Peak Oil? Maybe.

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Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby Hugo Farnsworth » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:55 pm

Maybe we are not running out of oil as soon as is commonly portrayed.

For a background, i have been supplying acquisition systems and software in the oil well drilling business for over 25 years, so i am pretty familiar with the engineering and the art. I also have many friends in the business in low places. :P Seriously, i do have friends well placed in the drilling business and if i find out anymore, i will let the forum know.

During the oil glut of the 80's, I had heard this rumor from a schoolmate's father who worked as a welder on the TAP, as well as others in the drilling sector.

What is claimed is nothing less than the fantastic--that this field's potential is nearly equal to or greater than the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia. A friend with whom i had discussed this stated this was not possible, given the discrepancy in geographical size. I pointed out that the producing formations on the North Slope are similar in nature to Cantarell* field in Mexico, which is comprised of rubble or detritus. In other words, the pore spaces in the reservoir rock are much, much larger, and with far greater permeability, which greatly increases the amount that can be recovered as well as the in situ volume. Also, more than one producing formation blankets nearly all potential fields in the NPRA, so the oil is "stacked". In short, it's geologically possible.

Since the great GoogleBot could pick up on this thread, and possibly add it to the topic search collection, causing Jeff grief with hits on the forum, i will use a convention that should keep this mum to the GGG (Great God Google). A word bracketed in asterisks is spelled backwards, as in *siht*. Sheesh, i wish there was a word processor tool to do this. This seems paranoid, but Digg had 47K hits on this a couple of weeks ago.

If you search youtube for *yesdniL smailliW*, you should find the presentation. It's long and boring. He waves his book around--a lot. And an online version of his book. It's short and boring. First impression is loon. So i pulled up Google Earth and looked for *lluG dnalsI*. Well it was not on the North Slope, but on the Pacific (south) coast of Alaska, a bird sanctuary in Cook Inlet. Now there is oil in Cook Inlet, but it's well developed, and certainly would have shown up on the radar by now. Well, i thought, case closed.

But former Senator Chance's foreward to his book nagged me. Then the search engine showed a mention of this topic in a book about the Flying Tigers by *oeJ rennerB*.

Further map searches on Google, Google Earth revealed nothing, but in the center of Prudhoe Bay is a small island, unnamed on these maps. This had me intrigued. I could find no indication of it on maps from the state of Alaska--everything pointed to the island in Cook Inlet. Finally, on a 12-year old TerraServer map, i hit paydirt (yes, it's a pun). There it was, right where *smailliW* claimed it to be. Looking at a development map (show wells, roads, and flowlines) of the North Slope field from the state of Alaska showed a very curious thing. Prudhoe is now heavily developed, except in this area.

So there are three possibilities:

1. It was tested, but turned out to be like Mukluk, a dud.
2. It has been capped and is a well-kept secret. I find this hard to swallow. Oil companies jealously guard secrets about things like this, but petro geologists love to brag.
3. It is commercial, but not nearly as big as claimed. If development requires arctic ocean drilling, which sucks, the developer will put it off until fiscally attractive.

*The origin of the Cantarell field is fascinating. According the geologists, the reservoir rock is rubble created by the asteroid that killed off the dinosaurs.
Without traversing the edges, the center is unknowable.
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Postby brainpanhandler » Mon Dec 24, 2007 1:01 pm

Hugo wrote:Finally, on a 12-year old TerraServer map, i hit paydirt (yes, it's a pun).


I am surprised you did not also note the pun below.


Hugo wrote:2. It has been capped and is a well-kept secret. I find this hard to swallow. Oil companies jealously guard secrets about things like this, but petro geologists love to brag.


If you think option 2 is unlikely then why do you start out by saying,

Maybe we are not running out of oil as soon as is commonly portrayed.


I will be interested to read anything else you dig up. :wink:
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Postby Hugo Farnsworth » Mon Dec 24, 2007 3:20 pm

Well, i happun to believe that case 2 is still possible for these reasons:

Consider that TAP is running near capacity and is in bad shape, thanks to BP's :P cost-cutting on maintenance. When the North Slope was fully developed and TAP was in good shape, TAP was running full-tilt.

ALL of the gas being produced is pumped back into the reservoirs on the North Slope. There are no gas pipeline projects because it would involve running it through Canada--a very expensive proposition.

