Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby DrEvil » Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:02 pm

^^Another point, which I see repeated over and over and over again, from the AIER piece:

Coverage of a recent mask study conducted in Denmark likewise epitomizes the failure of the scientific community to rigorously engage with results that do not fit the prevailing masks-as-a-panacea narrative. The first randomized and controlled study of its kind (another appeared in May but it pertained to flu and had similar results), it found an absence of empirical evidence that masks provide protection to people wearing them, although it apparently did not assess whether they prevent infection of those who encounter the wearer. The report was covered in a New York Times article bearing the patronizing headline, “A New Study Questions Whether Masks Protect Wearers. You Need to Wear Them Anyway.”


.. which completely misses the point (which is shocking, coming from a libertarian think-tank). Masks aren't there to protect you, they're there to protect others from you by reducing the viral load in the air in crowded places.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:06 pm

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

But cloth masks are not effective in doing so, based on various studies. Not to mention the handling of masks by the daily wearer will increase the potential of spreading germs. Not to mention that excessive mask use by healthy individuals is detrimental to health. And again, it's not confirmed that asymptomatic individuals can actually transmit the virus. And, even if we assume for a moment that they CAN: how would it happen outdoors? Unless I'm within inches of you and breathing/coughing near you FOR AT LEAST A MINUTE or more, the likelihood is that you will not receive the viral load to catch this virus. In most/almost all outdoor scenarios keeping distance is more than sufficient WITHOUT the need for a mask.
(in crowded spaces, I can at least understand the rationale, though I continue to doubt the actual efficacy of a cloth mask, regardless)

IN addition, and going back to LiminalO's point:

If we're seeing the extent of asymptomatic transmission as claimed, why are the IFR's no different than the flu (other than for those over 70)?

The PCR tests are flawed, so they can not be used as a marker for true virus spread (not to mention "cases" continue to be wrongly defined. "Cases" should only be categorized as such when there are clear demonstrable symptoms. If defined this way, the "case" figures would be dramatically lower, and in turn, there'd be far less public alarm -- or rather, justification for media/govt's alarm). Death rates specific to COVID alone remain low/flat.

Again, my core point has always been to focus extent of govt measures on those most at risk (the elderly and/or immune-compromised), while allowing those less at risk to take precautions without these imposed and overly-restrictive govt mandates.

How are current broad-sweeping actions justified given IFR rates? They simply are not.


I'll leave you with this final point, as it touches on a topic most concerning to me as a father. While I disagree with a couple of the points of this opinion piece, I will again "cherry pick" here and quote certain key bits:

Quarantine May Negatively Affect Kids’ Immune Systems

While the immune system is influenced by multiple factors, including genetics and everyday exposures to family members and pets, the long term effects of removing the social system that brings children in contact with other people, places and things remains uncharted territory. However, there is now substantial evidence that antigen exposure during the formative period of childhood is important not only for protection but also for reducing the incidence of allergies, asthma and inflammatory diseases. A well-known theory, called the “hygiene hypothesis,” proposes that the increased incidence of allergies and other immune disorders involving inappropriate immune reactions across industrialized societies is a result of the move away from agrarian society toward a highly sanitized urban setting.

Failing to train our immune systems properly can have serious consequences. When laboratory mice raised in nearly sterile conditions were housed together in the same cage with pet mice raised in standard conditions, some of the laboratory mice succumbed to pathogens that the pet mice were able to fight off. Additional studies of the microbiome — the bacteria that normally inhabit our intestines and other sites — have shown that mice raised in germ-free conditions or in the presence of antibiotics had reduced and altered immune responses to many types of pathogens. These studies suggest that for establishing a healthy immune system, the more diverse and frequent the encounters with antigens, the better.
...

...the longer we need to socially distance our children in the midst of uncontrolled viral spread, the greater the possibility that their immune systems will miss learning important immunological lessons (what’s harmful, what’s not) that we usually acquire during childhood.

There is already well-justified concern about the impact of prolonged virtual learning on social and intellectual development, especially for elementary and middle-school-age children. The sooner we can safely restore the normal experiences of childhood, interacting with other children and — paradoxically — with pathogens and diverse microorganisms, the better we can ensure their ability to thrive as adults in this changing world.

