media sources are not useful, not only because of whom they represent, but because they have no reputation to uphold and cannot be held accountable for anything they print and therefore there is nothing to stop them from printing even bald-faced lies, which they frequently do. Hence their lack of credibility, except in trying to gauge the opinions or strategy of parties that run them. For example, Asharq al-Awsat is an excellent source for info on the Saudi royals' thinking and direction; it is also excellent for determining what the US/Israel want Arabs to think.

These extreme examples notwithstanding, it's a good idea to keep in mind that most media do represent one agenda or another. Although they won't necessarily print or broadcast lies, they might suppress information that doesn't serve their purposes and emphasize data that does. So the Washington Post might say one thing, but you'd have to look in Counterpunch, say, or any other progressive alternative source to find the 'other side' that the Washington Post won't acknowledge. There's nothing wrong with using either, but it's much better to use both. I shouldn't need to tell you this. You know it already when it comes to Western sources. The same principles apply to media in the Middle East.

barracuda wrote:If my contributions to the thread annoy you, or make it impossible to discuss, my condolences and apologies. I wasn't really aware that I was making a "case" at all, for anything except the examination of other possibilities which I've encountered, something you seem to abhor for whatever reason. Please feel free to shoot these possibilities down or not, or ignore them or not, as you wish, as always. Bear in mind, though, that I am present on these threads more because I enjoy talking with you than any other reason, really, for any number of reasons, among them that I find your commentary interesting and valuable, even from my limited viewpoint and small experience in these issues.


Sorry, maybe I overreacted. Imagine yourself in my place: you're discussing something with someone from the Middle East, and I keep using sources like St*rmfr*nt or R*nse or W*rld N*t Daily to base my arguments. Or even post analysis from FOX News about how Christians are persecuted in the US by the Muslim President Barack HUSSEIN Obama. Wouldn't you get slightly pissed off? And if you patiently explained why these sources aren't credible, and if I responded, "Well, clearly NO media that doesn't agree with you is credible in your view", wouldn't you ask yourself WTF?

That being said, I'm sorry again if I overreacted. I also enjoy discussing things with you, which is why I spend so much time doing it.

I'll get back to you soon about the other stuff, because duty calls.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Nov 28, 2010 9:25 am

barracuda wrote:Anyway, I thought this was interesting, from the OP...

Image

Captain Eid has an Oracle database handbook on his desk there.


It's not interesting at all. It certainly does not support the CBC Report's claim that Eid was a mathematical genius who all by hisself was able to out-compute the team of expert investigators of the STL and their "specialized software and hardware".

barracuda wrote:Also, this comment from here:

...This is significant in that Nasrallah asserted at the same press conference that Hizballah have proven that a known Mossad agent, an ex Lebanese army commander named Ghassan El Jad currently living in Israel was at the site of the Harriri assassination the day before the event and that the cell phone network Eid Identified was in fact involved in El Jad surveillance not in the Harriri assassination as advanced by Eid theory.


You know, I keep hearing that claim, that Hassan Nasrallah said that the so-called "red" cell phone network was used by Hizbullah operatives conducting surveillance on al-Jidd. I don't remember him saying that at all. Neither have I been able to locate any direct quote from the press conference or elsewhere in which he says it. We do know that Nasrallah has said that Hizbullah was watching al-Jidd very closely for years, and we also know that they'd kept the Lebanon's Internal Security Force under Wissam Hassan apprised of their progress and results, and presumably he knew details about the specific methods, as well.

The CBC Report's rather outrageous effort to implicate Wissam Hassan in the Hariri assassination, in my opinion, is designed to discredit him precisely because, as a Hariri loyalist very close to both Hariri father and son, his testimony about what he knows about the activities of Mossad agents over years, and about Hizbullah's investigations during that same period is TOO credible and revealing. It's not only about known Israeli agents at the crime scene, but it demonstrates that Hizbullah's activities are not solely designed to protect the Resistance but that it cooperated closely with the Lebanese government to defend Lebanon from Israeli sabotage and plots.

Saad Hariri has come out publicly to denounce the CBC Report's accusation against Wissam Hassan and to state that Hariri has full confidence and trust in him. Hariri's Future Movement Sunnis reacted with outrage against the CBC Report for making that accusation. That must have been galling to the CBC Report's mysterious sources.

I think that the forces behind the STL were not confident that they could sell its "findings" to the Lebanese people, who have proven rather less easy to fool in general than other people who have not been subjected to so many conspiracies over the decades. Hence the "Chapter 7" designation of the UN Security Council resolution that set up the STL, which basically says that even if the Lebanese people don't buy the conclusions of the STL, even if Hariri's own family don't believe that the STL's findings are credible, it doesn't matter. America can still impose Iraq-style economic sanctions or bomb the shit out of Lebanon to enforce what it calls "justice".
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sun Nov 28, 2010 2:05 pm

AlicetheKurious wrote:The same principles apply to media in the Middle East.


Of course. But that doesn't mean one can't discover ingredients of interest by reading the Washington Post, such as exactly what a certain segment of the ruling class may wish to be in the soup of the news cycle at any given time, while bearing in mind that it it propaganda.

