Black Box OBL

[norton ash]

Stagger Lee and Guillame Ponce de Leon. I'm told Han drew first. Oral feck.

[JackRiddler]

Thanks PW!

Hi bks, I started this thread because I think a lot of people are wrong and I wanted to be wrong, too. It's easy to be wrong, or to think you're right anyway, when the facts are black-boxed. Just trying to construct a possible best guess here. I'll be content to see my initial ideas demolished, if they don't hold up.

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The combination of stories over the last week has changed the dynamics of the Obama administration. It has as good as erased two years worth of Tea Party demonization of him as not-American and not-the-President, and also left all Republican challengers exposed as dwarves. Elections are never too far away for the politicians to start winning them. I don't know if you noticed that the Republicans have also dropped the Ryan budget. Watch them seek to accomodate the idea of an Obama second term (and try to win seats anyway).

However, there is the possibility that key minds within the Pentagon-CIA really do see the military overstretch, the loss of proxy states, the fact that they can bomb everything but control less and less, the financial and fiscal crises brought on by the wars. Maybe they're actually ready to cut their losses, start scaling back on the neocon fantasy of dominance -- it won't be justice, or what we want, or enough to avert disaster. Maybe they're actually ready to declare victory, scale back a bit... and remain the dominant institution within the government anyway.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/05/06/o ... n-planned/

Osama bin Laden’s death may end Afghanistan war sooner than planned


By Stephen C. Webster
Friday, May 6th, 2011 -- 10:15 am


Word from the Obama administration is that with al Qaeda spiritual leader Osama bin Laden dead, U.S. forces may now have found the fast-track to exit the Afghan occupation.

It won't be easy, and it will require more than just political capital in the U.S., but unnamed officials tell The Washington Post's Rajiv Chandrasekaran that, with a negotiated settlement between America and the Taliban, the Afghan war's "endgame" will be nigh.

On one key front, the president can now put negotiators at the table with Taliban forces without being criticized for "negotiating with terrorists," Chandrasekaran noted. On another, Taliban faction leader Mohammad Omar will likely be under tremendous pressure to end his alliance with al Qaeda, breaking another key barrier to U.S. withdrawal.

"Bin Laden’s death is the beginning of the endgame in Afghanistan," an unnamed senior official reportedly said. "It changes everything."

That's likely to be music to the ears of many progressives -- and even some Republicans -- who've long hounded President Obama to pull U.S. forces out of the war-torn country.

"In the wake of Osama Bin Laden’s death, now is the time to shift toward the swift, safe, and responsible withdrawal of U.S. troops and military contractors from Afghanistan," read a letter signed by House Progressive Caucus earlier this week.

"We are hopeful that Osama Bin Laden's death will offer comfort to the families of the victims of unconscionable attacks on innocent life that have occurred throughout the world and on 9/11," they wrote, asking the president to support a "near-term and significant drawdown" of troops starting in July.
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Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), similarly, joined with Reps. Ron Paul (R-TX) and Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) last month to support a resolution that would bring the troops home. It failed 321-93. His words, however, gained greater influence after bin Laden's death.

In an exclusive interview with Raw Story, Rep. Jones said he'd support an immediate declaration that America has won the war on terror.

"We could declare victory today," he said. "We have eliminated the leader of al Qaeda, bin Laden. He's now dead. So let's declare victory and start bringing our troops home."

Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), who represents one of the districts most affected by the attacks of Sept. 11, 2011, said he too supports a declaration of victory and withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“This, I hope, will now give us the impetus for withdrawing our troops from Afghanistan, for which there is very little use that I can see for them remaining there,” he told Fox 5 NYC earlier this week.

[8bitagent]

2. Is there ANYWHERE in the house that resembles the bin Laden videos, like the bizarre one from 2007? If not, than it's probably a fake. And why have all the bin Laden fakes been so bad?
Yet the Zawahiri videos look crisp, higher production? Where is that mansion book study Zawahiri is in?

