Telephones Cut Off, Mousavi Arrested, Rafsanjani Resigns

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Postby AlicetheKurious » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:27 pm

"She is now forever in my pocket"

I doubt that. But we do know whose pocket he is in, don't we?

Ledeen, Sobhani and Morris Amitay, former director of the principal Israeli lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) joined forces at the American Enterprise Institute in a seminar entitled The Future of Iran, in which they called for regime change. AIPAC has indicated support for the restoration of Reza Pahlavi to the throne, although they wish to remain in the background, as reported by Mark Perelman on May 16 in the New York Jewish Daily Forward.

Perelman quotes one AIPAC official as stating that “the Jewish groups are telling Reza that they will give him private support and help arrange meetings with US officials,” Since Sept. 11, 2001, Sobhani has appeared widely in the media, urging the US government to support an internal revolution in Iran. His appearances can be seen as growing endorsement of his possible role as a future leader in a post-coup Iran, as his image is honed by the media-savvy Bush administration.


Link

And so do the Iranian people.
"If you're not careful the newspapers will have you hating the oppressed and loving the people doing the oppressing." - Malcolm X
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:32 pm

http://counterpunch.org/bratich06252009.html

The Iranian Protests and the Mainstream Media

You Provide the Tweets, We'll Provide the Info War

By JACK Z. BRATICH

We can all remember a moment when we gazed up at the sky and used our imagination to make familiar shapes out of the clouds. In folk wisdom, seers practice aeromancy, a form of divination that involves observing atmospheric phenomena and nephomancy, the divination by studying clouds).

What we are witnessing in the Iranian situation resembles this practice, only now the clouds are made of information. This infosphere is not the same as the old chestnut, the “fog of war.” It’s more like what I call the fog-machine of war, and its analysts are performing infomancy.

People are seeing their hopes, fears, and their shadows in this data mist. One of these faith-based assertions is that more info equals more democracy. It’s not just that observers consider the anti-regime protests to be democratic, but they believe the use of social media is inherently democratic (i.e. more freedom of expression). But we were given official notice early in Obama’s administration that cyberwar is a renewed threat, so why not take heed and understand Iran as a case of warfare? In that light, more info = more infowar; more information means more disinformation. Propaganda used to come in print form and be dropped from the skies. Now it’s laterally spread through peer-to-peer networks, creating a bottom-up disinfosphere.

What happens then? Info droplets get absorbed by more traditional news outlets. Cable news now functions as a mechanism that selects from a haze of unverifiable information and amplifies its choices. CNN seems to be the best example. At least they’re upfront about it: an anchor previewed an upcoming story by saying they’d be bringing us reports “true or not.” Jack Cafferty noted that the information from Iraq was “Alive but Cloudy”. Even their original segment on Green martyr Neda opened with the disclaimer “the facts surrounding her life and death are difficult to confirm.” This didn’t stop them from replaying the garish spectacle so often that it begs comparison with the paltry coverage of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi and Afghani victims of US aggression.

Professional journalism has been criticized for years for its disproportionate reliance on official sources. With the Valerie Plame case and other escapades in the secret sphere, journalists’ dependence on anonymous insiders also came under scrutiny. In Iran, the anonymous sources are covered in “people power.” The question remains: are they insiders?

Are people tweeting from the streets or from other lands? Are they eyewitnesses or I-spies? Perhaps these news outlets could take a tip from entertainment tabloid television program EXTRA!, which at least makes an attempt at info-sorting with a regular segment called “Rumor Control.” A member of CNN’s gushing Twitterati, Ali Velshi acknowledged that the biggest problem is getting the true story. In a nod to the power and problems of crowdsourcing he admitted, “We are as good as you are.” Well, if that’s the case then we’re in trouble: CNN ought to keep its weekly program Reliable Sources, but refer to its other 167 week hours as Unreliable Sources. Witting or not, these news networks collectively retool the famous line allegedly telegraphed by William Randolph Hearst, updating it for the digital age: “You furnish the tweets, we’ll furnish the war.”

Meanwhile, key actors in the Iran uprising remain obscured. Take Mostafa Hassani, whom the Nation calls the “the whiz kid who came up with the idea of using green.” The Guardian UK gives him a bigger role than just the resident graphic designer, stating that he is “leading Mousavi's green campaign.” Some basic searches turn up almost nothing else on this shadowy character. You would think such a figure would get more attention, but that’s the way it goes when infomancy is performed poorly: sometimes you ignore the important patterns in order to project your wishes.