Announcing the find would drive down the price of oil, increasing demand, even though it would not be available on the market for a very long time.

As it is, the Ghana offshore discovery is one of the principal reasons for it's recent decline in price.
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Postby chiggerbit » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:37 pm

...the reservoir rock is rubble created by the asteroid...


The possibility that many oil reservoirs are located near meteor impact sites was discussed on this board a long time ago.
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Postby chiggerbit » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:41 pm

Found it. What do you think, Hugo? Is there anything to it?

http://rigorousintuition.ca/board/viewt ... 20&start=0
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Postby Et in Arcadia ego » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:51 pm

hah! That was a good thread, chiggerbit.

:D
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Postby chiggerbit » Wed Dec 26, 2007 6:59 pm

Heh, remember the good ole days when we could go totally off-topic, et?

Sorry, Hugo, if you feel that this is ot. If so, I will delete it.
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Postby Hugo Farnsworth » Thu Dec 27, 2007 12:11 pm

No problem with thread-jacking, chigger. This thread was sinking from lack of interest anyway. :)

The GOM has been heavily doodlebugged. Heh, how's that industry jargon? GOM=Gulf of Mexico, doodlebugging is seismic surveying.

If there are any offshore fields left to find in the GOM, they have probably been found--at least seismically. The rest of the story is in the test drilling. The story you cited about the Jack well is a good example of cost vs price. 7000 ft of water and 20000 ft of rock to drill is pricey. Production is so expensive, the major oil companies form consortia to deal with amortizing the costs.

I agree with JD about abiotic vs biotic. It doesnt matter. Taking the long view, ALL petroleum reservoirs are renewable. Just shut the wells in for 10,000 to 30,000 years and the reservoir will be like new.

Quite a few magical things have to occur for a petroleum reservoir to happen. First, you need the stuff cooked just right in the source rock, then it usually migrates upwards and collects into a reservoir rock. The reservoir rock has to be "capped", that is, a rock on top that is not porous, so it doesnt escape. The reservoir rock has to be porous and permeable enough for a wellbore to produce at commercial rates. Most reservoirs are sandstones, but the Ghawar field in Arabia is an oolitic limestone; some of the best fields in Iran are limestone reefs. The ideal reservoir would be a bed of gravel--like the North Slope and the Cantarell. I, and many others in the business, are amazed that it has happened on planet Earth as much as it has.

Just guessing here, but it's my belief that the country that has the greatest possibilities of new finds is the former USSR.

The oil drum has a good article on the Jack test, and the LTGOM potential (the Wilcox is the parent rock for nearly all of the oil and gas found in southern Louisiana and the GOM).

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/8/11274/83638
Last edited by Hugo Farnsworth on Thu Dec 27, 2007 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Brentos » Thu Dec 27, 2007 5:47 pm

Thanks for the info Hugo.
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby Sounder » Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:14 pm

The cost for a barrel of crude went down to .10 cents today. Stuff has not yet even begun to get serious.
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby alloneword » Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:32 pm

How low can you go?

The price on the futures contract for West Texas crude that is due to expire Tuesday fell into negative territory -- minus $37.63 a barrel. That’s right, sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Edit: A reasonably good explanation of what happened, why and what it means: https://twitter.com/RogerDiwan/status/1 ... 5291374592
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby Elvis » Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:48 pm

alloneword » Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:32 pm wrote:How low can you go?

The price on the futures contract for West Texas crude that is due to expire Tuesday fell into negative territory -- minus $37.63 a barrel. That’s right, sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe


I saw a suggestion that the Federal Reserve should start buying the surplus oil. (But where would they put it?)
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby alloneword » Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:07 pm

Can they print supertankers?
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby DrEvil » Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:10 pm

Elvis » Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:48 pm wrote:
alloneword » Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:32 pm wrote:How low can you go?

The price on the futures contract for West Texas crude that is due to expire Tuesday fell into negative territory -- minus $37.63 a barrel. That’s right, sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe


I saw a suggestion that the Federal Reserve should start buying the surplus oil. (But where would they put it?)


Gulf of Mexico.
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Re: Peak Oil? Maybe.

Postby norton ash » Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:12 pm

The Grand Canyon's just sittin' there, doing nothing productive.
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