Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[MacCruiskeen]

Extraordinary short Twitter interviiew between Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator, and Graham Medley, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling and Chairman of SPI-M, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (a sub-group of SAGE, the UK govt's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies).

If you must follow TheScience™, at least remember that TheScience™ has paymasters, and in this case it is directly following government instructions. ("Right, we need a big scary turkey for Christmas, with plenty of SAGE and onion stuffing and a side order of SPIM. Call the boffins and place an order.")

[...]

NELSON: Thanks, this helps me understand. So you exclusively model bad outcomes that require restrictions and omit just-as-likely outcomes that would not require restrictions?

MEDLEY: We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy.
·
NELSON: Okay, so you were asked to model bad Omicron outcomes and make no comment as to the probability?

[...]

https://twitter.com/GrahamMedley/status ... 0213394434

[Joe Hillshoist]

Extraordinary short Twitter interviiew between Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator, and Graham Medley, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling and Chairman of SPI-M, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (a sub-group of SAGE, the UK govt's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies).

If you must follow TheScience™, at least remember that TheScience™ has paymasters, and in this case it is directly following government instructions. ("Right, we need a big scary turkey for Christmas, with plenty of SAGE and onion stuffing and a side order of SPIM. Call the boffins and place an order.")

[...]

NELSON: Thanks, this helps me understand. So you exclusively model bad outcomes that require restrictions and omit just-as-likely outcomes that would not require restrictions?

MEDLEY: We generally model what we are asked to model. There is a dialogue in which policy teams discuss with the modellers what they need to inform their policy.
·
NELSON: Okay, so you were asked to model bad Omicron outcomes and make no comment as to the probability?

[...]

https://twitter.com/GrahamMedley/status ... 0213394434

Did you miss the bit in that exchange where he said wtte of:

"You know what's going to happen if it doesn't make people sick already - nothing. WE don't need to model that."

???

Here's more of what he said on his own twitter in response to that last comment by the Tory Editor.

Graham Medley
@GrahamMedley
·
Dec 19
GM - Why scientists should never engage in public understanding of science on this platform…
Quote Tweet
Bronan
@MightyBronan
· Dec 19
Replying to @alanvibe @FraserNelson and 4 others
‘We model what we are asked to’ - the cats well and truly out of the bag here isn’t it? Needs more coverage!

GM - I am going to give up on this, but just to finish by saying that this absolutely the wrong take. We model the scenarios that are most informative to help decisions be made
Quote Tweet
CORE447
@CORE447
· Dec 19
I know I quoted this a second ago but it is truly staggering!

The policy is lockdown. The model is then prepared to justify it. twitter.com/GrahamMedley/s…

GM - Absolutely not true. We model the scenarios that are most informative to enable Government decisions (and doing nothing is an option in that decision)
Quote Tweet
Bollywagger Twatfarthing
@bollywagger
· Dec 19
Replying to @LakeSong7 @FraserNelson and 4 others
The government tells them to model the worst case scenario, so they do it, unquestioningly. Then, the government deploys it's "let's do something so the public vote for us next GE" algorithm.

I've added GM next to his comments.

You seem to be implying that the people doing the modelling are in on something when all they are doing is a job.

They are modelling the worst case scenario.

Its a model. It isn't the truth. Its one scenario out of many and depending on the variables involved it could be completely different depending on small changes to the initial inputs. Furthermore its a worst case type scenario. (Obviously there are much worse cases, but they'd involve the actual collapse of society. For example if COVID was as dangerous as MERS or even SARS1 and spread with the speed this variant seems to spread with. In which case the government doesn't need to model for them cos it won't be the government anymore.)

The best case scenario is no one gets sick enough to go to hospital and covid is no worse than the cold from here on. You don't need that situation modeled to make decisions based on that outcome. There are no special measures needed if its a best case scenario.


I put a bit in italics in those quotes:

The policy is lockdown. The model is then prepared to justify it.

There is alot of truth to this. Its how government and industry work alot of the time. There are alot of private modelling outfits that tailor modelling to certain outcomes, especially in regard to environmental outcomes from potentially sus developments, mining projects, roads, airports, dams etc etc

But at the same time its also true that the situation right now is this: The British government believes that there will be a massive of Covid omicron infections in a very short period of time. Its natural they will ask for a data on worse case scenarios asap so they can prepare for them and work backward thru less fucked up scenarios if necessary.

Its their duty as the government to prepare for this.

They may use this as cover for naked grabs at power but given how silent you lot are on the "Fuck you! We're the Coppers" Bill that psycho Patel is scamming into law right now you Pommy Scotch RI lot obviously don't actually care about governments behaving like authoritarian scum. You're certainly not fair dinkum about objecting to the implementation of the police state when a bill that targets environmental protesting gets rewritten after passing thru the upper house of the UK parliament, immediately following the "failure" (lol he's achieved exactly what he wanted) of Johnson to achieve anything useful at Cop 26 and youse don't even notice.