Donna L. Farber is a professor of immunology and surgery at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, where Thomas Connors is an assistant professor of pediatrics.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/25/opin ... stems.html
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby DrEvil » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:03 pm

^^What studies? The Danish study explicitly did not look into it.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:11 am

.
Do you mean Re: cloth masks? The Danish study indeed addressed the efficacy of cloth masks under a variety of conditions, but that's not the only one available. There've been historical studies in the past on the usage of masks as a means to curb virus affliction.

Depending on mainstream source, the results will be framed in different ways, naturally, but here's one summary that also includes an embedded link to another prior study:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do- ... ssion=true


Yesterday marked the publication of a long-delayed trial in Denmark which hopes to answer that very question. The ‘Danmask-19 trial’ was conducted in the spring with over 6,000 participants, when the public were not being told to wear masks but other public health measures were in place. Unlike other studies looking at masks, the Danmask study was a randomised controlled trial – making it the highest quality scientific evidence.

Around half of those in the trial received 50 disposable surgical face masks, which they were told to change after eight hours of use. After one month, the trial participants were tested using both PCR, antibody and lateral flow tests and compared with the trial participants who did not wear a mask.

In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19. 1.8 per cent of those wearing masks caught Covid, compared to 2.1 per cent of the control group. As a result, it seems that any effect masks have on preventing the spread of the disease in the community is small.

Some people, of course, did not wear their masks properly. Only 46 per cent of those wearing masks in the trial said they had completely adhered to the rules. But even if you only look at people who wore masks ‘exactly as instructed’, this did not make any difference to the results: 2 per cent of this group were also infected.

When it comes to masks, it appears there is still little good evidence they prevent the spread of airborne diseases. The results of the Danmask-19 trial mirror other reviews (source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20047217v2) into influenza-like illnesses. Nine other trials looking at the efficacy of masks (two looking at healthcare workers and seven at community transmission) have found that masks make little or no difference to whether you get influenza or not.

But overall, there is a troubling lack of robust evidence on face masks and Covid-19. There have only been three community trials during the current pandemic comparing the use of masks with various alternatives – one in Guinea-Bissau, one in India and this latest trial in Denmark. The low number of studies into the effect different interventions have on the spread of Covid-19 – a subject of global importance – suggests there is a total lack of interest from governments in pursuing evidence-based medicine. And this starkly contrasts with the huge sums they have spent on ‘boutique relations’ consultants advising the government.

...


More at link.

The other factor Re: masks, as touched on in prior commentary here, is that it allows for yet another vehicle for transmission: handling masks, which are placed on your face, and then touching surface areas, and then inadvertently touching your face, etc. -- all of these actions increase the potential for transmission (not just COVID: any virus or bug), or minimally, requires additional effort and precaution that otherwise wouldn't be needed. Wearing them for more than an hour or so at a time quickly becomes detrimental to heath -- the body requires oxygen intake without restriction, whenever possible. Masks are not intended for extended wear. And then there's the maintenance required to ensure they are kept clean between use.

None of this touches on the other LARGE problem, surely to be addressed well after-the-fact: the abundance of PLASTIC discarded due to all this PPE in circulation. The environment can ill-afford a surplus of plastics, even without the proliferation of PPE (not to mention the plastic fibers inhaled when wearing a mask -- over time, this will increase the potential for chronic lung-related issues).

Any sober assessment of the manner in which masks are being promoted/mandated/put in use (and the related justifications) only adds to the lunacy of it all. Anti-Science. YES, it is.

But this has become a dead horse topic at this point. Carry on, however you all deem fit. There is nothing more to say here. In time, the merits -- or, lack of merit -- of it all will become clear, in one direction or another.

In the spirit of modern times, such insights will likely be buried beneath propaganda and/or distractions du jour.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby mentalgongfu2 » Tue Dec 01, 2020 2:01 am

To form a conclusion and argue backwards to the evidence is the antithesis of the scientific method.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby §ê¢rꆧ » Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:31 am

Masks are a sucky imperfect solution that suck all kinds of sucky suck doodoo. Mask mandates are all that times a 100. But masks seem to me to be a pretty small personal inconvenience. The problems you cite are real, but in no way invalidate their use. It's like advocating not using condoms for sex, because feels, and because they fail, because environmental waste, because reasons. It's a non-starter. If one party requires them to feel safer in any given interaction, then that's what's required, or else no contact can ethically transpire.

