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MH17: rebels block access to part of site of crash as evidence against them grows
First OSCE investigators to the scene retreat after hour-long standoff with armed separatists who fired warning shots
Shaun Walker in Kiev, Harriet Salem in Grabovo, Dan Roberts in Washington and Philip Oltermann in Amsterdam
The Guardian, Friday 18 July 2014 13.26 EDT
A pro-Russia fighter holds up a toy found among the debris at the crash site of the Malaysia Airlines jet, where OSCE investigators were denied access. Photograph: Dmitry Lovetsky/AP
President Barack Obama threatened to "increase the costs" on Russia if Moscow fails to deescalate the situation in Ukraine, as US and other western officials said there was mounting evidence that a missile fired by Russia-backed separatists downed the Malaysian Airlines jet which crashed in eastern Ukraine on Thursday.
All sides have called for a thorough and impartial investigation into what caused the crash, which killed all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board MH17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. However, the first group of international investigators on the scene were involved in a tense standoff with the armed separatists who control the crash site at Grabovo.
A unit of heavily armed rebels blocked the 30-strong team from the OSCE, cordoning off a large part of the crash site. The inspectors retreated after an hour-long standoff, having been unable to gain access. They were sent on their way by warning shots fired by the rebel unit commander.
"We will keep coming back tomorrow and the next day and the next day," said spokesman Michael Bociurkiw. "Tomorrow will be a crunch day. There are a lot of experts from the Netherlands and Malaysia gathering in Kiev as well as relatives. The bodies are starting to bloat and decay. An expert team is clearly needed. There is a lot to be done in a short amount of time."
In Washington, Obama called for a full, impartial investigation and said the tragedy should cause people to "snap their heads together" and stop playing games in Ukraine. In veiled criticism of the lack of European support for US-led economic sanctions against Russia, Obama said the loss of so many European lives should serve as a "wake-up call" for Europe.
Obama said while it was too early to be completely sure who was responsible and what their motives were, the US was sure that a missile fired from within territory controlled by Russian separatists brought down the jet.
He stopped short of directly blaming Moscow for the tragedy, but said it was down to Russian president Vladimir Putin to end the violence that has plagued Ukraine for months.
"It is not possible for the separatists to function the way they're functioning, to have the equipment they have … without sophisticated equipment and training, and that is coming from Russia," said Obama. "If Mr Putin makes a decision that we are not going to allow heavy armaments and the flow of fighters into Ukraine … then it will stop."
Russia, however, did not appear eager to disown the rebel movement to which it has been publicly sympathetic and privately supplied logistical and military backing, or at least turned a blind eye to its provision across the Russia-Ukraine border.
Russia's ambassador to the UN, while not addressing the specific claim of how MH17 was shot down, said that Russia "fully blames Kiev" for all violence in the region. In Moscow, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed claims from Kiev that Russia was behind the attack, saying that he had "hardly heard a single true statement come from Kiev in the past few months".
Lavrov's deputy, Sergei Ryabkov accused the Americans of having made their minds up without studying the facts, and insisted that it was in fact the US who was to blame. Washington, said Ryabkov, was responsible for "stirring up political instability, provoking an anti-constitutional seizure of power and supporting anti-Russian politicians … The US should think about the consequences of its actions".
Russia's state-controlled media suggested that a Ukrainian jet or missile system had shot down the plane, with a source in Russia's defence ministry claiming that Moscow had picked up missile radar activity on Thursday coming from Ukrainian bases. Other more fanciful conspiracy theories were floated, including the idea that the attack was carried out by the Ukrainian army in error, thinking it was Putin's plane. Rebel websites suggested that the bodies discovered at the crash site were "long dead" and speculated the plane could have been MH370, which went missing earlier this year, hidden and then re-used to stage a "provocation".
While even Obama admitted that the US does not know exactly what happened, amid the ludicrous theories the circumstantial evidence did appear to point more and more to an accidental attack by separatists, who thought they were shooting at a Ukrainian military jet.
If the missile was fired by rebels, it is unclear if they obtained the launch system from Russia, or if it was seized from a Ukrainian army base. Video posted on YouTube claiming to show part of a Buk system being on the move towards the Russian border on Friday could not be verified. Ukraine's foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, however, insisted that recordings released by Ukraine's SBU security services on Thursday of separatist fighters admitting they had downed a passenger liner were "absolutely genuine".
Elsewhere in the east, the fighting between Kiev forces and separatists continued. There were reports that at least 20 civilians had been killed by shelling in the city of Luhansk.
The 298 people aboard MH17 came from nearly a dozen nations, with at least 189 of the dead Dutch citizens. A large number were heading to a conference on HIV/AIDS.
"Truly beautiful, inspiring, committed, smart and compassionate people have been brutally taken away from us," said Murdo Bijl, a Dutch AIDS advocate who knew many of those on board MH17. "The world and the AIDS field will miss these brilliant doctors, advocates, researchers and friends."
