Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Bruce Dazzling » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:00 am

Any of you NYCers planning on getting out of Dodge?

I'm in Tribeca (lower Manhattan), which is only a few feet above sea level.

My gal's parents live along the coast in NJ, and they're asking us to come to their house to ride out the storm, but we have a dog and a cat, and I'm not thrilled with the idea of shuttling them both around in our little car (a Mini).

On the other hand, if we stay and the storm is crazy, our little car may end up in the Atlantic Ocean.

Oh, and the Jersey shore is supposed to get hammered as well.

Ugh.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby 82_28 » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:07 am

I'm sorry Bruce and I so much mean, the very best of luck to you! Keep us posted. In thoughts and prayers and all that.

The media sure is ramping up on the fear though. Just heard: "Most powerful storm ever to hit the most populated area ever".

Good luck, amigo.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby bks » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:26 am

Seen this, Bruce?

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... -nyc-21686

also, from http://www.weather.com/weather/hurrican ... 2011-05-31

Stu Ostro:
Fortunately the rapid drop in pressure last evening did not translate into increased wind speeds, in fact Irene has been officially lowered to a Cat 2 … but Irene is still a large and powerful hurricane, and a rare event for the East Coast.

Per the hurricanes below from the official list, 942 millibars, IF it were to maintain something comparable to that farther north, would be comparable to or lower than the great East Coast hurricanes of the mid-20th century at the time they reached the U.S. (There are many complexities with a hurricane’s intensity, much less each one’s impacts, but in general there’s a relationship between lower pressures and stronger hurricanes.)

Also, even though Irene’s pressure drop didn’t mean an increase in wind speed, the size of the wind field associated with the pressure gradient has increased even further. The estimated maximum diameter of tropical storm force winds is now equal to Katrina’s just before it made landfall, and almost as large as Ike’s. Irene’s hurricane-force wind diameter is presently not as large as Katrina’s and Ike’s though.

Jonathan Erdman (Meteorologist):
Irene's eyewall may look a little ragged this AM (despite its very low pressure: 942 mb). However, notice the bright red cloud tops spreading out well north of its center. This is the "pre-Irene" heavy rain already setting up just S of the NC coast. Guidance is consistent in a swath of 6"+ rainfall from eastern NC into New England with Irene. I'll post a model forecast rain graphic shortly to illustrate the potential.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Bruce Dazzling » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:37 am

82_28 wrote:I'm sorry Bruce and I so much mean, the very best of luck to you! Keep us posted. In thoughts and prayers and all that.

The media sure is ramping up on the fear though. Just heard: "Most powerful storm ever to hit the most populated area ever".

Good luck, amigo.


Thanks, 82.

Yes, I saw that Weather Channel report, bks. We're on the 16th floor, a half block from the Hudson, and I'm really most concerned about our windows getting blown in on us. We plan to use painter's tape to keep them from shattering into tiny pieces if they do break, and we're also going to hang blankets in front of them.

Meanwhile, in the Department of WOO...

If, and I DO mean IF TPTB have the Dr. Evil-like ability to steer hurricanes, putting the financial district out of business for a few weeks, and destroying financial records would be a heck of a way to speed up the ongoing, slow-motion collapse.

Again though, I am stressing the IF.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby bks » Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:47 am

We're on the 16th floor, a half block from the Hudson, and I'm really most concerned about our windows getting blown in on us.


That sounds like reason enough to spend the storm elsewhere if possible. But how close to the NJ shore are your girlfriend's parents? Are they subject to the evacuation? Think I read all towns east of Rt. 9 are subject to it. I would think there will be a good deal of traffic heading away from the seashore just about anywhere along the coast so if you're going the other direction, all the best for a safe trip. Flashlights, extra water and dry goods, etc. etc.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby 82_28 » Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:14 am

Are y'all gonna get charged for your increased text messages? Authorities recommend, it was just reported, to text and not call as it uses LESS BANDWIDTH.

Um, duh. Why do they charge me an extra $30 or whatever a month for unlimited texting? What a fucking scam. But scam or no, they recommend texting as to not tie up the networks.

If anything we need a worldwide class action lawsuit to get all of our bandwidth money back once we all survive this storm.

Good luck again. . .
There is no me. There is no you. There is all. There is no you. There is no me. And that is all. A profound acceptance of an enormous pageantry. A haunting certainty that the unifying principle of this universe is love. -- Propagandhi
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Bruce Dazzling » Fri Aug 26, 2011 10:22 am

bks wrote:
We're on the 16th floor, a half block from the Hudson, and I'm really most concerned about our windows getting blown in on us.


That sounds like reason enough to spend the storm elsewhere if possible. But how close to the NJ shore are your girlfriend's parents? Are they subject to the evacuation? Think I read all towns east of Rt. 9 are subject to it. I would think there will be a good deal of traffic heading away from the seashore just about anywhere along the coast so if you're going the other direction, all the best for a safe trip. Flashlights, extra water and dry goods, etc. etc.