Lockdowns are all of the above times a 1000. I am ready to murder my housemates from the raging cabin fever (maybe frittering away all night on the Net is a form of harm reduction for me in this department), and I wonder how we'll make rent in 2021. But they do slow spread of pathogens, and we wouldn't need them (or mask mandates, or even contract tracing) if people were just a lil more conscientious about where they go, how they go, what they do, and who they do it with and how often. Just all around have more personal responsibility around this virus that is definitely not-like-the-flu.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby DrEvil » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:40 am

Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:11 am wrote:.
Do you mean Re: cloth masks? The Danish study indeed addressed the efficacy of cloth masks under a variety of conditions, but that's not the only one available. There've been historical studies in the past on the usage of masks as a means to curb virus affliction.

Depending on mainstream source, the results will be framed in different ways, naturally, but here's one summary that also includes an embedded link to another prior study:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do- ... ssion=true


Yesterday marked the publication of a long-delayed trial in Denmark which hopes to answer that very question. The ‘Danmask-19 trial’ was conducted in the spring with over 6,000 participants, when the public were not being told to wear masks but other public health measures were in place. Unlike other studies looking at masks, the Danmask study was a randomised controlled trial – making it the highest quality scientific evidence.

Around half of those in the trial received 50 disposable surgical face masks, which they were told to change after eight hours of use. After one month, the trial participants were tested using both PCR, antibody and lateral flow tests and compared with the trial participants who did not wear a mask.

In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19. 1.8 per cent of those wearing masks caught Covid, compared to 2.1 per cent of the control group. As a result, it seems that any effect masks have on preventing the spread of the disease in the community is small.

Some people, of course, did not wear their masks properly. Only 46 per cent of those wearing masks in the trial said they had completely adhered to the rules. But even if you only look at people who wore masks ‘exactly as instructed’, this did not make any difference to the results: 2 per cent of this group were also infected.

When it comes to masks, it appears there is still little good evidence they prevent the spread of airborne diseases. The results of the Danmask-19 trial mirror other reviews (source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20047217v2) into influenza-like illnesses. Nine other trials looking at the efficacy of masks (two looking at healthcare workers and seven at community transmission) have found that masks make little or no difference to whether you get influenza or not.

But overall, there is a troubling lack of robust evidence on face masks and Covid-19. There have only been three community trials during the current pandemic comparing the use of masks with various alternatives – one in Guinea-Bissau, one in India and this latest trial in Denmark. The low number of studies into the effect different interventions have on the spread of Covid-19 – a subject of global importance – suggests there is a total lack of interest from governments in pursuing evidence-based medicine. And this starkly contrasts with the huge sums they have spent on ‘boutique relations’ consultants advising the government.

...


More at link.

The other factor Re: masks, as touched on in prior commentary here, is that it allows for yet another vehicle for transmission: handling masks, which are placed on your face, and then touching surface areas, and then inadvertently touching your face, etc. -- all of these actions increase the potential for transmission (not just COVID: any virus or bug), or minimally, requires additional effort and precaution that otherwise wouldn't be needed. Wearing them for more than an hour or so at a time quickly becomes detrimental to heath -- the body requires oxygen intake without restriction, whenever possible. Masks are not intended for extended wear. And then there's the maintenance required to ensure they are kept clean between use.

None of this touches on the other LARGE problem, surely to be addressed well after-the-fact: the abundance of PLASTIC discarded due to all this PPE in circulation. The environment can ill-afford a surplus of plastics, even without the proliferation of PPE (not to mention the plastic fibers inhaled when wearing a mask -- over time, this will increase the potential for chronic lung-related issues).

Any sober assessment of the manner in which masks are being promoted/mandated/put in use (and the related justifications) only adds to the lunacy of it all. Anti-Science. YES, it is.

But this has become a dead horse topic at this point. Carry on, however you all deem fit. There is nothing more to say here. In time, the merits -- or, lack of merit -- of it all will become clear, in one direction or another.

In the spirit of modern times, such insights will likely be buried beneath propaganda and/or distractions du jour.


Once again you're missing and/or dodging the point: masks aren't supposed to protect you, they're supposed to protect others from you and the gunk that comes out of your mouth and nose when you breathe, cough and sneeze, something the Danish study does not address.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:55 pm

Once again you're missing and/or dodging the point: masks aren't supposed to protect you, they're supposed to protect others from you and the gunk that comes out of your mouth and nose when you breathe, cough and sneeze, something the Danish study does not address.


