Nuclear Meltdown Watch

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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby jingofever » Mon Mar 28, 2011 3:26 pm

Fission Products in Seattle Reveal Clues about Japan Nuclear Disaster:

When the Fukushima nuclear disaster began to unfold after the 11 March earthquake and tsunami, it quickly became clear that anything downwind was in for a sprinkling of radioactivity. So Jonathan Diaz Leon and pals at the University of Washington in Seattle were ready.

These guys began removing air filters from the intake to the ventilation system of the Physics and Astronomy building at the University of Washington and then measuring the levels of radiation they were emitting. Initially, the filters contained nothing out of the ordinary. Then, sometime between 12pm on 17 March and 2pm on 18 March, the radiation levels began to rise.

By measuring the energy of the gamma rays from the filters, these guys have identified exactly which fission products have made their way across the Pacific. And this in turn allows them to make a number of interesting inferences about what has gone wrong at Fukushima. Today, they post the results of the first five days of monitoring on the arXiv.

What they found was small amounts of iodine-131, iodine-132, tellurium-132, iodine-133, cesium-134 and cesium 137.

First things first: the levels of all of these substances were all well below the limits set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The levels of iodine-131, for example, were at least 100 times lower than the EPA's limit. "We note that the observed radioactivity levels are well below alarming limits at our location," say Diaz Leon and buddies.

Having got that out of the way, they draw a number of interesting conclusions from the data.

The first comes from the amount of iodine-131 and tellurium-132 which are both short-lived with half lives of 8 and 3 days respectively. That indicates that they must have come from fuel rods that were recently active rather than from spent fuel.

Second, they could find almost no iodine-133. This has a half life of just 20 hours. Since there is about twice as much iodine-133 as iodine-131 in a steadily burning reactor, Diaz Leon and co estimate that about 8 days must have passed since the fuel had stopped burning regularly. That roughly matches the time between the accident and the date this stuff reached Seattle, which was 7 days.

Finally, there are a huge number of possible breakdown products from nuclear fission in a reactor and yet the Seattle team found evidence of only three fission product elements--iodine, cesium and tellurium. "This points to a specifific process of release into the atmosphere," they say.

Cesium Iodide is highly soluble in water. So these guys speculate that what they're seeing is the result of contaminated steam being released into the atmosphere. "Chernobyl debris, conversely, showed a much broader spectrum of elements, reflecting the direct dispersal of active fuel elements," they say.

That's reassuring, as far as it goes. But things could still change. Their report covers only the first five days of monitoring after the first detection of fission products. They're continuing to study their air filters and have promised to release the data as they get it. We'll be watching.
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby WakeUpAndLive » Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:40 pm

Jeff wrote:
WakeUpAndLive wrote:Isn't plutonium relatively heavy, thus making it difficult to travel large distances through air/moisture?


Yes. I don't think the greater danger is efficient airborne dispersal. But given plutonium's toxicity and long half life, the Fukushima Forbidden Zone is going to be a permanent feature of Japan, and much larger - or it should be - than the current evacuation area.


Thanks for the clarifications eyeno and jeff. Living just north of 30° I wonder how it will affect myself. I know the stuff is dangerous, is there any real protection against it besides good health/diet?


It is so unfortunate that we have chosen the route of nuclear power, I really have no words for how I am clinging onto the notion that our planet might yet be saved for future generations, especially if this trend of nuclear power continues. My stomach has been in knots every time I think of this (and I hope not because of radiation....maybe that "feeling" which was discuss in another thread last week).
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby eyeno » Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:56 pm

In The Middle Of Hell – Explore Japan Tsunami Devastation in 3D Panorama First Person View


http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/0 ... ama-11900/
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby JackRiddler » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:00 pm

WakeUpAndLive wrote:Thanks for the clarifications eyeno and jeff. Living just north of 30° I wonder how it will affect myself. I know the stuff is dangerous, is there any real protection against it besides good health/diet?


The only protection against the ingestion of a plutonium particle, which would be fatal at extremely tiny doses, is luck. Odds are excellent this isn't something you need worry about at your distance from Japan (I'm presuming North America). At least, not from Fukushima. But I guess good health/diet are always good. Regardless.

This situation is so fucked!!!

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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby WakeUpAndLive » Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:06 pm

JackRiddler wrote:The only protection against the ingestion of a plutonium particle, which would be fatal at extremely tiny doses, is luck. Odds are excellent this isn't something you need worry about at your distance from Japan (I'm presuming North America). At least, not from Fukushima. But I guess good health/diet are always good. Regardless.

