outbreak of new Ebola strain

[8bitagent]

Another ebola victim in the US? I worry it may discourage nurses, doctors and hospital staff from performing their jobs or tending to respiratory illnesss patients as the panic spreads.

It takes 21 days for symptoms to show right? And Duncan checked in a few days before October...worrisome to think a small cluster of people who came in contact with will show signs of infection.

But perspective....the H1N1 Swine Flu of 2009 killed 284,000 according to the CDC and health organizations. 284,000. I can't see ebola death toll anywhere near that. AND THAT was airborne.

[Twyla LaSarc]

Apparently nurse #2 was on a plane right before she was admitted for ebola.

CDC is asking all 132 passengers on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 from CLE to DFW on 10/13 to call 1-800-CDC-INFO: http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/ ... ation.html
— CDC (@CDCgov) October 15, 2014

[seemslikeadream]

she boarded the plane with a temp of 99.5




Report: Ebola nurses in Dallas wore no special protective gear for two days

[Belligerent Savant]

.
http://gawker.com/the-cdc-gave-nurse-wi ... 1646912786

Amber Vinson, the second Dallas nurse to be diagnosed with Ebola, reportedly had permission from the Centers for Disease Control to fly on a commercial flight from Cleveland to Dallas—even though she reported having a fever.

CNN and CBS both report that Vinson called the CDC "several times" before her flight Monday and complained of a 99.5 degree fever. But according to CBS, they told her she could fly because her temperature was under the 100.4 "high risk" level.

Vinson was hospitalized Tuesday and formally diagnosed Wednesday. She was exposed to the virus while treating Thomas Eric Duncan, and is the second Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital nurse involved in the case to test positive.

CDC director Thomas Frieden later acknowledged that Vinson—who had extensive contact with Duncan—should not have been allowed to board a commercial aircraft.

The CDC says the aircraft Vinson traveled on has been taken out of service—but not before flying to Cleveland, Fort Lauderdale, and Atlanta.

Vinson is reportedly being moved to Emory University Hospital, which has successfully treated two other Ebola patients. The move was also motivated, at least in part, according to CNN, to prevent a walkout at the Dallas hospital.

[82_28]

This seems like a good site with a lot of links.

http://ebolahoax.com/

Also, this one where I found that above link:

http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2014/ ... -epidemic/

I don't buy shit when it comes down to it. However, it does jog my memory of this Spielbergian masterpiece:

[seemslikeadream]

from UrbanSurvival

Economic Disaster Due Soon
Posted on October 16, 2014 by George Ure
Turns out that the second nurse to come down with Ebola did indeed contact CDC before flying and was below a threshold set by the agencies.

While some of my colleagues have criticized me for being so hard on CDC from the outset with headlines like “CDC Dallas Screw-Up?” back before the MSM really ramped up, a quarter century of news judgment is showing its value. Unfortunately, our projects in September that we’d pass one million cases in January will also likely be right, as well.

And that could be very bad for politics and the economy.

Already we have seen stories about how the Obama administration – which has delayed the revelation of its “Executive Reconquista” program until after elections – now seems equally bent on burying the seriousness of Ebola until after elections as well.

Already, though, two countries, St.Lucia and Colombia, have announced travel bans from West Africa.

The Centers for Disease Confusion, meantime, is continuing to react to the spiraling situation, spending too much time on politics and not enough on action. Adding close healthcare workers to no-fly lists seems like a no-brainer. But to the Washington Cartel, it’s just another one of the obvious steps that is being fumbled.

Unfortunately, however, the problem is not limited to the United States. We are hearing reports that our “Grow food of die” mantra is coming ever-closer to fruition as we spread before you the story of how the UN is becoming concerned that Ebola could fuel a world-wide food shortage.

It would be nice if such events were to follow sequentially and logically, but the odds continue to grow that they will not.

Economics – particularly the long wave variety we follow around here – has long demonstrated that what fips a decent recession into a full-on Depression is a drought and falling food supplies.

It’s what fueled – in part – the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

And here are the first two points of this morning’s report:

1. Food supplies could be much sketchier than anyone realizers when Ebola and other pandemic diseases begin to munch of supplies at the same time markets are failing. You understand, I hope, that financial markets are where (in commodity markets) food producers of the convenient goods in the grocery store, lock in their supplies and prices.

