Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[Belligerent Savant]

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Good call, JR. Agreed. See y'all in 2021. Hope everyone can manage a reprieve from the madness, however temporary.

[Cordelia]

@Joe Hillshoist

I don't rate the stuff you posted as rigorous enough, its too dogmatic. Its taking random data to fit a pre ordained conclusion.

Belligerent Savant is one of, if not the most intuitive (what happened to the Intuition part of this website?), sane, sincere, and rational members on this board. Major reason(s) why I tune in.

You are right, we should cull the old and infirm.

I've grown so, so tired of this emotive, mindless comeback from herd population group-speak .

[JackRiddler]

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So a couple of days ago here I posted this.

Excess deaths in U.S. reached 345,000 for 2020, as of last month, a point when the official Covid count was at 250,000.

True Pandemic Toll in the U.S. Reaches 345,000
By Josh Katz, Denise Lu and Margot Sanger-Katz
Updated Dec. 2, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ll-us.html

Deaths in every state of the country are higher than they would be in a normal year, according to an analysis of estimates from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Nov. 14. Altogether, the analysis shows that 345,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.

One possibility is an undercount of C19-related deaths, sure. I can see incentives to undercount as well as to overcount.

Another possibility is that 100,000 is the cost of the lockdown measures and the actively evil economic "response" to the crisis (4 trillion for corporate bailout, a trillion extra for the billionaires in wealth, and $1200 for most taxpayers since the start, equivalent to $6 a day, compared to more than $2K a month in Canada and most other industrialized places...)

The Times article even raises this possibility at the end:

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. It will take several months before all these numbers are finalized.

From March 15 through Nov. 14, the most recent date with reliable statistics, estimated excess deaths were 41 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern held through Dec. 2, the total death toll would be about 380,000.

Public health researchers use such methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events when official measures of mortality are flawed.

Measuring excess deaths does not tell us precisely how each person died. Most of the excess deaths in this period are because of the coronavirus itself. But it is also possible that deaths from other causes have risen too, as hospitals in some hot spots have become overwhelmed and people have been scared to seek care for ailments that are typically survivable. Some causes of death may be declining, as people stay inside more, drive less and limit their contact with others.

Drug deaths have also risen steeply so far this year over last year, according to preliminary mortality data collected by The New York Times, though this increase had already started before the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting social disruptions.

Also, suicides supposedly much higher. There are links in the above passage, by the way.

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Now one of the above authors broke down the numbers, and her initial findings are as follows:

2020 Was Especially Deadly. Covid Wasn’t the Only Culprit.

By Denise Lu
Dec. 13, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... auses.html

The year 2020 has been abnormal for mortalities. At least 356,000 more people in the United States have died than usual since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the country in the spring. But not all of these deaths have been directly linked to Covid-19.

More than a quarter of deaths above normal have been from other causes, including diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, high blood pressure and pneumonia, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Untitled.jpg

[note at the bottom of that: "Data are from March 15 to Nov. 14. Not all causes are included. Deaths from external causes, such as suicides and drug overdoses, are not available because investigations are still underway in most cases."]

Some of these additional deaths may actually have been due to Covid-19, but they could have been undiagnosed or misattributed to other causes.

Or, long as it's supposition, the other way around. Even more of these excess deaths may be due to other causes, and attributed primarily to C19.

Many of them are most likely indirectly related to the virus

or the means of the lockdown, or the fact that the absence of ameliorative measures for the measures in the United States have turned the lockdown into an instrument of deadly class war

[/quote] and caused by disruptions from the pandemic, including strains on health care systems, inadequate access to supplies like ventilators or people avoiding hospitals for fear of exposure to the coronavirus.[/quote]

Here's the main graphic from the article.

Unt-2png.jpg

So as not to be misled note that the x-axis here, along the bottom of the graphic, is the baseline, the expected number of deaths, based on recent past years. So the excess deaths total (either category or everything above the x-axis here) are a fraction of the total deaths (e.g., 2.8 million in U.S. in 2018).

