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by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:15 am
by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 2:04 pm
New COVID-19 Death Dispute: Colorado Coroner Says State Mischaracterized Death
By Brian Maass
May 14, 2020 at 11:59 pm
CORTEZ, Colo. (CBS4) – When police in Cortez, Colorado were called to Cortez City Park early on the morning of May 4, they found Sebastian Yellow, 35, lying on the ground and called it out as a code “Frank,” meaning Yellow had died, according to a police report obtained by CBS4.
Within a week, local Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers determined Yellow had died of acute alcohol poisoning, his blood alcohol measured at .55, nearly twice the lethal limit.
“It was almost double what the minimum lethal amount was in the state”, said Deavers, during an interview with CBS4.
But Deavers said that before he even signed the death certificate, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment had already categorized Yellow’s death as being due to COVID-19 and it was tabulated that way on the state’s website.
“I can see no reason for this”, said Deavers.
Yellow’s death is the latest in Colorado raising eyebrows over the way the CDPHE is reclassifying deaths that runs contrary to what doctors and coroners initially ruled.
Last month, a CBS4 Investigation revealed the state health department reclassified three deaths at a Centennial nursing home as COVID-19 deaths, despite the fact attending physicians ruled all three were not related to coronavirus.
In each case, the residents had tested positive for COVID-19, but in each case, on-scene doctors ruled the deaths were not related to the virus. Still, in their official tally, the state increased the number of coronavirus deaths at the Someren Glen facility from four to seven, based on the disputed deaths.
On Thursday, state Rep. Mark Baisley, a Republican representing Douglas and Teller Counties, wrote a letter to District Attorney George Brauchler of the 18th Judicial District, asking for a criminal investigation into the reclassification of the Someren Glen deaths and criminal charges against Jill Ryan, the director of the state health department. Baisley wrote that what occurred was “deliberate acts of certificate falsification” and said Baisley, ”I believe these acts of falsely altering death certificates to be criminal acts of tremendous concern to you and my constituents. I hereby request that you investigate this matter with the intent of bringing criminal charges against Jill Ryan.”
Now Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers finds himself in a similar situation in southwestern Colorado, officially ruling Yellow’s death as “ethanol toxicity” but seeing the state record it differently.
“They should have to be recording the same way I do. They have to go off the truth and facts and list it as such,” said Deavers.
He said following Yellow’s death, the man was tested for COVID-19 since he had been associating with someone who was positive for the virus, and the information can be useful in tracking the path of the virus. Deavers said that test on Yellow came back positive, but the coroner insists that had nothing to do with Yellow’s death. In fact, Deavers says a secondary cause was cirrhosis of the liver.
“It wasn’t COVID, it was alcohol toxicity,” said Deavers.”Yes, he did have COVID but that is not what took his life.”
Deavers said he has been calling officials at the CDPHE this week to understand why they classified Yellow’s death as related to the virus, but he said as of Thursday morning, he had not yet received an explanation. He said in Cortez, citizens are wondering what’s going on.
“They’re thinking the state is trying to inflate numbers which it does look like it, whether they are or not, I don’t know,” said Deavers. He said some have suggested, “They’re trying to make it look like its worse than it really is, I don’t know if that’s what their intentions are. Maybe they’re trying to do it for some of the two trillion budgeted in for the COVID.”
However some statisticians, epidemiologists and medical experts, like Dr. Anthony Fauci, have suggested that COVID-19 deaths are likely being undercounted, not over counted. Fauci testified this week before the Senate and was asked if 80,000 deaths from COVID was accurate.
“Most of us feel that the number of deaths are likely higher than that number,” said Fauci. He told the Senate, “I don’t know exactly what percent higher, but almost certainly it’s higher.”
CBS4 contacted the state health department Thursday requesting an explanation for how Yellow’s death was categorized. No immediate explanation was given. But in the case of the Someren Glen deaths, a CDPHE spokesperson said, “The department follows the CDC’s case definition of COVID-19 cases and deaths… When a person with a lab-confirmed case of COVID-19 dies, their death is automatically counted as a COVID-19 death unless there is another cause that completely rules out COVID-19 such as a fatal physical injury.”
Regardless, in Cortez, Deavers says the death of Sebastian Yellow and how the state is handling it is proving problematic. The county has recorded 25 coronavirus cases but 13 of those have recovered, so there are just a dozen active cases, and before Sebastian Yellow, two deaths.
The county applied May 4 for a variance from the statewide safer-at-home public health order to allow restaurants, retail establishments and other businesses to reopen. In its application the county cited its low number of coronavirus cases, but the CDPHE denied that request. The state health department said, “Our reviewers have some concerns about vulnerabilities in Montezuma County and want to monitor the situation before further considering a variance.”
