Complex Systems Theorists: One Year Away From Global Riots

[Jeff]

We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say

12 Sep
By Brian Merchant / Motherboard

What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible, justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk to fight back are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any of the above. It’s hunger, plain and simple. If there’s a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it’s food becoming too scarce or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in Cambridge, and it makes sense.

In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest.

The MIT Technology Review explains how CSI’s model works: “The evidence comes from two sources. The first is data gathered by the United Nations that plots the price of food against time, the so-called food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN. The second is the date of riots around the world, whatever their cause.” Plot the data, and it looks like this:



Pretty simple. Black dots are the food prices, red lines are the riots. In other words, whenever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. CSI doesn’t claim that any breach of 210 immediately leads to riots, obviously; just that the probability that riots will erupt grows much greater. For billions of people around the world, food comprises up to 80% of routine expenses (for rich-world people like you and I, it’s like 15%). When prices jump, people can’t afford anything else; or even food itself. And if you can’t eat—or worse, your family can’t eat—you fight.

But how accurate is the model? An anecdote the researchers outline in the report offers us an idea. They write that “on December 13, 2010, we submitted a government report analyzing the repercussions of the global financial crises, and directly identifying the risk of social unrest and political instability due to food prices.” Four days later, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire as an act of protest in Tunisia. And we all know what happened after that.

...

And it’s only going to get worse and worse and worse. Because of climate change-exacerbated disasters like these, “the average price of staple foods such as maize could more than double in the next 20 years compared with 2010 trend prices,” a new report from Oxfam reveals. That report details how the poor will be even more vulnerable to climate change-induced food price shocks than previously thought. After all, we’ve “loaded the climate dice,” as NASA’s James Hansen likes to say, and the chances of such disasters rolling out are greater than ever.

This all goes to say that as long as climate change continues to advance—it seems that nothing can stop that now—and we maintain a global food system perennially subject to volatile price spikes and exploitation from speculators, without reform, our world will be an increasingly restive one. Hunger is coming, and so are the riots.

http://earthfirstnews.wordpress.com/201 ... rists-say/

[Nordic]

One ..... two ...... THREE!

Grab the popcorn. If you're one of them "Elite" types. Just hope your razor wire holds up.

[Hammer of Los]

...

Go learn Kung Fu.

Find a Master.

I ain't just watchin' the show.

I got a part ta play.

...

[Wombaticus Rex]

Their model is about as sophisticated as what Ehrlich was using to prove we would all starve to death by the 1980's. That doesn't even mean their conclusion is wrong, but it does mean that this information should be taken as seriously as Stanford's recent study on organic food. Junk science is junk science. The paper itself is interesting, but most of the coverage has, as per usual, grossly overstated the meaning and implications of the findings.

I mean, what's outlined in the Arxiv paper is barely a model, more of a napkin-math level brainstorm.

Recommended reading on a more robust system with a better track record - one of many, btw: http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/docUploaded/DT ... turion.pdf

[JackRiddler]

You know, the Romans could already look back on a couple of thousand years worth of the insight that unaffordable food prices cause the poor to riot.

[2012 Countdown]

Max Keiser has been going on about this. Complex systems analysis, overloaded, will collapse. He says anytime from now till April-May is his timeline.

[seemslikeadream]

"Arab Spring" - A Failed Framework & Blowback
Countdown to the 25th....will history rhyme? I am as sad as any American with the death of the US Ambassador to Libya this week. And even more so because this morning we are seeing huge angry crowds in Egypt which are threatening violence, again. Pardon me but "Warning, warning, collision imminent!"
What's at the root of the problem? As I see it one-dimensional thinking in the development of US foreign policy. You see, this was all pretty well laid out in general terms of what's ahead for the world (Balkanization) in the June 13 issue of Peoplenomics this year in a piece titled "What's Ahead in 'Thieves World.'"
The blind-spot of politicians (and political appointees) is that they fail to appreciate the size and scope of one faction of the PowersThatBe...the crime families which (as you should know) make gobs of money in smuggling, human trafficking, and drugs in the Middle East, South America, and yep, even our old friends in "The Brotherhood" - the Russian mob.
Let me bring you up to speed a bit with a quote from that June article:
"In a very real sense, the greater Balkanization of Europe would be accomplished rather neatly by using this intermediate step of the European Union to first break down specific national laws and barriers, and then deliberately bankrupting that structure quickly enough so that individual nations would have a difficult time reconstructing the former economy and law enforcement capability.
This would work neatly to the advantage of the drug cartels, which are in fact likely are a large chunk of the real-deal PTB: the world crime syndicate. This world crime syndicate likely works in other ways: such strategies as naked shorting it could be argued are ideal ways to launder money. Yep, likely why all the good investigative stories heading for prime time get spiked...sorry, you've been out-bid.
The breakdown of the international police organization (Interpol) might result from a creatively orchestrated disintegration of the European Union, which would then further the objectives and agendas of the world crime syndicate.
Naturally, since the foundational revenue streams of the global crime syndicate is cash-based, there’s an open question what direction paper money will follow. To be sure, an electronic version of loan-sharking works just as well as paper money (which paper money is in an inflation/devaluation model anyway) but what about money to buy drugs? Tough ones for the cartel side, but clearly cash is king, at least for now in that world.
At the same time, because the emergent world crime syndicate has likely structured close relations with radical elements of the Islamic faith, there would be payoffs for them as well, since we can see the outlines already of the West losing the strategic battles as the Project for the New American Century turns out to have been a very bad idea. By moving internal Islamist agendas forward in target countries the odds are extremely good that Islam will be reinvigorated, and because they're cut of the global crime syndicate could be substantial, they would be in a greatly enhanced financial position from which to prosecute further expansionism.
Now, this is only a framework for discussion and further research. However, it answers a number of critical questions: one of them is who are the powers that be – and that comes more clearly into focus and the seemingly "random" news events script neatly into the power-shared world. "

