MacCruiskeen wrote:Bloody hell.
It's worth noting that the link leads not to some obscure fringe website but to
The Guardian.
This is weird and worrying, coming hard on the heels of suddenly-respectful interviews and articles with and about Michael Ruppert in both the NYT and the WSJ.
Aye, it seems weird to me too McC. Difficult to say if this is a drip feed approach, or whether it is becoming impossible to keep the dirty little secret much longer. My hunch is there is just too much information on the subject for it to be kept under wraps.
I rarely post anywhere these days, largely because the evidence is there for everyone to see. In fact, I think the IEA has previously admitted PO: AFAIK there was an article on Energy Bulletin about the admission.
Western economies are up the creek, especially those of the UK & US, both of which grew massively on the back of a credit boom. The credit generated can only be paid back by additional economic activity. Additional economic activity can only take place through sucking in more energy: without energy our economic system, which is growth-based, cannot generate additional money. An increase in ‘real’ money supply can only come about through increased lending. Money is lent into existence. (The quantitative easing trick is inconsistent with how real economies work. It is a one-off holding measure that allowed governments to temporarily stave off the inevitable by trying to inject additional liquidity into their respective economies. In any case, the additional ‘new’ money has not found its way into the real economy, at least not in the UK. The standard measures of money within the UK economy, do not show an increase commensurate with the volume of new money created by the Bank of England AFAIK.
Given the crucial nature of energy, and other scarce resources, it is inevitable that nations will do whatever they can to secure those resources. China has just secured the rights to the largest undeveloped copper mine in the world. It is in Afghanistan and China beat off bids by western and Russian companies. China is supplying the Sri Lankan government with military aid, and more, in return for being allowed to build a big naval base there. The base is needed to allow Chinese warships to patrol the Indian Ocean to safeguard the oil supplies that are coming from...Saudi Arabia. This has not pleased India and might create further tensions.
China is quietly dumping the US$ and Chinese citizens have been advised to put at least 5% of their savings into precious metals. Given that the yuan is likely to remain a strong currency, it is less likely that this is a hedge against inflation. Currency inflation is likely to wreck the US$, not the yuan. I suspect this might be an attempt to prompt an increase in gold prices, as a means of hastening investor flight from the US$. So the US$ will possibly tank, in which case we all catch cold and all that. Think of the amount of US$ held world wide, for example.
In short, the balance of global power is moving towards China, Russia and other SCO nations.
And here’s the rub: any nascent economic recovery is going to push prices up again. At the same time as oilfields become economically viable again (prices need to be at least $80/barrel to make exploration/development viable) the price at the consumer end rises. Difficult to see how an already fragile economy can sustain even small increases in overheads, brought about by an increased oil price. In fact, I think the demand destruction has caused economic damage that is structural and which would be difficult to repair quickly, even if there was enough energy to fuel a recovery. Manufacturing plant will have been sold off and some premises too.
Sadly, we are so close to the events of the economic collapse it's impossible to step back and see it for what it is: collapse. In any case, 'collapse' implies a single event. It's better to think of it as a process, a series of increasingly worse economic performances, that only become recognisable as 'collapse' once the process is complete. By 'complete' I mean shortages of goods, failure to maintain infrastructure etc. Even then, there will be variations as wealthier people can insulate themselves from the collapse longer than those of us who aren't as well off. We are already seeing this process at a macro level, as poorer nations go to the wall first. The same phenomenon is likely to play out within individual nations, but with specific demographic groups faring better than other. Until no-one is able to protect themselves.
One thing is certain: economic/commercial collapse is well under way. Currency collapse will be the next leg down.
On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather.
John Perry Barlow - A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace