Live: Al Jazeera coverage of Egypt’s growing revolution

[vanlose kid]

6.41pm: Army tank joins in protesters' procession through Alexandria, Al-Jazeera TV reports. The commander of the tank insisted that the army had "no intention of stopping this march", the station says.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/201 ... s#block-57

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[vanlose kid]

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[8bitagent]

So many people in the alternative media are saying don't trust ElBaradei. That he's merely paid and bought for by various ptb. And Muslim Brotherhood...from Nazi Germany to 9/11, these guys seem to be linked to so many horrible things.

here's some recent news for ya folks

jan 27th: report concludes Saudi Arabia STILL secretly financing al Qaeda and the Taliban, and that the Muslim Brotherhood is still linked to these and other Sunni extremist groups
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/01/ ... index.html

Also

Saudi King and government slam protestors in Egypt, strongly support Mubarak
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-01-29/worl ... s=PM:WORLD

Man I hope people in Saudi Arabia rise out and take those mother effers out.

Fareed Zakaria just had an interview with El Baradai on his GPS show on CNN. Now having a CFR-heavy panel, though it seems very pro-protestor. Zakaria's take echoed many sentiments of this board.

Doesn't surprise me really. CFR, including the head Richard Hass, have in recent years been sounding very leftist. Hass and the rest of the CFR wonks say how its not right that the US is in Afghanistan and they need to get out. They were loudly against what Israel was doing in Gaza.

I thought CFR were suppose to be this shadowy Satanic secret cabal in New York controlling the world? LOL

[semper occultus]

Analysis: Gulf states, Saudi can withstand Tunisia effect

www.reuters.com

By Asma Alsharif and Cynthia Johnston
JEDDAH/DUBAI | Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:35pm EST

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has taken in Tunisia's fallen strong man, but the oil wealth of the kingdom and its neighbors should ensure the poverty-driven unrest which ousted Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali does not follow him to the Gulf.

Though the Saudi monarchy infuriated some critics for giving refuge to a deposed autocrat whom many Arabs see as typical of their own authoritarian rulers, it has swiftly moved Ben Ali out of sight, hoping that a quick -- and quiet -- resolution of his fate may calm popular anger, both in Tunis and closer to home.

Analysts say Gulf Arab rulers have struck a golden bargain with their people to trade political quiescence for relative affluence. While Gulf media have splashed headlines of the Tunisian revolt over police repression and poverty, the events there feel politically distant for many in the region.

"I know there is a lot of talk about the ripple effect. I think the epicenter is still very much Tunisia and in the immediate region in north Africa I would say," said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center.

"With regard to the Gulf leaderships directly, to be fair they are focused on a vision ... which is about developing their societies," he added.

The Gulf Arab states' massive oil wealth fueled a development boom that lifted much of the region into prosperity even as other Arab countries struggle to raise living standards.

"I think the Gulf states are a little bit more secure than some of the other states that have been mentioned such as Egypt and Jordan and Algeria. So I don't see it spreading to here," Dubai-based security analyst Theodore Karasik said.

Asked about Tunisia in an Abu Dhabi mall, some young Emiratis were unaware of the crisis unfolding. In Kuwait, among the most politically vibrant Gulf states, the al-Watan daily described the situation as both "welcoming and threatening."

On a UAE-based Internet forum, one user suggested that Emiratis "don't share the same real motive" for a popular rebellion as the Tunisians, citing a higher standard of living.

But Riyadh's move to host Ben Ali sparked the ire of some activist bloggers from Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter and a key U.S. ally, even as some Saudis said they held no ill will toward the Tunisian former leader.

"Very happy for the Tunisian people," Saudi blogger Ahmed Al Omran posted to Facebook. "The only thing that annoyed me was that Saudi Arabia welcomed the ousted dictator to find refuge in our homeland. But for now, let's just live this historical moment. Here's to a domino effect all over the Middle East."

[Joe Hillshoist]

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Thats a good one hey.

Thanks again for posting all nite. Still hoping Alice and family are OK.