There's a lot more in graphic data presentation in the article, here are more key passages:

40,000 extra deaths from diabetes, Alzheimer’s, high blood pressure and pneumonia

[For U.S., 15% above normal]

In several states, deaths attributed to diabetes are at least 20 percent above normal this year.

[...]

Prolonged economic stress on families during the pandemic could also be contributing to increased deaths among those with chronic illnesses.

“You end up having to choose between your prescription medications or buying groceries or keeping a roof over your head,” said Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, whose research in JAMA has also shown deaths from other causes to be higher than normal.

[...]

Nationwide, deaths from Alzheimer’s disease, which usually affects older adults, are 12 percent above normal this year, with several Southern states seeing larger increases. This could be related to challenges in providing adequate care in nursing homes during the pandemic — deaths in nursing homes account for more than a third of the nation’s total coronavirus toll. The virus may have also aggravated some of these patients’ existing health conditions.

Other factors related to the pandemic like social isolation and challenges in getting emergency services could also have contributed to deaths, Dr. Woolf said.

[...]

New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, has seen pneumonia deaths reach about 50 percent above normal, more than double the percentage in the states with the highest rates.

[...]

[caveating]
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in their reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years.

Dr. Woolf also warned that many people who are not captured in mortality statistics may still have adverse health outcomes.

“A person who survived the pandemic may end up deteriorating over the next few years because of problems that happened during the pandemic,” he said. This could include those who have missed routine checkups or have had delays in receiving proper treatment for an ailment.

[kelley]

Fewer Americans died in combat during the Second World War. This has just been fucking great all around.

[kelley]

The federal government in the US has absolutely no other domestic function than to guide how the mostly unfair laws of this nation are enforced. This includes the collection of taxes and the imprisonment of a populace.

No reasons to be found why this had to unfold the way it did. But, of course, it has.

I'm without words these days. Except to say I'm completely disgusted from sunrise to sunset. It's appalling.

[Joe Hillshoist]

@Joe Hillshoist

I don't rate the stuff you posted as rigorous enough, its too dogmatic. Its taking random data to fit a pre ordained conclusion.

Belligerent Savant is one of, if not the most intuitive (what happened to the Intuition part of this website?), sane, sincere, and rational members on this board. Major reason(s) why I tune in.

You are right, we should cull the old and infirm.

I've grown so, so tired of this emotive, mindless comeback from herd population group-speak .

I don't rate it because it isn't rigorous enough. I mentioned that in the reply.

He is taking things that aren't shown to be down to the lockdown alone and saying they are down to the lockdown alone.

Its a religious position not a rational one. There is no way to falsify his claims or the claims of the people he posts to test their conclusions to see how they stand up to reality. They have to be taken on faith.

My mother is 75 and should have a decade of life left based on her side of the family's genetics. I have alot of friends in that age group too, many of whom have potential underlying respitory conditions from years of smoking or exposure to fires. I also have respitory damage, some from smoking some from decades of volunteer fire fighting. I love how people value the economy more than people like me.

And I get really pissed off when I see people say "Its only old people who die from this" as if they don't matter. My mother matters.

[JackRiddler]

Fewer Americans died in combat during the Second World War. This has just been fucking great all around.

Not comparable, but anyway, a large number have died from the manner of the lockdown -- I should say, the irrational measures and especially the accompanying economic policy of vigorously fucking everyone over except for the soon-to-be trillionaires. I mean, to put it in summary form.

[JackRiddler]

My mother is 75 and should have a decade of life left based on her side of the family's genetics. I have alot of friends in that age group too, many of whom have potential underlying respitory conditions from years of smoking or exposure to fires. I also have respitory damage, some from smoking some from decades of volunteer fire fighting. I love how people value the economy more than people like me.

And I get really pissed off when I see people say "Its only old people who die from this" as if they don't matter. My mother matters.

I don't value "the economy" more than people like you, or me, or the rest of us, which is why I think the policy response in the U.S. has been criminal in many more ways than the inadequacy regarding prevention measures.