In sum, the very basics of reporting (when, where, who, what?) have become unverifiable. However, the “why” seems relatively clear for pundits, anchors, and other infomancers. Lingering Cold War fantasies dominate their visions, now with a theocratic twist: People Power vs. Iron Fists, Democracy vs. Dictatorship, Freedom vs. Repression. Neglected is the soft control of information warfare. We could call this a Cyborg Fist in the Velvet Glove. Or maybe it’s leather. Dr. Strangelove, anyone?

Jack Bratich is Assistant Professor of Journalism and Media Studies at Rutgers University. He is also a zine librarian at ABC No Rio in New York City. This summer he will be co-teaching a course on Affect and Politics at Bluestockings Bookstore through their Popular Education program. He can be reached at jbratich@gmail.com
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:55 pm

http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/s ... ganda.html

Yesterday I was watching Al-Arabiyya TV (the station of King Fahd's brother-in-law) and it was really comical. The Saudi propagandist, or anchor, was yelling at the Iranian guest: he wanted to know why Iran can't conduct a free and fair election. I kid you not, and he seemed agitated.


http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/06/brutal.html

"Iranian officials stepped up efforts to crush the remaining resistance to a disputed presidential election on Wednesday, as security forces overwhelmed a small group of protesters with brutal beatings, tear gas and gunshots in the air." Notice that when Western media approve of certain demonstrations or movements, they allow themselves to insert editorial labels and comments into the text of the article itself. I mean, the New York Times would never describe regular Israeli shooting at demonstrators as brutal. What gives?
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 2:18 pm

JackRiddler wrote:By the way, as for the Rafsanjani of the thread title - you know, the one who according to the OP resigned all posts a dozen days ago:

Head of Iran's Expediency Council, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will support efforts to end the post-election tension in the country, an Iranian lawmaker says.


So, Mousavi wasn't arrested, Rafsanjani didn't resign... Let's hope that at least the telephones were cut off.
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 2:39 pm

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/jun20 ... -j24.shtml

The propaganda war against Iran

By Bill Van Auken
24 June 2009


The US media, led by the New York Times, is continuing its concerted propaganda campaign against Iran over charges that the government stole the June 12 presidential election. There is not even a semblance of objectivity in the media coverage, which parrots the charges of the opposition headed by defeated presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi as fact and dismisses the government’s claims as lies.

The opposition is lauded as democratic and reformist, while incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his supporters are portrayed as virtual fascists. One would scarcely imagine that the two men represent rival factions within the same ruling establishment.

Responsibility for the violence in the streets of Tehran is attributed entirely to the government and its security forces.

No connection is drawn between these events and the broader situation in the region, where the US is waging two wars, on Iran’s eastern and western borders, both aimed at establishing American hegemony over the oil-rich territory.

Suggestions that the US and its intelligence agencies are involved in the turmoil in Iran are dismissed as ludicrous, fabrications by an Iranian government trying to divert public opinion. This, in a country where Washington overthrew a democratically elected government in 1953, propped up a brutal dictator, the Shah, for more than a quarter of a century, and has carried out covert CIA operations in the recent period involving the use of special operations troops on Iranian soil.

The New York Times and Venezuela

If all of this sounds familiar, it should. Little more than seven years ago, a very similar media campaign, once again spearheaded by the New York Times, was carried out against the government of President Hugo Chávez in Venezuela.

Then, as now, standards of journalistic objectivity were thrown out the window. Chávez was vilified and his opponents, drawn largely from Venezuela’s oligarchy and privileged layers of the middle class, were portrayed as crusaders for democracy. Statements by the opposition were reported as fact or treated with the utmost respect, while the government’s contentions were subjected to derision.

A few quotations from the New York Times of March and April 2002 give the flavor of this campaign. On March 26, the newspaper published a story entitled “Venezuela’s President vs. Military: Is Breach Widening?” The content of the piece made it clear that the answer was, hopefully, yes.

“The rebellious officers helped energize a disjointed but growing opposition movement that is using regular street protests to try to weaken Mr. Chávez, whose autocratic style and left-wing policies have alienated a growing number of people.”

It continued, “Although he promised a ‘revolution’ to improve the lives of the poor, Mr. Chávez has instead managed to rankle nearly every sector—from the church to the press to the middle class—with his combative style, populist speeches and dalliances with Fidel Castro...”

