stefano wrote: So, why was Beblawy made PM? I don’t believe that Beblawy had any real executive autonomy or that he made any important decisions without running them by Sisi and the rest of the SCAF, but it’s still an important position. Whose decision was it to put him there, and what was the thinking behind it? Presumably Sisi and the SCAF met with some other heavyweights before naming Beblawy. Who were they, and why did they end up deciding on him?
You can believe what you like, but Biblawy was in charge and in fact managed to do quite a bit of damage before he was asked to resign by the president in a decision that was long, long overdue. Our current president is a good man, a great judge, but much too slow to respond to public demands, no matter how urgent.
On July 3, 2013, as the streets and squares across the length and breadth of Egypt were filled to capacity by citizens demanding to be liberated from the Muslim Brotherhood, an emergency meeting was called by the Defense Minister. Those attending this meeting were meant to represent the widest possible spectrum of political and social opinion. In fact, even the Muslim Brotherhood and their political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, were invited but they refused. The Salafist Nour Party did attend, however, along with representatives of all the major opposition parties, including those of the National Salvation Front, which had formed specifically to oppose the religious fascism of the Brotherhood and its allies; the head of the Church and of Al-Azhar; representatives of the youth-led Tamarod movement (all of whom also played a major role in the January 25th Revolution); Mohamed El-Baradei and his Movement for Change; the People's Popular Current, headed by Hamdeen Sabbahi, representatives of labor and farmers, women's groups, human rights activists, a number of independent and well-respected writers, etc.
At this meeting, the Defense Minister proposed that the people's demands be fulfilled as specified in the Tamarod forms that more than 22 million Egyptians had signed: that Morsi be ordered to step down, that the head of the Egyptian Supreme Court be asked to take over as Acting President and that new presidential elections be called. within 60 days (in which Morsy would be free to run). The Tamarod leaders and the others strenuously objected, arguing that it was too late, that the country was a powder-keg ready to explode, and that the people would not settle for anything less than the removal and arrest of Morsy, the replacement of the Muslim Brotherhood-imposed constitution, and then free and fair elections for a new parliament and president. Most of the others agreed, and El-Sisi was in fact out-voted.
Then, over the next few hours, they hammered out the "road-map" that we've been following since then. El-Sisi had nothing (at all!) to do with the selection of Biblawy as interim prime minister, nor with the appointments of the other ministers, most of whom were actually proposed by El-Baradei himself and approved by the others, led by the Tamarod leaders. This is a fact, reported by those who were there. Indeed, El-Baradei was offered the job first, but refused. He did accept the position of vice-president. One day, I'd really like to understand the secret of Biblawy's popularity with the Baradei people, and with the January 25th youths, who, you might be interested to know, had previously nominated him as their first choice to be the "revolution's" prime minister after Ahmed Shafiq was forced to resign back in February 2011 (the only reason he wasn't is that Biblawy was out of the country at the time and didn't answer his phone). The man is old, incompetent and a thinly-disguised neo-liberal to boot, and performed very poorly in his previous job as Minister of Finance and Deputy-Prime Minister during the ill-fated "revolutionary" government of the equally incompetent Essam Sharaf.
Anyway, you are allowing your prejudices to cloud your perception, assuming without any basis in fact that El-Sisi is in charge, and has been at least since last summer. This is simply not true. Those who know him and who have participated in the decision-making processes consistently describe him as a calm man of very few words, a respectful listener, someone who is very scrupulous about not overstepping the limits of his role as Defense Minister and head of the Armed Forces, responsible for defending Egypt's national security. He is a doer rather than a talker, and everything he does reflects his respect for the position he currently holds and his deep loyalty to Egypt and to the Egyptian people, which is the secret of his incredible popularity at the grass-roots level.
stefano wrote:All the millionaires and billionaires who got fat under the NDP, what do you think they are pushing for now? Naguib Sawiris financed Tamarrod, right? What do you think that gets him under this government?
Tamarod didn't really take much financing -- it's not like there were billboards or tv commercials or full-page newspaper ads or any paid staff. The entire campaign consisted of a downloadable form from a web-site, photo-copied sheets of paper and millions of volunteers across the nation. I used to bring the filled-out forms to my dentists' clinic, or give them to my husband to deliver to the nearest regional office of one of the many political parties who'd made their premises available as collection points. Tamarod's own headquarters were located in vacant apartments lent by supporters or in spaces provided by opposition newspapers like the Wafd. That being said, it should be noted that Naguib Sawiris himself, along with other Christian businessmen, were explicitly targeted for assassination by the Brotherhood and their goons, and that during Morsi's year-long rule, many businesses were torched and/or vandalized in order to force their owners to sell cheaply to Brotherhood businessmen, especially Khairat El-Shater and others, whose fortunes swelled rather obscenely during that black period in Egypt's history.