This situation is so fucked!!!

.


I took eyeno's quote out of context, I thought it was discussing the nuclear meltdown, when in fact it is discussing a different event. Either way, here is what I found on his quote (not sure if its from the same article, but his quote is in there):
http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/plutonium_launch.htm

The situation is definitely fucked. I live in between San Onofre and Diablo, which are my main concerns at this point. The southern hemisphere is looking more and more hospitable when looking at nuclear reactor placement.
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby anothershamus » Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:48 pm

WakeUpAndLive

I took eyeno's quote out of context, I thought it was discussing the nuclear meltdown, when in fact it is discussing a different event. Either way, here is what I found on his quote (not sure if its from the same article, but his quote is in there):
http://www.cyberspaceorbit.com/plutonium_launch.htm

The situation is definitely fucked. I live in between San Onofre and Diablo, which are my main concerns at this point. The southern hemisphere is looking more and more hospitable when looking at nuclear reactor placement.


I love cyberspaceorbit.com too bad about Kent Steadman (a long time gone).
You better watch out WUAL, there might be a shaker down your way shortly! Have a go bag and a route planned to get out of the area if things go wrong!
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)'(
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby 23 » Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:10 pm

*sighs* Can't vouch for this video's authenticity, but it sure did a number on me.

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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby ninakat » Tue Mar 29, 2011 1:33 am

Mike Ruppert with guest Chris Martenson. Highly recommended, and quite sobering. Martenson is incredibly well informed and articulate. They discuss not only the nuclear problem, but economics and energy as related to what's happening to the world's 3rd largest economy.

The Lifeboat Hour - 03/27/11
http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/ ... 32711.html
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby ninakat » Tue Mar 29, 2011 1:49 am

23 wrote:*sighs* Can't vouch for this video's authenticity, but it sure did a number on me.



Shook me up too... and after listening to Martenson, it's pretty hard not to be freaked out about the scale of the human dimensions of this tragedy.
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby Jeff » Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:05 am

Radiation detected in B.C. seaweed and rainwater not dangerous: researchers
Tracy Sherlock, Postmedia News: Monday, March 28, 2011

VANCOUVER — Radiation from the Japanese nuclear reactor damaged in the March 11 earthquake and tsunami has been detected in B.C. seaweed and rainwater samples, researchers say.

Tests found iodine-131 in samples taken in the Lower Mainland on March 19, 20 and 25, Simon Fraser University said in a news release.

SFU nuclear scientist Kris Starosta is confident the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is responsible for the recent discovery, but he said there is no immediate danger to the public.

"As of now, the levels we're seeing are not harmful to humans. We're basing this on Japanese studies following the Chernobyl incident in 1986 where levels of iodine-131 were four times higher than what we've detected in our rainwater so far," Starosta said. "Studies of nuclear incidents and exposures are used to define radiation levels at which the increase in cancer risk is statistically significant. When compared to the information we have today, we have not reached levels of elevated risk."

...


http://www.globaltvbc.com/world/Radiati ... story.html
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby Peachtree Pam » Tue Mar 29, 2011 6:09 am

29 March 2011 Last updated at 06:20 GMT

Japan nuclear: PM Naoto Kan signals 'maximum alert'


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12889541

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said his government is in a state of maximum alert over the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.

Plutonium has been detected in soil at the facility and highly radioactive water has leaked from a reactor building.

Officials say the priority remains injecting water to cool the fuel rods.

Mr Kan told parliament the situation at the quake-hit plant "continues to be unpredictable".

The government "will tackle the problem while in a state of maximum alert", he said, adding that he was seeking advice on whether to extend the evacuation zone around the plant.

Meanwhile National Strategy Minister Koichiro Gemba said the government could consider temporarily nationalising Tepco, the company running the plant.

On Monday shares in the company dropped to their lowest level in three decades.

FUKUSHIMA UPDATE (29 MAR)

* Reactor 1: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas explosion. Highly radioactive water detected in reactor
* Reactor 2: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage suspected. Highly radioactive water detected in reactor and adjoining tunnel
* Reactor 3: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage possible. Spent fuel pond partly refilled with water after running low. Highly radioactive water detected in reactor
* Reactor 4: Reactor shut down prior to quake. Fires and explosion in spent fuel pond; water level partly restored
* Reactors 5 & 6: Reactors shut down. Temperature of spent fuel pools now lowered after rising high
* Plutonium: Found at five locations in soil - levels said to represent no danger to human health

'Utmost efforts'

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano, in another press briefing, described the situation at Fukushima as "very grave".