Serious question: What kind of monetary relief has Australia provided during the time of the measures?

And what would it be like in Australia if the monetary relief had been like what has happened in the U.S.?

[Joe Hillshoist]

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Joe --

'pontification' is a fair/accurate assessment. Guilty as charged -- one of several reasons for my self-imposed shut down (and this time I'll actually follow through with it. I'm making an exception here, now, given my regard for your contributions. You can thank me later).

Truth is we're likely not as much at odds as it may appear. Again, my primary objection is to the sweeping/broad-based mandates handed down unilaterally by authority figures, when a more measured approach can likely be more effective. A more measured/targeted approach would minimize/avoid current devastation to lives/livelihoods caused by more restrictive lockdowns.

Masks -- while limited in their ability to "block" smaller virus particles -- have their benefit when indoors, or even outdoors, when in close proximity to others, or when distancing is not a viable option. I disagree however, again, with this broad-based 'mask mandate', especially when outdoors and keeping distance. CONTEXT IS KEY.

The lack of context - the lack of useful information sharing to the public at large - and the outright overload of fear/scare tactics by media and govt is where I strongly object.

There is much misinfo/disinfo, and not just by those in leadership positions. Of course there are the reactionaries -- and I can appreciate how I may have presented myself here as one -- that believe all of the worst-possible outcomes that may come as a result of current measures. There are clicks that will be accumulated and monetized on both ends of the spectrum. Speaking for myself, I've adjusted my position on this since the early weeks of this outbreak, and may well do so again.

There is just cause to be cynical of any broad-sweeping measures, though. Particularly given the players involved.

Cheers.

And thanks.

Just cos I don't rate what you posted doesn't mean I feel that way about you either fwiw. Alot of this post is reasonable and I love it.

There have been no cases of this virus where I live, it'd be easy to see it as bullshit. And the lockdowns have meant that I can't visit my mum or brother in Victoria while they were locked down or even now because of border closures. I missed my brother in laws funeral. He killed himself, at the very start of all this, days before lockdowns started. (It didn't contribute to his death imo but i don't really know, I know other things would have, like his upcoming divorce). But it meant i couldn't be there for his oldest boy who I've always been close to.

I've rented this house for 25 years and a fortnight ago the bloke who owns it asked us to leave cos his kid wants to move here from the city. Fuck ... that just sucks.

But these are minor things compared to what is happening to people I know on the other side of the world. Or even my BiLs immediate family - parents, ex and kids..

I have a different attitude to this crisis. I think its worse than we are being told or than we have figured out yet. I know enough about how it works to be genuinely worried about it and its long term consequences. But not enough to be sure of that.

I view deaths like David Graeber's for example as possibly related to the virus because his death matches what happens to some people with this virus (and also people without it so its a possibility not something definite, it may be unrelated) and years of doing emergency stuff has taught me that in emergencies (and this still is one imo) the first thing you have to know is that you don't really know what is going on, all information is potentially wrong or inaccurate and you can't have any pre conceived ideas about what is happening cos you may end up in trouble cos you missed something.

Maybe I'm over reacting but:

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in human beings, has caused a serious public health issue.1 Attention to pancreatic injury is lacking, which may impact patients' prognosis. In this study, we explored the expression and distribution of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), the receptor of SARS-CoV-2, in the pancreas. Combined with clinical data, we showed that pancreatic injury can occur in some COVID-19 patients.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32334082/

That doesn't prove anything about Graeber but it does open the possibility...

Anyway cheers, thanks for being reasonable and reaching out like that.

Respect, love and peace

Joe

[Joe Hillshoist]

My mother is 75 and should have a decade of life left based on her side of the family's genetics. I have alot of friends in that age group too, many of whom have potential underlying respitory conditions from years of smoking or exposure to fires. I also have respitory damage, some from smoking some from decades of volunteer fire fighting. I love how people value the economy more than people like me.

