Anthropogenic climate change poll

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Is Anthropogenic climate change a reality?

Absolutely. There is no longer any doubt.
25
34%
Yes. While the data is still debatable, it's just a question of degree.
22
30%
agnostic
9
12%
Probably not. Climate change is much more likely due to natural causes.
6
8%
No. The theory of anthropogenic climate change is a deliberate fraud.
6
8%
Who cares?
3
4%
You'll have to pry my incandescent light bulbs out of my cold, dead hands.
2
3%
 
Total votes : 73

Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby wintler2 » Sun May 06, 2012 10:49 pm

Latest Southern Ocean research shows continuing deep ocean change
..Comparing detailed measurements taken during the Australian Antarctic program's 2012 Southern Ocean marine science voyage to historical data dating back to 1970, scientists estimate there has been as much as a 60 per cent reduction in the volume of Antarctic Bottom Water, the cold dense water that drives global ocean currents. ..

Not in the article but strongly indicated by these observations is..
Antarctic glacial melt = more freshwater into ocean = Less bottom-water circulation = hotter tropics & colder high latitudes & less co2 absorbtion by ocean.
Sure theres endless bad news on climate, but its the planet-scale impacts of the thermohaline conveyors that make this big bad news. Goodbye holocene, it was swell while it lasted.

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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Ben D » Tue May 29, 2012 8:10 pm

As I suspected...

The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks

Nature Climate Change (2012) Published online 27 May 2012

Seeming public apathy over climate change is often attributed to a deficit in comprehension. The public knows too little science, it is claimed, to understand the evidence or avoid being misled. Widespread limits on technical reasoning aggravate the problem by forcing citizens to use unreliable cognitive heuristics to assess risk. We conducted a study to test this account and found no support for it. Members of the public with the highest degrees of science literacy and technical reasoning capacity were not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, they were the ones among whom cultural polarization was greatest.
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** or Nirvana, Allah, Brahman, Tao, etc...
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Simulist » Tue May 29, 2012 8:54 pm

Ben D wrote:As I suspected...

The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks

Nature Climate Change (2012) Published online 27 May 2012

Seeming public apathy over climate change is often attributed to a deficit in comprehension. The public knows too little science, it is claimed, to understand the evidence or avoid being misled. Widespread limits on technical reasoning aggravate the problem by forcing citizens to use unreliable cognitive heuristics to assess risk. We conducted a study to test this account and found no support for it. Members of the public with the highest degrees of science literacy and technical reasoning capacity were not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, they were the ones among whom cultural polarization was greatest.

That's not surprising — but certainly not for the reasons some climate-change deniers might suspect.

One of the byproducts of "education" is that the more "educated" one becomes, the more plugged-in to the prevailing culture one might easily also be. The prevailing "wisdom" of this culture is that, yes, climate change is a "problem," but a solvable one! — solvable even without the most radical possible changes to that aforementioned prevailing culture.

This "wisdom," of course, is a lie.

But one that, unfortunately, many so-called "educated" people too often easily fall prey to, given the extent to which they also remain artifacts of their culture.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby tazmic » Wed May 30, 2012 3:39 am

Simulist wrote:
Ben D wrote:As I suspected...

The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks

Nature Climate Change (2012) Published online 27 May 2012

Seeming public apathy over climate change is often attributed to a deficit in comprehension. The public knows too little science, it is claimed, to understand the evidence or avoid being misled. Widespread limits on technical reasoning aggravate the problem by forcing citizens to use unreliable cognitive heuristics to assess risk. We conducted a study to test this account and found no support for it. Members of the public with the highest degrees of science literacy and technical reasoning capacity were not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, they were the ones among whom cultural polarization was greatest.

That's not surprising — but certainly not for the reasons some climate-change deniers might suspect.

One of the byproducts of "education" is that the more "educated" one becomes, the more plugged-in to the prevailing culture one might easily also be. The prevailing "wisdom" of this culture is that, yes, climate change is a "problem," but a solvable one! — solvable even without the most radical possible changes to that aforementioned prevailing culture.

This "wisdom," of course, is a lie.

But one that, unfortunately, many so-called "educated" people too often easily fall prey to, given the extent to which they also remain artifacts of their culture.

This argument against public consensus, whilst applicable regardless of what the dominant consensus may be (and so I expect to see you using it when everyone agrees with you), seems a bit chicken or egg.

Regardless, the study found that the more educated displayed the largest polarization of opinion and the less educated tended to agree with what they were told was important. I don't see how your argument addresses this.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Saurian Tail » Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:29 pm

Reposted from Fruh's "Rectal Thermometers" (!!!) thread ...