Workers are battling to restore power and restart the cooling systems at the stricken nuclear plant, which was hit by a powerful quake and subsequent tsunami over two weeks ago.

The twin disasters are now known to have killed 10,901 people, with more than 17,000 people still missing across a swathe of northern Japan.

"We are doing our utmost efforts to contain the damage," Mr Edano said.

"We need to avoid the fuel rods from heating up and drying up. Continuing the cooling is unavoidable... We need to prioritise injecting water."

But he said work to safely remove contaminated water was also a priority.

On Monday highly radioactive water was found for the first time outside one of the reactor buildings at Fukushima plant.

The leak in a tunnel linked to the No 2 reactor has raised fears of radioactive liquid seeping into the environment.

Plutonium - used in the fuel mix for one of the six reactors - has also been found in soil at the plant, but not at levels that threaten human health, officials say.

Correspondents say the government has been accused of indecision and delay in tackling the crisis.

Tepco, meanwhile, was criticised by the government after issuing incorrect radiation readings.

On Sunday it said radiation levels at reactor No 2 were 10 million times higher than normal, before correcting that figure to 100,000 - something the government called "absolutely unacceptable".

It has also been accused of a lack of transparency and failing to provide information more promptly.

Regional fallout

Officials in China, South Korea and the United States say they have recorded traces of radioactive material in the air.

The US Environmental Protection Agency said it had detected traces of radiation in rain water in the north-east of the country.

It said these were consistent with the Fukushima nuclear accident and also said they did not constitute a health hazard.

* Q&A: Health effects of radiation

China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has said that "extremely low-level" doses of iodine-131, a radioactive material, have been found in coastal areas including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong and Guangxi.

It had already reported traces of the radioactive material in the air above the northeastern province of Heilongjiang.

However, the doses were so small as to not pose a threat to public health and no measures against it were necessary, the agency statement said.

Water and food is being tested for radiation; bans on some imported Japanese foodstuffs remain in place.

In Vietnam, the Thanh Nien newspaper has reported that Vietnamese scientists have found small amounts of radiation in the air.

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety said it had detected traces of iodine-131 in Seoul and seven other places across South Korea.

However, an agriculture ministry official told AFP that "no trace of radiation has been found so far either in our own fish or those imported from Japan".
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby eyeno » Tue Mar 29, 2011 8:08 am

EPA: Radioactive isotope levels are increasing in US — “These types of findings are to be expected in the coming days”
March 28th, 2011 at 04:18 PM

EPA Monitoring Continues to Confirm That No Radiation Levels of Concern Have Reached the United States, EPA, March 28, 2011:

During detailed filter analyses from 12 RadNet air monitor locations across the nation, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified trace amounts of radioactive isotopes consistent with the Japanese nuclear incident. Some of the filter results show levels slightly higher than those found by EPA monitors last week and a Department of Energy monitor the week before. These types of findings are to be expected in the coming days and are still far below levels of public health concern.

EPA’s samples were captured by monitors in Alaska, Alabama, California, Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands and Washington state over the past week and sent to EPA scientists for detailed laboratory analysis.


Read more:

* EPA: Penn. and Mass. have seen elevated levels of radiation in rain — “Short-term elevations” not a health concern… How about Long-term?
* Feds admit radioactive xenon-133 from Fukushima detected TWO days ago in Washington State
* 3 different types of plutonium detected around Fukushima nuclear plant
* Confusion: Radiation still being released from Fukushima — Officials don’t know where it is coming from
* Friday at 7 pm ET: Steam coming from No. 3 reactor live on NHK (VIDEO)



http://enenews.com/epa-radioactive-isot ... oming-days
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby crikkett » Tue Mar 29, 2011 8:14 am

Image

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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby seemslikeadream » Tue Mar 29, 2011 10:15 am

Living and Dying Downwind

Radiation, Japan and the Marshall Islands

By GLENN ALCALAY

When the dangerous dust and gases settle and we discover just how much radiation escaped the damaged Fukushima reactors and spent fuel rods, we may never know how many people are being exposed to radiation from the burning fuel rods and reactor cores, and how much exposure they will receive over time. Minute and above-background traces of Iodine-131 are already showing up in Tokyo's water supply - 150 miles southwest of the leaking reactors - and in milk and spinach [with a dash of Cesium-137] from 75 miles away. The Japanese government has recently warned pregnant women and children to avoid drinking Tokyo tap water, and I-131 levels 1,200 times above background levels were recorded in seawater near the reactors.

