Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[alloneword]

Ah, you're using 'global' figures. Thanks. I queried it as the US CFR figure is <3%.

Calculating CFR for any region is tricky, as it doesn't account for the multitude of asymptomatic (hence untested) infected out there, plus is biased by the fact that the less healthy are generally prioritised for testing - and that's before we get into the failure to differentiate between those that die 'with' Corvid and those that die 'of' it.

[thrulookingglass]

"There are simply too many people consuming too much stuff." No. Corprataucracy capitalism has lead to a gross misdistribution of goods and services. Our obscene infatuation with war, being the primary industry of the US (and many other nations) has left us with little in our hands but smoking guns and a pile of mangled human corpses. Imagine if our resources had been focused logically rather than on who can make a buck off a speck of Earth. There is a gross misuse of resources. There is a gross stock taken against what a human life is worth. And yes, this atrocity, this menace of a disease will affect the poor much greater than the wealthy. Gross imbalances. Yes, perhaps we should very much reflect on what we value in life, in what we have put forth, and what we would like to see for our self and others. World Peace is actually extremely important. When you work for money, that is your objective, to earn money. When you work for common good, you probably wouldn't find yourself in the same situation you're experiencing now. Where is our heart in all this? Where is yours? When's the last time we saw sympathy for convicted persons or the homeless become serious discussions in the United States, or anywhere it is necessary. The media never touch these issues and that's part of the problem plain and simple. Afraid to admit the money machine is just a brobdingnagian monopoly game. I love my $1000 prada bag more than you. What we/one values in life is extremely important for it defines its contents. Humans fight literal wars of violence for control over the Earth's resources when they should be shared and used wisely by us earth bound souls. The quakes from this disease will be felt for a while globally. Time for a change. Its not too far off to say this could cause war too. This destabilization of the populace. Things have been run on shit for so long it was bound to fall apart sooner or later. Its why you have to take care of things. Care: to be concerned about. Having a capacity for moral decisions and therefore accountability, capable of rational thought or action. Responsible. The billionaires don't want us back to work just for profit, they don't want the machine to break down. They don't want the curtain pulled back on a monstrous machine with fucked up priorities and toxic wastes as an end product. Must retain economic warfare paradigm!

First day ever having to go to a super market with a mask on. This shit is awful. Store is doing everything it can to make the shelves looked stocked. Spreading out the vittles. Its a great day when your best comment is, "there's still food at the super market." F@#$ me. Weather picked up in the area some. Little touch of spring. Workers are starting to realize organizing is important, "Danger capitalist pig! Danger!" Hang in there baby.

[JackRiddler]

.

What is meant when one says New York/New Yorker is often fuzzy.

Neverthless, I'm pretty sure the 600 number is for NYC, five boroughs, not the state. And if not, then 500 or more of the 600 will still be in NYC, where the dense clusters are.

So whatever is happening -- we will see the right numbers -- is big, not yet headed for "millions" big as in the worst case projections, but big in the sense that two to four times the normal number of deaths in NYC are occurring and contagion is the only main explanation. (Plus some number not getting care they would have gotten on a normal day.)

Sorting this out is going to take time. This article may shed some light, and would again explain discrepancies between the lower official Covid death count on the city site and the higher counts thrown about during the last three days, which may be actual total deaths from all causes but, again, would be a round multiple, two to four times the normal death rate.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number ... ted-deaths

Staggering Surge Of NYers Dying In Their Homes Suggests City Is Undercounting Coronavirus Fatalities
BY GWYNNE HOGAN, WNYC
APRIL 7, 2020 6:00 A.M. • 133 COMMENTS

[...]

As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday.

But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.

Listen to reporter Gwynne Hogan discuss her story on WNYC:


That’s because the ME’s office is not testing dead bodies for COVID-19. Instead, they’re referring suspected cases to the city’s health department as “probable.”

“If someone dies at home, and we go to the home and there [are] signs of influenza, our medical examiner may determine the cause of death was clearly an influenza-like illness, potentially COVID or an influenza-like illness believed to be COVID,” said Worthy-Davis. “We report all our deaths citywide to the health department, who releases that data to the public.”

But the health department does not include that number in the official count unless it is confirmed, a spokesman said.

