Good counterpoints here, and something that approaches my own understanding of the issue in 2021. I'd reproduce the text but there are a number of graphics that are germane to their case. That case is not altogether convincing but it is representative of the kind of rigor that should be brought to examining actionable intelligence.
Via: http://struttingleopard.blogspot.com/20 ... ually.htmlI think a lot what we, as spectators, take to be important data points in these cases are actually unrelated -- but rendered suspicious by sheer proximity and obvious coverups. (Like the hunt for Jonathan Pollard's collaborators running through The Finders case.)
1. The five men, if they were involved in a covert operation, were possibly the most incompetent secret agents one could assemble.
2. Unless Giraldi or anyone else has some countervailing evidence, the FBI probably concluded that there was no evidence against them beyond immigration, drug possession, or tax avoidance charges.
My quibbles:
* Note that the author hinges at least half of their argument on a geospatial analysis digging into the location these photos were taken. This is then used to dismiss the argument that their behavior and photography were actually related to staking out the site of an imminent attack. While there is much to question there, looming over this is the fact that only 14 of 76 photographs were released. The author's hard work is appreciated but it would seem the most salient fact here is that no less than 62 of those photographs were considered too hot for TV. That's 80% of the collection.
* Apparent incompetence, and inexplicably weird behavior in general, is a crucial part of "plausible deniability." Not only is that a fixture of intelligence work in general, it's also part of the track record of Israeli intelligence work in the United States, mostly notably the
"Art Student" flap of penetration testing. (A
template that works.)
* Along the same lines,
when spooks get caught, it is essential to contemplate the possibility that getting caught was their mission. Having decoy teams in place while you exfiltrate your actual teams is, again, long-standing best practice in the field.