That's why its hard to take you or Harvs seriously with all this "take our freedoms" bullshit. They've already done that (again) and you didn't bat an eyelid (again).

Youse just like bitching and moaning about stuff you can't or more likely don't have to take action on.

Of course the government is going to ask for worst case scenario modelling. Its their job to prepare for worst cases. If everything is good they don't have to do anything. Best case scenarios are a doddle.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Cue Mac:

Hur Hur Human Centipede

Hur hur something something conglomeration blarrgh

[alwyn]

Anyone have a link to a copy of zhous gain of function research paper where they mated corona virus with hiv? I posted it somewhere april 2020 but it seems to have disappeared off of the internets. Thx

[alwyn]

Sorry. Zhong li from the wuhan lab. So much smoking gun has been pruned from the internets

[Joe Hillshoist]

Sorry. Zhong li from the wuhan lab. So much smoking gun has been pruned from the internets

Are you thinking of the one where they stuck a coronavirus spike protein that binds to ACE2 on sars1 and then used it to infect mice?

It was done at UNC Chapel Hill but Zheng/Zhong Li Shi and the others from the Wuhan lab were involved?

This is that one:

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/a ... MC4797993/



I don't recall reading anything related to the combination of SARS and HIV, but I've read so much of this stuff in the last 2 years. Anyway i have a feeling it was you put me onto that paper back then.

[drstrangelove]

Omicron: 3 vaccine doses are not enough to stop the new COVID variant, warns BioNTech CEO

“There will be a loss of effectiveness against Omicron over time, it's very likely, but it's still to be measured how quickly. I will not base predictions on preliminary laboratory data but on real-life data, which is much more appropriate,” the German immunologist said.

Sahin said testing for COVID-19 is important, especially for the elderly and during winter, as are other protective measures such as mask-wearing, adding, “otherwise we will not be able to control the rapid expansion of this new variant.”

The German company is already designing a coronavirus vaccine adapted to the new variant, using Omicron’s spike protein and its 32 mutations as an antigen. Sahin announced this should be ready by March.

- https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/2 ... ontech-ceo

Science!

[Joe Hillshoist]

Everyone will have it by March. They'll be too late.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Anyway this is a virus that appears to have been made in a lab and seems to target the old, sick, the fat and the lazy.

Mostly.

All the unproductive eaters.

So much bullshit in this thread about all sorts of crap and relatively little about ... well Eco-Health Alliance funding for example.

[Harvey]

Everyone will have it by March. They'll be too late.

But as you seem admit, this will not change lockdown, restriction and vaccination mandate policies - because those things are the goal and have nothing to do with public health strategy.

The policy is lockdown. The model is then prepared to justify it.

There is alot of truth to this. Its how government and industry work alot of the time.

That would seem to be the point at issue. That it's normal practice is no recommendation of bad science.

8 December 2021

An estimated 95.3% of the adult population in England, 93.9% in Wales, 91.6% in Northern Ireland and 95.0% in Scotland tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in the week beginning 15 November 2021.

The presence of antibodies suggests a person previously had COVID-19 or has been vaccinated.   

The percentage of people testing positive for antibodies has increased among those aged 65 years and over since early October 2021, as a result of the vaccination booster programme.

The survey does not include people in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... er2021/pdf

^ The UK government admits its testing has revealed that almost 100% of the UK population have had one version or another of the corona viruses in question, we're all immune. But vaccination mandates continue and disastrous injection of children with dangerous and faulty therapeutics continues to be encouraged.

The reputation of science will not survive the next ten years.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Everyone will have it by March. They'll be too late.

But as you seem admit, this will not change lockdown, restriction and vaccination mandate policies - because those things are the goal and have nothing to do with public health strategy.

The policy is lockdown. The model is then prepared to justify it.

There is alot of truth to this. Its how government and industry work alot of the time.

That would seem to be the point at issue. That it's normal practice is no recommendation of bad science.

I wasn't very clear obviously. I'm not admitting the policy is lockdown and the model was made to justify it. I accept that may be possible obviously but I think its less likely given the Tories and Johnson in particular seem heavily influenced by the Barclay (?) brothers who that Fraser Nelson fella works for. They all love small business and a thriving economy and they promote an economic model that ultimately extracts rent from it.

However commissioning modeling to reinforce policy or promote policy and provide a desired outcome is standard practice so i do understand why people make that assumption. That is what there is alot of truth to imo. Not that lockdowns and restrictions are the goal.

And that doesn't make the modeling bad science. It makes the policy an abuse of science or at the least a manipulation of it. Bad science is more along the lines of claiming mRNA vaccines have no side effects or covering up information from testing that shows those side effects. The modeling is accurate modeling, as far any modeling can be accurate. Given its a model not the actual situation (which hasn't happened yet.)

Frankly if Omicron doesn't cause much illness and covid is over by March yet the government still wants lockdowns and gets away with them that is on you lot for letting your government get away with that sort of policy when its no longer necessary.

