stickdog99 wrote:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544210002537
SNIP
It is no longer justifiable to build oil depletion models that neglect the reality of economic substitution with alternative resources like oil sands or coal-based liquid fuels. Nor should economic models neglect the underlying physical, geological, and engineering considerations that fundamentally drive the economics of oil production. Future progress will require building integrated models that account for both the economic and physical realities of oil production.[/i]
Are you even reading this? It's a critique of oil supply prediction models, yes, but it's hardly making the case you seem to think, that the oil is therefore more plentiful. All it concludes in the end is what I've been saying: the easily accessed hydrocarbon wealth is done. He's claiming it's not "peak oil" because there are oil sands, coal-based liquid fuels, i.e., lower EROEI alternatives that can still be squeezed for a while, also given the assumption of technological miracles. But the easily accessed stuff has peaked.
Oh look, the IEA says the same thing:
Can you read what it says? The dark blue part is "peak oil," meaning: a decline in the easy light sweet crude that bubbleth forth when you poke at it. The new colors above that, which allow levels of oil consumption to stay where they are, are the unconventional (super dirty, lower EROEI sources). Why is this happening? Do you really think the cartel is so powerful and unified that they're faking the bottom part so that they can get at the dirty stuff while keeping the cheap stuff in reserve?
I reject firmly the assumption of those in denial on this thread that "peak oil propaganda" is coming from "them." Total bullshit. If "them" is the oil companies, most of them are firmly in the denialist camp, assuring everyone that the petroleum is never going to run out or will do so far enough into the future that absolutely nothing should change quite yet. How could they do otherwise? It's true a number of powerful people have acknowledged the problem, but most of them are still pretending it's not a problem and the growth economy continues forever. The last thing the consensus of the elites is going to announce to you is that the growth economy is over and done. You're confusing Mike Ruppert with Ben Bernanke, it seems.
So indeed, "them" has always been lying, and they're still lying now, since the elite consensus remains that hydrocarbon depletion (not just oil but now also the beginnings of the same process with coal) is not a problem, everything's going to be fixed by tar sands and engineering and a bit of extra nuclear.
For an idea of the actual propaganda coming from "them," see the post by TVC15 and my response, here:
http://rigorousintuition.ca/board2/view ... 45#p365760
I reject firmly the defamation that I have blamed Joe Sixpack for this problem more than I blame the oil companies, capitalism and the set-up of the industrial system itself. Bullshit. It's clear to me Joe Sixpack is a tool, not a mover. I'm just not willing to heroize him, or to hold him up as the image of normal, or to pretend he's so delicate you need to approach him on your knees and with apologies when you tell him his accustomed lifestyle is unsustainable and was always screwed. Fuck Joe Sixpack. He's a footnote.
Finally, I reject firmly the defamation that anyone's pretending that oil is impossible to replace. Anyone who thinks it's going to be a quick and relatively painless process is fooling themselves. Each prior transition in technology and energy modes under capitalism, like from coal to kerosene and then gas was a) always to a denser and more efficient form of energy that allowed greater immediate abundance of energy; and b) working with a relatively green field for the new infrastructure and a far smaller population than today, one not already depending on oil for food. The conditions today are not comparable. (Another delusion is about how Joe Sixpack is going to be reacting, when said Mr. Sixpack would still again vote for Reagan over Carter. Not that this widespread political benightment is the only or necessarily the most important factor, but it's also there.)
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but I AdMire YoU For It