I'll try that one. I'll say Z is for real and cares about his production values. Who says Zawahiri has talked to Bin Ladin in the last 10 years? Would he announce it if he hadn't, and discredit his movement? AQ is a decentralized phenomenon, where any spook center can walk in and set up a phony franchise and the rest will never know. The OBL videos may look so fake as part of the routine: hairy ugly crazy man with bad lighting talks about bad corporations like Michael Moore and says, Death to America, read Chomsky, vote for Kerry!

Well we just got our answer

Videos of bin Laden in and outside the compound coming out:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05 ... ed-public/

At this point, I'm willing to concede my original guess from a few years back; and that is that he was in an ISI safehouse being kept alive til the globalists need to take him out.
Sy Hersh did a good article in 2002 about "the getaway" from tora bora, and its clear the ISI helped fly or truck bin Laden and others out in late 2001 as many of us suspected. But for whom?
Clearly the ISI has been allowed to, if not instructed to do all this

Truth is so subjective. Did the towers collapse or implode? If Ramzi Yousef dreamed up the 9/11 plot on his laptop, than is "al Qaeda" truly responsible or is this a lie too?
What if the neocons aren't aware they were involved as truthers say, and in some odd way really were paranoid about Islamists as much as they ran the 9/11 tragedy for all its worth?
Why hasnt the US gone after the people who financed bin Laden?

All the major al Qaeda attacks appear to have been facilitated by intelligence agencies. US government officials protected the hijackers. Peter Lance finds it odd the '98 embassy attacks weren't prevented. US intelligence was on to the Yemen hub before the Cole attack or 9/11.

Of course, and it's funny...I consider Peter Lance one of the truth movement's best asset as much as they mutually reject eachother.

Many truth researchers gloss over the 93-98 period of bin Laden and al Qaeda, which is quite revealing. Like how the FBI covered for Saudi involvement in the 1996 Khobar barracks bombing, and made it look like Iran did it.

[8bitagent]

And here it begins!

Us Demands ISI agents who sheltered bin Laden
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42939442/ns ... ork_times/

Proof bin Laden lived at the compound comes in form of many videos made inside
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05 ... ed-public/

Anwar Awlaki, "new head of al Qaeda", survived drone strike in Yemen
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42937747/ns ... tn_africa/

I'm curious as to why do you think now the right time to cash in these chips? We're 18 months away from an election, and any short-term, mojo-fueled gains in the dollar or equity markets will probably dry up in a couple of weeks.

I don't think it's about short term poll gains nor the 2012 election. If this had happened in October 2012, not a single human being on the planet(since "October Surprise" is mainstream knowledge) would
buy it as a coincidence in timing.

I really have to think this gambit is about isolating Pakistan, going to the next stage in "counter terrorism" and war, and wrapping up their OBL saga so they can bring in the next boogeyman.
Already they've groomed Anwar Awlaki as the next big cheese(problematic as researchers know he's been protected intelligence for ages)

[8bitagent]

Also JK is right, so much information wrt pakistan and this still mega hot OBL compound story are pouring in, devouring previous reports and circling back that it's good to have a separate thread without all the noise...though, I also like the news.

I feel bad criticizing fellow truthseekers, but I wonder if we've been intentionally led down the path of disinfo with the "bin Laden died in 2001" and "Flight 77 didnt hit the Pentagon" theories.

[8bitagent]

Ha, I knew the kidney failure was a hoax all along:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42934673/ns ... bin_laden/

You know...I'm starting to wonder how much of these "facts" are fake disinfo put out by the PTB themselves

- Osama had kidney failure

- Osama died in 2001

- "Tim Osman"

- Osama met with a CIA agent in Dubai

- Osama was in a hospital on 9/11

- ISI gave Atta $100,000

Who knows what to believe anymore really.