You can get a sense of what has happened:
The crime families/cartel had allowed Arab Spring to go forward to push non-US-aligned Islamic regimes into power. What we were sold as democratization has just bitten our ass.
At the same time, they likely made big money on the near (and still possible) collapse of Europe which has to potential to disassemble Interpol. Not to mention get back to the good old days of smuggling from their perspective. Uniform laws are a pain in the business model.
But now, with less US-leaning regimes in power, I expect we will see something like a great artwork unveiling, where we see that 15-years of wrong-headed foreign policy turns out to have been a horrible mistake promoted by one-dimensional thinkers who neglected the critical role of Narcodollars.
At the same time, however, the full-court press for "electronic money" has been underway on the US/West side, because international crime becomes a lot less profitable if every cent is tracked - and taxed. Might even be used as a way to link "terrorism" to private gold and silver ownership as things develop. "If you have money OUTSIDE our system you MUST be a terrorist..." right?
Sad as current headlines are, I'm afraid there is much more to come, as we're not involved strictly in an ideological war with militant Islam (versus runaway capitalism of the 1 percent). There's a second, third, and even fourth level to this chessboard: The Crime Cartel division of the PTB, the aikido/jujitsu move of which is using our own (misplaced desire for regime-change) against us. This was slick: PNAC did half the militant mullah's work! How? By moving "new" Islamic regimes forward, thus making the eventual extremist regime change all that much easier.
OH: And then at a fourth level, bleeding us dry in the process. Which gets us to...

Watching Oil for Clues........

[General Patton]

Their model is about as sophisticated as what Ehrlich was using to prove we would all starve to death by the 1980's. That doesn't even mean their conclusion is wrong, but it does mean that this information should be taken as seriously as Stanford's recent study on organic food. Junk science is junk science. The paper itself is interesting, but most of the coverage has, as per usual, grossly overstated the meaning and implications of the findings.

I mean, what's outlined in the Arxiv paper is barely a model, more of a napkin-math level brainstorm.

Recommended reading on a more robust system with a better track record - one of many, btw: http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/docUploaded/DT ... turion.pdf

Definitely agree.

Here is a simple model of the predation relationship between wolves and sheep over time, which doesn't take in data like winter-time versus summer-time predation, disease, food scarcity for the sheep or other important factors, which is still more technically complex than the food riot chart:





For something like riots, you would need to take in an extremely large and complex data set, how good is the police force at suppressing riots, what are the motivations of agitators (always varied), things like that, which is way beyond my level of expertise at the moment.

The value of the following the entire process, from having solid data to good analysis and synthesis protocol is very important.

And all of the implicit assumptions must be outlined, as well as the explicit ones built into the simulation itself.

Edit: The main problem with food in African countries has always been logistics. Their model does some focus on that area, so it should take into account logistical information in Africa, and how it is changing over time due to things like cellphones. Cellphones have been a huge game changer.

Edit 2: Also this example model is slightly different because it has clear patterns, that you wouldn't see in a truly complex system that introduces novelty. For that you would need to include rival predators, other food sources, things like that which would create something other than a repeating cycle. A complex system should have diverse agents who are connected, with interdependent relationships that adapt over time.

[elfismiles]

Surfing the SEAS Synth Environ Anal Sim
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=32452

[JackRiddler]

Surfing the SEAS Synth Environ Anal Sim
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/ ... =8&t=32452

Anal Sim? Is this SFW?

