12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

[JackRiddler]

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C_w, thank you, but:

at any time they could manufacture a reason to de-peg the dollar as the world reserve currency and poof, it's over)

I see no reason to believe this, or to believe that this would work to their advantage. I see no mechanism by which the dollar can be easily dethroned (my own proposal above would involve a major BRIC-EU alliance), because too many big players are dependent on their dollar holdings, still. A sell-off would kill the sellers, so they don't want to do it, even if they wish they could. What you are describing, i.e., that part of the power elite could create a fear of hyperinflation as a means to keep everyone accepting austerity, works only as a threat. Once things go nuclear -- and hyperinflation is nuclear! -- they may be the ones who go poof.

Simply because there are "PTB" who manufacture or exploit crises as a means for implementing their own agendas, doesn't mean that every crisis is desirable to them, or controllable. It certainly doesn't mean that every crisis that appears was planned by them.

I don't know how many ways to say that hyperinflation is not what "they" want. It's possible, it may happen due to things "they" do, but it cannot be what most of "them" could ever desire, because it's the kind of chaos that could get them killed.

(Whereas HI is a favorite bogeyman for right-wingers who imagine they're radicals, like 23 and the goldbugs. Consider that PTB are not the only ones who can find a way to make hay out of fears of worst-case scenarios.)

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[Nordic]

slaughter the rich. problem solved.

am i joking? well, violence is always ugly, but i keep thinking of what jfk said about the inevitability of violent revolution.

[barracuda]

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I don't think we're headed for hyperinflation. But why the hell is cranberry juice $9 a gallon? I need to find something cheaper to mix with my vodka.

Actually, the price of cranberries is an enormous complex subject involving the history of cooperative marketing and product diversifications, but basically what you're seeing is the effect of changing global tastes in favor of more cranberries (largely because of the fairly recent marketing of the berry as an antioxidant) combined with a pretty static production output and availablity. In other words - same amount of cranberries, more people want them.

[JackRiddler]

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I don't think we're headed for hyperinflation. But why the hell is cranberry juice $9 a gallon? I need to find something cheaper to mix with my vodka.

Actually, the price of cranberries is an enormous complex subject involving the history of cooperative marketing and product diversifications, but basically what you're seeing is the effect of changing global tastes in favor of more cranberries (largely because of the fairly recent marketing of the berry as an antioxidant) combined with a pretty static production output and availablity. In other words - same amount of cranberries, more people want them.

You don't make it sound all that enormous complex, actually. Now let's drink like Russians.

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[Canadian_watcher]

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C_w, thank you, but:

at any time they could manufacture a reason to de-peg the dollar as the world reserve currency and poof, it's over)

I see no reason to believe this, or to believe that this would work to their advantage. I see no mechanism by which the dollar can be easily dethroned (my own proposal above would involve a major BRIC-EU alliance), because too many big players are dependent on their dollar holdings, still. A sell-off would kill the sellers, so they don't want to do it, even if they wish they could. What you are describing, i.e., that part of the power elite could create a fear of hyperinflation as a means to keep everyone accepting austerity, works only as a threat. Once things go nuclear -- and hyperinflation is nuclear! -- they may be the ones who go poof.

Simply because there are "PTB" who manufacture or exploit crises as a means for implementing their own agendas, doesn't mean that every crisis is desirable to them, or controllable. It certainly doesn't mean that every crisis that appears was planned by them.

I don't know how many ways to say that hyperinflation is not what "they" want. It's possible, it may happen due to things "they" do, but it cannot be what most of "them" could ever desire, because it's the kind of chaos that could get them killed.

(Whereas HI is a favorite bogeyman for right-wingers who imagine they're radicals, like 23 and the goldbugs. Consider that PTB are not the only ones who can find a way to make hay out of fears of worst-case scenarios.)

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I wasn't talking about hyperinflation.. just a currency crisis.

[JackRiddler]

I wasn't talking about hyperinflation.. just a currency crisis.

I sorta noticed that half-way through that post and should have acknowledged as much. Sorry. But what's a currency crisis? Who calls it a crisis, who gets to prioritize the many crises in terms of their, um, crisis-ness? The emphasis on currency is a way of framing the problems to the advantage of austerity policy, in the process avoiding the much bigger problems of inequality, the need for ecological conversion, and the ongoing class war.

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[Nordic]

one thing we could discuss in this thread is the complete lack of trust that now exists in the system. washingtonsblog goes on and on about this. that the system will remain broken until there is accountability for the run-up and crash of 2008.

i think one thing we're seeing is a huge lkack of trust in banks (and for good reason) and in currency itself which is one of the reasons so many entities, from mom and pop to entire nations and their governments, are exchanging this potentially worthless fiat currency into gold and silver.

to think that people aren't converting dollars into hard goods, supposedly one of the signs of impending hp, is to ignore a historical and seemingly endless demand for precious metals which is happening as we speak.

today silver hit 39 an ounce.

[Canadian_watcher]

But what's a currency crisis?

as I understand it it's a relatively 'new' economic term and as such I suppose the definition is evolving. Sudden lack of faith in a nation's ability to pay its debts or afford to continue to trade internationally prompting a flight from that nation's currency thereby worsening the devaluation/inflation and suddenly bringing that country to the dinner table of the IMF/World Bank? would that be close? And naturally this would play out, in household terms, as skyrocketing interest rates, higher energy & food prices, etc.