We’re already seeing the large dislocations propagate in the commodity markets as Oil is down to the $80 range, and if things continue much longer (a year or two) that might mean prices down into the $40 range. For now, the Saudis are still looking like they might come out winners (along with the US) in an effort to drop prices.

The sand in the Vaseline, though, is that oil prices coming down 20% quickly means that other prices will be deflating as well, and once established, the vicious cycle is harder to break than the virtuous cycle.

And, as the markets resume their downward spiral at the open this morning (looking for another 100+_ point downer in the Dow) we see that spiraling deflation may end up killing more people than Ebola.

2. Given the unexpected way complex systems can operate when a single variable gets outside the normally bounded range, we can see markets crashing right around on schedule – November 10 is the hot date to watch. 55-days after the market high. Investors might be called psychotic-logical in repeating past patterns; they do so with considerable regularity.

So we can “line ‘em up” this morning as a sequence of disease disaster, leading to governmental disasters, leading to pandemic disaster, leading to food disaster. We ought to see financial disaster as a plug-in right after the governmental disaster app begins to run.

Now that official government news agencies are spreading the word about how the odds of a major outbreak are still very, very low, we recall for you once again what you should be doing when government says “Don’t worry.”

You ought to be scared shitless.

Future futures market is set to open the Dow down 200. Remember who said “1,740” on the S&P? Robin Landry…and people scoffed.

Remember, his long term call is still for a Dow under 1,000. But just not today. We still are on track to really crash in November around the 10th. Think of today as additional foreplay

[coffin_dodger]

^ that piece from Urban Survival just isn't quite grim enough - we really do need Zombies (the fast, aggressive kind - like in 28 days later) as well.
If some LabFiend could rustle up a Rage-type virus, that'll be just dandy. Thanks.

[stefano]

Bystanders read headlines saying 'Ebola 1: USA 0' at the Daily Talk, a street side chalkboard newspaper, in Monrovia October 16, 2014.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

"Ebola Attacks Creator"

Leaves little doubt what the Liberians think of the origins of this current strain...

[seemslikeadream]

OCTOBER 16, 2014
Some Fear Ebola Outbreak Could Make Nation Turn to Science
BY ANDY BOROWITZ


CREDIT PHOTOGRAPH BY WILLIAM THOMAS CAIN/GETTY
NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—There is a deep-seated fear among some Americans that an Ebola outbreak could make the country turn to science.

In interviews conducted across the nation, leading anti-science activists expressed their concern that the American people, wracked with anxiety over the possible spread of the virus, might desperately look to science to save the day.


“It’s a very human reaction,” said Harland Dorrinson, a prominent anti-science activist from Springfield, Missouri. “If you put them under enough stress, perfectly rational people will panic and start believing in science.”

Additionally, he worries about a “slippery slope” situation, “in which a belief in science leads to a belief in math, which in turn fosters a dangerous dependence on facts.”

At the end of the day, though, Dorrinson hopes that such a doomsday scenario will not come to pass. “Time and time again through history, Americans have been exposed to science and refused to accept it,” he said. “I pray that this time will be no different.”

[seemslikeadream]

Ebola: Impound a Whole Cruise Ship?
Posted on October 17, 2014 by George Ure
One of our sources called last night to tip us off that a cruise ship would be docking in Galveston on the 19th and that on that cruise ship was a lab worker who had worked with the samples from Ebola Patient Zero up in Dallas.

Now that two healthcare workers in the hospital had come down with symptoms, my source told me, there was consideration being given to sending a helicopter out to bring the exposed lab worker back for closer medical scrutiny.

“Our problem, “ said the source who is a government official, “Is that we don’t want to be the ones responsible for letting 2,000 people who have been exposed off the ship in Galveston Sunday morning.”

As a result, look for high-stake government discussions today and into the weekend on how to best deal with the ship.

While we didn’t put this up as a headline last night (pending second sourcing) that came overnight when ABC and the NY Times reported on the case. The Time’s “Health Worker Who May Have Had Contact With Ebola Is on a Cruise Ship.” provides a few additional details.

So does this early morning press release from the State Department:

As part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s detailed contact trace investigation conducted in response to the first Ebola case in Dallas, it was discovered that an employee of Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital had departed the United States via a commercial cruise ship on October 12 from Galveston, Texas. The employee did not have direct contact with the since deceased Ebola patient, but may have had contact with clinical specimens collected from him. The individual was out of the country before being notified of CDC’s updated requirements for active monitoring. At the time the hospital employee left the country, CDC was requiring only self-monitoring.