In the Times’ coverage of Venezuela—as in Iran—the phrase “nearly every sector” was used to exclude the overwhelming majority of the population, the urban and rural poor, which had twice given Chávez the widest electoral victories in the country’s history.

Subsequent articles described Chávez as a “left-wing autocrat” and “a mercurial left-leaning leader whose policies had antagonized much of Venezuelan society.”

The newspaper favorably presented a speech by a former energy minister to a group of “striking” managers at the state-run oil company, who declared, “This can only end with the president resigning... This is about him or us. It is a choice between democracy and dictatorship.”

There was the question of violence. When unidentified gunmen opened fire during a mass opposition march on the Miraflores presidential palace—a throng comparable in both its size and class composition to those that have taken to the streets of Iran—the 19 deaths that resulted were all attributed to government security forces or Chavez’s armed supporters.

It subsequently emerged that a number of the dead were among the crowd that had gathered to defend Chávez and that much of the fire had come from the Caracas metropolitan police force, loyal to the city’s mayor, Alfredo Peña, a fierce opponent of the president who enjoyed US support.

In its coverage of the clash, the Times sought out Peña, who, unsurprisingly, blamed all of the carnage on Chávez.

The purpose of all of this became clear in the wake of the demonstration, when a section of the military, together with Venezuela’s big business association and the US-sponsored bureaucracy of the right-wing union federation, joined in a coup that briefly overthrew Chávez.

In the immediate aftermath of the coup, the Times showed its hand in an editorial entitled “Hugo Chávez Departs.”

“Venezuelan democracy is no longer threatened by a would-be dictator,” the Times crowed. “Mr. Chávez, a ruinous demagogue, stepped down after the military intervened and handed power to a respected business leader...”

The newspaper insisted that Washington had no role in the overthrow, “denying him [Chávez] the role of nationalist martyr. Rightly, his removal was a purely Venezuelan affair.”

Nothing could more clearly express the conception of “democracy” shared by the Times and the US ruling establishment. A regime created through the military overthrow of an elected government was “democratic” so long as it was more amenable to US interests. In Venezuela, which supplies 15 percent of US imported oil, these interests are clear.

As for the claim that the coup was “purely Venezuelan,” this was a cover-up of a concerted and protracted US destabilization operation, in which the Times played an indispensable role.

The “democratic” coup, however, lasted just two days. Chávez was restored to power as a result of masses of urban poor taking to the streets against the new regime and sections of the military turning against it. The Times backpedaled slightly, admitting that it had greeted Chávez’s overthrow with “applause,” while regretting that it had “overlooked the undemocratic manner in which he was removed.”

In Iran, the New York Times is following essentially the same script, albeit it on a grander scale.

Once again: Who is the Nation’s Iran correspondent, Robert Dreyfuss?

The Nation has not provided any answer to the question posed by the World Socialist Web Site on Monday: “Who is Robert Dreyfuss?”

As we explained, Dreyfuss is a contributing editor of the magazine, which presents itself as the voice of “progressive” politics in America. He wrote a book—Hostage to Khomeini—in 1981, calling for the Reagan administration to organize the overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran and denouncing President Jimmy Carter for having betrayed the Shah.

At the time, Dreyfuss was a member of the fascistic organization led by Lyndon LaRouche, serving as “Middle East intelligence director” for its magazine Executive Intelligence Review.

This is the man that the Nation relies upon as its chief commentator on “politics and national security” and who it sent to Iran to cover the election. He has echoed the line promoted by the New York Times, declaring himself in favor of a “color revolution” in Iran.

A comparison of what he wrote then and what he writes today only makes it all the more urgent that the Nation explain why such an individual is one of its editors.

This arises particularly in relation to one of Dreyfuss’s principal sources during his recent trip to Iran, Ibrahim Yazdi, Iran’s former foreign minister and a so-called “dissident.” An article published by the Nation on June 13 entitled “Iran’s Ex-Foreign Minister Yazdi: It’s A Coup,” consisted largely of an interview with this man, who said the election was rigged and illegitimate.

In his book Hostage to Khomeini, however Dreyfuss said that Yazdi was part of a “coterie of experienced, Western-trained intelligence agents.”

He claimed that Yazdi’s “directions from Washington and London came via the ‘professors,’ men such as Professor Richard Cottam of the University of Pittsburgh,” whom he described as a former “field officer for the CIA attached to the US embassy in Tehran.”