“Every person with a lab confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis is counted in the number of fatalities,” the spokesman, Michael Lanza, said in an email. He said the city's coronavirus death tally does not break down who died at home versus who died in a hospital from the virus.

“While undiagnosed cases that result in at-home deaths are connected to a public health pandemic...not all suspected COVID-19 deaths are brought in for examination by OCME, nor do we provide testing in most of these natural at-home deaths,” Lanza said.

Typically, when someone dies at home, a loved one, acquaintance or neighbor calls the police or 911. First responders call in the medical examiner, who conducts a review to determine if there was foul play, then records a cause of death.

Worthy-Davis could not immediately provide a tally of how many “probable” COVID-19 deaths have been referred to the Health Department. The health department also could not provide the number of “probable” COVID deaths certified by OCME.

If a person had been tested before death, that record would be passed along, said Worthy-Davis. But testing protocols have generally excluded victims who are not hospitalized.

Statistics from the Fire Department, which runs EMS, confirm a staggering rise in deaths occurring at the scene before first responders can transport a person to a hospital for care.

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)

[...]

[identity]

Swiss Propaganda Research update, Apr. 6/7:

The latest figures from a special report by the German Robert Koch Institute show that the so-called positive rate (i.e. the number of test positives per number of tests) is increasing much more slowly than the exponential curves shown by the media and was only around 10% at the end of March, a value that is rather typical for corona viruses. According to the magazine Multipolar, there can therefore be „no question of a dangerously rapid spread of the virus“.

Professor Klaus Püschel, head of forensic medicine in Hamburg, explains about Covid19: „This virus influences our lives in a completely excessive way. This is disproportionate to the danger posed by the virus. And the astronomical economic damage now being caused is not commensurate with the danger posed by the virus. I am convinced that the Corona mortality rate will not even show up as a peak in annual mortality.“ In Hamburg, for example, „not a single person who was not previously ill“ had died of the virus: „All those we have examined so far had cancer, a chronic lung disease, were heavy smokers or severely obese, suffered from diabetes or had a cardiovascular disease. The virus was the last straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak. „Covid-19 is a fatal disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a predominantly harmless viral infection.“

In addition, Dr. Püschel explains: „In quite a few cases, we have also found that the current corona infection has nothing whatsoever to do with the fatal outcome because other causes of death are present, for example a brain haemorrhage or a heart attack. Corona in itself is a „not particularly dangerous viral disease“, says the forensic scientist. He pleads for statistics based on concrete examination results. „All speculations about individual deaths that have not been expertly examined only fuel anxiety.“ Contrary to the guidelines of the Robert Koch Institute, Hamburg had recently started to differentiate between deaths „with the“ and „by the“ coronavirus, which led to a decrease in Covid19 deaths.

The German virologist Hendrik Streeck is currently conducting a pilot study to determine the distribution and transmission routes of the Covid19 pathogen. In an interview he explains: „I took a closer look at the cases of 31 of the 40 people who died in the Heinsberg district – and was not very surprised that these people died. One of the deceased was older than 100 years, so even a common cold could have led to death.“ Contrary to original assumptions, Streeck has not been able to prove transmission via door handles and the like (i.e. so-called smear infections).

The first Swiss hospitals have to announce short-time work due to the very low capacity utilization: „The staff in all departments has too little to do and has reduced overtime in a first step. Now short-time work is also being registered. The financial consequences are severe.“ As a reminder, a study by ETH Zurich based on largely unrealistic assumptions predicted the first bottlenecks in Swiss clinics by April 2. So far this has not happened anywhere.

In Switzerland, there was a pronounced wave of influenza at the beginning of 2017. At that time, there were almost 1500 additional deaths in the over 65-year-old population in the first six weeks of the year. Normally, around 1300 people die in Switzerland every year as a result of pneumonia, 95% of whom are over 65 years old. By comparison, a total of 762 deaths with (not caused by) Covid19 are currently reported in Switzerland.

The managing director of a German environmental laboratory suspects that the inhabitants of the northern Italian region of Lombardy are particularly susceptible to viral infections such as Covid19 due to a notoriously high legionella contamination: „If the lungs are weakened by a viral infection, as in the current situation, bacteria have an easy job, can negatively influence the course of the disease and cause complications.“ In Lombardy, regional pneumonia outbreaks had already occurred in the past due to evaporation cooling systems contaminated with legionella.