The employee has been self-monitoring, including daily temperature checks, since October 6, and has not had a fever or demonstrated any symptoms of illness. It has been 19 days since the passenger may have processed the since deceased patient’s fluid samples. The cruise line has actively supported CDC’s efforts to speak with the individual, whom the cruise ship’s medical doctor has monitored and confirmed was in good health. Following this examination, the hospital employee and traveling partner have voluntarily remained isolated in a cabin. We are working with the cruise line to safely bring them back to the United States out of an abundance of caution

There are only three cruise ships due to dock in Galveston on the 19th and the Washington Post mentions Carnival by name in its headline. USA Today names the Carnival Magic.

So, as of this morning, there are three main aspects of Ebola to be watching as we head into the weekend:

1. Will local government officials move to prevent the cruise ship from unloading on schedule come Sunday morning? As our unnamed government source told me last night “I don’t want to be the [redacted] that turns 2,000 people loose, if they have been exposed…”

Yes, a tough call indeed, although I think it would be totally cool for Carnival to simply lay on double provisions for the Magic and turn the cruise into a 21-day event and let the people onboard log some additional R&R.

2. The next problem to consider is whether the widely promoted 21-day window is enough. There’s a report out this week on the Natural News site – which often has good healthcare content – that the incubation period (in a small percentage of cases, admittedly) may be as long as 41-days.

Medical sources tell us the highest period of communicability is when the host has reached high levels of the virus and is actively “shedding” but if the onset can be so long, we may have other cases still incubating out of the Dallas incident.

3. Last, but not least, keep an eye on economic impacts and lawsuits on this.

For example, does Frontier airlines have any recourse to CDC if they gave the Dallas nurse the OK to fly because she was subcritical? A good lawyer ought to be able to build a 7 or 8-figure argument that CDC actions may have damaged their prospects. Or, might other airline groups be eying a drop in forward revenue and be looking to legal departments?

It would be predictable.

And similarly, what will happen to the poor lab tech? Will we – in coming months as this case shakes out – see lawsuits coming out of the woodwork for lost revenue?

Our back of the envelope math figures about a 60% chance of two more cases coming to light between now and Tuesday morning. But in the meantime, the condition of the lab tech who went on a cruise will be important to watch, as will government response at the local level down in Galveston.

Organizationally, on the federal side, CDC is an Agency under the Director of Health and Human Services. As Wikipedia notes “The President of the United States appoints the director of the CDC and the appointment does not require Senate confirmation. The director serves at the pleasure of the President and may be fired at any time. Sixteen directors have served the CDC or its predecessor agencies.”

So if local government does act to block the ship from unloading when it returns to port, it becomes a potential legal issue between FedGov and LocalGov as to who will prevail on a matter of local public health.

For now, the lab tech (at our last check) seemed to be symptom free. But 2,000 people? That’s a whole bunch of potential to be playing with. And we wish our confidential source good luck in sorting out the delicate balance as the matter of local control of quarantine could be on the front page as early as this afternoon.

[Twyla LaSarc]

Next thing we'll be hearing of a case who went to Disneyland over the damn weekend.

[Col. Quisp]

Actually, that Frontier Airline plane that Vinson was on, landed in Orlando at some point after she was on it. So, your prediction is not outside the realm of possibility. I was going to go to Orlando one day next week to visit a friend but I might just skip it.

[jingofever]

Diary - Paul Farmer.

Paul Farmer is a professor of global health at Harvard, an infectious disease physician at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and a co-founder of Partners in Health.

I have just returned from Liberia with a group of physicians and health activists. We are heading back in a few days. The country is in the midst of the largest ever epidemic of Ebola haemorrhagic fever...

Outside the capital, paved roads are as scarce as electricity: in 2013, it was estimated that less than 1 per cent of Liberia was electrified. As Sirleaf recently pointed out, the Dallas Cowboys football stadium consumes more energy each year than the whole of Liberia. It is very difficult to take care of critically ill patients in the dark; fluid resuscitation depends on being able to place and replace intravenous lines.

Even without a specific antiviral therapy, the treatment for hypovolaemic shock – which occurs when there isn’t enough blood for the heart to pump through the body and is the end result of many infections caused by bacteria and some caused by haemorrhagic viruses – is aggressive fluid resuscitation. For those able to take fluids by mouth, shock can often be forestalled by oral rehydration salts given by the litre. Patients who are vomiting or delirious are treated with intravenous fluids; haemorrhagic symptoms are treated with blood products. Any emergency room in the US or Europe can offer such care, and can also treat patients in isolation wards.