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=34904

Spring 2012: most extreme season in U.S. history

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:08 PM GMT on June 08, 2012

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2115

Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.

Image

Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event

The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.

Image

Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

continued at link ...

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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby brainpanhandler » Mon Jun 11, 2012 5:18 pm

Saurian Tail wrote:Reposted from Fruh's "Rectal Thermometers" (!!!) thread ...



viewtopic.php?f=8&t=34356
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:56 pm

Its pissing down everywhere at the moment too, isn't it.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby brainpanhandler » Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:01 am

Joe Hillshoist wrote:Its pissing down everywhere at the moment too, isn't it.




I assume you mean raining Joe, but australian colloquialisms have confused me more than a few times.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:25 am

Yeah, its code for "raining very heavily".
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:21 pm

US official: Higher ocean acidity is climate change's 'evil twin,' major threat to coral reefs
Article by: KRISTEN GELINEAU , Associated Press Updated: July 9, 2012 - 7:19 AM

SYDNEY - Oceans' rising acid levels have emerged as one of the biggest threats to coral reefs, acting as the "osteoporosis of the sea" and threatening everything from food security to tourism to livelihoods, the head of a U.S. scientific agency said Monday.

The speed by which the oceans' acid levels has risen caught scientists off-guard, with the problem now considered to be climate change's "equally evil twin," National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco told The Associated Press.

"We've got sort of the perfect storm of stressors from multiple places really hammering reefs around the world," said Lubchenco, who was in Australia to speak at the International Coral Reef Symposium in the northeast city of Cairns, near the Great Barrier Reef. "It's a very serious situation."

Oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing sea acidity. Scientists are worried about how that increase will affect sea life, particularly reefs, as higher acid levels make it tough for coral skeletons to form. Lubchenco likened ocean acidification to osteoporosis — a bone-thinning disease — because researchers are concerned it will lead to the deterioration of reefs.

Scientists initially assumed that the carbon dioxide absorbed by the water would be sufficiently diluted as the oceans mixed shallow and deeper waters. But most of the carbon dioxide and the subsequent chemical changes are being concentrated in surface waters, Lubchenco said.

"And those surface waters are changing much more rapidly than initial calculations have suggested," she said. "It's yet another reason to be very seriously concerned about the amount of carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere now and the additional amount we continue to put out."

Higher acidity levels are especially problematic for creatures such as oysters, because acid slows the growth of their shells. Experiments have shown other animals, such as clown fish, also suffer. In a study that mimicked the level of acidity scientists expect by the end of the century, clown fish began swimming toward predators, instead of away from them, because their sense of smell had been dulled.

"We're just beginning to uncover many of the ways in which the changing chemistry of oceans affects lots of behaviors," Lubchenco said. "So salmon not being able to find their natal streams because their sense of smell was impaired, that's a very real possibility."

The potential impact of all of this is huge, Lubchenco said. Coral reefs attract critical tourism dollars and protect fragile coastlines from threats such as tsunamis. Seafood is the primary source of protein for many people around the world. Already, some oyster farmers have blamed higher acidity levels for a decrease in stocks.

Some attempts to address the problem are already under way. Instruments that measure changing acid levels in the water have been installed in some areas to warn oyster growers when to stop the flow of ocean water to their hatcheries.

But that is only a short-term solution, Lubchenco said. The most critical element, she said, is reducing carbon emissions.

"The carbon dioxide that we have put in the atmosphere will continue to be absorbed by oceans for decades," she said. "It is going to be a long time before we can stabilize and turn around the direction of change simply because it's a big atmosphere and it's a big ocean."
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby NeonLX » Mon Jul 09, 2012 3:21 pm

Wish we would get some of that pissing down around here...we are now in a severe drought, according to the NWS. I doubt the farmers will pull much in the way of crops out of the fields this year (and the growing season began very early, with highs in the 90s during March)! Strangest weather I've seen in my six decades of watching it.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:07 pm

Warmest Half Year On Record For U.S. Mainland, NOAA 'State Of The Climate' Reports
The Huffington Post