Aside from sharing the dubious distinction of both nations having been at the receiving end of America's nuclear weapons, Japan and the Marshall Islands now share another dubious distinction. The unleashed isotopes of concern from the damaged Japanese reactors - Iodine-131, Cesium-137, Strontium-90 and Plutonium-239 - are well known to the Marshall Islanders living downwind of the testing sites at Bikini and Enewetak atolls in the central Pacific, following sixty-seven A- and H-bombs exploded between 1946-58. In fact, it is precisely these isotopes that continue to haunt the 80,000 Marshallese fifty-three years after the last thermonuclear test in the megaton range shook their pristine coral atolls and contaminated their fragile marine ecosystems.

In fact, it was the irradiated downwind Marshallese on Rongelap and Utrik in 1954 caught in the Bravo fallout - and I-131 - that taught the world about the thyroid effect from the uptake of radioactive iodine.

The U.S.' largest [fusion] hydrogen bomb - Bravo - was 1,000 times the Hiroshima atomic [fission] bomb, and deposited a liberal sprinkling of these and a potent potpourri of 300 other radionuclides over a wide swath of the Central Pacific and the inhabited atolls in the Marshalls archipelago in March 1954 during "Operation Castle."

The Rongelap islanders 120 miles downwind from Bikini received 190 rems [1.9 Sv] of whole-body gamma dose before being evacuated. The Utrik people 320 miles downwind received 15 rems [150 mSv] before their evacuation. Many of the on-site nuclear workers at Fukushima have already exceeded the Utrik dose in multiples.

Also entrapped within the thermonuclear maelstrom from Bravo was the not-so-Lucky Dragon [Fukuryu Maru] Japanese fishing trawler with its crew of twenty-three fishing for tuna near Bikini [see The Voyage of the Lucky Dragon by Ralph Lapp]. As the heavily exposed fishermen's health quickly deteriorated after Bravo, the radio operator Aikichi Kuboyama died of a liver illness six months after his exposure; his is now a household name in Japan and is associated with the "Bikini bomb."

Meanwhile, the Japanese fishing industry was rocked when Geiger counters registered "talking fish" [what the Japanese called the clicking sound of the contaminated fish being monitored] from the 800 pounds of tuna catch of the Lucky Dragon in Yaizu and in local fish markets. Much of the Japanese tuna at the time was caught by a fleet of 1,000 fishing boats operating in the fertile tuna waters near the U.S.' Pacific Proving Ground in the Marshalls.

In response to the plight and symbolism of the Lucky Dragon, Japanese women collected 34 million signatures on petitions advocating the immediate abolition of both atomic and hydrogen bombs in 1955. Pugwash, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning anti-nuclear organization was founded in 1955 by Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein in response to Bravo. The dangers of radioactive fallout from Bravo inspired Nevil Shute's classic nuclear dystopia On the Beach, as well as Godzilla.

To quell the diplomatic furor - whereby the Japanese representative to the U.N. accused the U.S. in March 1954 of "once again using nuclear weapons against the Japanese people" - the U.S. paid two million dollars to the fishing company which owned the Lucky Dragon; each of the 23 fishermen ended up with the princely sum of $5,000 in 1956 and the tuna company kept the rest.

AEC chair Lewis Strauss (who originally proposed nuclear energy "too cheap to meter" in the post-War Atoms for Peace program) told President Eisenhower's press secretary James Hagerty in April 1954 that the Lucky Dragon was not a fishing boat at all - it was a "Red spy outfit" snooping on the American nuclear tests.

The legacy of latent radiogenic diseases from hydrogen bomb testing in the Marshall Islands provides some clues about what ill-health mysteries await the affected Japanese in the decades ahead. Also, the Marshall Islands provide insight about ecosystem contamination of these dangerous radioactive isotopes, and what this means for the affected Japanese.

