BOE: Quantifying Catastrophe … Now with CH4!!!
Bottom line – given the IPCC AR4 ECS and a gaussian distribution for fossil fuel consumption centered on an additional 6000 Gt CO2, we are quite likely going to see a return to a Miocene climate with global temps running about 4C warmer and CO2 near 500 PPM. If there is strong methane feedback, we may see a return to early Cenozoic conditions with warming over 6C and CO2 concentrations above 1000 PPM.
This leads to questions about decay rates. Does CO2 have an “effective” half life driven by ocean cycling? Biosphere? Geology? Will the resulting changes in albedo, glacial and ice sheet melting, and changes in ocean chemistry put an effective end to the Quaternary? Or will glacial cycles reassert themselves ending even this interglacial now known as the Anthropocene?
https://rhinohide.wordpress.com/2012/06 ... -with-ch4/
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