Dreyfuss wrote: “Yazdi’s wife once described Cottam as ‘a very close friend of my husband, the one person who knows more about him than even I do.’”

Elsewhere in the book, Dreyfuss refers to Yazdi as “Mossad-tainted.”

The question is: which Dreyfuss are we to believe—the one who exposed Yazdi as an intelligence agent for the US, Britain and Israel, or the one who now quotes him at length as an advocate of “democracy” and “reform”?

Dreyfuss has never publicly repudiated what he wrote in 1981. Was he lying then, or is he lying now? The Nation is obliged to answer. Its readership deserves to know what Dreyfuss is doing at the magazine.
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Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:18 pm

.

NPR's Brian Lehrer Show is a vehicle for tendentious nationalist and consumerist dispensations with a liberal cast, especially on "security issues." What makes it oft-unbearable is the tyranny of format: no point will be left developed. "We only have a minute left," you see, it's a natural law, and nature abhors slow talking guests who pause to think.

Anyway, today he had this:

Understanding Iran

Reza Aslan, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, columnist at the Daily Beast.com and author of How to Win a Cosmic War: God, Globalization and the End of the War on Terror analyzes the situation in Iran and the role of the Islamic Republic in the lives of post-revolution Iranians.


http://www.wnyc.org/shows/bl/episodes/2009/06/25

The discussion proceeded from the premise that the election was obviously fixed, no further elaboration required; thus it was all about "the people" versus "the dictatorship."

I was taken as first caller, knowing well that listeners who challenge the day's line get one shot at a brief question, no more. I was even introduced as a "challenger," which primes me for dismissal. So I pointed out that fraud-as-proven was the now-unspoken premise, and said that it wasn't established to this outsider, given how enormously popular Ahmedinejad appears to be outside Tehran, and given pre-election polls showing him ahead. Then, as expected, I was bumped off the line.

Aslan's extended answer was all about what "one cannot believe," with Aslan's premises assumed as givens, and not about any concrete evidence of fraud. (He even has a sort-of gimme with the provinces where there were more votes than voters, although that may only reflect the fact that Iranians can vote outside their province).

To wit:

- The Western poll showing a 2-1 advantage for Ahmedinejad was a week before the official beginning of election season, which only lasts three weeks, so Aslan argued this was comparable to a poll of American voters in January 2007, almost two years before the 2008 election! Amazing sophistry. A month still leaves only 1/20th the time for people to change their minds, and of course the ballot was already established and everyone knew what the available choices were. Three weeks of a Mousavi surge are supposed to make up for four years of Ahmedi's constant campaigning.

- Comparing Ahmedinejad's first round results in 2005 to this year's. Omitting to mention his (undisputed) second-round results in 2005, which at 62% were almost identical to this year's, and the fact that he's since had four years to barnstorm incessantly, dispense favors and funds, network and firm up his base as the incumbent (with the assist of a superpower that constantly provided him with a credible foreign threat of war to help rally the patriots around his banner).

- The Azeri province dodge, in which we're told Mousavi is Azeri and thus his losing at home is "like Obama losing Harlem to McCain," as Aslan said (Harlem is Obama's home province? Never mind.) Once again, the argument proceeds not from the evidence (for-now unavailable, which I agree is a problem) but from first premises: what Aslan says should happen as a function of "home advantage." (Is this perhaps akin to what Gore thought should happen in Tennessee in 2000?) Second, while mentioning (and downplaying) that Ahmedinejad made speeches in Azeri, Aslan omitted that Khamenei is also Azeri, and that Ahmedi was running openly as the Supreme Guide's secular front man.

- Increased turn-out among the young and "in urban centers," where again the first premise is that they naturally want freedom and must have voted for Mousavi, while characterizing Ahmedi's base as "rural areas and villages." But what about the huge crowds turning out for Ahmedi in the provincial capitals? And after the election, where were the pro-Mousavi rallies outside Tehran? Tehran itself is 20% of the population and split between North Tehran and the working-class districts that long ago made Ahmedinejad the mayor.

During this Lehrer gave the oral equivalent of a vigorous bobblehead nod, then took a very edifying call from a US resident Iranian woman who complained about voting irregularities at the Iranian Consulate in Manhattan, engaging her in a friendly dialogue. He then went on to a piece about Google now offering Farsi translations, with a Google programming designer as the new guest.