Among the tweets from Comrade Hossam:

The army in Tahrir r useless pieces of shit. They r not "protecting" the demonstrators as they were claiming.

The shootings around Lazoughli and the snipers firing at protesters yesterday happened as the army sat and watch.

WE DO NOT WANT THE ARMY! THE ARMY HAS BEEN RULING SINCE 1952. THEY R NOT NEUTRAL PLAYERS.

The curfew the army imposed is meaningless. We break it every night by continuing our protests in Tahrir.

MB activists were denounced by protesters around Lazoughli yesterday when they tried to stop people from marching on interior ministry

And especially these:

Demonstrations continue in all Egyptian cities. People do not want Omar Suleiman. People want to see Mubarak on trial.

Demonstrations continue in all Egyptian cities. People do not want Omar Suleiman. People want to see Mubarak on trial.

The Popular Committees hold the seeds for what direct democracy could look like in the future. We need to focus on them instead of BARADIE!

http://twitter.com/3arabawy

See this is "teh CIA iz everywhere" in action, now, when events are in motion and things are underway. They are trying to grab control however they can. What have you heard about the people's "popular committees"? Not a whole lot I bet.

The last thing the "state" needs (and The States for that matter) is a population who can get shit done for themselves. The popular committees won't make the news till they have to cos it defeats the myth about people needing government from above.

[American Dream]

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2 ... gents.html

Is the Egyptian Government Using Agents Provocateur to Justify a Crack Down On the Protesters?

By Washington’s Blog

January 30, 2011



Al Jazeera reported [2] today:

[Al Jazeera reporter] Ayman Mohyeldin reports that eyewitnesses have said “party thugs” associated with the Egyptian regime’s Central Security Services – in plainclothes but bearing government-issued weapons – have been looting in Cairo. Ayman says the reports started off as isolated accounts but are now growing in number.

The Telegraph reports [3]:

“Thugs” going around on motorcycles looting shops and houses, according to Al Jazeera. They say they are getting more and more reports of looting. More worryingly, one group of looters who were captured by citizens in the upmarket Cairo district of Heliopolis turned out to have ID cards identifying them as members of the regime security forces.

Similarly, Egyptian newspaper Al MasryAlyoum provides [4] several eyewitness accounts of agents provacateur:

Thugs looting residential neighborhoods and intimidating civilians are government-hires, say eyewitnesses.

In Nasr City, an Eastern Cairo neighborhood, residents attempting to restore security told Al-Masry Al-Youm that looters were caught yesterday.

“They were sent by the government. The government got them out of prison and told them to rob us,” says Nameer Nashaat, a resident working alongside other youths to preserve order in the district. “When we caught them, they said that the Ministry of Interior has sent them.”

In Masr al-Qadeema, another district, scrap metal dealer Khaled Barouma, confirmed the same account. “The government let loose convicts. They let them out of prisons. We all know them in this neighborhood,” he said, adding that the neighborhood’s youth is trying to put the place in order by patrolling its streets with batons.

“The government wants people to believe that this is an uprising of convicts, which is not the case. The government is the one that is a criminal,” Khalil Fathy, a local journalist covering the events closely, said.

In Rehab City, a wealthy gated community in New Cairo, masked thugs broke through a civilian barricade in a truck and were caught by a neighborhood watch that has been guarding the city this evening.

“Even though we caught the ones we saw, now that they’re in, we know that more will be coming and we’re all running to protect our families and houses,” said Karim el-Dib, one of the men guarding the community.
Meanwhile, protestors caught two police informants attempting to rob a bank in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria.

Ayman Nour, opposition leader and head of the Ghad Party, told Al-Masry Al-Youm that his fellow party members have caught several thugs who work forthe Interior Ministry. After capturing them in downtown Cairo and Heliopolis, Nour’s followers found ministry of interior IDs on them, Nour said.

“The regime is trying to project the worst image possible to make it clear to people that they have only one of two alternatives: either the existing order or chaos,” he said.

Scores of looting incidents have been reported since yesterday. Many residential neighborhoods have been attacked by thugs and ex-convicts, despite military presence.