On the basis of information from China, medical protocols have been defined worldwide that rapidly provide invasive artificial respiration by intubation for test-positive intensive care patients. On the one hand, the protocols assume that a more gentle non-invasive ventilation through a mask is too weak, on the other hand there is the fear that the „dangerous virus“ could otherwise spread through aerosols. As early as March, however, German physicians pointed out that intubation can lead to additional lung damage and has an overall poor chance of success. In the meantime, US physicians have also come forward who describe intubation as „more harm than good“ for patients. Patients often do not suffer from acute lung failure, but rather from a kind of altitude sickness, which is made worse by artificial respiration with increased pressure. In February, South Korean physicians reported that critical Covid19 patients respond well to oxygen therapy without a ventilator. The US physician mentioned above warns that the use of ventilators must be urgently reconsidered in order not to cause additional damage.

The official US Covid19 projections so far have overestimated hospitalisations by a factor of 8, ICU beds needed by a factor of 6.4, and ventilators needed by a factor of 40.5.

Renowned US statistician Nate Silver explains why „coronavirus case counts are meaningless„, unless you know more about the number and way of testing.

Further notes

The website of Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg, one of the earliest and internationally best known critics of the Covid19 panic, was deleted for a few hours today by the German provider Jimdo and only went online again after strong protests. It is not known whether the temporary deletion was due to general complaints or a political instruction.

The university email address of emeritus professor Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, who wrote an Open Letter to Chancellor Angela Merkel, was deactivated earlier, but was also reactivated after protests.

On 2nd April the Danish Parliament adopted a new law that prohibits the publication of information on Covid-19 that does not comply with the government’s guidelines and allows the deletion of websites and the punishment or imprisonment of authors. Some commentators immediately withdrew as a result.

The German author and journalist Harald Wiesendanger writes in an article that his profession is completely failing in the current crisis: „How a profession that is supposed to control the powerful as an independent, critical, impartial Fourth Estate can succumb as quickly as lightning to the same collective hysteria as its audience, almost unanimously, and give itself over to court reporting, government propaganda and expert deification: It’s incomprehensible to me, it disgusts me, I’ve had enough of it, I dissociate myself from this unworthy performance with complete shame.

Original with links at https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

[alloneword]

.

I'm pretty sure the 600 number is for NYC, five boroughs, not the state. And if not, then 500 or more of the 600 will still be in NYC, where the dense clusters are.

The current data from 'covidtracking' gives the exact figure (4,758) for New York State as was quoted by Cuomo. The figure for NYC is given as 2,738, 56% of the state total.

(will add more later...)

[JackRiddler]

.

I'm pretty sure the 600 number is for NYC, five boroughs, not the state. And if not, then 500 or more of the 600 will still be in NYC, where the dense clusters are.

The current data from 'covidtracking' gives the exact figure (4,758) for New York State as was quoted by Cuomo. The figure for NYC is given as 2,738, 56% of the state total.

(will add more later...)

Okay, the 600 figure is definitively for New York State. Was wrong. Though today it has gone up again:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/nyre ... pdate.html

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Tuesday that 731 people had died of the virus since Monday, the state’s highest one-day total yet by more than 100.

And 731 is stated as "of the virus," but it could be total deaths or close to it. We know the problem of with/of (and also: untested/maybe), but 731 well exceeds the 450 daily total death average for state. A rough 56% of that would imply more than 400 for NYC, or now approaching 3x greater than the daily average of deaths there.

So can we (at least those of us under the sway of germ theory) allow definitively that this thing is happening, independently of artifactual effects or manipulations, and regardless of how bad it will get, which projection turns out correct, etc.? (It occurs to me, given strain evolution, that no projection can turn out correct, just one or another will look correct in retrospect years from now.)

.

[Nordic]

Yes. Hence my asking.

79,091 deaths / 1,390,511 cases = 5.69% mortality rate. It's right there in big red and white numbers at the top of the first link, so I'm not sure what the confusion is.

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

It's right under "Key Findings" near the top of the second link, so I'm not sure what the confusion is.

