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by NeonLX » Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:39 pm
by maco144 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:34 pm
by Blue » Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:07 pm
Luther Blissett wrote:I just saw friends from Alaska last month and they're saying the past few winters have been hell on the ecosystems without the typical replenishment that comes with normal cold winters.
by divideandconquer » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:19 pm
by norton ash » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:50 pm
GREENLAND IS MELTING
The shrinking of the country’s ice sheet is triggering feedback loops that accelerate the global crisis. The floodgates may already be open.
By Elizabeth Kolbert
by PufPuf93 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:38 pm
Blue » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:07 pm wrote:Luther Blissett wrote:I just saw friends from Alaska last month and they're saying the past few winters have been hell on the ecosystems without the typical replenishment that comes with normal cold winters.
I was in Alaska in July, 2002 and it was 95F. I asked one of the Tlingit women I met about the weather. She said every year it was hotter and multiple fishing villages were being relocated inland which was very difficult and no help from the government. It made me sad then and it makes me extremely pissed off now to see people denying the fucking FACTS.
Thanks for posting good info Luther.
by maco144 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:47 pm
norton ash » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:50 pm wrote:Gee, D & C, that's not what the Danish climatologists say in this article.GREENLAND IS MELTING
The shrinking of the country’s ice sheet is triggering feedback loops that accelerate the global crisis. The floodgates may already be open.
By Elizabeth Kolbert
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/ ... is-melting
by norton ash » Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:11 am
by Iamwhomiam » Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:29 pm
divideandconquer » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:23 pm wrote:GLOBAL FREEZING: 15-year ICE AGE to hit in just 4 years as the sun prepares to 'HIBERNATE'A 15-YEAR long mini ice age could be due to hit the Northern hemisphere in just FOUR years as the sun prepares for 'hibernation' - triggering a barrage of cataclysmic events.
By Nathan Rao
PUBLISHED: 02:15, Tue, Nov 8, 2016 | UPDATED: 07:17, Tue, Nov 8, 2016
A team of experts have warned that huge seismic events, including volcanic eruptions, plunging global temperatures and destabilisation of the Earth's crust will become more common after worrying changes to the surface of the Sun were recorded.
It could take up to 15 years for solar activity to return to normal with extreme weather and freezing temperatures continuing until 2035.
The warning will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 the world faces increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.
Solar activity, measured by the appearance of sun spots, has been declining at a greater rate than at any other time in history, it has emerged.
The Sun is now without spots for the first time in five years after 21 days of minimal activity were observed through the course of 2016.
It could take 15 years for solar activity to return to normal
Although spots reappeared sporadically during the summer, repeated slumps of no activity were recorded through the year.
The trend has prompted scientists to warn that the world is hurtling towards a historic solar minimum event with output potentially dropping to an all-time low.
The world could be facing a 15 year winter
The phenomena are thought to drive extreme cold weather in Europe, including Britain, Northern America and across the lower southern hemisphere affecting New Zealand and parts of South America.
They have also been linked to major earthquakes in tremor hotspots igniting fears that major cities including Tokyo and Los Angeles could be facing the next ‘big one’.
Research by the The Space and Science Research Center in Florida revealed a strong link between low solar activity and seismic events.
The study looked at volcanic activity between 1650 - 2009 and earthquake activity between 1700 - 2009 comparing it to sunspots records.
It revealed a terrifying correlation between reduced solar activity and the largest seismic and volcanic events in recorded history.
Researchers at Japan’s Institute for Cosmic Ray Research concluded there is a link between global volcanic activity and solar activity lows.
Study author Toshikazu Ebisuzaki said: “Volcanoes with silica-rich and highly viscous magma tend to produce violent explosive eruptions that result in disasters in local communities and that strongly affect the global environment.
“We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojinsho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005).
“Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number.
“This strong association between eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically significant to a confidence level of 96.7 per cent.”
The frequency of sunspots is expected to rapidly decline over the next four years reaching a minimum between 2019 and 2020.
Solar expert Piers Corbyn of forecasting group WeatherAction warned the Earth faces another mini ice age with potentially devastating consequences.
He said: “We are now in a decline of solar activity and are on course for a very quiet period.
“This can cause a shift in the jet stream making it move further south and as a result it turns very cold in temperate latitudes including Europe, Britain and North America.