Bikyamasr reports [7]:

Eyewitnesses reported that one plain clothed man attempted to loot and destroy private property, and when confronted he was shot. Bystanders then took his identification out and revealed that he was a police officer, leaving a number of demonstrators to argue that the government has told police to instigate looting and unrest.

And American intelligence service Stratfor provides [8] the following unconfirmed report today:

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace.

As I noted [9] in 2008:

When agents provocateur commit violence or destroy property at peaceful protests, they are carrying out false flag terrorism.

Wikipedia [10] defines false flag terror as follows:

False flag operations are covert operations conducted by governments, corporations, or other organizations, which are designed to appear as if they are being carried out by other entities. The name is derived from the military concept of flying false colors; that is, flying the flag of a country other than one’s own. False flag operations are not limited to war and counter-insurgency operations, and have been used in peace-time; for example, during Italy’s strategy of tension.

If intelligence agencies or federal, state or local police themselves commit acts of violence against people or property, and then blame it on peaceful protesters, that is – by definition – false flag terror.

***

Read this [11] to see how eagerly the mainstream media are to pin acts of violence on peaceful protesters, instead of the thugs who actually committed them.

And if you don’t know about agents provocateur, read this statement [12] about Burma:

“They’ve ordered some soldiers in the military to shave their heads, so that they could pose as monks, and then those fake monks would attack soldiers to incite a military crackdown. The regime has done this before in Burma, and we believe they would do so again.”

And see this news [13] from Canada, and this Wikipedia discussion [14].

And as I pointed out [15] last year:

United Press International reported [16] in June 2005:

U.S. intelligence officers are reporting that some of the insurgents in Iraq are using recent-model Beretta 92 pistols, but the pistols seem to have had their serial numbers erased. The numbers do not appear to have been physically removed; the pistols seem to have come off a production line without any serial numbers. Analysts suggest the lack of serial numbers indicates that the weapons were intended for intelligence operations or terrorist cells with substantial government backing. Analysts speculate that these guns are probably from either Mossad or the CIA. Analysts speculate that agent provocateurs may be using the untraceable weapons even as U.S. authorities use insurgent attacks against civilians as evidence of the illegitimacy of the resistance.

Quebec police admitted [17] that, in 2007, thugs carrying rocks to a peaceful protest were actually undercover Quebec police officers
At the G20 protests in London in 2009, a British member of parliament saw [18] plain clothes police officers attempting to incite the crowd to violence
Similarly, an Indonesian fact-finding team investigated violent riots which occurred in 1998, and determined [19] that “elements of the military had been involved in the riots, some of which were deliberately provoked”.

[23]

I heard an AJ commentator state thet 80% of the aid that the US gives to Egypt comes in the form of military/police stuff.

It's not unreasonable to surmise that the US also shares military/police tactics with Egypt.

Including how the US deals with protesters.

[8bitagent]

Eeesh, check this out guys.

Looks like it's absolute pure chaos in Egypt
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/vp/ ... 0#41339710

I feel bad for all the people caught in the middle, sounds like the government has let loose a lot of the prisoners(some of which are probably innocent, tho probably a lot of people that will no doubt cause problems) Egyptian prisons are known to be some of the most brutal in the world.

[DrVolin]

So the timeline is getting more interesting.

The cable cuts took place 23 January to 4 February 2008, with another significant one 19 December 2008.

On 19 December 2008 France Telecom issued a press release stating that the FLAG Telecom, SEA-ME-WE 4, and SEA-ME-WE 3 cables, linking Alexandria, Egypt, Sicily, and Malta, had been cut by either bad weather conditions or a ship's anchor, resulting in substantial slowdowns in communication traffic, with Egypt experiencing an overall 80% reduction in Internet capacity.[28] France Telecom expects SEA-ME-WE 4 will be repaired first, then SEA-ME-WE 3, then FLAG, and that repairs should be concluded by 31 December. The break disrupted 75% of communication between the Middle East and Asia and the rest of the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_subma ... 9_December

Eight days later, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead into the Gaza strip (27 December 2008 - 21 January 2009). One of the main objectives of Cast Lead was the interdiction and destruction of tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. Less than six months later, from June to August 2009, we have the Iran election protests, which turn into the failed Twitter Revolution, or Green Revolution against Ahmadinejad's government.

