Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scenario

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Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scenario

Postby Jeff » Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:23 pm

Biggest jump ever seen in global warming gases

AP By SETH BORENSTEIN - AP Science Writer | AP – 1 hr 15 mins ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — The global output of heat-trapping carbon dioxide jumped by the biggest amount on record, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated, a sign of how feeble the world's efforts are at slowing man-made global warming.

The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.

...

The world pumped about 564 million more tons (512 million metric tons) of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009. That's an increase of 6 percent. That amount of extra pollution eclipses the individual emissions of all but three countries — China, the United States and India, the world's top producers of greenhouse gases.

It is a "monster" increase that is unheard of, said Gregg Marland, a professor of geology at Appalachian State University, who has helped calculate Department of Energy figures in the past.

...

In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued its last large report on global warming, it used different scenarios for carbon dioxide pollution and said the rate of warming would be based on the rate of pollution. Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. Those forecast global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees.

Even though global warming skeptics have attacked the climate change panel as being too alarmist, scientists have generally found their predictions too conservative, Reilly said. He said his university worked on emissions scenarios, their likelihood, and what would happen. The IPCC's worst case scenario was only about in the middle of what MIT calculated are likely scenarios.

...


http://news.yahoo.com/biggest-jump-ever ... 55211.html
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:34 pm

Well, thank god for occupy wall street, then. Right? RIGHT?

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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Simulist » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:25 pm

Boden said the latest figures put global emissions higher than the worst case projections from the climate panel. Those forecast global temperatures rising between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century with the best estimate at 7.5 degrees.

A global temperature rise between 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, with the best estimate at a 7.5 degree rise, sounds unsurvivable for our species.

Does anyone have any concrete information on that?

(Because I'd really, really like to be wrong.)
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Laodicean » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:30 pm

Derrick Jensen is a prophet if this OP is the case. Been saying it for years. We're too late...
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Laodicean » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:36 pm

The Keystone XL MUST be STOPPED. And the use of Petroleum.
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Jeff » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:38 pm

Simulist wrote:Does anyone have any concrete information on that?

(Because I'd really, really like to be wrong.)


Well, there is the "doomsday scenario," from good ol' three years ago, of six degrees:

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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Simulist » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:43 pm

Thanks, Jeff.

Well, if 6 degrees is "nothing less than a global wipe-out" and "the doomsday scenario," then 7.5 degrees is certain death.

Therefore, industrial civilization MUST be ended. Now.
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Hammer of Los » Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:49 pm

simulist wrote:Well, if 6 degrees is "nothing less than a global wipe-out" and "the doomsday scenario," then 7.5 degrees is certain death.

Therefore, industrial civilization MUST be ended. Now.


I really hope they don't try and start a really hot war with china.

The NWO might be trying to collapse our industries quite successfully, but China and India continue apace.

Thank heavens I'm not in charge of the planet!

I'll just carry on living as small as I can and loving my children, I think.
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Jeff » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:04 pm

Simulist wrote:Therefore, industrial civilization MUST be ended. Now.


Seems just about the best place to link to this, from Deep Green Resistance (Jensen, Lierre Keith, Aric McBay are its most prominent figures), addressed to the Occupy Movement:

Occupy the Machine – Stop the 1%, Literally
Our Bodies Will Be Our Demand

Open Letter to the Occupy Movement


The Occupy Movement is beautiful. We support it and though we are small, we are participating all over the country. We invite all occupiers to read, give feedback, and if you feel moved to do so to present this at a General Assembly or committee meeting near you.

We invite you to imagine, as many of you already probably have, if thousands of people occupied local refineries, roads, ports, oil and mining extraction sites, etc. – in other words, imagine if people occupied the locations where the 1% destroy the land and exploit humans, all for profit.

Imagine their stock prices falling, their cash flow being interrupted, their ability to get loans and/or expand “production” – a euphemism for converting living beings into dead products – finished.

Imagine if we were able to stop them, stop the 1%. Literally. Not symbolically.
 We think it can be done if we all do it together. We think it can be done if we all figure out how to do it and if we are willing to make the necessary sacrifices, together.

...

Many local affinity groups could conceivably attempt to occupy multiple targets. Strategically, however, it will likely be more successful if occupiers focus on one or two major targets – such as Tar Sands refineries, fracking, coal plants etc. The idea is that if we can successfully shut down a few major targets all over the country, one or two targets per region, people more broadly will see the power they all have and then more targets can be taken on.