Profiles of the four isotopes

o Iodine-131 [radioactive iodine] has a half life of eight days, and concentrates in the thyroid gland about 5,000 times more efficiently than other parts of the body. Traces of I-131 have been discovered in Tokyo drinking water and in seawater offshore from the reactors. It took nine years for the first thyroid tumor to appear among the exposed Marshallese and hypothyroidism and cancer continued to appear decades later.

o Cesium-137 has a half life of thirty years and is a chemical analog of potassium; Cs-137 concentrates in muscle and other parts of the body. Rongelap Island has a new layer of topsoil containing potassium to help neutralize the Cs-137 left over from the H-bomb tests, but the Marshallese residents remain unconvinced and suspicious about the habitability of their long abandoned home atoll. Meanwhile, the U.S. is pressuring hard for their repatriation despite the fact that most islands at Rongelap will remain off limits for many decades with strict dietary restrictions of local foods.

o Strontium-90 has a half life of twenty-eight years, is a chemical analog of calcium and is known as a "bone seeker." Rongelap and the other downwind atolls have residual Sr-90 in their soils, groundwater and marine ecosystems.

o Plutonium-239 has a half life of 24,000 years, is considered one of the most toxic substances on Earth, and if absorbed is a potent alpha emitter that can induce cancer. This isotope too is found in the soils and groundwater of the downwind atolls from the Bikini and Enewetak H-bomb tests.

Lessons from the Marshall Islands

* It took nine years after exposure to the 1954 Bravo fallout for the first thyroid tumor and hypothyroidism to occur in an exposed Utrik woman from the I-131. Several more tumors [and other radiogenic disorders] among the exposed people appeared the following year and every year thereafter. The latency period for thyroid abnormalities and other radiogenic disorders [see below] endures for several decades.

* Because a child's thyroid gland is much smaller than an adult's thyroid, it receives a higher concentration of I-131 than an adult dose. Also, because a child's thyroid gland is growing more quickly than an adult's, it requires and absorbs more iodine [and I-131] than an adult thyroid gland. That is, the thyroid effect is age-related.

* Radioactive Iodine-129 with a half-life of 15 million years and a well-documented capacity to bioaccumulate in the foodchain, will also remain as a persistent problem for the affected Japanese.

* The Majuro-based Nuclear Claims Tribunal was established in 1988 to settle all past and future claims against the U.S. for health injury and property loss damages from the nuclear tests. As of 2006, the NCT had paid out $73 million [of the $91 million awarded] for 1,999 Marshallese claimants. There are thirty-six medical conditions that are presumed to be caused by the nuclear tests [http://www.nuclearclaimstribunal.com]. Eligibility for Marshallese citizens consists of having been in the Marshall Islands during the testing period [1946-58] and having at least one of the presumptive medical disorders.

* The sociocultural and psychological effects [e.g., PTSD] of the Fukushima nuclear disaster will be long-lasting, given the uncertainty surrounding the contamination of their prefecture and beyond. Psychiatrist Robert Jay Lifton eloquently detailed this uncertain future and fears about "invisible contamination" concerning the Hiroshima and Nagasaki "hibakusha" ["A-bomb survivors"] in his award-winning 1968 magnum opus Death in Life.

* Noted radiation experts John Gofman [co-discoverer of U-232 and U-233 and author of Radiation and Human Health], Karl Z. Morgan [a founder of health physics] and Edward Radford [Chair of the National Academy of Sciences' BEIR III committee and advisor to the Nuclear Claims Tribunal] stated that there is no threshold dose for low level ionizing radiation:

Any amount of ionizing radiation - which is cumulative - can pose a health threat for certain individuals, and especially those with compromised immune systems.
Mazars and Deutsche Bank could have ended this nightmare before it started.
They could still get him out of office.
But instead, they want mass death.
Don’t forget that.
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Re: Nuclear Meltdown Watch

Postby seemslikeadream » Tue Mar 29, 2011 3:59 pm

Japan Weighs Nationalizing Stricken Utility
By DAVID JOLLY
Published: March 29, 2011

TOKYO — Japanese lawmakers publicly debated nationalizing Tokyo Electric Power Company on Tuesday, as there seemed no end in sight to the problems at the company’s crippled nuclear power plant.

The prime minister’s office said the government was not considering a takeover of Tokyo Electric “at the moment.” But the plunging stock price indicated investors were abandoning hope that the company could cope with the cost of its rebuilding and the still unfathomable potential liabilities from its nuclear disaster.