Yes, it really is getting hot out there. A new report finds that the past 12 months have been the warmest on record for the mainland United States.
According to the NOAA National Climatic Data Center's "State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2012" report released Monday, the 12-month period from July 2011 to June 2012 was the warmest on record (since recordkeeping began in 1895) for the contiguous United States, with a nationally-averaged temperature of 56.0 degrees, 3.2 degrees higher than the long-term average.
According to the report, every single state in the contiguous U.S. except for Washington saw warmer-than-average temperatures during this time period. The period from January to June of this year also has been the warmest first half of a year on record for the U.S. mainland.
For a large portion of the contiguous U.S., these first six months were also drier than average. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that as of July 3, 56 percent of the contiguous U.S. is experiencing drought conditions. In June, wildfires burned over 1.3 million acres, the second most on record for the month.
As for that brutally hot June? More than 170 all-time warm temperature records were broken or tied last month.
Not all states were feeling the heat: the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast experienced some cooler-than-average conditions, but the Southeast still saw record-high temperatures near the end of the month.
For 13 consecutive months, temperatures ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time on record. As NOAA points out, "The odds of this occurring randomly is 1 in 1,594,323."
The report comes on the heels of growing awareness that the increase in heat waves, wildfires, droughts and some other weather extremes the U.S. is experiencing may indicate what climate change holds in store for the future.
"It's hard to pinpoint climate change as the driving factor, but it appears that it is playing a role," National Climatic Data Center scientist Jake Crouch told Reuters of the long-term warming trend. "What's going on for 2012 is exactly what we would expect from climate change."
Seth Borenstein recently wrote for the Associated Press that according to climate scientists, recent U.S. weather reflects what many experts predicted would come with climate change. "In the future you would expect larger, longer more intense heat waves and we've seen that in the last few summers," said NOAA Climate Monitoring chief Derek Arndt.
And as Princeton professor Michael Oppenheimer declared on a press call, "What we are seeing is a window into what global warming really looks like."
Recent reports suggest it's going to get a lot worse. Climate change not only has been tied to weather extremes, but also linked to rising sea levels. A study released in late June by the National Research Council found that much of California can expect a sea level rise of six inches by 2030, while a report by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) government scientists found that rates of sea level rise in a "hotspot" along the U.S. Atlantic Coast are increasing about three to four times more than the global average. A study published in Nature Climate Change last month found that human activities have played a large role in global ocean warming.
The West is on fire, dozens are dead from the most recent heat wave, and the mainland U.S. has just felt its warmest 12 months on record. Welcome to the future?
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby 82_28 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:26 pm

We had the first prolonged lightning storm in Seattle last night in the 13 years I've lived here. Thunderstorms of the midwest variety simply do not happen here -- ever (for the most part) this side of the Cascades. You can get a good convergence zone lightning STRIKE. But not a storm.

And you know what? I wanna say it was to the day too! WTF?

Image

BTW, the above image is current and was taken last night and yeah, that's the Volcano of Rainier as it were. . .

James Clark is likely the envy of many photographers around the region who were trying to capture Sunday night's thunderstorms.

Clark was up on an evening ski trip with his girlfriend on the Camp Muir snow field on Mt. Rainier when they saw a thunderstorm brewing in the distance. They went back to their truck as the storm drew closer.

"I had my camera in my truck and I began shooting the storm in the distance," he said. "Little did I know that there was an even bigger system heading directly over us."

As the lightning bolts danced across the sky, he said he had a thought: "How cool would it be if the lightning struck right behind Mt. Rainier?"

"Much to my surprise the storm passed directly over us and the mountain as we sat in my truck at Paradise. The skies were blinding at times and the thunder that followed incredibly loud," Clark said.

He says he aimed his camera towards the mountain and just hoped that the strike would come.

"There had been little streaks around the mountain but nothing too spectacular," Clark said. "Just as we were getting ready to go as we thought the storm was dying, the incredible strike that I had hoped for happened and I was fortunate enough to have pressed the shutter when I had."

He says they were in shock that they got the photo. He said he's filmed lightning before, but never anything like this.

"It was an amazing experience being up there during such and incredible showing by Mother Nature," he said.

Indeed, it was!


http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/s ... 45395.html

Also, the last few days I've been telling people there's smoke in the air. Everybody's all "nahhh" because it's impossible the Olympics are on fire (yet). When the sun sets the hue is unmistakably orange and the sunset itself is a deep red. Well, lo and behold. Asia and Russia are on fucking fire which the news has told us nothing about. Even the semi-famous meteorologist, Cliff Mass had to dig a little deeper.

Image

Image

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/07/a ... erica.html
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Luther Blissett » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:58 pm

Holy shit, good find.

There exists a lot more metallic particulate matter in the atmosphere now from pollution, which is causing more frequent, widespread, and common electrical storms.
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Re: Anthropogenic climate change poll

Postby Iamwhomiam » Mon Jul 09, 2012 10:17 pm

^^^^
Luther, do you have a reference for that or are you simply sharing your opinion?
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