How is it NOT addressing this? Also, how would this be a concern when outdoors, keeping distance? Remember, it's dose + time. It would be very rare to catch a virus, any virus, simply by being in someone's "air traffic" in passing. It needs to be prolonged, consistent, in a closed environment, for the chances of catching a virus to increase in probability. Natural outdoor elements are not conducive to such scenarios.
(even an airplane won't qualify due to the air filtering systems in place)

Indoors, in a closed environment with low ceilings and minimal ventilation, surrounded by others: here is where the probability increases as air circulates and has markedly less opportunity for ESCAPE. But even here, a CLOTH mask will not BLOCK virus particles from entering your airstream.

a mask CAN, needless to say, block the much larger 'globules' that you reference above: it will minimize instances where someone coughing and/or sneezing (expectorating) near you may pass that along when nearby or in a closed space. But these are RARE scenarios. And most that are ill should be, and are, staying home. (Otherwise, most who cough or sneeze will cover their mouths/nose, in any event, with their hands/arms).

Again: masks are not justifiable outdoors for those that are not sick or symptom-less. It's simply silly outdoors. Indoors, in close quarters with others, and low ceilings/ventilation, I can understand it.

The lack of a BALANCED approach is lunacy.

Signing off on this thread.

If you are sitting in a well ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.
If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed. Please do maintain physical distance, but the risk of infection in these scenarios are low.
...
Social distancing rules are really to protect you with brief exposures or outdoor exposures. In these situations there is not enough time to achieve the infectious viral load when you are standing 6 feet apart or where wind and the infinite outdoor space for viral dilution reduces viral load. The effects of sunlight, heat, and humidity on viral survival, all serve to minimize the risk to everyone when outside.
When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers - all day; customers - an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.

Commonality of outbreaks

The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections. (Ref)

Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections).

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them
Last edited by Belligerent Savant on Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby dada » Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:44 pm

So we always talk about masks in a sciency way. But it's also a courtesy thing. And I think there's something to be said for courtesy. Quaint notion, I know.
Both his words and manner of speech seemed at first totally unfamiliar to me, and yet somehow they stirred memories - as an actor might be stirred by the forgotten lines of some role he had played far away and long ago.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:03 am

.

A 'courtesy'!

It's a symbol. A conditioning mechanism. A visual symbol and reminder of submitting to fear tactics and excessive measures.

It needs to be rebuked more often than not.

Was it a 'courtesy' prior to this year?

The 'courtesy' was to cover one's mouth/nose when sneezing/coughing, or moving one's head away/to the ground. Which most people do.

For now, I wear one only when mandated indoors -- when entering a store, for example -- but never outside unless in crowds for extended periods, which as we all know simply hasn't presented itself (crowds, that is).

This virus has allowed all the germaphobes and antisocials to more vocally express what they previously kept largely to themselves, their therapists, and/or their messageboards/social media feeds.



(Slap myself on the wrist for breaking my rule of cutting myself off from this thread)
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Grizzly » Sat Dec 05, 2020 7:05 pm

“The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it.”

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby dada » Sat Dec 05, 2020 10:28 pm

A video-sharing site where all the opinionaters censored by youtube can go. Surely nothing bad can come of that.
Both his words and manner of speech seemed at first totally unfamiliar to me, and yet somehow they stirred memories - as an actor might be stirred by the forgotten lines of some role he had played far away and long ago.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby conniption » Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:47 pm



Thanks for the video, Griz. I happen to be watching a Vernon Coleman video here:
The Mask-Wearing Collaborators Are Going to Kill Us All
27 Nov 2020
https://brandnewtube.com/watch/the-mask ... hR3d2.html


We could use a button on top (like youtube) for brandnewtube.

~~~


dada wrote:A video-sharing site where all the opinionaters censored by youtube can go. Surely nothing bad can come of that.


...only if they start to censor it as well, like youtube.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby dada » Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:01 am

The site shouldn't be linked to here at all, in my opinion. There's a flirtation with holocaust revisionism there. What we'd call a toxic atmosphere. It sneaks in.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Grizzly » Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:17 am

There's a flirtation with holocaust revisionism there


And how the fuck, do you know that? Do you people seek out this shit, and use it every goddamn chance you get? I mean really? is it under Categories or Top VIEWS or most liked? There's like 4 or five of you who incessantly try to paint me as some xenophobe, holocaust denier and I'm fucking sick of it.
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