So, for example, the MEMRI article and the Stratfor article both discuss an issue which has been somewhat of a constant in these discusssion since long before the Macdonald piece - the response of Hezbollah should indictments against their men be presented. Saad Hariri obviously has his concerns about this, or he wouldn't have offered to consider any Hezbollah indicted as a minor rogue faction, separate from the Hezbollah chain oof command, an "offer" which Narsallah made clear was unacceptable. And now it seems as if Hariri has approached the Supreme Leader of Iran for guidance or assistance in the matter, a move which can't sit too well with all members of his political alliance.

At least that's how I read it. In any case, the issue of Hezbollah's response to the indictments seems a real one, even if the melodramatic version told by the two sources above may be fictional. Asharq Alawsat apparently reported something to the effect that there was a response being planned ("cut the hand"), and this much seems accepted by most people discussing the issue, that Saad Hariri's government may be forced to either denounce the STL or face the political realities of not doing so. Unless, of course there are simply no political problems for Hezbollah no matter what happens here, which is entirely possible. They have a pretty solid base, to say the least.

Sorry, maybe I overreacted. Imagine yourself in my place: you're discussing something with someone from the Middle East, and I keep using sources like St*rmfr*nt or R*nse or W*rld N*t Daily to base my arguments. Or even post analysis from FOX News about how Christians are persecuted in the US by the Muslim President Barack HUSSEIN Obama. Wouldn't you get slightly pissed off? And if you patiently explained why these sources aren't credible, and if I responded, "Well, clearly NO media that doesn't agree with you is credible in your view", wouldn't you ask yourself WTF?


Even Fox News comes out with useful information. I understand that although Fox has a definite, and often ridiculous point of view, they also put forth those points for a reason. And so, I might say, "Of course that's Fox News..." and then proceed to discuss the issue at hand rather than simply give a lecture regarding Fox News and their problems. Particularly if the issue, like Hebollah's response to the STL, is clearly being published and discussed in outlets such as Ya Libnan or Asharq Alawsat.

Meaning: I still haven't heard your position on that particular aspect of this intrigue, if you have one. At the very least, what are the political repercussions for Saad Hariri should the indictments include Hezbollah members, if we can agree that Hebollah attempting to take over Lebanon is absurd?

AlicetheKurious wrote:t's not interesting at all. It certainly does not support the CBC Report's claim that Eid was a mathematical genius who all by hisself was able to out-compute the team of expert investigators of the STL and their "specialized software and hardware".


It seems like a hint, though, that Eid was using more than just an Excel spreadsheet to perform his analysis. Not that you can't do some amazing things with the database functions of Excel - you can. But Oracle is a different story.

You know, I keep hearing that claim, that Hassan Nasrallah said that the so-called "red" cell phone network was used by Hizbullah operatives conducting surveillance on al-Jidd. I don't remember him saying that at all. Neither have I been able to locate any direct quote from the press conference or elsewhere in which he says it. We do know that Nasrallah has said that Hizbullah was watching al-Jidd very closely for years, and we also know that they'd kept the Lebanon's Internal Security Force under Wissam Hassan apprised of their progress and results, and presumably he knew details about the specific methods, as well.


The only important reference to al-Jidd I can find in Nasrallah's speech is here:

    The last sign is something new even to us. In the past few weeks another evidence became available to us that one of the executive collaborators – Ghassan  Al Jid who had harbored an executive team which had to do with the assassination of Martyr Ghaleb Awali (or Martyr Ali Saleh) in his house – was present at the scene of the operation in St George on February 13th, 2005. Indeed we have gathered information about this collaborator since a period of time and submitted them to the Lebanese security bodies especially to the effect of his involvement in the assassination of Martyr Ghaleb Awali (or Martyr Ali Saleh) before having the data related to his presence in St. George area on February 13th, 2005. However this collaborator fled from Lebanon before the Lebanese security bodies arrest him.
     
    Report: The movement of spies that coincided with the assassination:
    One of the most dangerous executive collaborators – Ghassan Gorges Al Jid - was present at the crime scene on February 13th, 2005 i.e. one day before the assassination of Hariri.
    Name: Collaborator Ghassan Gorges Al Jid
    Nationality and date of birth: Lebanese – 1940.
    An Israeli collaborator who started collaboration in the early 90s.
    He fled Lebanon in 2009.
    His security role: Receiving and evacuating Israeli intelligence members at the Lebanese shores and the territorial borders. Most of these members enter stealthily to execute logistic executive missions such as transferring bombs and black bags.
    He also partook in several security missions.
    Most prominent logistic activities: On Wednesday March 24th, 2004, at night an Israeli group which consists of two security officers at least entered the Lebanese territories through the sea at Jiyeh shore where it stayed for fifty hours in Mount Liban accompanied with the above mentioned collaborator.
    On December 12th, 2004 he partook in assassinating martyr Ghaleb Awali through transporting the executive group to the location of the operation then evacuating them from there after the event.
    The file of the above mentioned collaborator was submitted to the security bodies in 2006 but he fled before being arrested in 2009.
     