The share price plunged an additional 19 percent Tuesday with virtually no buyers, before activating an automatic stop.

The closing price of 566 yen, or $6.93, was the stock’s lowest close since at least 1974. The day before the March 11 earthquake, the shares had closed at 2,153 yen — or $26.36. The stock collapse has already erased more than 2.5 trillion yen ($30.61 billion) in market value.

“There’s room for debate on the future of Tokyo Electric,” Koichiro Gemba, a member of the lower house of Parliament, said at a news conference. Mr. Gemba represents Fukushima Prefecture, where Tokyo Electric’s damaged plant, Fukushima Daiichi, is located. He is also the national strategy minister in the cabinet of Prime Minister Naoto Kan.

Mr. Gemba spoke not long after the country’s largest newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun, cited unidentified people as saying the government was considering a plan to temporarily acquire a majority stake in the company, help it shoulder the liabilities that are likely to be incurred from the nuclear accident, and then eventually take it private once again.

But fearing that a debate about the future of the company could create a divisive and costly distraction at a time of crisis, Mr. Kan and his chief spokesman, Yukio Edano, sought to tamp down the speculation.

“At the moment, the government is not considering” nationalization, Mr. Edano said Tuesday at a televised news conference. He added: “The first priority is the accident response. Then it needs to help those who’ve been affected.”

If the government were to acquire a majority stake, Tepco — as the company is known — would presumably issue new stock to the state, diluting existing shareholders.

The utility’s image has been hurt by the rolling blackouts it has instituted to cope with the loss of generating capacity after the earthquake and by the fact that its president, Masataka Shimizu, was invisible for several days after the quake. Tepco said Monday that Mr. Shimizu had been sick but had since returned to work.

Taxpayers outside the greater Tokyo area that the company serves are likely to balk at the cost of what could be seen as a bailout.

But with no end in sight to its nuclear problem, Tokyo Electric will have to lean on the state for support, analysts say.

“If you were the government, would you let it go bust?” said Paul J. Scalise, a former financial analyst who is writing a book on Japan’s electric power system. “I think the answer is no. The effect on the larger economy at a critical time would be too great.”

Estimates in the Japanese news media had already put the damage from the radiation leak to local homes, businesses and farms in the trillions of yen, even without knowing if anyone would suffer health damage. But it is impossible to calculate what the ultimate cost to the company will be. That is partly because the crisis appears to be far from over, and partly because it is not clear how much of the liability will actually be Tepco’s to bear.

Mr. Scalise said that under Japanese law governing compensation for nuclear damage, companies are liable for the cost of all nuclear accidents resulting from reactor operations except when the accidents are provoked by a “grave natural disaster of an exceptional nature or by an insurrection.” The company might plausibly seek to avoid liability altogether within that definition, he said.

Nicholas Benes, a former investment banker who is head of the Board Director Training Institute of Japan, an executive training group, said Tepco’s legal liability related to the Fukushima Daiichi plant would be covered by private and government insurance up to 120 billion yen, and even over that amount the government had wide latitude to provide financial assistance.

“I just don’t see the case for nationalization at this point,” Mr. Benes said. “Unless it’s for safety reasons — for example if you think the company is utterly incapable of managing itself. But even then you’d have to assume that a bunch of nuclear engineers put together hodge-podge by the government would do a better job than the company’s own management. I don’t think the bureaucrats possibly believe that, or would want the responsibility.”

He and others said that Mr. Kan might also prefer to keep the company at arm’s length to avoid having it serve as a lightning rod for criticism of his administration.

Kazuma Ogino and Toshihiro Uomoto, credit analysts at Nomura Securities, suggested in a report that what was under discussion might best be described as “a virtual nationalization,” in which the state would provide the company “with the means of paying compensation on almost all fronts.”

If the state is going to end up paying most of the cost anyway, they wrote, “it would make more sense to temporarily nationalize Tepco” to “move ahead with the recovery work, rather than just paying compensation.”

The decline in the stock does not immediately endanger Tepco’s survival, although its cost of capital is tied to its share price. Tepco is in negotiations for loans of as much as 2 trillion yen ($24.49 billion), a person close to potential lenders said last week.

In any case, Mr. Benes said it was probable that senior executives would be ousted if Tepco were nationalized or received some sort of government bailout. “It’s not necessarily an admission of fault or negligence,” he said. “It’s just what society demands, ritualistically, so as to move on.”