8 December 2021

An estimated 95.3% of the adult population in England, 93.9% in Wales, 91.6% in Northern Ireland and 95.0% in Scotland tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies in the week beginning 15 November 2021.

The presence of antibodies suggests a person previously had COVID-19 or has been vaccinated.   

The percentage of people testing positive for antibodies has increased among those aged 65 years and over since early October 2021, as a result of the vaccination booster programme.

The survey does not include people in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... er2021/pdf

^ The UK government admits its testing has revealed that almost 100% of the UK population have had one version or another of the corona viruses in question, we're all immune. But vaccination mandates continue and disastrous injection of children with dangerous and faulty therapeutics continues to be encouraged.[/quote]

You aren't necessarily immune but you probably are. Look this is being treated as an emergency situation by all our governments, so there will be panic and overreaction, especially by people who are responsible for managing the situation. But if this new variant has low illness rates and races thru the population then the emergency will be over soon and that's when you need to be ready to be vocal and pushy about winding back all of the emergency measures.

If its obviously over you are more likely to get the support of people who would otherwise support lockdowns etc because a big part of their support comes from them trusting the authorities to manage emergencies.

The reputation of science will not survive the next ten years.

Says the person communicating on a computer and over a network both built by science.

This what

they

want. To disempower the general population and one of the ways they do it is by undermining the people's trust in science. After all evolution is wrong, creationism is right and you should be burning witches for using herbs (that they understand thru science) instead of big pharma.

[Harvey]

You appear to be confusing science and technology somewhat in your response. And as I've noted, you often seem content to let bad science pass because it's "standard practice" - business as usual.

This what they want. To disempower the general population... by undermining the people's trust in science.

You're not doing such a bad job yourself.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Interesting bit of info here; interpret as you deem fit, though it suggests a development that a few of us here have been foreshadowing (via messaging by certain scientists/doctors raising alarms):

A posting Re: an “outbreak” of TB at Goldman Sachs.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=244540

The story is not necessarily covid/vax related, but potentially noteworthy in the current context.

(side-note: I know several people employed at Goldman Sachs; vaccination is required to remain employed; deadline for vaccination was late August, or thereabouts, if I recall what was relayed to me correctly)

In particular, one of the comments posted below the piece, by a "Blackcrow", on pg 2 of the comments section. He/She appears to be a physician.

Reproduced below:

Blackcrow:

You don't have "outbreaks" of TB or other mycobacterial diseases.

The timing of these cases fits the scenario of an evolving immune dysfunction - most of these folks have been immunized for at least 6 months. That these people are sick in this time frame may indicate an accelerated immune dysfunction post jab.

These TB bugs grow and spread very slowly. Infected people have a long period of asymptomatic spread (months) before they start coughing or showing other symptoms. People with intact immune symptoms require long exposure + immune deficiency (more below) + environnental factors like malnutrition to be susceptible to infection.

TB is an AIDs defining illness as low CD4 counts contribute to susceptibility.

The immune response to TB is extremely complex. It involves alveolar macrophages, CD4/CD8 cells, TLR Receptors, IFN (interferon) working in a delicate balance of positive and negative feedback loops of inflammatory versus healing cells and cytokines.

In our immune systems, there is an innate side, which is always working in the background, and the adaptive side, which revves up when stimulated. This is what vander Bossche has been talking about for months now. The interaction between this magnificant system and infectious organisms (and cancer) is bewilderlingly complex. I assure you The Malignant Garden Gnome Fauci has no clue.

Suffice it to say, if you knock out any part of this network you will be susceptible to TB bugs, or other organisms, that you would otherwise fend off.

There is lots of papers out there how the mRNA vaccines screw with the TLR teceptors, IFN signalling and CD8 cell function.

THAT IS OVER AND ABOVE THE PROBLEM OF ADE, OAS AND CLOTTING!!!

There has been a surge in shingles, severe bacterial pneumonias, RSV (respiratory synctial virus), especially in young jabbed since the mass jabbing began.

If these TB cases are, in fact, in the jabbed, this may indicate a potential catestrophe among the jabbed. These people may have been rendered functional AIDS patients by the destruction of their innate and adaptive immune systems. More jabbing = more damage.

We can only hope that the manufacturing process is so uneven that most jabbed did not receive a high enough mRNA load that their immune systems are not irrevocably damaged.

It just gets worse and worse and hat tip [profile] susanlauren - this will not end well.

Oh, and a cheery note: I have a patient who picks up the deceased for a funeral home. He and his partner are on double shifts picking up folks who died "unexpectedly" in their homes.

[stickdog99]

True Leadership, True Fellowship, and Peace and Goodwill to All

[MacCruiskeen]

^^ #ClapForCarers

Are we starting to see a pattern here?

COVID - Delta - Omicron

AL QAEDA - ISIS - TheUnvaccinated™

versus

BLACKWATER - Xe - Academi

The War on Terra is finally getting real. Can we call it the War on Earthlings now?

Stay tuned for further instructions on what to think and who to hate.