Twitter, Google, Facebook. I love revolution as a foreign affair consumed through corporate outlets. The fact that you, too, can do your part by logging in and going Green was emphasized. Capitalism is amazing. For decades its culture has caused Americans (insofar as they were interested) to consume international events like TV shows, but this is not enough. It's still not generating profit with specificity. You've got to take that predisposition for the spectacle and commodify it, enclose the niches, put a brand on it: "Brought to you by..." And hey, you just know that these companies would not behave any differently if millions of Americans were protesting a vote they thought was fraudulent in the streets of US cities. Or if the uproar was in Peru, Saudi Arabia, or the Palestinian enclaves, we'd be getting it all through tweets and goggles, right?

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Postby Sweejak » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:30 pm

All three have connections with the media agency, Benador Associates


The same outfit that arranged the congressional baby incubator theatrics.
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Postby sunny » Thu Jun 25, 2009 3:33 pm

Thank you Jack.

Mr. Aslan is becoming the star of the 'show' it seems. So attractive, so reasonable, so many impressive credentials, and a 'progressive' to boot. Even lesbians can't help falling for his charms.

And thank you BAR and WSWS for remaining sane and credible.

I feel like crying.
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Postby JackRiddler » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:36 pm

sunny wrote:Thank you Jack.

Mr. Aslan is becoming the star of the 'show' it seems. So attractive, so reasonable, so many impressive credentials, and a 'progressive' to boot. Even lesbians can't help falling for his charms.

And thank you BAR and WSWS for remaining sane and credible.

I feel like crying.


Ditto.

I forgot Aslan's most oft-repeated point: That the election results were counted in "two hours." Didn't that used to be three? Of course, in most regions it was more like eight hours, and the next morning they were claiming 66% of the vote had been counted. Most important omission, of course, is that Mousavi declared himself the winner in a landslide by the same margin well before the government made any announcement.

Eight days since The Guardian's claims on June 17th about Mohamed Asgari's death in a "suspicious" crash came with the promise of a follow-up, still no further item, not even to say that the crackdown is preventing reporting on it.

http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=asgari

http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?sea ... ian=Search

.

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Postby Jeff » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:52 pm

sunny wrote:Thank you Jack.


Same here. Great report, sad as it was to read his sophistry.
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 5:11 pm

http://cindysheehanssoapbox.blogspot.co ... eehan.html

Passing Propaganda

by Cindy Sheehan

"The goal of modern propaganda is no longer to transform opinion but to arouse an active and mythical belief."
Jacques Ellul, philosopher


One day in July of 2006, I was on Hardball and the host was Norah O’Donnell who was filling in for Chris Matthews. I was her first guest that day and when she was introducing the show before the first break, she intro’d me as: THE WOMAN WHO MET WITH COMMUNIST DICTATOR, HUGO CHAVEZ. We then went to break and I told Norah: “You know Chavez is not a communist, he’s a socialist and he has been democratically elected several times, survived a CIA coup attempt and the last election was certified by Jimmy Carter.” She replied: “Yeah, we talked about that earlier, but we decided to call him a ‘communist dictator,’ anyway.”

I was appalled, but not shocked. I was born during the day, but not yesterday and I realized a long time ago that the caca that passes for “news” is just that: caca.

Norah O’Donnell readily and unashamedly admitted to me that she deliberately, intentionally and will full knowledge aforethought spreads propaganda that she knows is not true! She conspired with others on her production team to broadcast lies. How often does this happen? Most of the time? “News” shows are not only lying but are fully aware that they are propagandizing you. This happened on MSNBC, not Fox.

We know that the “news” shows employed Pentagon shills to sell us Iraq and Afghanistan. We also know that the White House Iraq Group that included people who are still commentators on cable “news” developed the product of the invasion like they were selling us some NEW and IMPROVED laundry detergent, douche or toothpaste. Among the members of the White House Iraq Marketing Group was an actual marketing group: The Rendon Group. The WHIG came up with the “smoking gun/mushroom cloud” rhetoric and members of the group should be on the shortlist for war crimes trials.

We know that the CIA has been committing hanky-panky in Iran for over 50 years now and that our government has pumped 400 million dollars into the country to destabilize the ayatollahs and the government and that BushCo were absolutely JONESING for a war with Iran, but it and its policies had been so thoroughly discredited that the invasion of Iran would have been unacceptable to USians. So what better time to foment “revolution” and instability in Iran then when we have a NEW and IMPROVED emperor of the US Imperium? I am not saying that there are not wonderful people in Iran who are actually doing this for good intentions, but what is false and what is real?