You’re kidding. Those numbers for mortality rate are meaningless. A “case” is someone who has tested positive. And it’s a known known that the number of people who HAVE it versus the number of people who have tested positive is utterly unknown. I’ve seen that 80% of the people who have it, meaning those who would test positive IF THEY WERE TESTED, have no symptoms, or not enough to warrant concern, thus aren’t tested.

So nobody can give an actual “mortality rate” right now. Nobody. Zero.

It’s so dishonest to even claim a mortality rate unless you’re just ignorant AF.

[JackRiddler]

Please just be fucking good to each other. (And no, pointing out alleged hypocrisy on my part for saying that is not an excuse for what you do.) People think a lot of different things right now, right or wrong. It's a crazy and unprecedented time. There are people here who are real and honest, oldtimers and relative newbies, skeptical of the PTB, critical-thinking, observant, and deserving of personal respect, and yet there is a huge range right now for observation, opinion, belief and expectations regarding what is happening, the extent of the coronavirus disaster, and to what degree the measures are warranted or fascistic overreach.

...

So, I was dropping in here to ask if anyone had any opinions on just what is going on with Trump, and his followers, and belief in the powers of HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE?

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[norton ash]

https://www.axios.com/gilead-expands-ex ... 5a129.html

The patented balm of Gilead that Navarro, Trump and the Red Team were already planning for back in January.

Common Dreams March 24/20

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/ ... FPLiJMmH1A

[norton ash]

WaPo on Navarro the prophet. His book is called 'Death by China' to demonstrate how much he hates them. (Woo.)

If hydroxychloroquine turns out to be effective and Gilead gets to sell boatloads of it, this will be the worst Scooby Doo ending EVER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... us-threat/

The influence of Navarro’s memos on Trump’s approach isn’t clear. But, usefully in this moment, he can point to ways in which he was ahead of the curve. The January memo contrasted the costs of addressing coronavirus with the costs of the seasonal flu, noting how the two differed in both scale and danger. His February memo warned of an “increasing probability of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic that could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls” — an estimate in line with later estimates, including one from Imperial College London that reportedly helped push the administration to take stronger action in addressing the virus.

“Would you take [the drug hydroxychloroquine] if you got sick?” Navarro asked CNN's John Berman.

“Would I take it if I got sick? I would listen to my doctor about whether or not I should take it,” Berman replied. “I would consult my doctor, not someone involved with trade policy. Do you want an internist striking trade deals?"

Who writes this stuff?

[Grizzly]

Army germ lab shut down by CDC in 2019 had several 'serious' protocol violations that year
hxxps://wjla.com/news/local/cdc-shut-down-army-germ-lab-health-concerns

Also, READ: Army germ research lab in Md. that was working on Ebola treatment is shut down by CDC

[0_0]

[identity]

Researchers at the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre are recruiting coronavirus-positive participants in a clinical study.

The study, which is spearheaded by the Montreal Heart Institute Research Centre, looks at whether an existing drug can reduce the risk of lung complications and death.

Experts said the majority of COVID-19 cases are mild but some patients develop complications and appear to have a "major inflammatory storm."

The study, called colcorona, will test patients using colchicine, which is a drug typically used to treat gout.

"It is a powerful anti-inflammatory agent and we believe that it is key to prevent the complications of COVID-19," said Dr. Jean-Claude Tardif with the MHI. Tardif said the institute recently tested 4,700 patients in another colchicine study.

"We know that it is safe," he said. "We have demonstrated the safety and tolerability of colchicine, so there's no doubt about that."

They are currently recruiting participants who meet the following criteria:

show symptoms of COVID-19;
40 years and older;
not hospitalized;
willing to take the drug or placebo daily for 30 days;
and willing to participate in two follow-up calls.

Tardif said in an "ideal world" it would be preferred if the patients have been swabbed and tested positive for the virus, but he said people who live in the same household as someone who's tested positive and are showing symptoms, and people who are typically healthy and suddenly show signs of COVID-19 (cough, shortness of breath, fever and fatigue) would also be accepted.

"A few months from now, when the dust settles, hopefully we will do a blood test to confirm by antibodies that these patients indeed had the disease, so not every participant needed to have tested positive," he said.

MHI has partnered with researchers in Vancouver and New York and soon, Ontario, Spain, California will be added to the list.