To be clear, what we’re envisioning here would mean a massive escalation. It would mean hundreds of thousands of people all over the country leaving behind school, jobs, family, and comfort, to really go for it. To not settle for less than victory. To leave behind symbolic action for good.

...

We’d ask all those people to start preparing right away, have their stuff packed, tents, food, money, and a plan for how they can participate and be able to stay for as long as it takes (we’d encourage people to ask their community to support them so they could go for as long it takes) so that as soon as the local Occupy groups would announce targets, perhaps through text messages and other means, those people would be ready to go to the targets at a moment’s notice. This kind of tactic has been used successfully in the past to get lots of people to a location for a blockade while keeping the cops on the run and always one step behind. If we can get enough people to the different locations before the state gets there, we have a chance at holding it until even more people can come.

...

6) Escalation: A Promise – Too often when we don’t succeed, we don’t escalate. Too often when they escalate their attacks against the planet and all living beings, we don’t escalate. (Have you noticed that all of our victories are temporary and defensive, and all our losses permanent and offensive?) No more. If our actions do not succeed, we promise to escalate. We will regroup, reorganize, and go for more than before, risking more and holding nothing back. We promise they will lose more money and we will get stronger and fight harder.

This is our chance. We can use our energy and love to stop the 1% who are literally killing us, stealing from us, and destroying the only home we have. Our bodies will be our demands. And with our bodies, we will stop the 1% together, permanently.

These are just thoughts. Not a plan. But we hope it’s the start of a conversation about how we can do some version of this. The 1% don’t really own or control anything. They do what they do because they have guns and we allow them to. But that can all change.

With love and resistance,

Deep Green Resistance Movement
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Simulist » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:13 pm

Jeff wrote:
Simulist wrote:Therefore, industrial civilization MUST be ended. Now.


Seems just about the best place to link to this, from Deep Green Resistance (Jensen, Lierre Keith, Aric McBay are its most prominent figures), addressed to the Occupy Movement:

Occupy the Machine – Stop the 1%, Literally
Our Bodies Will Be Our Demand

Open Letter to the Occupy Movement


The Occupy Movement is beautiful. We support it and though we are small, we are participating all over the country. We invite all occupiers to read, give feedback, and if you feel moved to do so to present this at a General Assembly or committee meeting near you.

We invite you to imagine, as many of you already probably have, if thousands of people occupied local refineries, roads, ports, oil and mining extraction sites, etc. – in other words, imagine if people occupied the locations where the 1% destroy the land and exploit humans, all for profit.

Imagine their stock prices falling, their cash flow being interrupted, their ability to get loans and/or expand “production” – a euphemism for converting living beings into dead products – finished.

Imagine if we were able to stop them, stop the 1%. Literally. Not symbolically.
 We think it can be done if we all do it together. We think it can be done if we all figure out how to do it and if we are willing to make the necessary sacrifices, together.

...

Many local affinity groups could conceivably attempt to occupy multiple targets. Strategically, however, it will likely be more successful if occupiers focus on one or two major targets – such as Tar Sands refineries, fracking, coal plants etc. The idea is that if we can successfully shut down a few major targets all over the country, one or two targets per region, people more broadly will see the power they all have and then more targets can be taken on.

To be clear, what we’re envisioning here would mean a massive escalation. It would mean hundreds of thousands of people all over the country leaving behind school, jobs, family, and comfort, to really go for it. To not settle for less than victory. To leave behind symbolic action for good.

...

We’d ask all those people to start preparing right away, have their stuff packed, tents, food, money, and a plan for how they can participate and be able to stay for as long as it takes (we’d encourage people to ask their community to support them so they could go for as long it takes) so that as soon as the local Occupy groups would announce targets, perhaps through text messages and other means, those people would be ready to go to the targets at a moment’s notice. This kind of tactic has been used successfully in the past to get lots of people to a location for a blockade while keeping the cops on the run and always one step behind. If we can get enough people to the different locations before the state gets there, we have a chance at holding it until even more people can come.

...

6) Escalation: A Promise – Too often when we don’t succeed, we don’t escalate. Too often when they escalate their attacks against the planet and all living beings, we don’t escalate. (Have you noticed that all of our victories are temporary and defensive, and all our losses permanent and offensive?) No more. If our actions do not succeed, we promise to escalate. We will regroup, reorganize, and go for more than before, risking more and holding nothing back. We promise they will lose more money and we will get stronger and fight harder.