When I see the riots on the streets of Tehran (in the mainstream “news” why is it said that those people are “bravely standing up for their rights”, but when people “bravely stand up for their rights” in Oakland, they’re called “thugs”) I am reminded of the staged media event of the pulling down of Saddam’s statue early on in the sanitized and mass-marketed invasion of Iraq.

I have read commentaries on both sides from people that I respect and I still don’t know what to believe or whom to support in this, but I do know that I do not trust the politicians in this country or that country. I am not bold enough to make a definitive statement on the issue and when I was in Princeton, NJ, an Iranian man came up to me after my talk and said that I was smart for taking this position, because his relatives in Iran don’t even know what’s going on.

My response to the events in Iran is to turn off the Norahs of the airwaves and do my own research.

Let’s think for ourselves before we rush off to support or condemn the “Green Revolution.”
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Postby John Schröder » Thu Jun 25, 2009 5:39 pm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ju ... rotest-ban

According to the pro-government newspaper Iran, four players – Ali Karimi, 31, Mehdi Mahdavikia, 32, Hosein Ka'abi, 24 and Vahid Hashemian, 32 – have been "retired" from the sport after their gesture in last Wednesday's match against South Korea in Seoul.

They were among six players who took to the field wearing wristbands in the colour of the defeated opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, which has been adopted by demonstrators who believe the 12 June election was stolen.

Most of the players obeyed instructions to remove the armwear at half-time, but Mahdavikia wore his green captain's armband for the entire match. The four are also said to have been banned from giving media interviews.
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Postby Sweejak » Thu Jun 25, 2009 5:44 pm

A playground for provocateurs?

8 Basijis shot dead during Tehran unrest
Twenty people including, eight Basij members, have been killed during the post-election unrest in Tehran, Iranian officials say.

All the Basij members were killed by gunfire, indicating that there were gunmen fomenting unrest among protesters, the officials said.

The volunteer Basij forces were among the main targets of the rioters during the recent protests in Tehran.

Iranian police have arrested a rioter who attacked an unarmed Basiji member during the post-election protests in Tehran.

The rioter says he attacked the man because he had been provoked by bad news on the death of a student called Mohsen Imani.

Some reports had said five students, including Imani, were killed when police and Basiji forces stormed Tehran University's dormitories last Sunday.

Mohsen Imani, however, is alive and says he was not in the dormitory at the time.

MGH/SME/DA

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98 ... =351020101
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Postby JackRiddler » Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:12 am

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/25 ... Was-Stolen

$10,000 Reward: Show How the Iranian Election Was "Stolen"
by Robert Naiman
Digg this! Share this on Twitter - $10,000 Reward: Show How the Iranian Election Was "Stolen"Tweet this submit to reddit Share This
Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 07:29:43 AM PDT

I will pay $10,000 to the first person or organization that presents a coherent story for how the Iranian election was stolen that is consistent with knowable facts about the Iranian election process as it took place on June 12-13 and the information that has been published since, including the ballot box tallies that have been published on the web by the Iranian government.

In order to collect the reward, you don't have to prove your case beyond a shadow of a doubt. But your numbers have to add up. To collect your reward, it's not sufficient to cite press reports or anecdotal evidence of election irregularities, or to claim as authority Western commentators or NGOs who have not themselves put together a coherent story. To collect your reward, your story has to tell how on June 12, a majority of Iranian voters voted for other candidates besides Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yet this was transformed by the Iranian election authorities into a majority for Ahmadinejad.

Here are the numbers you have to explain. According to the official tally, Ahmadinejad got about 24.5 million votes. Mir Hossein Mousavi got 13.2 million votes. That's a difference of more than 11 million votes.

So, when I say your numbers have to add up, I mean your story of stolen votes has to overcome that 11 million vote gap.

* Robert Naiman's diary :: ::
*

[The number would differ somewhat if you only want to say that Ahmadinejad didn't get a first round majority, as opposed to merely beating Mousavi, but it would not differ by much, since the third and fourth place candidates took such a small share of the vote.]