In March 2010, the Stuxnet weapon is launched at the Iranian nuclear program. Was this plan B after the failure of the Twitter Revolution? Now, in January 2011, we have the rebellions in Tunisia, Egypt, and perhaps other places, all featuring the net front and center.

It would be interesting to know what kind of maintenance was done as a result of these middle eastern outages in 2008.

[nathan28]

Now, in January 2011, we have the rebellions in Tunisia, Egypt, and perhaps other places, all featuring the net front and center.

I was pretty sure that they featured and feature people in the streets "front and center".

[Sepka]

[vanlose kid]

Israel urges world to curb criticism of Egypt's Mubarak
Jerusalem seeks to convince its allies that it is in the West's interest to maintain the stability of the Egyptian regime.

By Barak Ravid

Israel called on the United States and a number of European countries over the weekend to curb their criticism of President Hosni Mubarak to preserve stability in the region.

Jerusalem seeks to convince its allies that it is in the West's interest to maintain the stability of the Egyptian regime. The diplomatic measures came after statements in Western capitals implying that the United States and European Union supported Mubarak's ouster.

Israeli officials are keeping a low profile on the events in Egypt, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even ordering cabinet members to avoid commenting publicly on the issue.

Senior Israeli officials, however, said that on Saturday night the Foreign Ministry issued a directive to around a dozen key embassies in the United States, Canada, China, Russia and several European countries. The ambassadors were told to stress to their host countries the importance of Egypt's stability. In a special cable, they were told to get this word out as soon as possible.

EU foreign ministers are to discuss the situation in Egypt at a special session today in Brussels, after which they are expected to issue a statement echoing those issued in recent days by U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Obama called on Mubarak to take "concrete steps" toward democratic reforms and to refrain from violence against peaceful protesters, sentiments echoed in a statement Saturday night by the leaders of Britain, France and Germany.

"The Americans and the Europeans are being pulled along by public opinion and aren't considering their genuine interests," one senior Israeli official said. "Even if they are critical of Mubarak they have to make their friends feel that they're not alone. Jordan and Saudi Arabia see the reactions in the West, how everyone is abandoning Mubarak, and this will have very serious implications."

Netanyahu announced at yesterday's weekly cabinet meeting that the security cabinet will convene tomorrow to discuss the situation in Egypt.

"The peace between Israel and Egypt has lasted for more than three decades and our objective is to ensure that these relations will continue to exist," Netanyahu told his ministers. "We are closely monitoring events in Egypt and the region and are making efforts to preserve its security and stability."

The Foreign Ministry has called on Israelis currently in Egypt to consider returning home and for those planning to visit the country to reconsider. It is telling Israelis who have decided to remain in Egypt to obey government directives.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/ne ... k-1.340238

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[vanlose kid]

Stability As Code For Keeping Dictators In Power

Note: This was originally posted at The Third Way: Finding Balance in Mideast Analysis

Israel has apparently begun working to press Europe and the United States to try to save the embattled regime of Hosni Mubarak. Ha’aretz reports that Netanyahu asked other countries to tone down criticism of Mubarak. However, while the headline says this came from Netanyahu, the article only mentions the foreign ministry, and, as we have seen many times, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman writes his own foreign policy and sometimes acts without necessarily coordinating with the Prime Minister’s office.

In either case, Israel is once again showing itself to be horribly out of touch with the realities of the world they live in. There is only one, very slim, possibility for Mubarak’s survival and that is massive violence. This would probably fail as well, and if it succeeded, it probably would not succeed for long. And in the aftermath, Israel, the US and Europe would be facing a much angrier country that would be far less concerned about maintaining good relations outside the Arab world.

In any case, it doesn’t seem that anyone in Europe, nor the Obama administration, is interested in interfering with Egypt directly, though one suspects they’d all prefer to see Mubarak remain long enough to pass the mantle off to someone who would maintain Egypt’s current stances in foreign policy. The fact that they all were happy to work with Mubarak for thirty years despite his awful human rights record and refusal to democratize the country indicates that these are not the concerns of the foreigners.

