From: Andy
Subject: RE: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Gorby did not have a VVP as a straight jacket….
Best regards,
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Begin forwarded message:
From:
Subject: Re: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Medvedev is a lethal dummy. Words have meanings as we all know. A pompous air head who runs his mouth spewing like a parrot whatever Obama tells him to repeat spells possible unintended consequences, like an attack on Iran! Its in RF neighborhood the dumb fool -- "Intentional" U.S. spillover forty five miles across and onto RF territory or via U.S.sphere of influence RF ex Soviet border states?. -- Recall U.S, "W" Your are either with us or against us.".got a number of so-called allies to sign up to assist the U.S. "invasion" of Iraq that "W" knew had 'no' WMD, Navy, Air Force, subs,carriers, tanks, etc. you get the picture. U.S."Shock and Awe" was like shooting fish in a barrel. U.S got the chance to "live test" all their new lethal war toys along with the old. -- Sandra
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Begin forwarded message:
From: Tony
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
The S-300 isn't a silver bullet by itself but it would significantly
improve the already existing Iranian AD network, which BTW is fairly
good. They've got a number of Russian & Chinese origin SAM systems on top of their Western systems (inherited from the Shah). All of them have gone through various domestic upgrades. A recent assesment of Iranian Air-Defense below:
Reassessing Iran's Air Defences
Ongoing disagreements between the Western alliance and Iran over that nation's illicit nuclear materials program have fuelled considerable speculation in recent weeks over the possibility of Israeli or US led air strikes against Iran's nuclear industrial base. Should this outcome arise, attacking aircraft will have to overcome a disparate but rapidly modernising Integrated Air Defence System (IADS)....
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-170710-1.htmlIn regards to Israel going in alone, I go with the view that it
doesn't have the capability for a sustained air campaign (which is
what would be needed) over such distances. It would take virtually the entire Israeli Airforce to mount a large scale operation (not just
bombers but tankers, support aircraft, fighter cover and so on). I
don't think they could keep up that sort of tempo for more than a
couple of days. Everybody forgets that the Iranians have around
150-200 fighter aircraft....not as technologically advanced as the
Israeli ones but they still have to be dealt with on top of the ground
based SAMs.
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Begin forwarded message:
From: Alex
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Tony
I agree. Looking at the notorious S-300 deal, one would think it is
the only factor deterring Israel. Eg. this (or many other sources)
http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=48786 says that the sale is not forbidden (2) S-300 can be replaced with something else. While we owe many problems to Gorbachov, he was, probably, a good man (i.e. not only a businessman in the government position

- he just was not exactly the one for the job he tried to do. But Medevedev - I don't know. But I remember time when nobody believed Putin was worth anything....
The Iranians will need tests to develop meaningful nuclear
capabilities & that alone may trigger bad reaction. I read somewhere
they participated in N Korean tests, though.
Cheers
Igor,
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Begin forwarded message:
From: "Tony
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
One more thing....
IMO, Medvedev is another Gorbachev....in other words a DUMMY. So his comments re: Iran (and a host of other topics) should be taken in that context.
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Begin forwarded message:
From: "Tony
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Igor,
China also voted for the sanctions. I think Russia and China decided
that all that could be done with a difficult situation was to support
a set of watered down sanctions. But Russia has gone further by
refusing to honour the S-300 deal which is a mistake and for which it will pay a significant price down the line (financial and political).
If you've noticed, Iran is criticising Russia loudly but hasn't said
anything against China.
An attack on Iran won't be a walk in the park which is why nothing has happened so far. Israel probably can't do it by itself for practical
reasons (distance, not enough aircraft for a sustainable attack and
Iranian reprisals). And the US wouldn't want to start another war with the Iraq and Afghanistan operations ongoing.
Personally I think Iran will develop the capability to quickly produce
nuclear weapons but won't actually produce any. That way they will
achieve most of their political goals but won't cross any red lines.
There are credible reports that Iran was involved in the North Korean tests and already has the necessary data without itself conducting a test.
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Begin forwarded message:
From: Alex
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
..there was an interesting detail in the Falgenhauer's text:
"The cancelling of the S-300 sale <..> **has financially hurt** influential officials and caused anger.
Friedmanists' wildest dream - a (in this case - the Russian)
Government as a nuclear-armed **private** business enterprise...
(the state police and courts it seems are already running in this
mode)
Some time ago I posted easy-going general speculations on other (than private business interests) ways the Russian government could be manipulated to do what US wants:
http://unpublished-notes.blogspot.com/2 ... -sits.htmlCheers
Igor,
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Begin forwarded message:
From: "Sergei,
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Cassandra, it's tough for Russia to maintain any resemblance of
independent foreign policy since Russian elites keep their kids and
money in Western banks.
Sergei
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From: Cassandra
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
@SJ
Unfortunately your url does not directly contradict stuff i know:
(1) The russians have plans to sell petroleum products to iran. There
is no obligation or hard intention to do so. On the contrary consider
the behaviour of
Lukoil: They pulled out.
(2) Medvedev continues to waffle.: His latest statetement on Iran was
completely uncalled for and gratuitous. Meantime RT tried to dispell
the effects by haveing other spokesmen make statements in the opposite
direction.
@Andy
(i) Some days ago i read that the american and israeli military were
in Azerbaijan.: Cosidering various airfields as to suitability of
stationing of planes for the campaign.
(ii) The PR dissimulation campaign is in full swing. Consider:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG03Ak01.html or
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LG01Ak01.html If you google both of these fellows you will find that they are
probably paid rumor mongers --- dissimulators.
It looks as if the most likely path of attack will come through the
Caucasus. Can russia countenance an attakck from Azerbaijan?
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Begin forwarded message:
From: "Andy
Subject: RE: Russian Policies in Iran
There is NO CHANCE IN THE WORLD that Russia would attack Iran in the present
domestic situation.
Best regards,
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Begin forwarded message:
Subject: Re: Russian Policies in Iran
Nothing new in this article except except a defense analyst impression from connecting "dots of events." The BBC and ilk are known for "floating" untruths and half-truths on behalf of the US. Does anyone remember UK PM blatantly false Iraqi intelligence given to former US President George W. Bush?. The new PM has shown [first US-Obama visit] he won't be bullied by Obama, US Congressional BP/Libya investigation "invitation" US press, etc. The new PM made clear during the US press conference sanding next to Obama they needed to ask Libya and Scotland regarding the questions they were asking him and not to confuse BP and the two events. He literally set the tone! No US-lapdog [hopefully]. Sandra
This totally dispelles the BBC article
Read the entire article at:
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia. ... ns.999.htm.
had trouble attaching the "active" link may or may not work.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia_ ... s_999.html****************************************
Begin forwarded message:
From: Cassandra
Subject: Russian Policies in Iran
Came across this piece by Falgehauer On Iran:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-10684110 Usually i don't pay much attention to what this fellow says.
But given Medvedev's latest comments i am beginning to ask myself to what extend the present admin would countenance an attack on Iran. Who are the people in the israeli lobby in Moscow? The Iranian? This is not simply a weapons story. Is Hahn's latest post on a coup from above meanungful? Ideas/