“We are anticipating temperatures to drop leading to ocean water freezing and ice drifts washing up around the coasts in Europe - we expect the next mini ice age.”
He said the link between huge changes in solar activity and earthquakes is down to a reduction in the strength of magnetic fields around the Earth.
Parts of the world will face extreme freezing temperatures and oceans could turn to iceGETTY
Parts of the world will face extreme freezing temperatures and oceans could turn to ice
Japan, America, the Philippines and quake prone regions of the Middle East and Asia are about to be put on high alert, he warned.
He explained fewer solar flares associated with a minimum period reduce the magnetic pull over the surface of the Earth.
This stops all movement of tectonic plates, even the frequent harmless shifts which go unnoticed, allowing huge pressure to build up underneath the Earths crust.
The result, Mr Corbyn said, is much like a pressure cooker with any slightest movement triggering a massive earthquake.
“Think of it like comparing two bags of sugar being filled,” he said.
“If you have one with a small hole in the bottom it is constantly emptying while more is being added so there is no overall effect.
coldest city Siberia iceGETTY
Much of the world could look like the world's current coldest city in Siberia
“The other has no hole so it gets fuller and fuller until eventually it bursts, this is the sort of thing we are taking about.
“What we expect is fewer earthquakes overall, but more extremely severe ones in at risk regions, and this is very worrying.
“Tokyo, Los Angeles and other big cities could all be looking at the next big one.”
Scientists predict the number of observed sun spots will continue to decline over the next few years in the run up to 2020.
Eventually the ‘blank period’ will stretch into months triggering the start of the next Solar Minimum likely to last 15 years..
It will mark the 24th cycle since 1755 when solar activity was first recorded and the link made to climate and changes in terrestrial conditions.
In Britain, the main threat is of a repeat of the last significant solar minimum which triggered the infamous little ice age in the 1600s.
The so-called maunder minimum saw exceptionally harsh winters ravage the UK and northern Europe and led to the River Thames freezing over.
A Met Office-led study published last year claimed although the effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain could see cooler than average winters in years to come.
A spokesman at the time said: "A return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt global warming.
"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect European and eastern US winters.”
Solar physicist David Hathaway, of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Centre, added: “The solar minimum is coming, and it's coming sooner than we expected."
by stillrobertpaulsen » Tue Nov 22, 2016 3:38 pm
Here's How the Rising Sea Will Remake the Coastlines of Endangered U.S. States and Drown Much of the World We Know
New York could be unlivable by 2085.
By Reynard Loki / AlterNet
November 22, 2016
Climate change has been steadily shifting the planetary environment in myriad ways, from receding glaciers and melting sea ice to longer and more intense heat waves, droughts and storms. The changing environment has pushed many plant and animal species out of their normal habitats. And one dramatic effect is going to force humans to relocate: the rise in sea level.
The rising seas are caused by the additional water coming from melting land ice, as well as the expansion of seawater, which happens when it warms. Since reliable record keeping began in 1880, the global sea level has risen by approximately 8 inches. Scientists project that by 2100, the ocean may rise an additional 1 to 4 feet. And it won’t stop there, says NASA, “because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface.”
Making matters worse, storm surges from an increase in extreme weather—again, a product of manmade climate change—will likely increase flooding in regions already impacted by sea level rise. In many areas, these surges could push sea levels to at least 4 feet above high tide by 2030. By 2050, threatened areas hit by serious storms could experience surges up to 5 feet higher than high tide.
And that’s not all. Almost unbelievably, the Greenland and Arctic ice sheets are so massive that they actually exert a gravitational pull on the ocean, causing even higher sea levels for nearby coastlines to deal with.
According to Climate Central, an independent environment nonprofit, “Carbon emissions causing 4°C of warming—what business-as-usual points toward today—could lock in enough sea level rise to submerge land currently home to 470 to 760 million people, with unstoppable rise unfolding over centuries.”
That’s because even if humanity were to stop emitting carbon altogether right now, the carbon we’ve already put into the atmosphere will continue to heat up the planet for hundreds of years to come.