Israel’s urging for other countries to prioritize Egyptian “stability” is simply code for maintaining the status quo, at least as far as Egypt’s real positions and actions in regard to the Palestinians, to Israel, to Iran and the Middle East in general. They seem to have completely missed the fact that the status quo has already crumbled in Egypt. Things are changing, and Israel’s desperation for holding the status quo is not only foolhardy, it reflects an inability to deal with changes that are already happening (increasing public pressure in Turkey, Europe, the US and elsewhere to free the Palestinians from occupation) and an even greater inability to deal with even more changes that are coming.

Israel simply can’t afford to be this ignorant. If it does not move immediately to change the status quo itself and start finding a way to seriously move toward a Palestinian state that is viable and includes Jerusalem and some accommodation of the refugee issue, history is going to overtake the country. And everyone interested in peace and in Israel’s future should be pounding away at this message.

Instead, we have Malcolm Hoenlein articulating not only the fact that the organization he heads, the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations (COPJ) works against Israel’s interests as well as those of the Palestinians and the USA, but also illustrates just why so many of us call the coalition of his group, AIPAC, ADL, AJC and other groups the “status quo lobby.” In one of the most absurd remarks even Hoenlein has ever made, he called Mohammed ElBaradei, the man who appears to be the favorite to take over for Mubarak, a “stooge for Iran.” Which made me laugh when I thought of all teh people who had called ElBaradei a stooge for the US and Israel because he publicly chastised Iran for not granting his International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) full access for their inspections.

Israel is staring at a very dangerous future. The current government is steering it toward disaster, and the supporters of that government in Washington and Europe are literally killing Israel. If the occupation doesn’t end, Israel will find that it will have to face Arab anger over the issue of Palestine without dictators like Mubarak to keep the locals in line. And at that point, this ugly and unnecessary conflict will get a lot uglier.


http://palestinenote.com/blogs/blogs/ar ... power.aspx

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[vanlose kid]

Egypt riots are an intelligence chief's nightmare
Western intelligence in general and Israeli intelligence in particular did not foresee the scope of change in Egypt, which may require a reorganization of the IDF.

By Amos Harel

The events of the last few days in Egypt – apparently the most important regional development since the Islamic revolution in Iran and the Egyptian-Israeli peace deal of 1979 – are also an expression of the decision-makers' nightmare, the planners and intelligence agents in Israel.

While in other countries many are watching with satisfaction at what looks to be possibly the imminent toppling of a regime that denied its citizens their basic rights, the Israeli point of view is completely different.

The collapse of the old regime in Cairo, if it takes place, will have a massive effect, mainly negative, on Israel's position in the region. In the long run, it could put the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan in danger, the largest strategic assets after the support of the United States.

The changes could even lead to changes in the IDF and cast a dark cloud over the economy.

Western intelligence in general and Israeli intelligence in particular did not foresee the scope of change in Egypt (the eventual descriptor "revolution" will apparently have to wait a little longer). Likewise, almost all of the media analysis and academic experts got it wrong.

In the possible scenarios that Israeli intelligence envisioned, they admittedly posited 2011 as a year of possible regime change – with a lot question marks – in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but a popular uprising like this was completely unexpected.

More than this, in his first appearance at a meeting last Wednesday of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee the new head of military intelligence Major General Aviv Kochavi said to member of Knesset, "There are currently no doubts about the stability of the regime in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood is not organized enough to take over, they haven't managed to consolidate their efforts in a significant direction."

If the Mubarak regime is toppled, the quiet coordination of security between Israel and Egypt will quickly be negatively affected. It will affect relations between Cairo's relationship with the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip, it will harm the international forces stationed in Sinai.

It will mean the refusal of Egypt to continue to allow the movement of Israeli ships carrying missiles through the Suez canal, which was permitted for the last two years, according to reports in the foreign press, in order to combat weapons smuggling from Sudan to Gaza. In the long run, Egypt's already-cold peace treaty with Israel will get even colder.