[MayDay]

I threatened to start this thread several weeks ago but I did'nt have the heart for it. I'm not exactly looking forward to the fallout. It doesn't take a Complex Systems Theorist to see what's around the bend at this point.

Their model is about as sophisticated as what Ehrlich was using to prove we would all starve to death by the 1980's. That doesn't even mean their conclusion is wrong, but it does mean that this information should be taken as seriously as Stanford's recent study on organic food. Junk science is junk science. The paper itself is interesting, but most of the coverage has, as per usual, grossly overstated the meaning and implications of the findings.

I mean, what's outlined in the Arxiv paper is barely a model, more of a napkin-math level brainstorm.

Recommended reading on a more robust system with a better track record - one of many, btw: http://www.ndu.edu/CTNSP/docUploaded/DT ... turion.pdf

My boss was listening to NPR the other day, and they did a short piece on the Stanford study on organic food. They introduced the piece by explaining that organic foods are not as good for you as you may think, and then said absolutely nothing for 5 infuriating minutes, other than "we just don't know what the long term benefits could be". Which is a far cry from how the topic was introduced. My boss and I were like, "wtf? did monsanto sponser that bs or what?" It was a great chance for me to bring up the fact that NPR has been selling out for a decade or more now. She of course responded that it's so much more balanced and in-depth than CNN and NBC, as if that somehow justifies allowing ones views to be influenced by inaccurate, controlled info.

[elpuma]

Reminds me of Terence McKenna's Timewave Zero Theory.

[General Patton]

Small variables can have big effects, or large ones can end up being of little relevance. So going with the correlation-implies-causation model doesn't always pan out, like just using one single variable spread across a large system. The up-close view of a system is different from the sum of it's parts. For instance, identical twins may be 60% cognitively similar, and end up with similar IQ's among other things, but when you examine them close you will notice they have different finger prints, retinal prints and other small differences. The other 40% can be discounted in the initial model, unless it is growing exponentially. Exponentially growing factors are always relevant.

The output you get isn't always intuitive, because we are biased to give excessive weight to certain types of risks and have an intuitively linear view of growth, among many other cognitive biases. So out of all of that chaos and variation, we get something that at the macro-level looks ordered.

[ninakat]

September 11, 2012 12:36 pm
As Global Food Prices Climb, So Does the Probability of Riots
Smithsonian.com


An interpretation of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

On Abraham Maslow’s ‘hierarchy of needs’ that spur human action, the most fundamental level are the “physiological needs”—things like hunger, thirst, sleep. So it’s no surprise that when the world is turned on its head and riots break out in the streets, one of the most common underlying factors seems to be the global price of food. As Motherboard says, describing a 2011 study, “If there’s a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it’s food becoming too scarce or too expensive.”

Comparing the food price index with the outbreak of riots during the past few years, Technology Review reports, scientists were able to find a stark link between food prices and instability. The threshold value for this weighted measure of the growth rate of food prices, they say, is 210. Motherboard:

[W]henever the UN’s food price index, which measures the monthly change in the price of a basket of food commodities, climbs above 210, the conditions ripen for social unrest around the world. CSI doesn’t claim that any breach of 210 immediately leads to riots, obviously; just that the probability that riots will erupt grows much greater.

At present, the food price index has sat at or above 210 for the past year, barring May and June, 2012, when the index was still above 200. One important aspect pushing these high food prices was the powerful drought that gripped the United States and drove crop production into the ground in many places.

According to oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf, next year may be even warmer than this year. An ever-present increase in global average temperatures will lead to an increase in the potential for droughts to occur, and with drought comes a dearth in crop production. And, with that, comes rising food prices and, potentially, riots.

[ninakat]

It was a great chance for me to bring up the fact that NPR has been selling out for a decade or more now. She of course responded that it's so much more balanced and in-depth than CNN and NBC, as if that somehow justifies allowing ones views to be influenced by inaccurate, controlled info.

Her response is almost more infuriating than the propaganda itself. It's the same kind of delusional thinking that people projected onto Obama, despite the preponderance of evidence that he was one of them. This is why I find the gullibility of liberals/progressives so disgusting. Actually, I'm less forgiving now -- I don't really see them as gullible anymore -- they're in serious denial because they're too fucking comfy and unwilling to deal with the responsibility of owning up to reality -- the prospect of hardship is just too much to bear. So, as it's turning out, they're becoming just as culpable as their corporate foes. The fact that National Propaganda Radio is now almost indistinguishable from Faux News escapes the delusional progressives, because NPR has been one of their cherished institutions. Apparently it always will be.