"We want this study to be completed rapidly because we are actually very optimistic that we may provide a significant part of the solution to this horrible situation that we're all faced with in the world," he said.

Participants will not have to leave their homes, he said, adding the drugs will be delivered to the door and all the correspondences with nurses are done over the phone.

A world-class discovery in Montreal

November 16, 2019

The COLCOT clinical trial demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events with a low-cost drug already available.

The Montreal Heart Institute (MHI) today announced results from the COLchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial (COLCOT). The clinical trial compared colchicine to placebo on top of standard of care in preventing ischemic cardiovascular events in patients who recently suffered from a heart attack (myocardial infarction). In this study, patients receiving colchicine 0.5mg daily had a significantly lower rate of ischemic cardiovascular events (first and recurrent) than those on placebo1.


These results were published today in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) and simultaneously presented at the American Heart Association (AHA) Late-Breaking Scientific Session.

In summary, colchicine significantly reduces the risk of a first ischemic cardiovascular event and of total ischemic cardiovascular events by 23% and 34% respectively in addition to standard of care in patients with a recent myocardial infarction (MI).

The primary efficacy endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, MI, stroke or urgent hospitalization for angina requiring coronary revascularization1. Patients were also treated according to national guidelines that included the intensive use of statins1.

The trial demonstrated that the treatment with colchicine reduced by:

• 23% the risk of a first event of the primary efficacy endpoint;
• 34% the risk of total (first and recurrent) events of the primary efficacy endpoint;
• 29% the risk of a first event of the primary efficacy endpoint in patients who adhered to the protocol.
“The data from the COLCOT trial underscore the potential of colchicine as an efficient and critically needed therapy for reducing inflammation post-myocardial infarction to improve patient cardiovascular outcomes.” said Dr. Jean-Claude Tardif.

Researchers at the MHI have been testing Colchicine, an anti-inflammatory, which appears to reduce some of the grave effects of respiratory distress brought on by Covid-19. Respiratory failure caused by inflammation is the major cause of death from the virus. Colchicine is actually in pharmacies around the world. It is not a new drug and costs less than a dollar a day in prescription protocols. The study will involve 6000 people and the MHI has 40 nurses working 24/7 to take calls from people willing to participate and see if they meet the criteria. You can consult the website at COLCORONA.ORG.

MHI research director Dr. Jean-Claude Tardif told La Presse, “We have literally not slept for six days. Honestly, I think we have never seen this in history where a clinical study has been organized like this.What normally takes six months has been done in six days. The mobilization of doctors, researchers, private enterprises and governments has been absolutely extraordinary. If this works, and we stop the worst effects of the virus, it changes everything. The pressure on hospitals will be off as we won’t need to hospitalize so many and we won’t need quarantines.”

The MHI has been at the centre of a remarkable public/private partnership. The COLCORONA project was co-ordinated with the Centre for Clinical Studies of Montreal, financed by the Government of Quebec, the technological platform was developed by CGI, Pharmascience is producing the Colchicine and Telus installed the phone lines and communication platform.

Colchicine is a medication normally used to treat gout and Behçet’s disease. In gout, it is less preferred to NSAIDs or steroids. Other uses include the prevention of pericarditis and familial Mediterranean fever. It is taken by mouth. It is generally prescribed for a short-term and the MHI study will seek to determine if that is sufficient to reduce the risks of pulmonary complications and death related to Covid.

http://www.icm-mhi.org

[liminalOyster]

Extremely interesting, thanks identity. Interestingly, I've heard there's a big pushback on ventilators because they stand to increase viral load (and are meant to help the lungs rather than oxygenate the blood.) Wonder how that might or might not relate to the politics of it all. More "dying at home" also means less "official deaths" and is presumably good for many parties.

[Joe Hillshoist]

Extremely interesting, thanks identity. Interestingly, I've heard there's a big pushback on ventilators because they stand to increase viral load (and are meant to help the lungs rather than oxygenate the blood.) Wonder how that might or might not relate to the politics of it all. More "dying at home" also means less "official deaths" and is presumably good for many parties.

Ventilators are bad because they force air into the lungs and can damage remaining lung tissue like air sacks apparently.

They probably mess with gas exchange balances too.