From the perspective of the IDF, the events are going to demand a complete reorganization. For the last 20 years, the IDF has not included a serious threat from Egypt in its operational plan.

In the last several decades, peace with Cairo has allowed the gradual thinning out of forces, the lowering of maximum age for reserve duty and the diversion of massive amounts of resources to social and economic projects.

The IDF military exercises focused on conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas, at most in collusion with Syria. No one prepared with any seriousness for a scenario in which an Egyptian division would enter Sinai, for example.

If the Egyptian regime falls in the end, a possibility that seemed unbelievable only two or three days ago, the riots could easily spill over to Jordan and threaten the Hashemite regime. On Israel's two long peaceful borders there will then prevail a completely different reality.

http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/egypt-ri ... e-1.340027

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[vanlose kid]

Israel + Egypt (+ the US too) coordinating Sinai moves

Jan 30th, 2011 | By Marian Houk | Category: Egypt, Palestine, United States
JERUSALEM: “As far as I know, yesterday and the day before [Friday + Saturday], Israel agreed to authorize the Egyptian military to bring more people into the Sinai,” Israeli Brigadier-General Tzvika Foghel said in an interview on Sunday.

Foghel, who has served in Israel’s Southern Command where he occasionally is recalled for active duty, said that to his knowledge, this involved some 100 to 150 Egyptian Army personnel.

Israel’s agreement was limited, and given only for “a couple of days, during these days [of large-scale and widespread popular protest against Egyptian President Husni Mubarak],” Foghel noted.

These exceptional Egyptian military personnel have now deployed all along the border, from Gaza to Eilat, with some stationed near the Egyptian Sinai port of El-Arish, he indicated.

“We have the same interests,” Foghel said.

Yossi Gurvitz wrote on his blog, Wish you Orwell, here and on the website of +972 magazine, a collective of Israeli bloggers, here, that “It’s hard to believe the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] is not aware of Egyptian army movements into Sinai, which is technically an invasion and a breach of the peace accords. If the Egyptians acted without coordinating their movements with Israel, this is very troubling news; such a move, after all, led to the Six Days War. If the act was coordinated, then someone in the government has to explain under what authority he acts. The peace accords were approved by the Knesset, and changing them would conceivably require its approval. Furthermore, the issue raises the question of whether Israel supports the Mubarak regime against its own citizens”.

But, as it turns out, the IDF has been fully involved in the Egyptian Army’s deployment this weekend.

It seems clear that planned and internationally-coordinated steps have been taken to ensure there would be no security vacuum, in preparation for any eventuality in Egypt.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reportedly said on American television news interview programs Sunday that “We want to see an orderly transition so that no one fills a void, that there not be a void”.

Juan Cole wrote on his Informed Comment blog here, today, that “Leaders who have authority do not have to shoot people. The Mubarak regime has had to shoot over 100 people in the past few days, and wound more. Literally hundreds of thousands of people have ignored Mubarak’s command that they observe night time curfews. He has lost his authority”.

According to a story on the freewheeling Israeli website, Debka.com, “Early Sunday, the Egyptian army quietly began transferring armored reinforcements including tanks through the tunnels under the Suez from Egypt proper eastward to northern Sinai … Our Jerusalem sources report the Netanyahu government may have tacitly approved it”.

However, the Israeli military has indeed given its explicit approval.

According to the terms of the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel [and its subsequent annexes] negotiated at Camp David by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Israel’s full withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula, which finally took place in 1982, was conditioned on the complete and permanent demilitarized of the Sinai.

Under the strict terms, a maximum of 750 Egyptian military personnel are to be allowed in the Sinai at any given time.

But, according to Foghel, “the soldiers should be only from the Egyptian national guard or from the border police”

After the Hamas rout of Fatah/Palestinian Preventive Security Forces in Gaza in mid-June 2007, Egypt requested Israel’s agreement to double – to 1500 – the number of Egyptian military personnel deployed in Sinai to deal with the new situation. After considerable debate within the Israeli military, this request was denied. The argument was won by Israeli military officers who suspected that Egypt was only using the situation as an excuse to increase its military deployment at Israel’s southern border.

