Mubarak's Exit to Upend Decades of Predictable U.S. Policy in Arab WorldBy Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, Glen Carey and Massoud A. Derhally - Feb 2, 2011 5:51 AM GMT+0100
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s announcement that he won’t seek reelection sets in motion a perilous period in Egypt and
across the Arab world after decades of predictability under U.S.-allied strongmen.
The dilemma for the U.S. as popular protests sweep the Middle East and North Africa is to
back away from repressive leaders without
encouraging Islamic radicalism, analysts say. The White House will have to maneuver deftly, they add, to help allies transition to new
leadership that won’t threaten key U.S. interests in the region: security for Israel and the world’s energy supply.
In Egypt, the U.S. will want “to ensure that a successor government is neither virulently anti-American nor openly hostile to Israel. This
requires a delicate touch,” said Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge,
Massachusetts.
“We should be quietly advising other leaders in the region to take steps to alleviate discontent” and “avoid the same
fate that Mubarak is now experiencing.”So far, the Obama administration “is 10 steps behind not just Egypt’s events, but the radically changing dynamics of the entire region --
the fact that the region’s youth population is defining its future in defiant and unprecedented and unexpected ways,” said Dina Guirguis,
an Egyptian-American human rights activist and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Months of Uncertainty
Even if protesters accept Mubarak’s offer to leave after elections, the coming months will bring great uncertainty in Egypt, said Marina
Ottaway, director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Still unclear is whether the Muslim Brotherhood will be influential players in the transition and how a change in leadership will affect
Egypt’s relations with Israel, she said.
Egypt’s culture minister, Gaber Asfour, said yesterday that the “revolution” by the country’s youth was spontaneous and served as a
wake-up call for the government.
“This is a very significant sign that we are witnessing the end of the old Middle East,” Khalil al-Anani, a Middle East analyst at the
University of Birmingham in England, said by telephone. “Now, the people have the upper hand over regimes.”Young people demonstrating in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen and Algeria over the last month began by demanding more jobs and
lower prices. As Arab presidents and kings increase salaries and welfare payments in an effort to address discontent fueling the unrest,
disgruntled citizens are demanding revolution rather than piecemeal economic and political changes.
‘Demand for Political Participation’
“We are beyond the bread riots,” said Malika Zeghal, the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal professor of contemporary Islamic thought and life at
Harvard University. These uprisings are “really a demand for political participation.”
The sheer volume of protesters in Egypt and the speed with which demonstrations have mounted across the region pose a unique test for
the organizers -- and also for the Obama administration, which is formulating new policy as the ground in the Mideast shifts beneath its
feet, analysts said.
“The pace of change will not be the same everywhere, but there will be change across the board,” said Khalid al-Dakhil, Saudi columnist at
the London-based pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat. “People want genuine, real reforms, not cosmetic changes. These regimes have proven
that they are incapable of reform, so they have to go.”‘Fate of Mubarak’
“Arab Gulf monarchies which have wealth and no strong opposition may have the leisure of changing gradually, without undermining their
regimes, but they have to be serious about it or they will eventually meet the fate of Mubarak,” added al- Dakhil, a former political science
professor at King Saud University in Riyadh.
The immediate problem in Egypt is that protesters have no one who can deliver what they want -- jobs, lower prices and a better life, said
Edward S. Walker, a former U.S. ambassador to both Israel and Egypt.
“It’s very difficult to see how democracy will work to answer the questions the demonstrators have,” Walker said. “It doesn’t create jobs, it
doesn’t lower the price of food” or eliminate the gap between rich and poor.In Jordan, the regime is far less threatened than in Egypt, because King Abdullah is a popular leader who holds the allegiance of many tribes
and can trace his lineage back to the prophet Mohammed, Walker said.
Ahead of the Situation
Governments throughout the region are watching what is happening in Egypt and Tunisia and drawing their own conclusions, said an Obama
administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said the U.S. is pleased that Jordan’s king has decided to get ahead of
the situation by taking steps today.
It’s risky, the official warned, to draw sweeping lessons from the events so far; how the protests unfold will be determined by unique dynamics
within each country.
“Most regimes are not addressing the underlying tough issues and are doing superficial things -- and very poorly in most cases,” said Rami Khouri,
director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut. “There is absolutely no doubt that
every single Arab country, without exception, is watching the events, concerned about the implications for their own countries.”
In Egypt, the most populous Arab nation, the economic growth rate has dropped below the 7 percent the government estimates is necessary to create
enough jobs for a growing working-age population. The official inflation rate last dipped below 10 percent in August 2009.
Strain in Syria
In Syria, where street protests and social networking websites are banned, economic progress has been slow. Syria ranks 140 out of 179 countries in
2011 in terms of economic freedom, according to the Heritage Foundation, a public policy center in Washington.
President Bashar al-Assad, 45, doubled the heating allowance for state workers, the official Syrian Arab News Agency reported Jan. 16. The government
spent more than 140 billion Syrian pounds ($3 billion) to subsidize prices for home heating oil and other petroleum products last year, 10 times more than
what was spent in 2009, Ath Thawra newspaper reported Jan. 3.
The government also
plans to provide between 500 pounds and 3,500 pounds a month to low-income families, Al-Watan newspaper reported two days later.
‘Hard Truth’
“He has promised political reforms in the past,” Josh Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, said of Assad. “The
hard truth is that Syria has a rapidly growing population, a bad education system, too little water -- and world food prices are going up rapidly.”
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said he would raise the salaries of the armed forces and security forces by 5,000 Yemeni rials ($23) a month, the
state-owned Saba news agency reported Jan. 22. That came after more than a week of protests against the 68-year-old leader.
In Jordan, the government announced an increase in public salaries and subsidies to counter protests over falling living standards. The package includes a
20-dinar ($28) monthly increase for state employees and pensioners, which will cost the treasury 160 million dinars a year, Petra news agency reported Jan.
21, citing then-Prime Minister Samir Rifai.
An additional 140 million dinars will be spent on subsidies for natural gas and livestock feed, Petra said. Rifai, 44, was dismissed yesterday after a little over
a year in power.
‘New Arab World’
King Abdullah, 49, told new premier Marouf Bakhit that he should put the country on the path “to strengthen democracy,” and provide Jordanians with the
“dignified life they deserve,” the Royal Court said in an e-mailed statement.While his 86-year-old counterpart in Saudi Arabia, also King Abdullah, backed the Egyptian government and condemned the protesters, he also has been
trying to address imbalances in the largest Arab economy, albeit the world’s largest oil exporter. The government announced in August a $385 billion,
five-year spending plan as the kingdom tries to reduce a jobless rate of as high as 43 percent for Saudis between the ages of 20 and 24.
“We are today in a new Arab world,” said Mohammed al- Qahtan, head of the political department of Islamic Reform Party in Yemen. “The young Arabs of
today are the generation of the Internet and satellite television and are seeing what is happening around the world.”
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"Teach them to think. Work against the government." – Wittgenstein.