To illustrate: much has been made of the Guardian Council's "admission" that in about 50 cities or towns, the number of votes exceeded the number of people eligible to vote in that area. Note, first of all, that unlike in the United States, where in general you can only vote where you are registered, in Iran you can vote wherever you happen to be that day. So the fact that more votes were recorded in a jurisdiction than there are eligible voters in that jurisdiction, in a high turnout election, in itself proves nothing. But put that to the side. The Guardian Council noted that the total number of votes in the 50 cities and towns was about 3 million, and that even if you threw away all 3 million votes from all the people voting in the 50 cities and towns, it wouldn't affect the election result. Note that 3 million wasn't the difference between votes and voters, still less an estimate of the impact on the total, it was the total number of votes. The Guardian Council was simply making the commonsense argument that even if you take a number which is clearly much bigger than the likely impact of any discrepancy in the 50 towns, and throw that number away, it still doesn't come close to affecting the overall result.

If you've been getting your "information" from the TV, or some usually liberal commentators who shot from the hip with unsubstantiated "stolen election" claims in the days after the election and now can't back down, you may be surprised by this reward offer.

But remember: "everybody who was anybody" thought that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Why? Because that's what the TV said. There was no evidence, but that didn't matter.

Here we go again. Most people are not getting their information from print media, they're getting it from TV. And of course, even in the print media, you have to search for dissenting views from the TV narrative.

Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty had an op-ed in the Washington Post pointing out that Ahmadinejad's election victory was consistent with their pre-election polling data. (By the way, contrary to the claims of some analysts who cited their own unsubstantiated claim that Ahmadinejad could never have won the majority of Azeris as evidence of fraud, the Terror Free Tomorrow poll found Ahmadinejad had a strong lead among Azeris. And those who say Mousavi automatically had to win his home province should tell Al Gore.) Some folks who are lazy or bad at math have tried to discredit the TFT poll data, because it was taken three weeks before the election, there was a subsequent surge for the opposition and there were a high number of people who didn't state a candidate preference in the poll. But even if you allocate two-thirds of those not stating a preference to the opposition, you still get an election victory for Ahmadinejad in the first round. And some of the same folks who want to dismiss the Terror Free Tomorrow data because it was three weeks old want to cite election results from four years and even eight years earlier to claim the election was stolen. Of course, we don't predict elections in the U.S. like that.

Former NSC staffers Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett have had two pieces in the Politico pointing out how implausible the "stolen election" claim is. Iranian economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani - professor at Virginia Tech and guest scholar at Brookings - noted in the New York Times online evidence that Ahmadinejad's programs to distribute income and wealth more evenly have begun to bear fruit, explaining his support in rural areas and small towns:

"Once these factors are taken into account, it is not so implausible that Mr. Ahmadinejad may have actually won a majority of the votes cast, though not those cast in Tehran. The well-to-do urbanite Iranians and their political leaders would do well to allow room for the possibility that a recount may reduce but not eliminate Mr. Ahmadinejad's lead, and, in that case, respect the voters will and prepare for a comeback in 2013. "

Of course, now that it's becoming increasingly clear that the "stolen election" story was a hoax, people are saying it doesn't matter if the election was stolen. This is predictable - it's hard for people to admit that they were wrong.

But it does matter. It matters a great deal.

The widely-believed story of the "stolen election" is already being used to argue for a toughening of U.S. policy against Iran and the abandonment of President Obama's promised diplomatic engagement. Recall that prior to the Iranian election, the alternatives that had been put before the American people were diplomatic engagement and war - or "crippling economic sanctions" - like cutting off Iran's gas imports - that are tantamount to war and will very likely lead eventually to a shooting war. So, in the U.S. political context - the U.S. is almost certainly not going to just leave Iran alone - if you argue that the U.S. cannot engage diplomatically with Iran, you're effectively arguing for eventual war.

That's why I was shocked that Avaaz, for example, is demanding that governments "withhold recognition" from the Iranian government. Apart from being a fantastically unrealistic demand - China is going to withhold diplomatic recognition from Iran because of the stolen election claims of the Iranian opposition? - Avaaz's current position is totally at odds with its earlier advocacy of diplomatic engagement. You cannot simultaneously campaign for diplomatic isolation of the Iranian government and promote diplomacy with it. You have to choose. And the alternative to diplomacy is war.

Of course people will say it's not about the election now, it's about the violent repression of the protests afterwards.