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, who on Thursday night had sounded caution about jumping to conclusions, by Friday afternoon too was calling for consequences: "Let us be clear: if it becomes clear that it was an attack, the perpetrators must be found and punished", the Dutch PM said at a press conference at the ministry of security and justice. "That is something the victims and those they leave behind are entitled to."
Yet overall the reaction to the tragedy in the Netherlands has been remarkable restrained. On Friday morning at 8am, passengers were queuing up to check into another Malaysian Airways flight bound for Kuala Lumpur. One couple in their 20s, who didn't want to give their names, said they felt "sad" about what had happened, and admitted they were a little bit scared about boarding their flight. But they were determined not to give up on their holiday, a trip around Indonesia and Sumatra.
Erik Elsenaar, an IT consultant waiting at Schiphol for his midday flight to Kuala Lumpur, told the Guardian he was feeling very calm: "This is something that never, never happens, and it's unlikely to happen again. It is a tragedy, but it doesn't look like the attack was either directed at Holland or Malaysia Airlines. You can see here that they've already doubled the security at check-in. They will probably triple the checks for bombs. It's definitely safer to travel now than it was to travel the day before yesterday."
There were also nine UK citizens among the dead. A British diplomat in Kiev said if any of the relatives of the nine UK citizens killed in the crash came to Ukraine, they would be given all assistance required, even as far as attempts to journey to the crash site, "within the limits of what is safe, possible and accessible".
A video-conference took place on Thursday evening between the separatists and the Ukrainian president's representative, former president Leonid Kuchma, which included mediation from the OSCE and the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, agreed that the separatists would grant access to the crash site for international investigators. However, Friday's stand-off with the OSCE shows that unfettered access could be tricky to achieve, and the logistics of issues such as retrieving and properly storing bodies, as well as sifting through the evidence, remain unclear.
8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:03 pm wrote:
Is there a history of issues with Malaysia 777 planes before this year?
JackRiddler » Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:42 am wrote:Is it possible to fake some electronic signature for a plane to make it look like a military flight, or to remotely take over the guidance system of a BuK missile?
Remember this incredible graphic: MH17 went right through the gap between the two shootdowns in the three days before, diverting (according to the flight route database provided by Zero Hedge via Morty) away from the much safer route it had been following.
High-tech spycraft tracked missile's path to Malaysia Airlines jet
http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow ... story.html
By Ralph Vartabedian, W.J. Hennigan
Spy specialty known as measurement and signature intelligence played role in Ukraine missile detection
US intelligence in Ukraine: 'They would have known exactly where it was launched, where it was headed'
Advanced U.S. satellites played a key role in the determination by intelligence officials that a surface-to-air missile shot down a Malaysian jetliner over Ukraine on Thursday.
The assessment was almost certainly based on a technical branch of spycraft known as measurement and signature intelligence, or MASINT, analysts said. The method detects, tracks and identifies a variety of electronic signatures, including radar.
The U.S. operates fleets of listening satellites and early warning satellites that could have identified the location of a missile launch site and its trajectory as it shot up to the 33,000-foot cruising altitude of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777.
The Pentagon would have detected the launch because of its heat signature, said Riki Ellison, founder and chairman of Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, a group that lobbies for missile defense spending.
The U.S. Air Force has satellites in high-Earth orbit that use infrared sensors to detect heat from missile and booster plumes against Earth's background. Called the Defense Support Program, the system provides early warning for intercontinental ballistic missile launches.
The satellites are sensitive enough to sense hot spots in forest fires, according to the Air Force.
U.S. radar installations and other assets in the region would assist in tracking any surface-to-air missile, which Ukrainian officials have said probably came from a Russian-made Buk system. The information would be relayed to U.S. European Command, headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany.
"They would have known exactly where it was launched, where it was headed, and the rate at which it was traveling," Ellison said.
Separately, the U.S. operates sensitive listening satellites that can capture a wide range of electronic emissions from foreign nations' defense systems, allowing analysts to determine the origin of the signals and the type weapon that was used.
For instance, the Buk missile uses a strong radar search and tracking system to find its targets and then helps guide a missile to the target. At some point in its flight, the missile begins to use its own radar system, emitting a unique signal.
The combination of unique signals over a period of seconds or minutes would allow a U.S. satellite to triangulate the point of launch and track the trajectory of the missile.
For more news on the Malaysia Airlines crash, follow @rvartabedian and @wjhenn on Twitter.
zangtang » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:38 pm wrote:FWIW - ITV2 just pulled the bond film 'Goldeneye' and replaced with rom-com pap 'couples retreat'......intuition tells me because of the Ukraine 777......cant remember specific plot points other than super-duper helicopter gets stolen by eastern/fall of ussr arms dealer.....cant recall false flag/ aircraft shootdown / financial meltdown in the flick.... - this from wikipedia :
SNIP
what in the film mirrors, or could be seen to mirror...what is happening, or is speculated to be happening right now ?
