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JackRiddler » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:56 pm wrote:alloneword » Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:54 pm wrote:JackRiddler » Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:49 pm wrote:Two days in a row, 600 dead in New York City. That is four times the average number of deaths in a day, a variation that could never just happen. There is no precedent in the last century that did not involve collapsing towers or other major disasters.
I'm sorry, but I have to ask... Where are those figure from?
The NYC data I'm seeing has the daily number of deaths peaking at 258 on 31st March, and declining since.
Right above the chart it says:
Due to delays in reporting,
recent data are incomplete.
JackRiddler » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:56 pm wrote:Saturday-Sunday-Monday deaths in New York City were reported as 630-594-599 by New York State at Cuomo's press conference. (No, I don't think they make up death numbers, but there are those who will.) Average deaths per day in recent years has been on the order of 150. (Which, as you know, puzzles me for reasons I described in the other thread.) My sources (real human friends) near major treatment centers in Brooklyn and Queens report the noisiest siren days by far.
ON EDIT: I expect discrepancy is because the nyc.gov data is after they've determined Covid as cause, whereas the NYS numbers from the Cuomo conferences seem to be total deaths in NYC. So 4x normal, but then something like 1/4 of that is still the normal?
alloneword » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:31 am wrote:
Now, so much more than ever, we need to be very careful to check what we're being told - or what we think we're being told. That's easy to say, but not easy to do in a climate of fear, bordering hysteria. But do it we must. Or we really, really are utterly fucked.
We are using nature’s goods and life-support services faster than ecosystems can regenerate. There are simply too many people consuming too much stuff. Even at current global average levels of consumption (about a third of the Canadian average) the human population far exceeds the long-term carrying capacity of Earth. We’d need almost five Earth-like planets to support just the present world population indefinitely at Canadian average material standards. Gaian theory tells us that life continuously creates the conditions necessary for life. Yet humanity has gone rogue, rapidly destroying those conditions.
When will the media call on systems ecologists to explain what’s really going on? If they did, we might learn the following:
That the current pandemic is an inevitable consequence of human populations everywhere expanding into the habitats of other species with which we have had little previous contact (Homosapiens is the most invasive of “invasive species.”)
That the pandemic results from sometimes desperately impoverished people eating bushmeat, the flesh of wild species carrying potentially dangerous pathogens.
That contagious disease is readily propagated because of densification and urbanization — think Wuhan or New York — but particularly (as we may soon see) because of the severe overcrowding of vulnerable people in the burgeoning slums and barrios of the developing world.
That the coronavirus thrives because three billion people still lack basic hand-washing facilities and more than four billion lack adequate sanitation services.
A population ecologist might even dare explain that, even when it comes to human numbers, whatever goes up must come down.
None of this is visible through our current economic lens that assumes a perpetually growing, globalized market economy.
Prevailing myth notwithstanding, nothing in nature can grow forever.
When, under especially favourable conditions any species’ population balloons, it is always deflated by one or several forms of negative feedback — disease, inadequate habitat, self-pollution, food shortages, resource scarcity, conflict over what’s left (war), etc. All of these various countervailing forces are triggered by excess population itself.
The problem is that Earth is a finite planet, on which the seven-fold increase in human numbers, vastly augmented by a 100-fold increase in consumption, is systematically destroying prospects for continued civilized existence. Over-harvesting is depleting non-renewable resources; land degradation, pollution and global warming are destroying entire ecosystems; biophysical life support functions are beginning to fail.
With increasing real scarcity, growing extraction costs and burgeoning human demand, the prices for non-renewable metal and mineral resources have been rising for 20 years (from historic lows at the turn of the century). Meanwhile, petroleum may have peaked in 2018 signalling the pending implosion of the oil industry (abetted by falling demand and prices resulting from the COVID-19 recession).
These are all signs of resurgent negative feedback. The explosion of human consumption is beginning to resemble the plague phase of what may turn out to be a one-off human population cycle. If we don’t manage a controlled contraction, chaotic collapse is inevitable.
operator kos » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:29 pm wrote:The fact is, of people who have tested positive for COVID-19, 5.6% have died. Another 19% suffer severe or critical symptoms.
alloneword » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:03 pm wrote:operator kos » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:29 pm wrote:The fact is, of people who have tested positive for COVID-19, 5.6% have died. Another 19% suffer severe or critical symptoms.
Could you walk me through your maths here (with exact sources), please?
alloneword » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:11 pm wrote:Yes. Hence my asking.
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
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