This NASA chart tracks the change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites. The rate of change has been 3.4mm per year. (image: NASA)
For some island nations, the rising sea has already claimed several landmass victims. The Solomon Islands has experienced annual sea levels rise as much as 10mm over the past two decades, according to an Australian study published in May in the online journal Environmental Research Letters. Earlier this year, the ocean swallowed up five of the archipelago’s islands—a breathtaking event that is believed to be the first scientific confirmation of the climate change impact on Pacific coastlines. The scientists say their study "confirms the numerous anecdotal accounts from across the Pacific of the dramatic impacts of climate change on coastlines and people.”
The islands, which were uninhabited, ranged in area from 2.5 to 12.4 acres. However, large tracts of land across six different inhabitated islands had large swaths of land washed into the sea. On two of those, entire villages were destroyed and people forced to relocate. “The sea has started to come inland, it forced us to move up to the hilltop and rebuild our village there away from the sea," said Sirilo Sutaroti, the 94-year-old leader of the Paurata tribe on Nararo Island.
But tiny Pacific islands aren’t the only places that will be severely impacted by rising seas. Here in the United States, coastal areas have already felt the impact and many cities are making preparations for the future. From New York to Sacramento, Jacksonville to Virginia Beach and even remote Alaskan fishing villages, millions of Americans in more than 400 municipalities live within just four feet of the current high tide line. According to a 2015 study conducted by American and German researchers, it’s already too late for many of those cities—including Miami and New Orleans—which are on track to be overcome by the rising sea.
A 2012 study by the U.S. Geological Survey found that portions of the U.S. Atlantic coast are experiencing rates of sea-level rise that are three to four times faster than global rates over the past quarter century. "Since about 1990, sea-level rise in the 600-mile stretch of coastal zone from Cape Hatteras, N.C. to north of Boston, Mass.—coined a 'hotspot' by scientists—has increased 2 - 3.7 millimeters per year; the global increase over the same period was 0.6 - 1.0 millimeter per year," USGS said.
"New York has experienced at least a foot of sea-level rise since 1900, mostly due to expansion of warming ocean water," according to the New York Department of Environmental Conservation, noting that by 2100, current projections have the city's sea level as much as 50 inches higher than it is today.
This NASA chart, derived from coastal tide gauge data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1870 to 2000. (image: NASA)
In 2007, New York's lawmakers created a statewide Sea Level Rise Task Force to review the projections and prepare for the future. In its 2011 final report, the task force concluded that, "while the extent of the impacts to coastal communities from a rising sea are not fully known, even the most conservative projections make clear that there will be dramatic changes in this century." They warned that every single New York tidal coastal community would be impacted by sea-level rise. That includes, of course, New York City, America’s most populated urban center.
The task force made several recommendations, including providing financial support for adaptation-planning, post-storm recovery and redevelopment.
“Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing our city, our country and our planet," said New York Mayor Bill de Blasio in April, as he announced the Raised Shorelines project to help low-lying neighborhoods mitigate impacts of sea-level rise, part of the city's $20 billion climate resiliency program. “For a coastal city like ours, rising sea levels mean rising risk for our neighborhoods, infrastructure and economy," de Blasio said.
But mitigation can only go so far. Under the worst-case scenario, New York could be unlivable by the year 2085.
While scientists are sure that the seas will continue to rise, what’s unclear is how fast they will rise, and which regions will be the most impacted. “This is the burning question,” said Andrea Dutton, an assistant professor of geology at University of Florida. “How quickly will the sea levels rise, and by how much?”
Image at link above
This animated timeline maps, year by year, how the total number of locked-in cities could climb to more than 1,500, if pollution continues unchecked through the end of the century. (infographic: Climate Central)
While Dutton’s university is safely inland (for now), Florida is viewed by researchers as ground-zero for disastrous sea-level rise. The Miami chapter of the Southeastern Florida Compact—a local climate-change coalition whose members include city officials, scientists and concerned citizens—is only planning in five-year cycles. “Nobody knows what things are going to look like in 50 to 100 years,” said Nicole Hefty, chief of the Office of Sustainability at Miami-Dade County. “We can speak for smaller years and adapt in that way.”
“Florida is in the crosshairs of climate change,” writes Ben Strauss, a vice president at Climate Central, which spent two years analyzing the specific threat to the Sunshine State. “Rising seas, a population crowded along the coast, porous bedrock, and the relatively common occurrence of tropical storms put more real estate and people at risk from storm surges aggravated by sea-level rise in Florida, than any other state by far.”