Deavers said, “We have a low number of cases, low number of deaths in our county and we have businesses here that possibly are not going to reopen. Apparently this specific case was what helped them deny letting the variance go through.”
The state health department cited the number of coronavirus cases but other factors as well, including high death and infection rates in adjacent counties in New Mexico. In a letter to Montezuma County, CDPHE said it was concerned with increasing local cases and the situation in New Mexico which could cause problems for the health care system in Montezuma county.
CDPHE responded with this statement: We classify a death as confirmed when there was a case who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) laboratory test and then died. We also classify some deaths as probable. You can find the full criteria for that on our website under “About our Data,” but the gist is that there must be strong epidemiological evidence of COVID-19 such as a combination of close contact with a confirmed case and symptoms of COVID-19. We will also count a death as a COVID-19 death when there is no known positive laboratory test but the death certificate lists “COVID-19” as a cause of death.
by JackRiddler » Tue Dec 08, 2020 4:08 pm
True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 345,000
By Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-Katz
Updated Dec. 2, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ll-us.html
Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Nov. 14. Altogether, the analysis shows that 345,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.
From March 15 through Nov. 14, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 41 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 2, the total death toll would be about 380,000.
Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.
Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.
by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:19 pm
JackRiddler » Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:08 pm wrote:Another possibility is that 100,000 is the cost of the lockdown measures and the positively evil economic response to the crisis (4 trillion for corporate bailout, a trillion extra for the billionaires in wealth, and $1200 for most taxpayers since the start, equivalent to $6 a day, compared to more than $2K a month in Canada and most other places...)
...
Also, suicides supposedly much higher. There are links in the above passage, by the way.
Death By Policy
Mortality statistics show that many people have died from lockdown-related causes, not from Covid-19.
...
Not every decedent who tested positive for the virus that causes Covid-19 died from it—in fact, the disease is mild for most people. Conversely, some deaths due to Covid-19 may be erroneously assigned to other causes of death because the people were never tested, and Covid-19 was not diagnosed. Nearly everyone dying of Covid-19 has concurrent health problems—the average decedent has 2.5 co-morbid conditions—and hypertension, heart disease, respiratory diseases, and diabetes are among the most common. The presence and interaction of these co-morbid conditions is what sometimes changes Covid-19 from a relatively benign disease into a killer. But co-morbidities can also cause death regardless of Covid-19.
A common way to distinguish the mortality burden of a new infectious agent from other causes of death is to estimate the excess deaths that occurred beyond what would be expected if the pathogen had not circulated. A recent study of 48 states and the District of Columbia estimated 122,300 excess deaths during the pandemic period of March 1 to May 30, compared with expected deaths calculated from the previous five years. Deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 accounted for 78 percent of the total; approximately 27,000 deaths (22 percent) were not attributed to Covid-19. A second study, using the same database with different statistical methods for the period March 1 to April 25, found that 65 percent of 87,000 excess deaths were attributed to Covid-19.
...
...people delayed needed medical care because they were instructed to shelter in place, were too scared to go to the doctor, or were unable to obtain care because of limitations on available care, including a moratorium on elective procedures.
Inpatient admissions nationwide in VA hospitals, the nation’s largest hospital system, were down 42 percent for six emergency conditions—stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, appendicitis, and pneumonia—during six weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic (March 11 to April 21) compared with the six weeks immediately prior (January 29 to March 10). The drop was significant for all six conditions and ranged from a decrease of 40 percent for MI to 57 percent for appendicitis. No such decrease in admissions was found for the same six-week period in 2019. These emergency conditions did not become any less lethal as a result of the pandemic; rather, people simply died from acute illnesses that would have been treated in normal times.
Deaths from chronic, non-emergent conditions also increased as patients put off maintenance visits and their medical conditions deteriorated. In the second study of excess deaths, the five states with the most Covid-19 deaths from March through April (Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania), experienced large proportional increases in deaths from non-respiratory underlying causes, including diabetes (96 percent), heart diseases (89 percent), Alzheimer’s disease (64 percent), and cerebrovascular diseases (35 percent). New York City—the nation’s Covid-19 epicenter during that period—experienced the largest increases in non-respiratory deaths, notably from heart disease (398 percent) and diabetes (356 percent).
Cancer diagnoses were delayed for months as patients were unable to obtain “elective” screening procedures. For some, this will result in more advanced disease. Diagnosed cancer cases—normally treated with surgery or inpatient medical treatments—were treated with outpatient treatments instead. While some oncologists rationalized that the results might be just as good, physicians were clearly deviating from the standard of care.