Which doesn't mention the "red" network at all.

I think that the forces behind the STL were not confident that they could sell its "findings" to the Lebanese people, who have proven rather less easy to fool in general than other people who have not been subjected to so many conspiracies over the decades. Hence the "Chapter 7" designation of the UN Security Council resolution that set up the STL, which basically says that even if the Lebanese people don't buy the conclusions of the STL, even if Hariri's own family don't believe that the STL's findings are credible, it doesn't matter. America can still impose Iraq-style economic sanctions or bomb the shit out of Lebanon to enforce what it calls "justice".


If the indictments are weak, or based solely upon circumstantial evidence, Hariri can denounce them more easily. I don't really expect the US itself to do much of anything militarily if Hariri somehow is able to satisfy the Sauds, the Syrians and the Iranians with his actions regarding the STL, and vis-a-vis Hezbollah. Maybe economic sanctions. Like Nasrallah, I might be looking south instead. In which case the assistance of Iran will be invaluable.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Nov 28, 2010 7:12 pm

I just finished watching today's speech by Hassan Nasrallah. The first half was great but not very relevant to this thread. In the second half he covered a lot of the things we've discussed here, including the unprofessional conduct of the STL and its violations of basic internationally-accepted standards of judicial fairness, including the use of secret information, unidentified witnesses and signed accusations in writing as opposed to witnesses appearing in person, among other things, all of which represent serious violations of Lebanon's own laws and constitution. He also mentioned recent statements by high-level Israelis that they had "cooperated with" or "coordinated with" the STL and asked why, given the facts that had been exposed so far, the STL was so insistently refusing to even consider Israel as a suspect, ignoring real evidence against Israel while consistently relying on false evidence against first Syria and then Hizbullah.

He talked a lot about the findings of the "national" team representing the Lebanese Ministry of Telecommunications, Army Intelligence, Internal Security, Hizbullah Intelligence and others that investigated Israeli infiltration and sabotage of Lebanon's telecommunications networks. It was quite fascinating, as he had asked the team to provide him a point-by-point summary of exactly what this sabotage entailed, and he read out each item and explained it or commented on it.

Among other things, he said that they had hard evidence that Israel was not only monitoring all phone calls and using the cell-phones as bugs that would pick up any conversations in the area surrounding cell phones, but that it had cloned SIM cards and invented artificial links between fake phone calls and targeted individuals so that the phones' owners would be made to seem as though they were miles away from where they physically were. He said that the team's findings, including physical evidence, were available to any agency that wished to verify them, including the STL.

It was a long speech, over an hour and a half, and very interesting. But one thing that struck me was the part near the end, when he assured listeners that if they want to know everything about the evidence upon which the STL will base their indictment, it is all in the articles in Le Figaro, Der Spiegel and the CBC. I have never known him to make such a categorical statement without subsequent events confirming it, so I'd put my money on this.

You might recall that incident at the ob-gyn clinic used by many female relatives of Hizbullah cadres a couple of weeks ago, when the STL showed up flashing UN credentials, demanding all the medical files, and a crowd of furious women attacked them and drove them away, but not before seizing a briefcase and a laptop and some other equipment including cellphones with a lot of interesting phone numbers on them. It's a good bet that at this point Hizbullah knows as much about the STL's case as the STL does.

As for your question about how Hizbullah will react to the indictment, Nasrallah made it very clear that once the indictments are announced, it will be too late to react, because these indictments should not be seen in isolation but as the signal for a series of well-planned and interlinked hostile measures that will be immediately launched against Lebanon as a whole. Instead, he very strongly emphasized that those who care about Lebanon should support the current meetings between Saudi Arabia and Syria, to which he gave a very high priority and about which he expressed great optimism. Secondly, Lebanese should rally together to defend their country's sovereignty and its constitution from Lebanon's proven enemies and their instruments like the STL, which represent serious violations of both.

In other words, he made it clear that Hizbullah's efforts were intensively focused on the time left before the indictments, however long or short that might be. From what I understood, his priority is to ensure that by the time the indictments are released, the people of Lebanon will be sufficiently unified and the country will have consolidated all its internal and external defenses: legal, political, economic, geo-strategic and military, to ward off any foreign aggression.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Mon Nov 29, 2010 6:47 am

An-Nahar's online news service posts the reaction of Hariri's Future Party (Mostaqbal) to Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah's speech yesterday:

    Mustaqbal Sources Commenting on Nasrallah Speech: One Cannot React to Anonymous Indictment
    Beirut, 29 Nov 10, 10:30

    Mustaqbal sources, commenting on Sunday's speech by Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, believed no one could react to an "anonymous" indictment.


    "We cannot judge an indictment in advance since we are not familiar with the content," one source told As-Safir newspaper in remarks published Monday.

    "If Mr. Nasrallah was aware of the details, as he hinted during his speech, this does not apply to us," he added.

    The sources hailed Nasrallah for speaking in a "calm tone," adding that they share his desire to avoid a confrontation.

    The sources said they also support Nasrallah's call for a "quiet" follow-up on this issue in a climate of stability. Link
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