Published on Tuesday, March 29, 2011 by the Associated Press
Japan on ‘Maximum Alert’ as Nuclear Crisis Deepens
by Mari Yamaguchi and Yuri Kageyama
TOKYO—Japan’s prime minister insisted Tuesday that the country was on “maximum alert” to bring its nuclear crisis under control, but the spread of radiation raised concerns about the ability of experts to stabilize the crippled reactor complex.


An evacuee shows his fatigue at the main floor of a high school gymnasium that has turned into an evacuation center in Watari, Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, Tuesday, March 29, 2011. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
Prime Minister Naoto Kan told parliament that Japan was grappling with its worst problems since World War II.

“This quake, tsunami and the nuclear accident are the biggest crises for Japan” in decades, said the wan but resolute Kan, dressed in one of the blue work jackets that have become ubiquitous among bureaucrats since the tsunami.

He said the crises remained unpredictable, but added: “We will continue to handle it in a state of maximum alert.”

The magnitude-9.0 offshore earthquake on March 11 triggered a tsunami that slammed minutes later into Japan’s northeast, wiping out towns and knocking out power and backup systems at the coastal Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.

Police said more than 11,000 bodies have been recovered, but the final death toll is expected to exceed 18,000.

Hundreds of thousands remain homeless, their homes and livelihoods destroyed. Damage could amount to $310 billion — the most expensive natural disaster on record, the government said.

Against the backdrop of the humanitarian disaster, the drama at the power plant has unfolded, with workers fighting fires, explosions, radiation scares and miscalculations in the frantic bid to prevent a complete meltdown.

The plant has been leaking radiation that has made its way into vegetables, raw milk and tap water as far away as Tokyo. Residents within 20 kilometres of the plant were ordered to leave and some nations banned the imports of food products from the Fukushima region.

Highly toxic plutonium was the latest contaminant found seeping into the soil outside the plant, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

Safety officials said the amounts did not pose a risk to humans, but they said the finding supports suspicions that dangerously radioactive water is leaking from damaged nuclear fuel rods.

“The situation is very grave,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters Tuesday. “We are doing our utmost to contain the damage.”

Kan, meanwhile, faced stinging criticism from opposition lawmakers over the handling of a nuclear disaster stretching into a third week.

“We cannot let you handle the crisis,” lawmaker Yosuke Isozaki said in parliament. “We cannot let you be in charge of Japan’s crisis management.”

Edano admitted Tuesday that Japanese safety standards were not enough to protect the complex against the tsunami’s power.

“Our preparedness was not sufficient,” Edano told reporters. “When the current crisis is over, we must examine the accident closely and thoroughly review” safety standards.

An AP investigation following the tsunami found that TEPCO officials had dismissed scientific evidence and geological history that indicated that a massive earthquake — and subsequent tsunami — was far more likely than they believed.

The plant was pounded by water far higher and stronger than the complex was prepared to endure, the investigation found.

The urgent mission to stabilize the Fukushima plant has been fraught with setbacks.

Workers succeeded last week in reconnecting some parts of the plant to the power grid.

But as they pumped water into units to cool the reactors down, they discovered pools of contaminated water in numerous spots, including the basements of several buildings and in tunnels outside them.

The contaminated water has been emitting radiation exposures more than four times the amount the government considers safe for workers and must be pumped out before electricity can be restored to the cooling system.

That has left officials struggling with two crucial but sometimes-contradictory efforts: pumping in water to keep the fuel rods cool and pumping out contaminated water and safely storing it.

Nuclear safety official Hidehiko Nishiyama said cooling the reactors had taken precedence over concerns about leakage.

“The removal of the contaminated water is the most urgent task now, and hopefully we can adjust the amount of cooling water going in,” he said, adding that workers were building sandbag dikes to keep contaminated water from seeping into the soil outside.

The discovery of plutonium, released from fuel rods only when temperatures are extremely high, confirms the severity of the damage, Nishiyama said.

Plutonium is a highly toxic substance which breaks down very slowly, remaining dangerously radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years.

“If you inhale it, it’s there and it stays there forever,” said Alan Lockwood, a professor of Neurology and Nuclear Medicine at the University at Buffalo and a member of the board of directors of Physicians for Social Responsibility, an advocacy group.
Mazars and Deutsche Bank could have ended this nightmare before it started.
They could still get him out of office.
But instead, they want mass death.
Don’t forget that.
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