This is our chance. We can use our energy and love to stop the 1% who are literally killing us, stealing from us, and destroying the only home we have. Our bodies will be our demands. And with our bodies, we will stop the 1% together, permanently.

These are just thoughts. Not a plan. But we hope it’s the start of a conversation about how we can do some version of this. The 1% don’t really own or control anything. They do what they do because they have guns and we allow them to. But that can all change.

With love and resistance,

Deep Green Resistance Movement

Thank you for that, from the bottom of my heart.
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Jeff » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:17 pm

I'm reminded, too, of this thread from January: Science stunner: On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter

Presumably, with this latest information, we're already exceeding January's "current emissions path."
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Simulist » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:38 pm

I'm a little ashamed to admit that I didn't know who Derrick Jensen is, but I'm grateful to Laodicean and to Jeff for introducing me to him now.

Here are some things that Derrick writes that make a hell of a lot of sense to me about the actions that have become necessary and how best to approach them:

How can I do something?

Q: How can I do something to help bring down civilization and not just throw away my life in a useless act?

Derrick Jensen: There are three answers. The philosophical answer is that we can’t know the future. We can never know whether some action will be useful. We should pick what we think are the most effective actions, but that still doesn’t guarantee any given act will succeed. What we can know is that if this culture continues in the direction it’s headed, it will get where it’s headed, which is the murder of the planet. There are already casualties, and they’re called the salmon. They’re called the sharks. They’re called the black terns. They’re called migratory songbirds. They’re called oceans, rivers. They’re called indigenous people. They’re called the poor. They’re called subsistence farmers. They’re called women.

The second, historical answer is about the way resistance movements work. You lose and you lose and you lose until you win. You get your head cracked, get your head cracked, get your head cracked, and then you win. You can’t know when you start how many times you have to get your head cracked before you win. But the struggle builds on struggle. It has to start somewhere and it has to gain momentum. That happens through organizing, it happens through actions. And it happens through victories. One of the best recruiting tools is some sort of victory. And you can’t have a victory unless you try.

And now the pragmatic: we are horribly outnumbered and we do not have the luxury to throw away our lives. How we can be most effective? We have to be smart. Choose targets carefully, both for strategic value and safety. And we have to organize. A lone person’s chance of sparking a larger movement is much lower than that of a group of organized people.

Whatever actions a person takes (and this is true in all areas of life) need to count. Many of the actions being taken right now are essentially acts of vandalism, as opposed to acts of active sabotage that will slow the movement of the machine. So choose. How can you make your actions (and your life) have the most significance in terms of stopping the perpetration of atrocity?

All those who begin to act against the powers of any repressive state need to recognize that their lives will change. They need to take that decision very seriously. Some of the people captured under the Green Scare knew what they were getting into, and some of them made the decision more lightly. The latter were the people who turned very quickly when they were arrested. One person turned within five seconds of getting into the police car. That person probably didn’t seriously consider the ramifications of his actions before he began. The Black Panthers knew when they started the struggle that they would either end up dead or in prison.

Finally, we have to always keep what we’re fighting for in sight. We are fighting for life on the planet. And the truth is, the planet’s life is worth more than you. It’s worth more than me. It is the source of all life. That doesn’t alter the fact that we should be smart. We need to be very strategic. We need to be tactical. And we need to act.

Did John Brown throw away his life? On one hand, you could say yes. His project ultimately failed. But, on the other hand, you could say that it set up much greater things. Did Nat Turner throw away his life? Did members of the revolt at Sobibor throw away their lives? On one hand, you could say yes. On the other hand, you could say that they did what was absolutely right and necessary. And something we must always remember is that those who participated in the Warsaw Ghetto uprising had a higher rate of survival than those who went along. When the whole planet is being destroyed, your inaction will not save you. We must choose the larger life. We must choose to do what is right to protect the planet. It is our only home.

Brilliant stuff.

And there's a lot more brilliant stuff by Derrick Jensen on his website and in his FAQ here.
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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Laodicean » Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:54 pm

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Re: Monster jump in greenhouse gases exceeds worst-case scen

Postby Nordic » Thu Nov 03, 2011 10:53 pm

we need to not only radically cut emissions but plant a lot of trees. and shrubs. and anything else that photosynthesizes.

and quit cutting down rainforests completely.
"He who wounds the ecosphere literally wounds God" -- Philip K. Dick
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