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Stu Ostro:
Fortunately the rapid drop in pressure last evening did not translate into increased wind speeds, in fact Irene has been officially lowered to a Cat 2 … but Irene is still a large and powerful hurricane, and a rare event for the East Coast.
Per the hurricanes below from the official list, 942 millibars, IF it were to maintain something comparable to that farther north, would be comparable to or lower than the great East Coast hurricanes of the mid-20th century at the time they reached the U.S. (There are many complexities with a hurricane’s intensity, much less each one’s impacts, but in general there’s a relationship between lower pressures and stronger hurricanes.)
Also, even though Irene’s pressure drop didn’t mean an increase in wind speed, the size of the wind field associated with the pressure gradient has increased even further. The estimated maximum diameter of tropical storm force winds is now equal to Katrina’s just before it made landfall, and almost as large as Ike’s. Irene’s hurricane-force wind diameter is presently not as large as Katrina’s and Ike’s though.
Jonathan Erdman (Meteorologist):
Irene's eyewall may look a little ragged this AM (despite its very low pressure: 942 mb). However, notice the bright red cloud tops spreading out well north of its center. This is the "pre-Irene" heavy rain already setting up just S of the NC coast. Guidance is consistent in a swath of 6"+ rainfall from eastern NC into New England with Irene. I'll post a model forecast rain graphic shortly to illustrate the potential.
82_28 wrote:I'm sorry Bruce and I so much mean, the very best of luck to you! Keep us posted. In thoughts and prayers and all that.
The media sure is ramping up on the fear though. Just heard: "Most powerful storm ever to hit the most populated area ever".
Good luck, amigo.
We're on the 16th floor, a half block from the Hudson, and I'm really most concerned about our windows getting blown in on us.
bks wrote:We're on the 16th floor, a half block from the Hudson, and I'm really most concerned about our windows getting blown in on us.
That sounds like reason enough to spend the storm elsewhere if possible. But how close to the NJ shore are your girlfriend's parents? Are they subject to the evacuation? Think I read all towns east of Rt. 9 are subject to it. I would think there will be a good deal of traffic heading away from the seashore just about anywhere along the coast so if you're going the other direction, all the best for a safe trip. Flashlights, extra water and dry goods, etc. etc.
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.
US may face 'weeks' wait for Irene response
Hurricane Irene approaching US East coast
© AFP/HO/NOAA Ho
AFP
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Top US emergency officials warned Friday that it could take weeks or possibly months to get relief to some areas in response to the incoming Hurricane Irene.
"We are anticipating it to be a huge geographical area with lots of people impacted," warned Gail McGovern, head of the American Red Cross, at a press conference in Washington.
"From the time perspective, this could take weeks, maybe months to be able to respond to," she told reporters alongside Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Craig Fugate, chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The US military has confirmed that up to 98,000 National Guard soldiers will be available if needed throughout the affected regions, as Irene on Friday barreled up the US eastern seaboard.
It is expected to slam into North Carolina's Atlantic coastline as a category 2 hurricane, starting early Saturday, before roiling northward, threatening US states from Delaware to Maine.
Some 65 million people live along the path that Irene will hit in the coming days.
Top relief and emergency officials meanwhile cautioned that residents even far inland, such as in the US capital Washington, should be prepared for days-long power outages and possible storm surges rushing up the waterways.
"You will not be able to get everything back on quickly. A lot of rain and flooding. Strong gusty winds. Again, those impacts, well away from the coast are going to extend in," Fugate said.
US authorities have readied tens of thousands of ready-meals to hand out to evacuees, with preparations being made for a million meals a day in the worst case scenario.
http://www.activistpost.com/2011/08/us- ... irene.html
NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered mandatory
evacuations for residents in low-lying coastal areas ahead of Hurricane Irene.
Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4
p.m.
The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents.
They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.
Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first.
Officials also ordered an unprecedented shutdown of the city's mass transit
system for Saturday in advance of the hurricane.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has never before halted its entire
system in advance of a storm, though the system was seriously hobbled by an
August 2007 rainstorm. The last planned shutdown of the entire transit system
was during a 2005 strike.
dbcooper41 wrote:http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/story/10050126/NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered mandatory
evacuations for residents in low-lying coastal areas ahead of Hurricane Irene.
Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4
p.m.
The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents.
They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.
Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first.
Officials also ordered an unprecedented shutdown of the city's mass transit
system for Saturday in advance of the hurricane.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has never before halted its entire
system in advance of a storm, though the system was seriously hobbled by an
August 2007 rainstorm. The last planned shutdown of the entire transit system
was during a 2005 strike.
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