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Grizzly » Wed Mar 02, 2016 12:42 pm wrote:Now, what if Trump invites Jesse Ventura as a running mate? That would be a plot twist...lol
wombat said:
Let's be real: Bernie Sanders would be a more moderate choice for Trump.
The rise of American authoritarianism
A niche group of political scientists may have uncovered what's driving Donald Trump's ascent. What they found has implications that go well beyond 2016.
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"We may now have a de facto three-party system: the Democrats, the GOP establishment, and the GOP authoritarians"
But while the party may try to match Trump's authoritarian rhetoric, and its candidates may grudgingly embrace some of his harsher policies toward immigrants or Muslims, in the end a mainstream political party cannot fully commit to extreme authoritarian action the way Trump can.
That will be a problem for the party. Just look at where the Tea Party has left the Republican establishment. The Tea Party delivered the House to the GOP in 2010, but ultimately left the party in an unresolved civil war. Tea Party candidates have challenged moderates and centrists, leaving the GOP caucus divided and chaotic.
Now a similar divide is playing out at the presidential level, with results that are even more destructive for the Republican Party. Authoritarians may be a slight majority within the GOP, and thus able to force their will within the party, but they are too few and their views too unpopular to win a national election on their own.
And so the rise of authoritarianism as a force within American politics means we may now have a de facto three-party system: the Democrats, the GOP establishment, and the GOP authoritarians.
And although the latter two groups are presently forced into an awkward coalition, the GOP establishment has demonstrated a complete inability to regain control over the renegade authoritarians, and the authoritarians are actively opposed to the establishment's centrist goals and uninterested in its economic platform.
Over time, this will have significant political consequences for the Republican Party. It will become more difficult for Republican candidates to win the presidency because the candidates who can win the nomination by appealing to authoritarian primary voters will struggle to court mainstream voters in the general election. They will have less trouble with local and congressional elections, but that might just mean more legislative gridlock as the GOP caucus struggles to balance the demands of authoritarian and mainstream legislators. The authoritarian base will drag the party further to the right on social issues, and will simultaneously erode support for traditionally conservative economic policies.
And in the meantime, the forces activating American authoritarians seem likely to only grow stronger. Norms around gender, sexuality, and race will continue evolving. Movements like Black Lives Matter will continue chipping away at the country's legacy of institutionalized discrimination, pursuing the kind of social change and reordering of society that authoritarians find so threatening.
The chaos in the Middle East, which allows groups like ISIS to flourish and sends millions of refugees spilling into other countries, shows no sign of improving. Longer term, if current demographic trends continue, white Americans will cease to be a majority over the coming decades.
In the long run, this could mean a GOP that is even more hard-line on immigration and on policing, that is more outspoken about fearing Muslims and other minority groups, but also takes a softer line on traditional party economic issues like tax cuts. It will be a GOP that continues to perform well in congressional and local elections, but whose divisions leave the party caucus divided to the point of barely functioning, and perhaps eventually unable to win the White House.
For decades, the Republican Party has been winning over authoritarians by implicitly promising to stand firm against the tide of social change, and to be the party of force and power rather than the party of negotiation and compromise. But now it may be discovering that its strategy has worked too well — and threatens to tear the party apart.
tapitsbo said:
Trump is not only authoritarian, I've yet to be convinced he isn't just a loud, noisy mask for the authoritarian GOP establishment which is itself aaaalmost the same thing as a certain wing of the democrats. If radical social change from authoritarians farther to the left involves a push for things like de facto segregation, we can stop being surprised by counter-trends that appear awkward to polite society.
tapitsbo » Wed Mar 02, 2016 3:45 pm wrote:Trump is not only authoritarian, I've yet to be convinced he isn't just a loud, noisy mask for the authoritarian GOP establishment which is itself aaaalmost the same thing as a certain wing of the democrats. If radical social change from authoritarians farther to the left involves a push for things like de facto segregation, we can stop being surprised by counter-trends that appear awkward to polite society.
tapitsbo said:
Part of the appeal of stuff like the original Rigorous Intuition blog was its long, hard look at what exactly people were being assimilated to...
PufPuf93 said:
Looks to me that Trump has more than a fair chance of actually being elected POTUS.
backtoiam » Wed Mar 02, 2016 4:52 pm wrote:PufPuf93 said:
Looks to me that Trump has more than a fair chance of actually being elected POTUS.
For some reason I still sort of doubt it. But, if I had a nickel for every time I have been wrong I could retire.![]()
But, If this does happen, on some level, I think it will sigil the next phase of the operation, whatever the hell that is...or another JFK.
I see the JFK martyr at the very bottom of the pile of possibility at this point. Why would a man like Trump want to JFK out of here? I wouldn't if I was him.
justdrew » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:04 pm wrote:I suspect the script is that the resounding electoral defeat of trump will signal a significant shift in US political demography, finally cleaving off the dead-enders and letting an Actually Better America emerge as the clear winning consensus. It'll be the end of the social acceptability of a major part of the republican conventional wisdom. A wholesale close-out fire sale on their standard red-meat issues. Maybe then we can get back to dealing with reality instead of republican fantasy projection we've lived in for a generation or more. It will seem to most like a revolution of sorts. A potentially bloodless social revolution where everyone drops the bullshit... and most... come to their senses at last.
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