Wombaticus Rex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:15 pm wrote:8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:03 pm wrote:
Is there a history of issues with Malaysia 777 planes before this year?
Sir: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777 ... _accidents
Before 2013, the only fatality involving the twinjet occurred in a refueling fire at Denver International Airport on September 5, 2001, during which a ground worker sustained fatal burns.[206] The aircraft, operated by British Airways, suffered fire damage to the lower wing panels and engine housing; it was later repaired and returned to service.[206][207]
8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:13 pm wrote:Wombaticus Rex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:15 pm wrote:8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:03 pm wrote:
Is there a history of issues with Malaysia 777 planes before this year?
Sir: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777 ... _accidents
Thank you.Before 2013, the only fatality involving the twinjet occurred in a refueling fire at Denver International Airport on September 5, 2001, during which a ground worker sustained fatal burns.[206] The aircraft, operated by British Airways, suffered fire damage to the lower wing panels and engine housing; it was later repaired and returned to service.[206][207]
Curious...
82_28 » Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:18 pm wrote:8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 6:13 pm wrote:Wombaticus Rex » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:15 pm wrote:8bitagent » Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:03 pm wrote:
Is there a history of issues with Malaysia 777 planes before this year?
Sir: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777 ... _accidents
Thank you.Before 2013, the only fatality involving the twinjet occurred in a refueling fire at Denver International Airport on September 5, 2001, during which a ground worker sustained fatal burns.[206] The aircraft, operated by British Airways, suffered fire damage to the lower wing panels and engine housing; it was later repaired and returned to service.[206][207]
Curious...
Yes indeed, given the date! 6 days to go!
This plane used for MH17 had its first flight 17 years ago on July 17, 1997, and now is apparently shot down on July 17, 2014.
What about the Ukrainians?
Here the reality is dramatically different: almost all of the Ukrainian air defense equipment is hopelessly outdated, far in excess of its normal shelf life. The Ukie air defense systems have not trained with live firing for dacades. Unlike the Russian who use contracted professionals on all crucial levels, the Ukies are known to be using conscripts simply due to a lack of funds. To illustrate the bloodly mess the Ukie air defenses are, it is enough to recall here how gross incompetence, mismanagement and outdated equipment resulted in the downing of the Siberian Airlines civilian aircraft in 2001. Since then, things in the Ukie air defenses have only gotten much worse. Still, the Ukies did have an ATC which at the very least should have reported that a civilian airline had a flight plan which would follow the points XYZ. I just cannot imagine a Ukie officer giving the order to shoot at an aircraft without checking for the available flight plans. Also, as far as I know, nobody ever reported that the transponder on the aircraft did not work and, if so, then that means that the Ukie air defense crew should have been receiving a clear signal identifying the aircraft. Let me add here that you can purchase special receivers and antennas which can receive transponder signals on the market and that they are comparatively cheap (1000 bucks range I think). Lastly, but still an option, a Ukie air defense operator could have simply lifted the phone, called the ATC and asked who such and such aircraft was. And even without that: when you see an aircraft flying right around 550 knots at 10'000m in a straight line in a civilian air traffic corridor, you can kinda guess that this is not a military aircraft on a bombing run. So regardless of the state of disrepair of the Ukie air defense forces, there is just no way that they could have mistaken this airliner for a Russian military jet flying on a combat mission. Oh, and did I mention MH17 was flying on west to east course, not from Russia, but towards Russia? Bottom line here for me is this: there is no way the Ukies could have shot down this aircraft by mistake...
Cui bono?
Well here at least the reply is unambiguous: only the junta in Kiev could have benefited from this tragedy. For the Russians and the Novorussians, this is something between a real pain and a disaster. Just when the Novorussians were winning without any overt help from Moscow and just when Moscow was gradually successful in denouncing the human costs of Poroshenko's murderous policies - suddenly the entire planet focuses just on one downed aircraft and the imperial corporate media blames it all on Russia. As for Poroshenko, this disaster is God-sent: not only has everybody forgotten that much promised "surprise" turned out to be a disaster, he can now kill scores of Novorussians with no risks of that being reported in the corporate media. Not only that, but that gives the Ukies a golden excuse to ask for ""protection" from their "aggressive and threatening neighbor". Again, the only party who can benefit from this disaster is the junta. So, in summary, we have this list of candidates:
1) A deliberate or mistaken Russian attack: superlatively unlikely
2) A mistaken Ukrainian attack: most unlikely
3) A deliberate Ukrainian attack: most likely
4) A mistaken Novorussian attack: possible
5) A deliberate Novorussian attack: most unlikely
I don't know about you, but to me #3 is the one blinking red.
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