[JackRiddler]

Ha, I knew the kidney failure was a hoax all along:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42934673/ns ... bin_laden/

What in the world would make you believe that story over the other ones? Why would any "secrets of the compound" claims carry weight with you after the firefight and the human shield and the fictional war-dog involvement? (I'm editing just to add my favorite laugh line: burial at sea!) The right attitude from that point is to provisionalize all claims, and let nothing go without context. If this was a Vegas game, you could bet straight against all claims being true and win at least 80 to 90 percent of the time.

Here's the relevant passage:

Reilly reviewed a list obtained by NBC News from Pakistani sources of nearly a dozen drugs found in the aftermath of the U.S. killing of the 9/11 terror mastermind on Sunday in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The medications provide some insight into ailments of the people living at the compound, but show no evidence of serious health conditions, such as the kidney failure rumored to afflict bin Laden.

“Quite honestly, there’s nothing here that indicates a long-term, chronic condition,” Reilly said.

The listed medications included drugs to ease the symptoms of stomach problems, such as ulcers and gastric reflux, Reilly said. A drug listed as Grucid, an Indian version of a drug sold in the U.S. as omeprazole, is used for that purpose, Reilly said. The list also includes something simply called “ulcer capsule.”

"A list obtained by NBC News from Pakistani sources of nearly a dozen drugs." "Pakistani sources" gave NBC "a list" and a doctor can't find a renal-related drug on the list! At last, definitive disproof of the kidney myth! In the new Wikileaks mode of giving original sources, they even print the list of drugs at the bottom of the story. Wowza.

Having read and weighed their respective books on the US and Islamist terrorism, I am far more inclined to believe Richard Labeviere (of the Dubai clinic story) than Lawrence Wright (the official go-to guy for Al Qaeda legendry, and co-author of the 1996 movie, The Siege).

.

Nationalist Pentagon Radio woke me up this morning. (How did that happen? What idiot sets the alarm to them?!) First, a total hagiography of Alec Station (RIP). Hundreds of young dedicated patriotic analysts spent the many years constructing scenarios of where OBL might be, with what hand he might brush his teeth and where he therefore buys his toothpaste, etc. etc. No clue that by the design of such offices, only a handful of bosses to these analysts would ever be privy to the highest classifications and might actually know things the rest don't, or be able to put together a full picture, while the well-paid college kid grunts who need fear no combat dance and dance in the faith. The tone was indistinguishable from a report on the sacrifices of soldiers in the field, a daily NPR specialty.

Soon after, Wright was on to pass speculation that OBL in his compound must have enjoyed ISI protection. Therefore we must reconsider those Pakistani aid packages. (By implication: This money never seems to buy relationships or influence in that army; it apparently just gets shoveled in without a further thought and they keep double-crossing us. Damn them. Why are we so stupid and they so mean?! This is an inevitable implication that stays implied only, not just because it's ridiculous, but also because it contradicts the earlier stuff about dedicated US spies doing their duty, etc.)

Based on a set of information shards about the alleged OBL location and operation, Wright logically posits the existence of coordinated Pakistani group action to deceive the world, but none of this is "conspiracy theory," heaven forefend. Only if he were to follow this logic to also positing USA protection of the ISI protection of OBL would it become crazy talk.

Then I missed what the next piece was about, but heard talk of blasts and horror and people dying in some bombing, I believe, and the grief of a father who lost his daughter in a triage decision. A perfectly packaged propaganda combination.

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There was more, not directly relevant, but bears mentioning in drawing the medieval societal context that makes the mythologizing possible and makes Wright look like a "liberal." Did you know the NRA just got passage of a bill in Florida that bans pediatricians from asking parents if they have a gun in the house, or from giving safety tips on how to store the gun and ammo to prevent child death from unexpected bullet syndrome? Doctors (so the NRA saith) have an anti-gun agenda, and it's none of their damn business wheres we keeps our ammos. Also, a bunch of the May 21st Christian apocalyptists are praying that they're no longer alive on May 22, because that would mean they missed the rapture! One of them who's "crunched the numbers" (!) on the Bible code was interviewed at his job, still selling... life insurance. He'll be selling policies on May 20th, then await the rapture on the 21st. I think I got the date wrong by a day. Could be costly for me, because not believing this stuff is itself already a reason you're going to hell, as one of them explained. Another one said soon after May 22, God would be destroying the whole universe. (He won't, but perhaps we should put in a special request in our bedside prayers that he at least destroy the "mainstream" media, including, but please not limited to, NPR?)