Florida - 1 meter sea level rise. (image: Maitri/Flickr CC)
Strauss points out that in Florida, around 2.4 million people live within just 4 feet of the local high tide line. That’s almost half the national risk right there. In Miami-Dade and Broward counties alone, there are “more people below 4 feet than any state, except Florida itself and Louisiana,” he adds. After the Sunshine State, the next three states that will most likely be overcome by rising ocean water are California, Louisiana and New York.
Andrew Freeman, the science editor at Mashable, writes that in New York City, “the contrast between the high emissions scenario and low emissions scenario would mean the difference between submerging all of newly trendy Red Hook and Cobble Hill neighborhoods in Brooklyn, New York, as well as the new Brooklyn Bridge Park and a swath of prized real estate in southwest Manhattan, versus keeping those areas dry.”
Taking action on climate change now—particularly to avoid the “business-as-usual” 4°C global surface temperature increase—could mean the difference for countless communities across the world. That action is in the works: on November 4, the Paris climate agreement went into effect. The deal seeks to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. But the accord isn’t bound by law; there are no penalties imposed on nations that fail to meet their carbon reduction targets.
The fact that the agreement is non-binding has been a source of ridicule among many environmentalists. But that doesn’t render it meaningless, argues Michael Burger, executive director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School. “International agreements operate under good faith,” he said. “Whether a country is an upstanding member of the international community is what’s at stake.”
In the coming decades, humanity's energy choices are critical—particularly in China and the U.S., which together account for nearly 40 percent of worldwide emissions. The choices we make today will determine whether or not future generations will be living in a low-emissions scenario or the current business-as-usual trajectory.
The infographic above was produced by Eco2greetings.com.
by Luther Blissett » Tue Nov 22, 2016 5:05 pm
PufPuf93 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:38 pm wrote:Blue » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:07 pm wrote:Luther Blissett wrote:I just saw friends from Alaska last month and they're saying the past few winters have been hell on the ecosystems without the typical replenishment that comes with normal cold winters.
I was in Alaska in July, 2002 and it was 95F. I asked one of the Tlingit women I met about the weather. She said every year it was hotter and multiple fishing villages were being relocated inland which was very difficult and no help from the government. It made me sad then and it makes me extremely pissed off now to see people denying the fucking FACTS.
Thanks for posting good info Luther.
I mentioned elsewhere at RI that I had worked as a contract forest ecologist / silviculturist on several large US Forest Service Environmental Impact Statements back in the early 1990s on the Tongass National Forest
For the last, we lived on a floating camp for a 190,000 acres project on mainland Southeast Alaska east of Admiralty Island about a 1/2 hour flight from Petersburg. The planning area was nearly all pristine, lacking even trails and showing almost nil human activity. Mostly we skipped around on two helicopters dedicated to the project but also had three Boston Whaler type outboards.
There was a large contingent of various scientists and technicians including archeologists and cultural resource specialists. There was close to 150 miles of shoreline. There was several days with some of the lowest tides of the year (some of the world's most extreme tides occur in Alaska: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/highesttide.html )
Everyone on the project including service staff for the floating camp assisted the archaeologists in surveying the shoreline for pre-historic human sites during the low tides. This is in what is now considered Tlingit territory. A substantial village site that almost all the time was submerged except for the low tide was unexpectedly found. The lead archaeologist was showing me a large spear point made of chert that had been found and as I held it up to a light for a better look my mind was blown. There spear point was chipped centered on a fossil trilobite within the chert. The archaeologist nor her crew had not noticed the fossil.
The geology and forests of southeast Alaska are very young. The forests are simple in species composition being western hemlock and Sitka spruce with Alaska yellow cedar or sometimes to the more east western red cedar in the transitions into muskeg (where the soil does not drain because it is flat and trees do not grow.) The number of associated understory species and shrubs and various smaller plants are also lacking in the number that occur in older and more temperate landscapes.