As for now, a lot of us believe that Egypt has great potential for economic growth, which has been artificially stifled for decades. Now, more than ever, Egypt is ready to find its legs and stand up. It's only smart to want to be a part of that.
stefano wrote:I see you like Ibrahim Mehleb, I guess we’ll see what his government is like. Having been close to Ibrahim Soliman I wouldn’t assume he’s got clean hands.
Actually, Mehleb, when he headed the giant public-sector firm The Arab Contractors, successfully defeated Ibrahim Soliman's persistent efforts to divide the company into several smaller firms and sell them off as part of the Mubarak governments' privatization policy. He's a fighter and very, very loyal to his country and his people. Also like El-Sisi, he's a doer not a talker, and I'm absolutely delighted to have him as our prime minister.
stefano wrote:It is impossible for you to be this categorical about a negative. How can you be sure about what is not happening? Are you confident that you know exactly what is going on everywhere in Egypt all the time? Or can you be sure that a very pro-government media will unfailingly report assaults against people whom the great majority of Egyptians see as traitors, stool pigeons or spies? Of course not. So if people are not only reporting that it is happening, but that it is happening to them, and giving dates, times and places, then yes, I will believe them.
Whenever anything happens around here, you can be sure that someone's filming it with their cell-phone. Within minutes or hours, it's uploaded to Youtube and then "shared" all over social media. Even inside places you wouldn't think it would be possible to film, there's always somebody ready to go. Nobody is more enamored of filming or monitoring or recording events than the Brotherhood and their allies. In fact, they themselves have documented their own crimes, possibly for the benefit of their foreign sponsors, who like to know that they're getting their money's worth. When you have hundreds, or even thousands of videos documenting mob violence by the Brotherhood and their supporters, and on the other hand NONE showing mob violence against them, that should be a clue. The few purporting to document "massacres" and other abuses of Brotherhood supporters have without exception been exposed as fabrications (using images that later prove to be from Syria, Iraq, etc., or individuals pretending to be corpses, etc.) Uncorroborated testimony, especially from individuals who have no credibility and a definite ax to grind simply doesn't cut it, if you're trying to prove that a bunch of violent, terrorist fascists are actually
victims, in the face of all evidence to the contrary.
stefano wrote:In fact you seem to be holding two contradictory positions: on the one hand you say that Dahshan’s article is a “total fabrication”, which implies that you believe that youth revolutionaries are free to go around mobilising for their cause without being bothered by anyone, and on the other hand you are firm in your position that the groups taking the line are traitors and spies out to further the US agenda in some way and that any decent person should oppose them. That view being very widely shared in Egypt, I find it surprising that you don’t think anyone, anywhere, has taken it a step further and shoved them around a bit.
They may have, but there's no credible evidence that they did. On the other hand, there is a lot of credible evidence that the Brotherhood and other agents of the US are the ones spreading terror and mayhem, rampaging and vandalizing property, etc.
stefano wrote:You obviously think that, because April 6 received and receives (?) US government funding, any writer who takes a youth revolutionary line is suspect, and promoting some kind of MB/US agenda. That’s not valid at all. Many of these figures were vocal and visible throughout the time the MB was in government, and played a part in Tamarrod. I’m thinking of Amr Hamzawy in particular, but there are many others. Now Hamzawy is awaiting trial for “insulting the judiciary”, over something he wrote on Twitter. No controls on dissent or freedoms of speech, you say?
Amr Hamzawy is double-faced sleazebag, a mercenary twit whose bread is buttered abroad, not here (not for lack of trying). He has tried to be everything to everybody, to get himself a piece of every pie, but has failed and now nobody can stand him (except, possibly, his colleagues at Carnegie or other foreign associates). He was a live guest for several hours on an evening talk-show in Cairo just this week, and has traveled a lot recently, so he's not under arrest or anything. If he was "awaiting trial", he would either be in jail or prevented from leaving the country, as far as I know.
stefano wrote:I was referring to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh’s claim that three Strong Egypt members had been arrested at the time of the referendum for campaigning for a ‘no’ vote, I suppose that’s the same case you’re talking about. Where did you hear it was a vandalism case?
It was covered by Ibrahim Eissa, one of Egypt's most credible and experienced journalists, a genuine liberal with a long history of activism against oppression in all its forms.
I don't know: the article you cite says that they were sentenced to three years but released the next day, and fined LE 500 (less than a hundred dollars), which doesn't make sense. If they were sentenced to three years, why were they released? They couldn't have been charged with "distributing flyers", because that is not a crime under Egyptian law; contrary to what you might think, it's not possible in Egypt to be tried for a crime that doesn't exist in the books. Why doesn't the article cite the actual criminal charges against them? Aswat Masreya, like Jadaliyya and Mada Masr and a lot of others set up by god knows who, are not at all credible sources, but propaganda outlets specifically targeting foreign readers.
stefano wrote:On that subject, I’d like to ask you again to recommend some news sources. And thanks again for posting here in such detail.