.

[2012 Countdown]

Great all encompassing synopsis here of where we stand in the saga by Mr. Riddler.
Thanks.

ps- It would also seem a good place to cash in on the OBL death now as piggybacking on slaying the birther silliness. As has already been mentioned, any counter claims or doubts on the OBL storyline results in the conflation by defenders with moon landing denialists. BTW, did you guys see the Bill Richardson statement?

Bill Richardson: Killing bin Laden Means Obama Can Pass a Climate Bill

A BOLD CALL — Also at the gala was former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who said he thinks Osama bin Laden’s death might give him Obama enough political power to pass a climate bill. Either way, he called on the president to reengage on the climate debate, and cautioned environmentalists that they couldn’t afford to wait for a friendlier Congress: “You know if we do that, we’re doomed,” he said.

http://www.nationalreview.com/planet-go ... g-pollowit

pps- I post this National Review article not as agreement but only to cite a source. I might be all for a climate bill, but using Osama's death as cache' to get it, seems ludicrous. The fact remains, people are more than willing to offer ways in which Obama can 'cash in'.

[crikkett]

Phoney multi-volume sets of fancy-bound gilt-edged display books meant to evoke the cultured evidence of a traditional classical educational setting in the background are SOP for Al-Qaeda photo-ops.

"Phoney"?

[JackRiddler]

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Damn this is easy: Here come the first captured videos, including the mad hound watching himself on TV and, oh goodie, yet another new segment of the same video from 2004 that was later claimed to also be from 2007.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162- ... 03543.html

No audio. It was buried at sea.

[barracuda]

Phoney multi-volume sets of fancy-bound gilt-edged display books meant to evoke the cultured evidence of a traditional classical educational setting in the background are SOP for Al-Qaeda photo-ops.

"Phoney"?

[Project Willow]

^^

Inside this attaché case is irrefutable evidence that what I'm telling you is true.

...........

I should apologize for being silly last night, even though my post reflects my opinion I offered it in about as useful a form as that nationalistic fellow riding his ATV around his yard shooting off his gun.

...........

I would guess that a portion of the why now question is related to what happened in Wisconsin. Just over the past 4 or 5 months I observed my liberal friends beginning to notice the Wall Street tarnish on the Obama brand and this trend was ever more increasing in the left/liberal press as well. Immediately upon the Osama death announcement many friends snapped back into blind obedience. It was rather disturbing to watch.

[JackRiddler]

I would guess that a portion of the why now question is related to what happened in Wisconsin. Just over the past 4 or 5 months I observed my liberal friends beginning to notice the Wall Street tarnish on the Obama brand and this trend was ever more increasing in the left/liberal press as well. Immediately upon the Osama death announcement many friends snapped back into blind obedience. It was rather disturbing to watch.

I think the main thing was to demobilize and strike at the right, and it was spectacular as political PR (though not very substantive as "change"). I'm not so sure how long the nationalistic dimension can apply, especially when the expectation the event itself raises for most is that it's time, if not to GTFO, then at least to scale back on the wars. I think the next outrage from Walker et al. will still bring out the protesters, they won't stay home because OBL is dead. The next economic disaster will still be felt. I think the positives for Obama will last into next year, but the OBL story itself will be receding soon, like all the rest. The frenzy period including the major laptop "revelations" will be about a month. After that, we're in incredibly unstable times, I'm sure you're aware. The impact on the ongoing dissolution of empire will be minimal. Another example: None of the ME uprisings are going to stop or change course because of this. (Long as the Americans aren't so stupid as to start a new war out of it.)