Who calls it a crisis, who gets to prioritize the many crises in terms of their, um, crisis-ness?

Who Cares? Not to be flippant.. just really, who cares.

The emphasis on currency is a way of framing the problems to the advantage of austerity policy, in the process avoiding the much bigger problems of inequality, the need for ecological conversion, and the ongoing class war.

yes - true. This whole bit about hyperinflation is more of a Survivalist's survival discussion. We should really focus more on an altruistic survival strategy. (and FWIW I think that nurturing local economies is the only way out of this mess.)

[2012 Countdown]

one thing we could discuss in this thread is the complete lack of trust that now exists in the system. washingtonsblog goes on and on about this. that the system will remain broken until there is accountability for the run-up and crash of 2008.

i think one thing we're seeing is a huge lkack of trust in banks (and for good reason) and in currency itself which is one of the reasons so many entities, from mom and pop to entire nations and their governments, are exchanging this potentially worthless fiat currency into gold and silver.

to think that people aren't converting dollars into hard goods, supposedly one of the signs of impending hp, is to ignore a historical and seemingly endless demand for precious metals which is happening as we speak.

today silver hit 39 an ounce.

[JackRiddler]

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There's demand for silver and gold. How is this different from cranberries?

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[2012 Countdown]

I'm just posting these for further context, and how crazy its getting-




If only I'd have gone all-in two years ago. I'd be living a life of leisure. No guts, no glory. Oh well, a few months pay isn't bad to have as insurance.

yes - true. This whole bit about hyperinflation is more of a Survivalist's survival discussion. We should really focus more on an altruistic survival strategy. (and FWIW I think that nurturing local economies is the only way out of this mess.)

Well, I just picked up another case of red beans today. Yes, I bought local! Two cans of cream style Blue Runner, to one bag fresh beans. You throw in some pickled meat, maybe some andouille or smoked sausage over rice. Bam!

[JackRiddler]

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So there are a lot of people who think the dollar will melt down, or even that all currencies will melt down, and who are therefore buying PMs. And since there really is instability, big investors keep parts of their portfolios in PMs, the traditional hedge against apocalypse, whether or not that's rational. And where there's a pumpable market, speculators also jump in. So PM prices go through the roof. And then, as evidence of this imminent universal currency meltdown, some of the very same PM-buyers will point to... rising PM prices. And if you're not buying PMs, you're an idiot. Anything wrong with that? It's like the Nineties IT bubble, but without the burden of believing in the future.

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[anothershamus]

You make a good point Jack, however this looks like a different kind of bubble.
When people lose confidence in the dollar that's when the PMs go up.

Something about this whole market is really bugging me. It's SSOOO manipulated that who knows what would happen if it were allowed to go 'natural' or go 'mark to market' without being pushed in one direction or another.

The frontrunning flashcrash big boys push the market wherever they want and always have money on the difference. I get the feeling that some 'albino black swan event' (from TF over at Along the Watchtower is where I first heard that term, means that it's something no one has ever seen so they don't know what it looks like) is coming and the safest hedge, for now, is PMs. They have a known hard value that sticks. If the rest of the market blows up there is your safety hedge.

We have had earthquakes all over, the market is due for a really big one. TPTB can maybe manipulate it for a while, maybe a long while, (21 years and counting for the Japanese market), or maybe it is getting ready to blow!

"You can line up all the economists in the world and they still won't reach a conclusion!"
These guys just toe the party line and spew whatever crap their side tells them to and they bet that way, if enough people bet that way, markets change.

The people are seeing through this false market, and like Egypt, things could get really 'interesting'! Lots of people have an investment in the market, like 401ks or retirement funds, pensions, they are all being eroded by the rising commodity prices and in some states by the politicians!

There are too many variables to figure this one out. Just have to wait and see where it all ends up. Couldn't hurt to have a few hard coins around just in case. The more people that feel this, the more that sends up the price, market forces at work! Maybe PMs are no longer being manipulated and they are finding their 'natural' level.

Keep an eye out for that 'albino black swan event'.

[Forgetting2]

I think there's a lot of people who see the US situation differentiated from the rest of the globe. What if a number of Euro countries go down the tubes first and the Euro collapses? Where then the US dolor?

[JackRiddler]

I think there's a lot of people who see the US situation differentiated from the rest of the globe. What if a number of Euro countries go down the tubes first and the Euro collapses? Where then the US dolor?

The IMF is supposedly quietly recommending about a Greek default.

This is hardly going to sink Europe. As for the euro, it will get stronger if Greece, Portugal et al. drop out to save themselves.

This is hardly going to save Europe, or anywhere else. The depression has deeper causes, and the world has even bigger problems than the depression, like capitalism itself, imperialism and war, and the only true meltdown, which is ecological and irreversible.

But you must know exactly how this will, at first, play in the USA. Something like this:

USA! USA! USA!

We're back, bitches!!! The sun always shines on us!!! Fuck the Eurosocialist Fags!!!

Everyone else sucks worse than us! DOW at 36,000!!! You're an idiot if you're not BUYING!!!

Which should last all the way until the fall, or a sudden bank meltdown. (Hey, Julian, about that BoA hard drive...)

Of course, Greece could always set off that chain reaction, leading to the same result.