And I get really pissed off when I see people say "Its only old people who die from this" as if they don't matter. My mother matters.

I don't value "the economy" more than people like you, or me, or the rest of us, which is why I think the policy response in the U.S. has been criminal in many more ways than the inadequacy regarding prevention measures.

Serious question: What kind of monetary relief has Australia provided during the time of the measures?

And what would it be like in Australia if the monetary relief had been like what has happened in the U.S.?

The monetary relief in Australia has been significant, especially compared to the disgraceful stuff that has happened where you are. People who lost jobs during the lockdown were paid up to 1500 bucks a week until the work resumed or for six months. Small business owners have had relief in terms of grants to keep workers on and cover other costs, there are moratoriums on mortgages and some evictions, most government payments like the dole or parenting assistance has doubled.

All this will probably change next year tho it could be ongoing and could actually provide useful evidence of how MMT works and is a better description of the economy than otherwise.

Also most of the resistence to lockdowns and the like has come from the right in politics and its specifically been in the context of don't fuck the economy for the sakes of a few meaningless deaths. So I didn't mean to associate that with you mob but it is something that really annoys me. Sorry.

We'd be fucked if we were in a similar situation to the US, even just on the economic relief side of the equation. If the monetary relief we had was like what you guys got it would be a nightmare and would maybe start a revolution, cos our economy was stuffed anyway, before the fires last year, they made it worse then COVID came.

Its heartbreaking what is happening over there (and elsewhere.)

[Joe Hillshoist]

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One possibility is an undercount of C19-related deaths, sure. I can see incentives to undercount as well as to overcount.

Another possibility is that 100,000 is the cost of the lockdown measures and the actively evil economic "response" to the crisis (4 trillion for corporate bailout, a trillion extra for the billionaires in wealth, and $1200 for most taxpayers since the start, equivalent to $6 a day, compared to more than $2K a month in Canada and most other industrialized places...)

.

So perhaps the 100, 000 is a combination of those things. Also if there is an undercount it doesn't have to be deliberate, at the start in NYC there were hundreds of extra deaths a day that weren't counted in the COVID toll cos there is no way to accurately assess why those people died. Its a fairly reasonable assumption that at least some of those deaths were due to COVID tho. its probably also reasonable to assume most of them were.

Now one of the above authors broke down the numbers, and her initial findings are as follows:

2020 Was Especially Deadly. Covid Wasn’t the Only Culprit.

By Denise Lu
Dec. 13, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... auses.html

The year 2020 has been abnormal for mortalities. At least 356,000 more people in the United States have died than usual since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the country in the spring. But not all of these deaths have been directly linked to Covid-19.

More than a quarter of deaths above normal have been from other causes, including diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, high blood pressure and pneumonia, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Untitled.jpg

[note at the bottom of that: "Data are from March 15 to Nov. 14. Not all causes are included. Deaths from external causes, such as suicides and drug overdoses, are not available because investigations are still underway in most cases."]

Some of these additional deaths may actually have been due to Covid-19, but they could have been undiagnosed or misattributed to other causes.

Or, long as it's supposition, the other way around. Even more of these excess deaths may be due to other causes, and attributed primarily to C19.

Many of them are most likely indirectly related to the virus

or the means of the lockdown, or the fact that the absence of ameliorative measures for the measures in the United States have turned the lockdown into an instrument of deadly class war

and caused by disruptions from the pandemic, including strains on health care systems, inadequate access to supplies like ventilators or people avoiding hospitals for fear of exposure to the coronavirus.

Here's the main graphic from the article.

Unt-2png.jpg

So as not to be misled note that the x-axis here, along the bottom of the graphic, is the baseline, the expected number of deaths, based on recent past years. So the excess deaths total (either category or everything above the x-axis here) are a fraction of the total deaths (e.g., 2.8 million in U.S. in 2018).

There's a lot more in graphic data presentation in the article, here are more key passages:

40,000 extra deaths from diabetes, Alzheimer’s, high blood pressure and pneumonia

[For U.S., 15% above normal]

In several states, deaths attributed to diabetes are at least 20 percent above normal this year.