So sometime since the last Ice Age the ocean along the Inland Passage had already risen to place under water where humans had comfortably lived for a period of time (and probably the highest human occupancy ever for that specific area). The archaeologists and Feds were excited about the find as it was thought to be the oldest site found in Southeast Alaska to that point in time. That type of data and mapping is not released to the general public and is available to professionals on an as needed basis to protect the sites from vandalism. I have no idea what was all discovered and concluded as my work ended in 1995. The project was to have been roaded and logged for the pulp mill then in Ketchikan and the EIS was approved but challenged in the courts and never developed (which was my opinion as the best result).
by PufPuf93 » Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:48 pm
Luther Blissett » Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:05 pm wrote:PufPuf93 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:38 pm wrote:Blue » Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:07 pm wrote:Luther Blissett wrote:I just saw friends from Alaska last month and they're saying the past few winters have been hell on the ecosystems without the typical replenishment that comes with normal cold winters.
I was in Alaska in July, 2002 and it was 95F. I asked one of the Tlingit women I met about the weather. She said every year it was hotter and multiple fishing villages were being relocated inland which was very difficult and no help from the government. It made me sad then and it makes me extremely pissed off now to see people denying the fucking FACTS.
Thanks for posting good info Luther.
I mentioned elsewhere at RI that I had worked as a contract forest ecologist / silviculturist on several large US Forest Service Environmental Impact Statements back in the early 1990s on the Tongass National Forest
For the last, we lived on a floating camp for a 190,000 acres project on mainland Southeast Alaska east of Admiralty Island about a 1/2 hour flight from Petersburg. The planning area was nearly all pristine, lacking even trails and showing almost nil human activity. Mostly we skipped around on two helicopters dedicated to the project but also had three Boston Whaler type outboards.
There was a large contingent of various scientists and technicians including archeologists and cultural resource specialists. There was close to 150 miles of shoreline. There was several days with some of the lowest tides of the year (some of the world's most extreme tides occur in Alaska: http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/highesttide.html )
Everyone on the project including service staff for the floating camp assisted the archaeologists in surveying the shoreline for pre-historic human sites during the low tides. This is in what is now considered Tlingit territory. A substantial village site that almost all the time was submerged except for the low tide was unexpectedly found. The lead archaeologist was showing me a large spear point made of chert that had been found and as I held it up to a light for a better look my mind was blown. There spear point was chipped centered on a fossil trilobite within the chert. The archaeologist nor her crew had not noticed the fossil.
The geology and forests of southeast Alaska are very young. The forests are simple in species composition being western hemlock and Sitka spruce with Alaska yellow cedar or sometimes to the more east western red cedar in the transitions into muskeg (where the soil does not drain because it is flat and trees do not grow.) The number of associated understory species and shrubs and various smaller plants are also lacking in the number that occur in older and more temperate landscapes.
So sometime since the last Ice Age the ocean along the Inland Passage had already risen to place under water where humans had comfortably lived for a period of time (and probably the highest human occupancy ever for that specific area). The archaeologists and Feds were excited about the find as it was thought to be the oldest site found in Southeast Alaska to that point in time. That type of data and mapping is not released to the general public and is available to professionals on an as needed basis to protect the sites from vandalism. I have no idea what was all discovered and concluded as my work ended in 1995. The project was to have been roaded and logged for the pulp mill then in Ketchikan and the EIS was approved but challenged in the courts and never developed (which was my opinion as the best result).
Whenever you post your stories, I wind up pondering them for days.
And thanks Blue.
by Blue » Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:20 pm
By no means did I tell this narrative to diminish the reality of (human caused) global warming. My other posts indicate my belief that we are past any tipping point and the choices that remain are how humanity will adapt and manage a certain decline in population.
One item I ponder is how long, when, where, and how humanity has existed at relatively high levels of self-awareness. We are a plastic species but maybe not so plastic as individuals. We are confused about our own history of two thousand or ten thousand or 10s of thousands or more years, still a blip in the history of life on Earth or geologic record. Nature erases relatively fast especially with a timeline of millions of years but the Earth Abides. I ponder whether humans in the past had relatively high self-awareness and even (however different) technology but did not metastasize across the planet so as to foul their own habitat.
by Joe Hillshoist » Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:37 pm
maco144 » 19 Nov 2016 07:34 wrote:
Has this been posted? I havent dived into this thread yet however I perceive there must be a violent reaction to anything coming from realclimatescience.com
by DrEvil » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:47 am
divideandconquer » Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:19 am wrote:According to the The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Greenland is actually gaining ice at a record rate
As mentioned, satellites measuring the ice sheet mass have observed a loss of around 200 Gt/year over the last decade.
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