The reason I didn't answer that before is that it's very hard. I tried, but I couldn't think of a single,
especially English-language news source that I can recommend without serious reservations. On the contrary. It's as though I asked you, if I wanted to know what's
really happening with the US, who are the real decision-makers, what is the US really after with its foreign and domestic policies, what news sources should I go to? In Egypt, there is a vast, very hungry audience for "news" and countless media competing to satisfy it. As a result, you get a lot of sensationalist headlines and plenty of speculation from "high-level sources who asked not to be identified", tons and tons of propaganda from all sides, and that's not counting all the bullshit from social media. Personally, I consume an enormous amount of it all, every day, constantly filtering it all through a series of questions:
1) To what extent is the source reputable and accountable? For example, is the reporter clearly identified and does he/she have a reputation to protect? Does he/she cite individuals qualified to given an informed opinion and first-hand testimony, or merely opinionated individuals and "professional activists"? Does the source have a well-defined agenda, based on his/her history?
2) What is the evidence? (For example, if I see and hear someone saying something on the air, this is more credible than an attributed quote). If they cite a published report, I search for it and check.
3) Is there other corroborating evidence? (If the government announces that new road-building projects have been launched or completed, do I see this on the ground?)
4) I also have a wide network of friends and acquaintances, many of them involved in some aspect of something (for example, some have known or worked with individuals involved in certain events, or they themselves are participants or witnesses) -- in other words, gossip. Also subject to filtration.
5) If I'm dealing with an editorial opinion or an "analysis", does it make sense in light of known facts, is the argument logically sound? Do they offer solutions or just engage in knocking everything?
6) In televised interviews, is the person straightforward or evasive? Does he/she respect the audience's intelligence, does he/she cite verifiable facts, or try to manipulate viewers with empty slogans and demagogic emotional appeals? Etc.
I'm really sorry I can't be more helpful. As I said, I take in so much data, from such a wide variety of sources (including sources very hostile to both the army and whatever current government which, believe it or not, includes a number of current-affairs programs on tv), then refine it through discussions and personal observations, then collate it with new facts as they emerge. It's a dynamic, interactive process which many other Egyptians have been forced into, precisely because there is no single source where everything is ready-to-eat.
As for Gaza, the border crossing was open, but unfortunately Hamas controls it from the other side, and was abusing its power to control who got to cross by sending only its own loyalists and preventing many with an urgent need from even reaching the border. The security situation in northern Sinai is atrocious, as a result, with many Egyptian policemen and soldiers ambushed and killed, frequently by infiltrators from Gaza, on a nearly daily basis. A lot of contraband and weapons are caught at the border, but not everything. You'd be amazed at how ingenious some smugglers are. It's a huge dilemma, and the solution could very well be the rapidly-growing Tamarod movement to overthrow Hamas in Gaza (since they categorically refuse to hold the long-overdue elections), which is showing great promise.
stefano wrote:Manpower Minister Kamel Abu Eita has lost his job in a cabinet reshuffle. I liked Abu Eita, he just now managed to stop strikes by promising the minimum wage to workers (though it remains to be seen whether they'll get it - more strikes if they don't). His replacement is Nahed El-Ashry, who, the trade unions say, is "biased in favour of businessmen." The only logic for having replaced Abu Eita, as far as I can see, and with someone like Ashry to boot, is that the government is getting ready to act more harshly towards workers.
Kamal Abu-Eita is a really, really good guy, who's been through the wringer. He's an example of a decent, sincere long-time labor activist who found himself way over his head once he was given actual responsibility for coming up with feasible solutions rather than making demands. He was trapped between the workers' genuine, urgent needs and the reality of how few resources are currently available to satisfy them. As a result, he wasn't able to accomplish anything or please anybody. Without exception, all the labor strikes are taking place in public sector companies that have been bleeding money for years (if not decades), part of the conspiracy to destroy the huge public sector companies that drove the rapid economic expansion and social development of the Nasserist era from 1955 to 1967 and to force Egypt into economic/political/military dependence. Most of the workers, slowly starving within factories that are rusting away, are demanding "profit shares" and "incentives" that previous governments have promised but failed to deliver (except to the series of corrupt and incompetent managers). A lot of money has already been thrown at the workers to pacify them, money that the government doesn't even have, and has been forced to borrow. In any case it's a drop in the ocean and all down the drain unless these companies are radically rehabilitated and renovated. I have very high hopes that this will happen, but certainly not all at once. It's a big mess, which will not be solved by strikes, sit-ins and demands, but by a comprehensive plan to revive Egypt's industrial and agricultural base within an all-encompassing economic re-haul, something that most Egyptians recognize as an urgent matter of national security. As I said, this won't happen all at once, but I believe it will happen sooner than might seem possible.
"If you're not careful the newspapers will have you hating the oppressed and loving the people doing the oppressing." - Malcolm X