Both nurses and doctors are scarce in the regions most heavily affected by Ebola. Even before the current crisis killed many of Liberia’s health professionals, there were fewer than fifty doctors working in the public health system in a country of more than four million people, most of whom live far from the capital. That’s one physician per 100,000 population, compared to 240 per 100,000 in the United States or 670 in Cuba. Properly equipped hospitals are even scarcer than staff, and this is true across the regions most affected by Ebola. Also scarce is personal protective equipment (PPE): gowns, gloves, masks, face shields etc. In Liberia there isn’t the staff, the stuff or the space to stop infections transmitted through bodily fluids, including blood, urine, breast milk, sweat, semen, vomit and diarrhoea. Ebola virus is shed during clinical illness and after death: it remains viable and infectious long after its hosts have breathed their last. Preparing the dead for burial has turned hundreds of mourners into Ebola victims.

But the fact is that weak health systems, not unprecedented virulence or a previously unknown mode of transmission, are to blame for Ebola’s rapid spread. Weak health systems are also to blame for the high case-fatality rates in the current pandemic, which is caused by the Zaire strain of the virus. The obverse of this fact – and it is a fact – is the welcome news that the spread of the disease can be stopped by linking better infection control (to protect the uninfected) to improved clinical care (to save the afflicted). An Ebola diagnosis need not be a death sentence. Here’s my assertion as an infectious disease specialist: if patients are promptly diagnosed and receive aggressive supportive care – including fluid resuscitation, electrolyte replacement and blood products – the great majority, as many as 90 per cent, should survive.

[stillrobertpaulsen]

10/20/2014

GOP: We're Not Scientists Except When We Are

Problem:
Republicans are glad to tell you that either the evidence is inconclusive or that they are too dumb to understand the science when it comes to climate change, so they think it's wrong to act like it's a crisis and refuse to do anything to slow or halt it. However, they will go bugnuts crazy and try to cause panic when it comes to the science around the spread of Ebola, even when they have it wrong.

Hypothesis:
Playing to the craven cowardice and blunt ignorance of the general public, Republicans are happy to act like scientists and are using Ebola as a wedge issue for this year's elections with no regard to the facts (also known as "acting like Republicans").

Evidence:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on why we shouldn't do anything about climate change: "I'm not a scientist. I'm interested in protecting Kentucky's economy."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on why we should take strict measures to prevent the spread of Ebola: ""I'm not an expert on this, but it strikes me that it would be a good idea to discontinue flights into the United States from that part of the world." (A day before he had said, "I think we ought to listen to what the CDC thinks they need either in terms of financing or certainly they'll decide the procedures for travel and all the rest. I think we need to follow the advice of the experts who know how to fight scourges like this.")

Speaker of the House John Boehner on why he is against President Obama on policies to slow climate change: "Listen, I’m not qualified to debate the science over climate change."

Speaker of the House John Boehner on action to halt Ebola: "A temporary ban on travel to the United States from countries afflicted with the virus is something that the president should absolutely consider along with any other appropriate actions as doubts about the security of our air travel systems grow."

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal on why he doesn't want to say how much human activity contributes to climate change: "I’d leave it to the scientists to decide how much, what it means, and what the consequences are...Let the scientists debate and figure that out."

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal on why we should act preemptively to stop Ebola's spread: "It's pretty clear they refused to take common sense steps and call for the ban of these flights...That's been something I've been calling on for quite some time now. This is just common sense. Why in the world wouldn't we do this?"

Representative Paul Ryan on whether humans cause climate change: "I don't know the answer to that question. I don't think science does, either."

Representative Paul Ryan on how we should react to Ebola: "We’re learning a lot about how it’s spread but the question is ‘How can a person just jump on a plane and get here without a quarantine period of 21 days, which I believe is recommended."

This list could continue with Senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, with Governors Rick Perry and Rick Scott, with more members of the GOP House caucus than you could care to count.

Conclusion:
More people in the United States are scared about Ebola than climate change when climate change affects everyone and Ebola affects, at most, a handful of Americans. Republicans pretend not to know science, but they are unafraid of spreading lies and pretending to know it when it suits their purposes, even if it ultimately causes more harm than good.

And the majority of Americans buy into it and lose their shit when Ebola will never cause them to do so.