On the tone I think you're just fine, by the way, perhaps too gentle at times, but I wouldn't have thought mean or anything analogous to your ATV-driving shotgun-firing patriotic cheerleader. Seriously.

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[8bitagent]

I get what you're saying Jack. I am already so sick of those propagandists weaving the narrative with just the right recalling of horror, forecasting of horror and broadcasting the "new normal" we're now in.

But they can't all be true, can they? Bin Laden couldnt be both frozen on ice, still require "renal dialysis" and be protected by the ISI? One of the bin Laden videos shows bin Laden in a very gravely sickly state, but why wouldn't they go with the kidney dialysis legend? I'm just asking, do you think there's any clarity on some of the theories or legends I listed or others, or is everything still in a strange sort of house of mirrors?

At this point the "ISI" blame game talk could go away and Hillary will come out saying all is cool and "we smoothed things over". Or it could keep escalating, especially if India has anything to do with it.

As others said, I think we will see where this narrative develops and what the true purpose of this raid was

[JackRiddler]

But they can't all be true, can they? Bin Laden couldnt be both frozen on ice, still require "renal dialysis" and be protected by the ISI? One of the bin Laden videos shows bin Laden in a very gravely sickly state, but why wouldn't they go with the kidney dialysis legend? I'm just asking, do you think there's any clarity on some of the theories or legends I listed or others, or is everything still in a strange sort of house of mirrors?

The last really confirmable quasi facts about OBL and his Afghan AQ branch as autonomous entities would have been in 2001: the Tora Bora escape (into Pakistan) and the safe-passage air corridor allowed by Rumsfeld so that the ISI could ferry people out of Afghanistan (into Pakistan). Ten years later, "OBL" is nabbed in the Pakistani military garrison town! The simplest arc in between is to see him as having been in the physical possession of the ISI the whole time (again: dead or alive, the exclusivity of the knowledge is more important than the reality of his biological state) with their US counterparts silently approving because OBL is a vital legend for 9/11 and the GWOT. But keeping a "kill" option. Once this is set up, neither side will EVER admit to it! Think about it.

My point is that in an important sense, all and none of the stories about what came in between are true and false. OBL went into a black box in 2001, and inside the box he might as well have been either or both, alive and dead, like Shroedinger's Cat, until the box was opened. What matters here is not what was in the box (which is the only place they now want us to look) but who possesses the box and can therefore define what was in it. Assuming they fully possessed the box (i.e., as long as no antagonistic actors could know otherwise), they had the power to make what was in the box look however they liked, and dead or alive wouldn't be an obstacle.

The villa story at any rate is a signal that he was in the custody/sponsorship/whatever of a piece of the Pakistani deep state. An extension of the same straightforward logic says it was a joint operation with a piece of the US deep state. Those are simple explanations. The US deep state finances the Pakistani deep state as they jointly conduct a war on the piece of Afghanistan that has the bad luck to be on the wrong side of the Pakistani border, thanks to the Durand Line of the 1880s. The way the Pakistani military thinks to pacify the Pashto tribes without risking too many troops and minimizing the risk of revolution in the center is by allowing the Americans to drone bomb "militants" (mostly noncombatants) while issuing condemnations of the drone bombing. Kabuki. Also, really stupid for both countries, but the contractors are too busy making money to care while it lasts.

All this can end in a flash with a sufficiently large uprising in Pakistan either bringing down or dissolve the state or, more likely, prompting yet another coup that would have to follow up on the appearance of being independent from the US.

All this can also end in a flash with a few pieces of evidence that make all of my above statements look stupid. I can live with that, if it turns out so. Right now I'm trying to find the simplest explanation for the available facts as I understand them.

At this point the "ISI" blame game talk could go away and Hillary will come out saying all is cool and "we smoothed things over". Or it could keep escalating, especially if India has anything to do with it.

It will get louder and then they'll switch to something else and it will be considered smoothed. That's what I've been arguing.

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