[...]

Prolonged economic stress on families during the pandemic could also be contributing to increased deaths among those with chronic illnesses.

“You end up having to choose between your prescription medications or buying groceries or keeping a roof over your head,” said Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, whose research in JAMA has also shown deaths from other causes to be higher than normal.

[...]

Nationwide, deaths from Alzheimer’s disease, which usually affects older adults, are 12 percent above normal this year, with several Southern states seeing larger increases. This could be related to challenges in providing adequate care in nursing homes during the pandemic — deaths in nursing homes account for more than a third of the nation’s total coronavirus toll. The virus may have also aggravated some of these patients’ existing health conditions.

Other factors related to the pandemic like social isolation and challenges in getting emergency services could also have contributed to deaths, Dr. Woolf said.

[...]

New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, has seen pneumonia deaths reach about 50 percent above normal, more than double the percentage in the states with the highest rates.

[...]

[caveating]
Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in their reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years.

Dr. Woolf also warned that many people who are not captured in mortality statistics may still have adverse health outcomes.

“A person who survived the pandemic may end up deteriorating over the next few years because of problems that happened during the pandemic,” he said. This could include those who have missed routine checkups or have had delays in receiving proper treatment for an ailment.

I don't disagree with any of that. its all within the realms of possibility.

Did you look at the ABS (Aust stats bureau) stats I posted?

I'll try and post some graphs and then mention my opinions on some of this.

[Joe Hillshoist]

This is all from the Australian Bureau of statistics.

I'm specifically posting this because I want to compare some deaths in some circumstances.

First of all total deaths and a comparison to COVID infections.

[Joe Hillshoist]

ok

[Joe Hillshoist]

It obviously needs much better analysis than this but after a quick look these deaths from pneumonia, diabetes and dementia all correspond to the period of COVID infection more than the lockdowns. IMO anyway.

I'm not saying those other excess deaths are due to covid or ignoring the fact that some of the consequences of the lockdown are hidden in the future. Ie deaths from untreated or undiagnosed cancer, heart condition etc etc.

Covid is known to effect diabetes patients, the elderly and a consequence is pneumonia.

I am assuming these cases are counted separately to COVID too. If someone shows otherwise that is all good.

All the spikes in deaths from those conditions come during the time the virus was extremely active and spreading quickly. They seem to tail off before the lockdown ends (the first lockdown went from mid march to 15th of May.) So it implies the virus is responsible not the lockdown. At least to me. or more likely to be responsible than the lockdown.

Is there some way to match those 40000 excess deaths due to dementia, diabetes, pneumonia and heart disease, in your post earlier in the last few hours, to periods of high infection in areas of high infection because that will tell us more about what is actually going on with this situation?

Because it seems to me there is a chance, at least, that those excess deaths are directly due to COVID and haven't been counted in the official toll properly.

The second spike in thart first graph is centred in one state, Victoria so the national figures are perhaps not worth looking at for that situation. I'll try and chase the Vic figures up if I get the chance later.

[Cordelia]

@Joe Hillshoist

You are right, we should cull the old and infirm.

I've grown so, so tired of this emotive, mindless comeback from herd population group-speak .

My response above was my knee-jerk reaction to what I perceive to be a knee-jerk reaction from people who brand people quoting age and health statistics as embracing eugenics. (I didn't mean you personally.)

My mother is 75 and should have a decade of life left based on her side of the family's genetics. I have alot of friends in that age group too, many of whom have potential underlying respitory conditions from years of smoking or exposure to fires. I also have respitory damage, some from smoking some from decades of volunteer fire fighting. I love how people value the economy more than people like me.

And I get really pissed off when I see people say "Its only old people who die from this" as if they don't matter. My mother matters.

Of course she does and I apologize for coming across as being uncompassionate or indifferent.

Words escape me maybe because I'm finding more and more of what is happening to be overwhelming and incomprehensible. So much pain and suffering, God help us all.