Israeli Brigadier-General (Ret.) Shlomo Brom, now an analyst in Tel Aviv’s Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), said that though he doesn’t recall the exact numbers, there was eventually agreement, in talks between the two sides, on an increase in the numbers. This seems to have happened after the Hamas-engineered toppling of a wall along the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Rafah in January 2008 – as tightened Israeli-military-administered sanctions caused the shut-down in Gaza’s only electrical power plant due to a shortage of industrial diesel fuel supplied exclusively via Israel.

Foghel indicated that there is no need, under the Camp David treaty, for Egypt to obtain permission for any number of additional non-military police personnel.

Obtaining Israel’s agreement for any Egyptian special forces or members of the Egyptian intelligence services would usually be obtained through Israeli Foreign Ministry personnel, who would liaise with the Israeli Army to get permission, Foghel said.

The U.S.-led Multinational Force Observers are based near Rafah in the Sinai to monitor the situation, in accordance with the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty (+ annexes).

Meanwhile, in the past couple of days, there have been confusing and contradictory reports about what is going on now in the Sinai.

Israel’s Debka.com said, in the same story referred to above, that members of the Izzedin al-Qasem brigades crossed from the Gaza Strip into the Sinai Peninsula overnight [Saturday to Sunday], and battled Egyptian Interior Ministry special forces in Rafah and in El-Arish.

The Debka story, posted here, also reported that this infiltration was coordinated with “Bedouin tribesmen and local Palestinians”, who were simultaneously engaged in clashes with Egyptian forces, also in Rafah and in El-Arish.

Fogel said that this report is “probably right, in the circumstances – though these days they have been acting with more common sense”.

Earlier, there were reports from Gaza that Egyptian forces had left Rafah, but that Gaza’s Interior Ministry had subsequently secured the border.

Meanwhile, a second scenario – on which Foghel would not comment – involved the possible re-deployment of the Israeli Army from the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow dirt road that runs all along the southern Gaza border with Egypt from which the IDF withdrew at the time of the unilateral Israeli “disengagement” ordered by former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2005.

Israeli Army planners have kept the redeployment scenario [along the Philadelphi Corridor] on the back burner, but still warm, in recent years.

There are indications that, with agreement of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority that may now be in place, Israeli redeployment in the Philadelphi Corridor – on a temporary and pragmatic basis – is now again under consideration.

The tacit consent of Hamas would also be required for Israeli redeployment along the Philadelphi corridor – and may also have recently been given.

For this reason, the INSS’s Shlomo Brom says he finds this scenario far-fetched and very hard to believe. “This would mean war in Gaza”, he said. Why? “Because Hamas is in control. Whether the Palestinian Authority agrees or disagrees is meaningless, because they don’t control the Gaza Strip … It would mean the temporary reoccupation of Gaza”.

In the current circumstances, however, Hamas might find it possible to go along with such an arrangement, if clearly temporary – and if it is linked to a broader political arrangement which would envisage a better solution for Hamas than the present scenario.

Hamas might also have no choice.

The Jerusalem Post’s well-connected defense correspondent Yaakov Katz reported on Sunday here that “Regime change in Egypt would force the IDF to reallocate resources and possibly increase its strength in the South, senior defense officials warned on Saturday”.

Katz said that the Israeli Military had set up special teams working both in Beersheva in the Israeli Negev and in the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv.

He added in his JPost story that “Israeli concerns regarding Egypt relate to several issues but focus on the long-term strategic effect Mubarak’s downfall would have on the country and the Muslim Brotherhood’s potential to take over the country. The Brotherhood has said that one of the first things it would do would be to rip up the peace treaty. Israel is also concerned about the effect a regime change would have on Egypt’s border with Gaza, where security forces have recently been working more aggressively to stop arms smuggling to Hamas. While weaponry and explosives have still made their way to the Strip, the security forces have nonetheless been effective in curbing the flow. ‘A change in power could change what happens on the border as well’, a senior defense official said’…”

BM

http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=25050

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