Her parents live in Lanoka Harbor, which is just East of Rt. 9, and they're right on Barnegat Bay. The Township is "urging voluntary evacuation," so I'm not sure that that's a great destination for us.

My dad lives in South Eastern PA, but he also has a dog and a cat (to go along with ours), and lives in a small apartment. Even though the cats have never met and will probably hate each other, I'm thinking that if we bolt, we'll end up there.

If we ride it out in the city, I'm thinking we might stop at Eastern Mt. Sports tonight and try to pick up a cheap kayak to facilitate travel through Mad Max Manhattan.

Mad Max Manhattan!

:dancingfrog:
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Bruce Dazzling » Fri Aug 26, 2011 11:07 am

"Arrogance is experiential and environmental in cause. Human experience can make and unmake arrogance. Ours is about to get unmade."

~ Joe Bageant R.I.P.

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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby crikkett » Fri Aug 26, 2011 11:22 am

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1902
Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.

Much more at link
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Project Willow » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:41 pm

Good luck folks. Hope the storm continues to weaken.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby eyeno » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:22 pm

US may face 'weeks' wait for Irene response
Hurricane Irene approaching US East coast
© AFP/HO/NOAA Ho
AFP

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Top US emergency officials warned Friday that it could take weeks or possibly months to get relief to some areas in response to the incoming Hurricane Irene.

"We are anticipating it to be a huge geographical area with lots of people impacted," warned Gail McGovern, head of the American Red Cross, at a press conference in Washington.

"From the time perspective, this could take weeks, maybe months to be able to respond to," she told reporters alongside Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Craig Fugate, chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).


The US military has confirmed that up to 98,000 National Guard soldiers will be available if needed throughout the affected regions, as Irene on Friday barreled up the US eastern seaboard.

It is expected to slam into North Carolina's Atlantic coastline as a category 2 hurricane, starting early Saturday, before roiling northward, threatening US states from Delaware to Maine.

Some 65 million people live along the path that Irene will hit in the coming days.

Top relief and emergency officials meanwhile cautioned that residents even far inland, such as in the US capital Washington, should be prepared for days-long power outages and possible storm surges rushing up the waterways.

"You will not be able to get everything back on quickly. A lot of rain and flooding. Strong gusty winds. Again, those impacts, well away from the coast are going to extend in," Fugate said.

US authorities have readied tens of thousands of ready-meals to hand out to evacuees, with preparations being made for a million meals a day in the worst case scenario.

http://www.activistpost.com/2011/08/us- ... irene.html
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby dbcooper41 » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:35 pm

http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/story/10050126/
NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered mandatory
evacuations
for residents in low-lying coastal areas ahead of Hurricane Irene.
Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4
p.m.
The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents.
They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.
Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first.
Officials also ordered an unprecedented shutdown of the city's mass transit
system for Saturday in advance of the hurricane.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has never before halted its entire
system in advance of a storm, though the system was seriously hobbled by an
August 2007 rainstorm. The last planned shutdown of the entire transit system
was during a 2005 strike.
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby Bruce Dazzling » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:44 pm

dbcooper41 wrote:http://www.wral.com/news/national_world/national/story/10050126/
NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered mandatory
evacuations
for residents in low-lying coastal areas ahead of Hurricane Irene.
Bloomberg said at a briefing Friday that emergency shelters will be opened at 4
p.m.
The low-lying areas are scattered across the city and are home to about 270,000 residents.
They include parts of Battery Park City, Coney Island and the Rockaways.
Bloomberg calls the mandatory evacuations a first.
Officials also ordered an unprecedented shutdown of the city's mass transit
system for Saturday in advance of the hurricane.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority has never before halted its entire
system in advance of a storm, though the system was seriously hobbled by an
August 2007 rainstorm. The last planned shutdown of the entire transit system
was during a 2005 strike.




Yeah, it's looking more and more like I'm in the mandatory evacuation zone.

I really, REALLY don't want to have to make a three hour drive with a dog and a cat in a Mini Cooper.

Fuck!
"Arrogance is experiential and environmental in cause. Human experience can make and unmake arrogance. Ours is about to get unmade."

~ Joe Bageant R.I.P.

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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby 82_28 » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:48 pm

Oh man, Bruce. This is getting weird. Hang in there. Keep us posted.
There is no me. There is no you. There is all. There is no you. There is no me. And that is all. A profound acceptance of an enormous pageantry. A haunting certainty that the unifying principle of this universe is love. -- Propagandhi
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Re: Hurricane Could Strike World's Most Important Area

Postby ninakat » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:53 pm

Bruce, are there any other options you'd consider? I think you should leave in the best way possible (even if that means additional expense). Just my paranoid opinion.

Here's a PDF of the evacuation zones for NYC (click on image):

Image
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