The lockdowns led to wide unemployment and economic recession, resulting in increased drug and alcohol abuse and increases in domestic abuse and suicides. Most studies in a systematic literature review found a positive association between economic recession and increased suicides. Data from the 2008 Great Recession showed a strong positive correlation between increasing unemployment and increasing suicide in middle aged (45–64) people. Ten times as many people texted a federal government disaster mental-distress hotline in April 2020 as in April 2019.
As we consider how to deal with resurgent numbers of Covid cases, we must acknowledge that mitigation measures like shelter-in-place and lockdowns appear to have contributed to the death toll. The orders were issued by states and localities in late March; excess deaths peaked in the week ending April 11. Reopening began in mid-April, and by May 20 all states that had imposed orders started to lift restrictions. In June, as the economy continued reopening, excess deaths waned.
Our focus must be on ensuring that the health-care system can simultaneously treat Covid-19 and other maladies and reassuring patients that it is safe to seek care. Otherwise, today’s young physicians will have to start entering a new cause of death on death certificates—“public policy.”
Joel Zinberg, M.D., J.D., is a Senior Fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., and an associate clinical professor of surgery at the Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine in New York. He served as general counsel and senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019, where he specialized in health policy.
Belligerent Savant » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:12 pm wrote:
[...]
There has yet to be any formal/firm estimation of exactly how many EXCESS deaths for 2020 ar due to COVID vs. LOCKDOWN MEASURES. I saw an article a couple months back, in the mainstream press, that referenced ~100K lives LOST (deaths) due specifically to lockdowns (inadequate access to care for the terminal ill; death due to depression/suicide, related stress, etc. -- this doesn't include devastation to livelihoods, which is in the millions+). What if the number is markedly higher than 100K?
We already know that the COVID death tallies are INACCURATE, in that they are attributing many deaths to COVID even when the primary cause was due to other factors (dying 'with' COVID rather than 'of' COVID specifically). As far as I can see -- and others are welcome to correct this -- there's been no true accounting of the delineation between deaths caused by lockdown measures vs. deaths caused specifically to COVID.
Figures have been, and will continue to be, manipulated to achieve ends.
[...]
by dada » Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:19 pm
by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 6:51 pm
Conclusion: Countries that already experienced a stagnation or regression of life expectancy, with high income and NCD rates, had the highest price to pay. This burden was not alleviated by more stringent public decisions. Inherent factors have predetermined the Covid-19 mortality: understanding them may improve prevention strategies by increasing population resilience through better physical fitness and immunity.
WHO official urges world leaders to stop using lockdowns as primary virus control method
The World Health Organization’s special envoy on COVID-19 urged world leaders this week to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method.”
by dada » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:08 pm
by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:15 pm
by Joe Hillshoist » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:13 pm
JackRiddler » 09 Dec 2020 06:08 wrote:Excess deaths in U.S. reached 345,000, at a point when the official Covid count was at 250,000.True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 345,000
By Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-Katz
Updated Dec. 2, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ll-us.html
Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Nov. 14. Altogether, the analysis shows that 345,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
One possibility is an undercount of C19-related deaths, sure. I can see incentives to undercount as well as to overcount.
Another possibility is that 100,000 is the cost of the lockdown measures and the positively evil economic response to the crisis (4 trillion for corporate bailout, a trillion extra for the billionaires in wealth, and $1200 for most taxpayers since the start, equivalent to $6 a day, compared to more than $2K a month in Canada and most other places...)
The Times article even raises this possibility implicitly at the end:Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.
From March 15 through Nov. 14, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 41 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 2, the total death toll would be about 380,000.
Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.
Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.
Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.
Also, suicides supposedly much higher. There are links in the above passage, by the way.
.
by Joe Hillshoist » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:17 pm
by Belligerent Savant » Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:36 pm
Most tests set the cycle threshold (Ct) limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus.
Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.
Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside. “I’m shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive,” she said.
A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for the test to return a positive result — at least, one worth acting on.
The C.D.C.’s own calculations suggest that it is extremely difficult to detect any live virus in a sample above a threshold of 33 cycles. Officials at some state labs said the C.D.C. had not asked them to note threshold values or to share them with contact-tracing organizations.
by JackRiddler » Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:46 pm
Joe Hillshoist » Tue Dec 08, 2020 8:17 pm wrote:Victoria went from 700 new cases a day to none for a month because of a strict lockdown, one of the strictest in the world apparently.
Obviously they work to contain and in this case eliminate the virus from the general population/community.
by Joe Hillshoist » Tue Dec 08, 2020 11:58 pm
by Joe Hillshoist » Wed Dec 09, 2020 12:02 am
by Joe Hillshoist » Wed Dec 09, 2020 12:05 am
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