But whether we believe the election was stolen has a great bearing on our understanding of what happened afterwards. If the election was not stolen, and the real fraud was the opposition's claim that it was, then much of the opposition was organized around a fraudulent claim. It should go without saying that that doesn't morally justify violent repression. In a democracy, people have the right to believe whatever they want and advocate for it, even if - like people who believe Bush blew up the World Trade Center - their beliefs are obviously false. But if the Iranian election was not stolen, it does make the protest and crackdown fundamentally different political events: it fundamentally undermines the claim of the protesters to be speaking for the majority of the Iranian population, who just voted for a different candidate than the one supported by the protesters. And when the powerful media institutions of the West - which are regarded in much of the world, not without significant justification, as creatures of their host governments - promote the false claim that the election was stolen, the claim of the Iranian government of foreign intervention in Iran's internal politics becomes quite plausible to Iranians - the majority - who support the policies of their government more than they support the policies that the U.S. would like to impose on them.

Some will say it doesn't matter, because Iran is not a true democracy, regardless of what happened on June 12. Debate is restricted, and candidates are limited. It's obviously true that democracy in Iran is restricted. But that doesn't justify lying about the election, especially with all the terrible consequences those lies will likely have.

Furthermore, those who want to "support the protesters" by affirming their unsubstantiated claims of a stolen election aren't doing the opposition any favors. If the opposition in Iran wants to win a fair national election in the future, it will likely have to deal with the reasons that it didn't have majority support on June 12. It has to engage the majority of the Iranian population who likely have more illiberal social views, and it has to engage the majority of the Iranian population who want the government to engage in redistributive economic policies, not "Washington Consensus" winner-take-all policies that might please the International Monetary Fund and some better-off Iranians. It has to give up on the fantasy of riding to power on the backs of foreign intervention, and instead dedicate itself to a "long march" through Iranian institutions and Iranian public opinion.

I empathize with the Iranian protesters. I also wanted Mousavi to win. It would have made the job of promoting diplomacy with Iran a lot easier. I strongly sympathize with the protesters' desire for more social freedom, and empathize with their outrage over the crackdown.

I also know what it's like to lose such a national election that seems to validate and empower the most reactionary currents in society. I remember well when Reagan clobbered Mondale. I had campaigned for Mondale - without illusion about Mondale's cold war liberalism - to defeat Reagan. When Reagan won, it meant four more years of Reagan's unionbusting and terrorist war in Central America, among many other brutal and cruel Reagan policies. Reagan's re-election was a terrible event for America and the world.

But when Reagan was re-elected, I did not dissociate from reality into a fantasyland in which the election had been "stolen" and the majority of the American electorate shared my views. Neither should the Iranian opposition, nor its foreign sympathizers, dissociate from reality into a fanstasyland in which the majority of Iranian electorate shares their views. Accepting that Ahmadinejad won doesn't mean you love Ahmadinejad. It means you want to deal with the world as it exists in reality, not the world as it exists in your fantasy.
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Postby JackRiddler » Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:22 am

.

Among the "538" commentators (also cited as "evidence" by Aslan in his response to my question today, whereupon Lehrer went nuts on the plug), the main guy Nate Silver seems to be the one seduced the least by the "fraud and freedom" narrative, though he's subtle about it:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ ... ehran.html

6.23.2009
Good Morning, Tehran
by Nate Silver @ 6:31 PM

Since the Iranian elections were held a week ago Friday, this website has received 2,065 visits from Iran. That's not particularly many and represents just a fraction of a percent of our overall traffic. But considering that we'd had just a couple dozen visitors from Iran in the entire history of this website prior to 6/12, it becomes more impressive.

One thing I noticed, however, is that 67 percent of our Iranian visitors are from Tehran, even though Tehran accounts for only about 10 percent of the country's population. This is not particularly surprising considering that Internet access in Iran is highly inequitable: of the 33 ISP's in Iran as of 2005, 19 were in Tehran Province.

Image

Nevertheless, it does seem to underscore the point that so many other commentators have been making: the protests are being facilitated to a large degree by the Internet. We've heard very little about protests outside of Tehran, even though there are some other fairly large cities -- Tabriz, Zahedan, Ardabil, Yazd -- where Ahmadinejad (ostensibly) received 50 percent or less of the vote. But we're seeing hardly any visitors from those other cities, except for Yazd from which we've gotten quite a few. If our traffic is even a loose proxy for the Internet situation in Iran in general, these people aren't Tweeting, and they certainly aren't reading the New York Times or the BBC. And they also, apparently, aren't protesting in great numbers.


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